Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 060956 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 456 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A clipper system will pass through today, bringing accumulating snow to portions of Central New York. A mix of rain and snow is expected from the Southern Tier and southward into Northeast Pennsylvania. Then lake effect snow is expected southeast of Lake Ontario tonight into early Saturday. Mainly dry weather is expected this weekend, followed by rain to start the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

A clipper system will bring accumulating snow to portions of the area today, especially across Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties. This will be followed by lake effect snow showers this evening and tonight, which will once again mainly affect these same three counties, along with Cayuga county.

Model guidance continues to indicate that today's clipper system will track further north than originally expected yesterday; generally from the Finger Lakes to the Syracuse area to the western Mohawk Valley. As a result, most of the accumulating snow will be across these areas, with the highest totals north of the track (as is usual with clipper systems). Generally 2-4 inches of snow is expected today in these counties. After collaboration with neighboring offices, we opted to not issue a Winter Weather Advisory for these areas, since forecast snowfall amounts are just below criteria as well as the fact that temperatures will likely be just above freezing. The marginal temperatures along with the fact that this will be occurring during the daylight hours should limit snow from accumulating much on paved surfaces, although this is certainly still possible during brief heavier bursts of snow.

Due to the further north track, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 30s south of the above mentioned counties, with even some lower 40s expected in portions of the Wyoming Valley in Northeast PA. As a result, after initially starting as some snow this morning, rain will quickly mix in and even completely change over in many spots by the late morning/early afternoon, especially for the Southern Tier southward into Northeast PA. That being said, the majority of the QPF will remain in Central New York and most of Northeast PA will likely remain mostly dry today with just a few spotty showers expected. Expecting 1-2 inches of snow across portions of Seneca, Cayuga, Cortland, Chenango, Otsego, and northeastern Delaware counties, with less than inch of snow expected south of these counties. Little to no snow accumulation expected for our far southern counties in NEPA (Wyoming, Luzerne, Lackawanna, southern Wayne, and Pike counties).

The clipper system quickly moves east of the area by the early evening hours, bringing an end to the steadier precipitation across New York. However, lake effect snow develops southeast of Lake Ontario soon afterwards as a cold Arctic airmass blasts in from the northwest behind the clipper. Right now, expecting the most persistent bands to occur across portions of Onondaga, Cayuga, Madison, and southwestern Oneida counties, where an additional 2-4 inches of snow is expected. With some upstream connection from Georgian Bay, amounts could be locally higher. Should higher amounts appear more likely during upcoming forecast package cycles, advisories may be needed. Due to lack of confidence in this occurring right now, opted to not issue any advisories for now with collaboration from neighboring offices. Lows tonight will likely drop to the teens to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. 340 AM Update . Other than narrow streamers of lake effect snow lingering southeast of Lake Ontario Saturday morning to midday, a quiet weekend is expected.

Model consensus and especially the Canadian regional model which performs well in lake effect, are suggesting that snow showers will still be streaming southeast of Lake Ontario through Saturday morning. This is likely due to some upstream contribution from Georgian Bay. Forecast has been adjusted to include an additional half inch to inch or so of accumulation along a stripe roughly along Auburn-Skaneateles southeast through Cortland-Tully to Pharsalia-Norwich-Oxford-Sidney and even to about Walton. However, high pressure will be building in as the day carries on, and outside of the lake effect streamers it will simply be a quiet cold day for our region. Clouds will also gradually decrease in the afternoon, especially Twin Tiers southward. Highs will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s, with a chilly west-northwest wind subsiding later in the day.

High pressure and a mostly clear sky will ensure good radiational cooling which will cause temperatures to plummet into the teens Saturday night; even some single digits for a few of the typically colder spots east of I-81.

Stronger warm air advection will occur Sunday, courtesy of increasing return flow on the back side of the departing high. Some clouds will begin to move in aloft, thickening through the afternoon. With stable atmospheric profiles, most of the warming at least for Sunday will be aloft, yet at least some moderation will make its way to the surface. Highs will be mainly in the 30s; a few lower elevation spots could get around 40. More significant warming will wait until just after the weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. 340 AM Update . Pattern quickly reverts to an active one as we head into next week, including a large warm-to-cold swing in temperatures. Combined rain and snowmelt could also pose a risk for elevated streamflows Late Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures are figured to initially be upper 20s-mid 30s Sunday evening, but strong warm air advection and thickening clouds should cause readings to rise above freezing areawide by dawn Monday. Models are generally trending later for the start of precipitation with the next system to mainly Monday, except the NAM brings it in pretty quickly Sunday night. This will need to be monitored in upcoming model runs since if it arrives early enough, a wintry mix could occur especially east of I-81. For now, the more likely outcome is for plain rain to develop on Monday as temperatures surge well above freezing. Highs are expected to be 40s areawide; lowest elevations of Northeast PA could even get around 50.

Backing out to the big picture, for Sunday night through Tuesday evening a strong and deep southwest flow will exist throughout most of the eastern United States. This will increasingly bring moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico as well. The southwest flow is likely to be riddles with several disturbances which will cause waves of rain to move through our area. There is some possibility of total rain amounts exceeding an inch, especially towards Poconos-Catskills where orographic enhancement could occur. This along with snowmelt will undoubtedly cause rises in streams and rivers late Monday through Tuesday. The question is, by how much. Some of the river ensembles are suggesting a few points getting around action stage. We will continue to monitor trends over the weekend, to keep tabs if flooding potential could increase.

Tuesday itself is likely to start off very mild, in the 40s to near 50, but sometime during the day a deep low traveling roughly down the Saint Lawrence Seaway will drag a surface cold front through the area. This will mark the beginning of strong cold air advection of a very cold air mass. If a precipitation shield persists for a time behind the front, we may see a transition from rain to snow Tuesday night.

Operational runs of the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian-NH all agree on 1000-500mb thicknesses diving below 510 decameters for most if not all of the area during the Wednesday-Thursday time period. Thus generally speaking we can anticipate highs of 20s- near 30 and lows to single digits-teens. Lake effect snow will also likely be involved, though specific areas and amounts will need to be figured out in coming days.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Mainly VFR conditions with some occasional MVFR ceilings are expected early this morning, before conditions go downhill ahead of the upcoming clipper system. Snow will come in from the northwest starting at 10z at KSYR. Conditions drop to MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys by 14z. IFR cigs likely at times midday into the afternoon.

KELM will be a little better with MVFR in snow 11z up to 17z then a mix of rain and snow. IFR will be brief if any due to vsbys in snow.

KAVP likely remain VFR, aside from occasional MVFR ceilings early this morning. They may only get some flurries or light rain showers midday and afternoon.

After the clipper departs the area this evening, lake effect snow is expected southeast of Lake Ontario, which may bring associated restrictions at KRME and especially KSYR, potentially even extending to KITH-KBGM at times.

Southwest winds at 10 kts increase midday with gusts. Late afternoon a shift to the northwest is expected as the clipper passes. Winds likely remain gusty before diminishing a bit during the evening hours.

Outlook .

Saturday through Sunday evening . VFR.

Monday and Tuesday . Restrictions likely with a broad area of rain spreading through the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJG NEAR TERM . BJG SHORT TERM . MDP LONG TERM . MDP AVIATION . BJG/TAC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	31 mi	50 min	S 5.1 G 7				1016.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	79 mi	68 min	S 2.9 G 5.1	32°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	80 mi	62 min		32°F			1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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W30 G37

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NW23 G30

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W28 G36

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N13 G18

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NW12 G19

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S7 G13

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S9 G12

S8

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	1 mi	74 min	SW 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	32°F	23°F	69%	1017.4 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	21 mi	74 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	30°F	21°F	72%	1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (5,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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