Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:37PM Sunday March 29, 2020 2:43 PM EDT (18:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:46AMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 914 Am Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Scattered rain showers late this morning, then rain showers and scattered Thunderstorms this afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds this afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:202003292115;;253475 FZUS51 KBUF 291314 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 914 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-292115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 291649 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1249 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will sweep east across the area this afternoon and early evening, with a line of showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms may produce isolated damaging winds, especially across Western NY. Colder air will move back into the region tonight and Monday with occasional showers, which may mix with a little wet snow Monday night. A few widely scattered showers cannot be ruled out Tuesday and Tuesday night, then drier and warmer weather will return late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Radar imagery showing most of the steady warm advection forced rain over the eastern Lake Ontario region early this afternoon. This rain will continue to move northeast and away from our region. Meanwhile, a few widely scattered showers are found across Western NY. Visible satellite imagery showing clouds thinning over and just upstream of Western NY. The brief period of thinner clouds will allow for some diurnal heating, which will combine with warm/moist advection to support modest destabilization across Western NY just ahead of a pre- frontal trough.

Latest high-res model guidance suggests a broken band of convection will develop over or just west of Western NY early this afternoon along the pre-frontal trough. This line of convection will then sweep east across the area through the remainder of the afternoon. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk of severe weather for Western NY, and this seems reasonable given recent model and observational trends. Strong shear will be in place, with the main uncertainty revolving around sufficient instability developing. In this strongly forced environment it will not take much, just 500-800J/kg of MLCAPE would be sufficient. Veering wind profiles become largely unidirectional by the time the convective line gets here, so the main risk will be isolated damaging winds with any short line segments that develop.

By late afternoon or early evening the convective line will move into the western Finger Lakes and points southeast of Lake Ontario. The warm sector will be narrowing by this time as the cold front begins to catch up to the warm front. Eventually the convective line will run out of surface based instability, resulting in a rapid weakening with any remaining convective elements becoming elevated and rooted above the boundary layer, ending the convective wind risk.

In addition, it will become rather windy this afternoon and evening. A southerly low level jet in excess of 50 knots will work across the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. This will produce a brief period of enhanced downslope winds along the northward facing slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau, with gusts of 45 mph possible. Gusty southwest winds will also develop across western New York during the afternoon and evening with the approach of the surface cold front, with the strongest synoptic scale winds starting after the potential convective line crosses the area. Latest point soundings suggest lapse rates may steepen sufficiently to allow for boundary layer mixing for just a few hours during the late afternoon and early evening, when winds may gust to 50 mph. With this in mind, issued a Wind Advisory for the Niagara Frontier, where the greatest wind potential will be found. It will remain windy overnight, especially northeast of Lake Erie, with wind gusts of 30-40 mph once the stronger early evening winds diminish.

Expect temperatures to soar briefly during the early to mid afternoon, with highs well into the 60s for most areas, with lower 70s a possibility across western New York away from the cooling influences of the lakes. The eastern Lake Ontario region will see highs in the 55-60 degree range.

The cold front will clear the eastern Lake Ontario region early this evening, with any lingering showers and thunderstorms moving east of the area. A few scattered showers may continue through the evening behind the cold front. Later tonight and Monday showers will increase in coverage as deep wrap around moisture and forcing arrive from the closed upper level low. The system will become nearly vertically stacked by early Monday morning, with the low tracking slowly east across southern Ontario to near the Thousand Islands region by Monday evening. The best coverage of showers will be found east of Lakes Erie and Ontario as limited lake instability develops, and more importantly upslope flow increases. Temperatures will be much cooler Monday, with highs in the mid 40s at lower elevations and around 40 across higher terrain.

Showers will continue Monday night in moist/cyclonic flow as the vertically stacked low moves ESE across New England. Boundary layer temperatures will become cool enough Monday night to support some wet snow mixing in across higher terrain at first, and possibly across lower elevations after midnight. There may be some very minor, slushy accumulations on the hills. Lows will reach the mid to upper 30s at lower elevations, and lower 30s on the hills.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An upper level low off the New England coast will gradually merge with an approaching shortwave and form a broad and weak low across New England and the lower Great Lakes. Our region will mainly be underneath this feature, and the weak flow aloft associated with this system will not provide much in the way of dynamic lift. It will maintain mainly cool and cloudy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday since lots of low level moisture will remain locked in place. 850 mb temperatures will average -3c to -6c during the period, which will hold daytime highs in the lower to mid 40s on Tuesday. There also may be some showers or drizzle Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly due to the low level moisture and modest upsloping. A few wet snowflakes may be mixed in across higher terrain. Wednesday will be slightly warmer since there will be a few breaks of sun late in the day as a surface ridge begins to build in from central Canada.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. There is good model agreement that a mainly dry pattern will develop late next week. A broad upper level low is forecast to split into two, but this trough axis will remain to our north and east. Meanwhile, an elongated area of surface high pressure will gradually build into our region from the west on Thursday and Friday. This will result in dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures Thursday and Friday.

An upper level ridge axis across our region Friday night will very gradually make its way eastward. Eventually, a weak cold front associated with low pressure tracking into northern Ontario province will move across the area, but there is very poor model agreement timing this frontal passage. The 06Z GFS is notably faster than the 00Z ECMWF (by around 36 hours) with the 00Z GEM roughly a compromise. Forecast uses consensus timing which brings the front through late Saturday. Either way, the front is quite weak, with only a small chance of showers and slightly cooler weather behind it. Highs over the weekend will generally be in the 50s, with 60 degrees possible on Saturday if the slower frontal timing verifies.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Steady rain ahead of a warm front east of Lake Ontario will continue to move northeast and out of the area, with MVFR CIGS/VSBY improving through mid afternoon. Meanwhile, a broken line of convection will develop across Western NY early this afternoon, then sweep east across the rest of the area through the mid to late afternoon, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region by early evening. The heavier showers will produce brief MVFR/IFR conditions. A few thunderstorms will also develop along this line, with thunder only lasting for an hour or less at any one location given the narrow, fast moving line. A few storms may contain strong, gusty winds.

Outside of the storms, it will also turn quite windy this afternoon and early evening to the north of the Tug Hill Plateau, and also across the Niagara Frontier with gusts of 35-40 knots for a few hours. This includes KBUF, KIAG, and KART.

Following the convective line, there will be a lull in precipitation through the first half of tonight with just a few scattered showers. More widespread showers will develop again late tonight and continue through Monday with areas of MVFR VSBY in the steadier showers. CIGS will drop to MVFR at lower elevations, and IFR across higher terrain.

Outlook .

Tuesday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Thursday through Friday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Southeast winds will become southwest later this afternoon and evening behind a cold front that will sweep east across the region. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue areawide through the rest of the afternoon and first half of tonight as the cold front crosses the region. The moderate southwesterlies will continue on Lake Erie through Monday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions lasting through Monday evening. Winds will diminish late tonight and Monday on Lake Ontario, although it will still be choppy even if winds and waves drop below Small Craft criteria.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall so far have been in line with forecasts, with reports of 0.75"-1.0" for the Southern Tier and 0.25"-0.50" elsewhere so far. The convective line this afternoon will produce a brief period of heavy rain, but will be moving too fast to add more than another 0.25"-0.50" at most.

These rainfall amounts will result in some within-bank rises on area rivers and creeks, but no flooding is expected. The rain has been spaced out enough, with breaks between batches of rain, to prevent any real flooding in poor drainage areas and small streams.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001-002- 010>012-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . Apffel LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock HYDROLOGY . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi61 min 68°F 1000.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi43 min S 16 G 23 67°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi43 min W 8 G 9.9 1000 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi49 minSSW 18 G 2710.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy67°F53°F61%1001.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE6NE7NE8NE10NE9NE5E3SE3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E5E6SE7SE8SE5S5E8SE4E10
2 days agoW18
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W12W6NW10NW8NW10NW7N8NW7NW4NE9NE7NE6NE6N3NE4NE4N74335

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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