Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 011714 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 114 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. Scattered lake effect rain showers will continue across upstate New York today. A storm will bring additional shower activity to the entire region Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Only minor changes to the forecast with noontime update and discussion below is on track.

With the mid morning update, Skies were adjusted upward across the Southern Tier of NY and the Finger Lakes. These clouds are streaming in off the Great Lakes.

Persistent west-northwest flow over the lakes will continue to generate scattered showers due to lake-induced instability this afternoon. Shower activity will be mainly confined to the western and northern fringes of our NY forecast area. Otherwise, expect mainly sunny skies today with temperatures in the middle 60s.

Skies will remain mostly clear in advance of a weak storm system Thursday night. Temperatures will drop into the middle 40s.

A weak storm system will throw scattered rain showers across NY and PA on Friday as an upper level trough digs through the Great Lakes. QPF values will generally be under a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will reach the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Surface ridge builds into the region on Saturday, however with upper trough over head and westerly flow across the lakes, some showers will be possible, mostly downwind of Lake Ontario. Away from the lakes, moisture is very limited in the low levels and the best chance for showers will be north of the NY Thruway corridor. Shower activity will diminish Saturday night and into Sunday as surface high pressure passes overhead and then heads east into New England. An open wave pushes NE across the Ohio Valley and into southwestern PA by Sunday afternoon. Although most of the shower activity with this wave should hold off until Sunday night, we will likely see an increase in clouds, and possibly a few showers entering our western zones by 0Z Monday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Models are now in much better agreement for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Open wave of low pressure passes the region Sunday night through Monday morning and this will be our greatest shot at some showers. The Euro has actually trended more towards the GFS solution for Monday into Tuesday, with coastal low never really getting its act together before heading harmlessly out to sea Monday night. However, the pattern looks to remain active, as another highly amplified upper trough starts to dig into the Northeast U.S. mid week with another chance for showers and then much cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

All sites but KELM: VFR throughout the TAF period. Scattered to Cloud broken decks between 5,000 and 15,000 feet. Isolated showers can not be ruled out from 06-15Z Friday at all TAF sites. However, any light precipitation is not expected to create restrictions. A few lingering wind gust around 15 knots are anticipated through about 20Z today from the southwest.

For KELM: Above section does apply. However, a strong signal is present with our data indicating the potential for IFR or even LIFR restrictions with fog from roughly 09-13Z. However, the higher cloud deck may limit fog formation. Given uncertainty opted to add a IFR TEMPO group for this TAF.

Outlook .

Friday afternoon through Saturday . Mainly VFR. A few Lake effect showers Friday afternoon can not be ruled out at KSYR, KITH, KELM and KBGM.

Saturday night and Sunday . mainly VFR. Possible early morning fog especially ELM.

Sunday night through Tuesday . Restrictions possible in showers, mainly at AVP Monday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . DJP NEAR TERM . DJP/MWG SHORT TERM . MPK LONG TERM . MPK AVIATION . MWG

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	31 mi	54 min	W 12 G 19	61°F			1011.7 hPa	49°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	79 mi	24 min	SW 12 G 19	62°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	80 mi	54 min		64°F			1010.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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SW12 G21

SW11 G27

SW9 G15

W8 G13

S4 G7

SW5 G11

SE11 G16

SW11 G17

SW9 G17

SW10 G15

S11 G17

S9 G12

S8 G11

S9 G12

S10 G14

S8

SW7 G10

S9 G12

SW10 G15

SW12 G17

W17 G23

W13 G25

W17 G23

W17 G24

1 day ago

SE9

SE9

SE10 G14

SE11 G15

SE9 G12

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SE5 G8

SE5 G8

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NW17 G22

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SW9 G13

SW10 G13

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SW15 G21

2 days ago

S11 G17

S10 G15

S9

S10 G15

SE8 G13

SE4

SE10 G13

SE14 G18

SE14 G22

S11 G17

SE14 G18

SE12 G16

SE11 G16

SE8 G13

S11 G16

W22

W21 G26

W12 G16

SW5 G8

SW4 G11

S6 G10

S8

SE8 G11

S7

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	1 mi	30 min	WSW 11	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	64°F	45°F	50%	1011.4 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	21 mi	30 min	W 10	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	65°F	46°F	51%	1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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SW11

SW13 G17

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S9 G16

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S11 G18

S14 G20

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W14 G21

W12 G16

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1 day ago

SE6

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Calm

N3

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SW13 G19

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W19 G26

SW13 G25

2 days ago

S10

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S12 G18

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SE7

S14

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S11 G20

SE11 G15

S12

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S14 G22

SE12 G18

SE12

S9

NW13

NW10

NW10 G18

NW6

W7

W5

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Calm

SE4

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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