Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Webster, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday August 24, 2019 5:25 PM EDT (21:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:55PMMoonset 2:16PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 126 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
This afternoon..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 71 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201908242115;;143519 FZUS51 KBUF 241726 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 126 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-242115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Webster, NY
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location: 43.22, -77.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241959
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
359 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure across southern canada will expand across the great
lakes region through Sunday, and slowly move off new england on
Monday. There will be some clouds and patchy valley fog each
morning, but otherwise this high will provide a dry pattern which
will last through Monday night. The next chance of rain along with
warmer weather won't return until next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Near term through Sunday
An upper level low continues to move east toward the new england
coast while an amplified ridge moves into the great lakes.

Underneath this ridge is a corresponding area of expansive surface
high pressure. But, there's also a thin area of moisture trapped
near an inversion ~6500' with temperatures near 2c (and near 5c just
below that at 850 mb) per latest amdar. This, together with a nne
flow over the relatively warm lakes, continues to produce abundant
stratocumulus inland from the lakes this afternoon from strong
afternoon insolation.

With a lowering Sun angle late this afternoon, expect some of this
to thin out this evening with a period of clear skies. However,
with peak subsidence overnight as the surface high pressure moves
overhead, there may be both valley fog and some low stratus cloud
formation as well, at least over the higher terrain, which will trap
the settling thin but moist airmass. Otherwise, expect a quiet night
with persistence low temperatures. A few outliers last night east
of lake ontario dipped into the upper 30s, and while this will again
be possible tonight, most other areas should be in the 40s (inland)
to low 50s (lake plains). Any areas that end up with a low stratus
deck may end up with higher than currently forecast lows.

Sunday should feature another day with mixed Sun and clouds, but
with the low level flow aloft becoming more ese, a little less cloud
cover is expected without a lake contribution. However, that strong
inversion will still be in place, and with another day of abundant
insolation from a dry airmass aloft without any cirrus, expect at
least partly cloudy skies for much of the afternoon, although the
immediate shorelines will be a battle ground between lake breezes
and the ese flow aloft. At least it should be sunny over the lakes.

By the end of the day, some cirrus should start to move in from the
sw, but it should be rather thin.

Meanwhile, temperatures aloft have bottomed out, and will be on the
rise for the next 24hrs (and into next week). Thus expect afternoon
temperatures to be about 10f higher than persistence - generally in
the mid to upper 70s.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
High pressure will remain nearly stationary across northern new
england and the canadian maritimes into early next week. A mid-level
ridge will build across the region Sunday night and Monday
maintaining dry conditions across the region. The ridge flattens out
Monday night and moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold
front across the ohio valley. The surface high will be anchored
across new england during this time and continue with dry conditions
across the region.

There will be hesitation as the high departs Tuesday and while the
front nears. An initial warm front will bring a few stray showers
near lake ontario Tuesday, and a stray lake breeze shower t-storm
may develop across the southern tier. Otherwise Tuesday will be dry
with a slight uptick in humidity. The main cold front will be on the
doorstep of western ny by Wednesday morning. The 12z GFS slowed the
progression of the front and since the low is occluding to the
northwest, cut back the chance for showers and any thunderstorms
Tuesday night until late in the night.

Temperatures will slowly climb Monday and Tuesday as warm air
advection and a southeast flow increases across western and north
central ny. High temperatures will be in the upper 70's to low 80's
both days however Tuesday will feel more humid with dewpoints
climbing into the mid 60's. Low temperatures will also climb with
upper 50's Sunday night and Monday night and the low to mid 60's
Tuesday night.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Models have come into better agreement with a cold front passing
across the region Wednesday, this as a tropical system and its
associated upstream ridge move farther out to sea. Instability along
the front is marginal for thunder, while a high pwat content to the
airmass (pwats near 1.75 inches) and a deepening warm cloud layer
may encourage heavy downpours.

Behind this front a cooler airmass will flow over the region. Under
an upper level trough, steep mid level lapse rates and lingering
moisture will allow skies to become mostly cloudy through the
afternoon. As the cold air deepens, with 850 hpa temperatures
falling into the upper single digits celsius there may be some lake
enhanced rain showers later Wednesday night and through Thursday
night. Will have low chance pops near the lakes for this activity,
as it may not be cold enough unstable enough to encourage a more
widespread lake effect rain event.

Another weak cold front will cross our region Friday night. Better
lift will be found along lake ontario and points eastward. This will
return a chance for rain showers to close out the week.

Temperatures will not stray much from normal... With highs in the 70s
and lows in the mid to upper 50s through this period.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
High pressure will build across the great lakes region through
tonight, with mainlyVFR flight conditions through the evening. But
with a thin but abundant area of moisture trapped below a 6500'
inversion settling overnight, some of this may end up as a low
stratus deck - ifr or MVFR, possibly focused over the southern tier
overnight. Typical valley locations that don't see this should see
fog.

Vfr conditions will return on Sunday as surface high pressure
continues to move slowly to the east.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than
southern tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions each late
night and morning.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR with some
short periods of MVFR from showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Relatively light and variable winds with corresponding light wave
action are expected into Monday as surface high pressure moves
slowly east across the region.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel zaff
near term... Zaff
short term... Hsk thomas
long term... Thomas
aviation... Zaff
marine... Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 10 mi86 min ENE 6 G 8 67°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 11 mi62 min 67°F 1024 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 28 mi46 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 72°F1024.5 hPa54°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 48 mi86 min E 3.9 G 7.8 66°F 73°F1 ft1024.6 hPa (-0.5)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 51 mi62 min NNE 8.9 G 12 67°F 1024.1 hPa54°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY15 mi32 minNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F52°F55%1025.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N9N5NW3NW3NW4NW4CalmN4NE6N3CalmCalmNW3N4NE10NE8NE9NE8NE6N9NE9
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1 day agoNW11W7W4W4W3SW3SW4SW4SW4SW4W4SW4SW3CalmCalmN7N7NE9NE8N8NE11N8
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2 days agoW8SW12W7W9SW7SW8SW9SW6SW8W7NW7NW8NW8W6W5W6NW8W7W9W10W10W8W10W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.