Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:55PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 6:43 AM EDT (10:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:18PMMoonset 2:40AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202104211515;;885375 Fzus51 Kbuf 210843 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 443 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-211515- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 443 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through Friday morning...
Today..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow through early afternoon, then a chance of snow late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then lake effect snow and rain showers likely overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Lake effect snow showers with lake effect rain showers likely in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 9 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Showers likely Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 210841 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 441 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A complex low pressure system will bring a wide array of precipitation to the region today. Rain showers will change to snow and sleet across central NY . and scattered thunderstorms are possible in northeast PA. Conditions turn much colder and windy with scattered lake effect snow showers across central NY later tonight into Thursday. Dry and seasonably mild weather returns to the region Friday as high pressure builds in.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. 400 am update . Main forecast challenge in the near term remains focused on the complex weather system that will impact the region with a combination of winter weather today through Thursday and a brief period of convective showers and storms later this morning and into the afternoon. Will also be focused on the well-below average temperatures and gusty nw winds tonight.

An unseasonably cold upper level trough over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes is tracking to the east today with a series of embedded short waves rotating around the base of the trough. The dominant wave is currently pushing through the southern Great Lakes this morning and is expected to work in tandem with a deepening surface low over the mid Atlantic. The air mass out ahead of the surface low will become unstable, but there is still some uncertainty with regard to the track of the low and how much/long the axis of instability will be situated across the far southeastern sections of our forecast area. The latest model trends continue a slight eastward shift in the track . which keeps only a small portion of the Poconos and the southern Catskills under a threat of thunderstorms. The timeframe of greatest concern for small hail and gusty winds with these storms is from the late morning through the afternoon today. The primary threat from these storm is still expected to be damaging winds.

Rain showers with a few embedded sleet pellets are lifting n/ne across the region this morning, mainly forced by a strong baroclinic zone that has set up ne to sw over the interior Northeast US. Steep mid level lapse rates are enhancing some of these showers and also triggering some lightning with a few of the convective cells. These showers should continue to stream across the region this morning on the warm side of the front. The showers will eventually shift to the east as the cold air on the western edge of the system begins to push in.

The threat for accumulating snow will arrive later this morning on the western back edge of the storm system as it wraps up and continues tracking to the e/ne. A deep layer of strong f-gen within a relatively moist air mass will allow for period of enhanced precipitation, starting over western NY this morning and transitioning through the region by the afternoon in the form of a wintry mix of rain, snow, sleet and possibly very light freezing rain. The exact timing, location and duration of the precip type will be very challenging if not impossible to nail down. However, at this time it appears the most favorable area to see accumulating snow and sleet today will be over the higher terrain in Steuben County, the hills south of Syracuse and far northern Oneida County. These locations could see 2 to 4 inches before noon. Lower elevation locations will have a hard time accumulating snow due to a slightly warmer sfc/near-sfc layer . even though it will likely be snowing through the morning. The snow should mix in some rain or change to all rain by the afternoon, but also begin to taper off.

The swath of wintry mix will be sliding to the east through the morning and afternoon with the cold air advection, and changing the rain to the east over to snow as it moves in. Most locations east of a line from Elmira to Utica will see generally less than an inch of snow accumulation, but a potentially a plethora of p-types through the day that should mostly melt on contact with the warm surface. NY State Mesonet locations across the region still showing 5 cm temperatures around 42 to 50 deg F. Road surface temperatures are currently in the low to mid 40s in central NY.

Some of the snow on the back side of the system in the afternoon may mix with or change to drizzle and/or freezing drizzle as the column loses ice crystals aloft. Otherwise, additional precipitation should be minimal during the evening hours before the lake enhanced snow starts to develop around midnight. A punch of 850mb temps around -9 to -11 deg C will push across Lake Ontario into central NY tonight and trigger some lake enhanced snow showers. Could end up being a terrible night for travel conditions as snow showers intensify for at least a brief period of time tonight, and then combine with very cold overnight low temperatures in the 20s and northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph. Could see a couple inches of accumulation into portions of central NY, from the eastern Finger Lakes over to the western Catskills.

Temperatures warm quickly into the 30s Thursday morning and winds back to the west, which will allow the lake enhanced snow showers to gradually taper off. There is a secondary s/w that is expected to drop in from the north on Thursday, but it will be moving into a very dry and cold air mass, so may just be an enhancement of cloud cover and not much additional precip. Either way, minimal additional snow accumulation is expected on Thursday, but winds will remain gusty out of the NW through the day. Temperatures will recover back into the mid 30s to lower 40s by the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure will start to build into the region Thursday night leading to additional clearing. The more reliable RGEM with lake effect precipitation still holds on to some clouds and spotty rain and snow showers across central NY in the evening. With that said, have maintained the possibility despite the model blend wanting to end any precipitation chances by sunset. Northwest winds on the backside of the departing low will continue to advect colder air into the region with lows Thursday night around or a few degrees below freezing. Wind gusts Thursday night still have the potential to be over 20 mph.

High pressure on Friday is expected to lead to a a mostly sunny day with a quick rebound in temperatures well into the 50's if not 60 for most of the region. A strong pressure gradient is expected to result in another gusty day with top wind gusts around 25 mph. Conditions look favorable for mixing and with dry air in place RH values are currently forecasted at 25-30% Friday afternoon in northeast PA. Depending on fuel moisture levels, favorable fire weather spread conditions may occur.

Also, A favorable night for radiational cooling with winds finally starting to decrease and clear skies Friday night. As a result, lows should fall back into the 30's once again. High pressure begins to depart the area on Saturday as high clouds roll in ahead of the next system. Fairly good ensemble agreement at this time to hold off the bulk of rain with the next system till Saturday night. Temperatures continue to trend warmer Saturday back into the 60's.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Low pressure is expected to track from the Tennessee valley northeast up the east coast Saturday night and Sunday with a secondary cold front moving in from the Great Lakes. Moisture and lift look sufficient ahead of these features to develop several rounds of rainfall. Currently ensemble means from the various models show around half an inch of rainfall which would not be enough to create significant hydrological issues. The rain though should keep the temperatures down in the 40's and 50's through Sunday.

Gradual clearing Sunday night as the low pressure system departs and high pressure builds into the area by Monday. This high pressure looks to become firmly established with a strong mid level ridge in place as well into the middle of next week. Also, warm air advection on the backside of the high should result in a gradual warming trend with highs getting into the 60's and 70's. Lows will be slower to respond but with dry weather a wide diurnal spread is anticipated with 30's and 40's. Mixing may become more of a concern as we get closer which usually causes for busts of modeled RH values in the afternoon. Given the rain Sunday, it would take fuels some time to dry out in terms of any fire spread concerns due to weather.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Flight conditions will fluctuate between VFR and IFR in rain showers mixing with sleet early this morning, but restrictions should be limited to an hour or less through 12Z. After 12Z a more robust area of precipitation moves in from the west and brings a better chance of a wintry mix to all terminals for a period of time between 12Z and approximately 18Z. By the afternoon the bulk of the significant precip will be moving east of the area . along with a line of convective rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two around KAVP and to the east.

Rain will likely mix in at times this afternoon as the precip tapers off across central NY and surface temperatures level out above freezing. Winds also become gusty later this morning and continue through the afternoon before diminishing back to around 10 kt or less after 00Z.

An area of lake enhanced snow will begin to move in from the north just before 06Z Thu which may impact KSYR, KITH, KRME and possibly KELM and KBGM as well, but with lesser confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday night through Thursday evening . Gusty northwest winds at all terminals and scattered lake effect snow showers/associated restrictions, mainly for the NY terminals.

Late Thursday night through Saturday . Mainly VFR expected

Saturday night . A system brings rain and deteriorating conditions.

Sunday . Rain begins to gradually move out of the area.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJT NEAR TERM . BJT SHORT TERM . MWG LONG TERM . MWG AVIATION . BTL/BJT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi56 min N 15 G 18 34°F 1011.3 hPa31°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi44 min NNE 9.9 G 14 33°F 1012.2 hPa (-1.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi56 min 33°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi50 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast37°F29°F73%1010.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi50 minNNW 54.00 miLight Snow34°F28°F79%1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSE3SW4W7W6SW65NW9
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2 days agoSW6SW6W8W11W6W6W8W10
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W17W11W11W5CalmCalmNW3S4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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