Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Webster, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 101858 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 258 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbance will produce a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but the vast majority of the time will be rain free. An approaching weak cold front will then bring some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warmth and humidity will continue through Tuesday before the cold front ushers in less humid air mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The vast majority of the region will be hot and rain-free this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s from the Genesee Valley to Central NY. A convectively augmented shortwave will pass north of Lake Ontario this afternoon. This combined with moderate diurnal instability and lake breeze boundaries will support a few showers and thunderstorms. These will be most widespread across the St Lawrence Valley, but also will develop across the Western Finger Lakes and even across Niagara County along a lake breeze convergence boundary.

Any widely scattered showers and storms will end this evening with the loss of daytime heating. This will leave dry weather and partly cloudy to mainly clear skies overnight. A very warm airmass and light breeze will keep temperatures very mild. Expect lows in the lower 70s on the lake plains, and mid 60s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County. The breeze will likely prevent fog formation despite the muggy airmass.

A weak mid level trough and associated weak cold front will approach and eventually move through the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. There may be a few showers and storms with a mid-level shortwave across Western New York Tuesday morning, but after this the lake breeze will become better established which should keep areas northeast of the lakes (Buffalo/Watertown) dry during the afternoon. Mesoscale guidance develops showers and storms along a pre-frontal trough axis Tuesday afternoon with this area moving east through the evening. There may be another round of scattered showers/storms with the cold front which will move across the area Tuesday night.

PWAT values climb to around 1.75 inches, so any storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Relatively weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates will limit the severe weather risk. This said, a few strong to severe pulse storms cannot completely be ruled out.

Tuesday will be another hot and humid day, with highs in the mid 80s across western NY and around 90 from the Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes region eastward at lower elevations. Expect slightly lower dew points Tuesday, with heat index values in the lower 90s from the Genesee Valley to the northern Finger Lakes and Oswego County.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. The surface front will be south of the area Wednesday morning helping to clear any residual showers. Front may still be close enough for an isolated afternoon showers/storm close to the New York/Pennsylvania line, but for the most part it will be dry Wednesday, and noticeably less humid as surface dewpoints drop back down into the 50s to lower 60s.

Zonal flow aloft exhibits more of a short wave ridge over the Great Lakes in the latest 12Z model package which maintains stronger surface high pressure across the region during the remainder of the period. This results in dry weather with typical mid August temperatures.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Surface front remains just to our south Friday as high pressure remains in control of the weather across the bulk of the area. This will provide dry weather for most of the region, however a few showers/storms cannot be ruled out across the Southern Tier, especially closer to the NY/PA line.

By Saturday, surface high pressure will shift northeast to Quebec/New England allowing moisture return to the area. This will keep daily chances of showers and thunderstorms during the weekend with coverage best during the afternoon and early evening. A cold front crossing the area Monday will lead to additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will run above average through most of the period with highs mostly in the mid 80s at lower elevations each day, with lows in the 60s. Cooler weather expected by Monday.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mainly VFR flight conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. The exception will be in any showers and thunderstorms. These will be possible through 23Z today, and again after 13Z Tuesday morning. Coverage will be scattered with any impact expected to last an hour or less at any one location. Wind should be strong enough tonight to prevent fog formation despite the muggy airmass.

Outlook .

Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night . Scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR prevailing, with brief MVFR/IFR possible in storms. Wednesday and Thursday . Mainly VFR. Friday and Saturday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE. Modest southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots this afternoon will produce some choppy wave action. Expect similar conditions again Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Light winds are then expected on Lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday through Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ003>006-013- 014. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/JM SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . TMA AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	10 mi	150 min	Calm G 2.9	80°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	11 mi	60 min		82°F			1014.8 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY	28 mi	40 min	W 3.9 G 5.8	78°F	73°F	1 ft	1014.3 hPa	75°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt	48 mi	90 min	SW 5.8 G 7.8	77°F	77°F	1 ft	1014.8 hPa (-1.0)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	51 mi	60 min	W 6 G 8.9	82°F			1015.2 hPa	70°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY	15 mi	36 min	W 12 G 18	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	89°F	66°F	48%	1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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