Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 4:39PM Saturday December 7, 2019 7:12 AM EST (12:12 UTC) Moonrise 2:26PMMoonset 2:30AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 539 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Scattered flurries this morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then snow showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201912071615;;983639 FZUS51 KBUF 071039 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 539 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-071615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 071039 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 539 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. Narrow bands of lake effect snow will continue this morning southeast of Lake Ontario with some minor additional accumulations. Otherwise scattered flurries and light snow showers this morning will end as high pressure builds into the area. Dry weather will then continue through Sunday with increasing southerly winds allowing temperatures to warm to above average by afternoon. The warmer weather will continue through Monday, with an approaching low pressure producing occasional rain showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Radar imagery showing a rather disorganized area of lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario early this morning, from northern and eastern Monroe County eastward to Oswego County. The upstream connection to Georgian Bay has not fully developed, which will likely keep this activity disorganized this morning. This area may see 1-2 inches of accumulation this morning in the most persistent bands. Another area of light snow not attributable to the lake has blossomed east of Lake Ontario in response to a passing shortwave and low level convergence. This area may see a dusting to an inch of accumulation before the snow fades away by mid morning. For the rest of the area, flurries and scattered light snow showers will continue through early to mid morning with nothing more than a light dusting.

High pressure will then build east across the eastern Great Lakes from late morning through the afternoon. Associated drier air, lowering inversion heights, and a disruption of low level flow will force lake effect to come to an end. The last of the snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario should end by mid afternoon. Lake effect clouds will be prevalent this morning, with a few breaks of sun developing this afternoon. Highs will be around 30 in most areas, and mid 20s east of Lake Ontario.

High pressure will drift to the southern New England coast tonight. Increasing warm advection in the wake of the departing high will bring an increase in high clouds overnight. Lows will occur during the mid to late evening, with 20s across Western NY and teens from the Genesee Valley eastward, and even some single digits east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will then rise overnight as a southerly breeze and warm advection increase.

High pressure will continue to move east and off the New England coast Sunday. Ongoing warm advection will continue to support thickening mid/high clouds, but any rain showers associated with the next system will remain well to our northwest through early evening with dry conditions prevailing in the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will warm to above average, with highs in the mid 40s across Western NY and mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Dry conditions likely continue into the early part of Sunday night, before a narrow ribbon of moisture starts to work into the area ahead of a nearly stationary frontal boundary parked across the upper Great Lakes into southern Quebec. While the frontal boundary is expected to move little through Sunday night, precipitation chances will gradually increase with efficient transport of moisture aided by a 40+ knot low level jet over the Great Lakes. Series of shortwaves advancing through the mean trough should be more than sufficient to generate some showers across the area as we move through Sunday night. While most locations will see precipitation in the liquid form, there might be some snow east of Lake Ontario. This is where deeper colder air mass will reside initially at the start of the precipitation. There, a few tenths of an inch of snow will be possible before the transition over to rain. Within warm air advection, overnight temperatures likely remaining steady or slowly rising with early lows bottoming out in the 30s to lower 40s, with the coldest readings found east of Lake Ontario.

Shortwave trough over the upper Midwest tracks east and into the upper Great Lakes on Monday. Associated deepening surface wave will track northwest of the area across lower Michigan. This will maintain a deep southerly flow of warm moist air ahead of approaching cold front, resulting in widespread showers across the area. Rainfall amounts likely to be in the one-third to three- quarters of an inch range, although would not rule out isolated heavier amounts, especially if any convective elements can develop. Despite the rain, it will be a mild day Monday with most high temperatures getting into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Low pressure will move into Quebec Monday night sending a strong cold front toward the region, likely reaching far western New York by daybreak Tuesday. The widespread showers will gradually lessen Monday night as the main forcing shifts to out east.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. . SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK .

An Arctic cold front will plow across the region on Tuesday. As such, cold air will rapidly pour into the area in the wake of the front causing the lingering rain showers from Tuesday morning to abruptly transition over to snow showers as we head into Tuesday afternoon.

Winds shifting to westerly at 850 mb Tuesday night and Wednesday will advect cold air into the region, causing the 850 mb temperatures to drop to around -15C Tuesday night into early Wednesday, before a reinforcing shot of arctic air moves across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night, with 850 mb temperatures nearing -20C.

Multiple parameters remain favorable for a potentially significant lake effect snow event mid week, including good over-lake instability, available moisture and positioning of upper and lower level features suggesting a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario beginning Tuesday night continuing into most of the day on Wednesday. That said, have become a little less impressed with the overall shear profiles, which have become less favorable for a steady state heavy lake effect snow set up. However, we are still a few days out and as such uncertainty remains on the exact positioning of the lake effect bands.

High pressure will pass just south of the region later Thursday into Friday, with lowering precipitation chances as we progress toward the end of the period. Winds will begin their gradual shift from west-northwesterly Thursday morning, to more southwesterly by late in the day Thursday as high pressure moves southeast of the area. Although this will signal the beginning of the warm advection process, it will be a slow one. Temps aloft will still be plenty cold enough to support a lake response, though will be quite muted when compared to the previous as shear and drier air (lowering cap) come into play as well. Will most likely see the typical south to north 'sweep' of the lake bands as winds slowly back from west-northwest to southwest Thursday into Thursday evening. Any lingering snow showers northeast of the lakes Thursday night will become even more sparse by Friday as progressively warmer air continues to push in aloft.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Lake effect snow showers will continue southeast of Lake Ontario through this morning with local IFR from east of KROC to near KFZY. Some general light snow showers east of Lake Ontario will also produce areas of IFR VSBY. Outside of this, a few flurries and light snow showers will continue through early to mid morning across much of the region with mainly VFR VSBY. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue across the higher terrain and also in the lake effect clouds southeast of the lakes this morning.

High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes today. This will allow all the lake effect snow showers to end, with a return to mainly VFR CIGS by afternoon. VFR will then continue tonight as the high pressure drifts off the New England coast.

Outlook .

Sunday . VFR. MVFR in rain Sunday night with LLWS possible. Monday . Areas of MVFR in rain. Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late. Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow east of the Lakes.

MARINE. Moderate northwest winds will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions through early afternoon on Lake Ontario. High pressure will then build east across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon, allowing winds to diminish.

A short period of lighter winds is expected late today and tonight, but SSW winds will quickly increase on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Sunday. A windy period of weather will then continue through much of the week as a strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday, followed by moderate westerlies Tuesday night through Thursday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ043- 044. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . AR/TMA LONG TERM . EAJ/JM/TMA AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi60 min 27°F 1026.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi72 min WSW 7 G 9.9 28°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi72 min WNW 14 G 19 30°F 1028.4 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi18 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast26°F19°F75%1028.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE3S3CalmN5N10N13N9NW8W8NW7NW8W6W4W8W4W6W10W8W7W6W5W7W5
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.