Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Greece, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 5:12PM Friday January 24, 2020 8:19 PM EST (01:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:37AMMoonset 4:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 847 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Saturday afternoon...
This afternoon..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow likely during the day, then snow showers likely Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202001242230;;442834 FZUS51 KBUF 241347 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 847 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-242230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greece, NY
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location: 43.29, -77.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 250026 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 726 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. A broad . complex storm system over the mid western states will slowly cross the Lower Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. This will result in widespread rain across the region for the first half of the weekend . then as colder air works back into the area on the backside of the system . the rain will change to wet snow for later Saturday night and Sunday. Most areas should pick up an inch or two of accumulation by the end of the weekend with parts of the Southern Tier and Eastern Lake Ontario region receiving several inches.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. A vertically stacked storm system centered over Illinois this evening will very slowly make its way to Lower Michigan and Lake Erie by Saturday afternoon In the process. the mature system will push its surface occlusion across our forecast area. This will result in an 8 to 12 hour period of widespread rain with basin average rainfall amounts averaging a half inch by late Saturday afternoon. Downsloping may cut as much as half of this expected rainfall in a 25 mile swath from Buffalo and Batavia to Wayne co.

Initially . a strong southerly flow will keep the steady rain over the far western counties where a strongly divergent upper level flow and a 50kt low level jet will provide the bulk of the needed lift within an axis of deep Atlantic moisture. As we progress through the overnight into early Saturday . the swath of deep moisture will push to the east across the Finger Lakes region. While the majority of the forcing will still come from the aforementioned 50kt LLJ . a 90kt H25 jet and the onset of frontogentic lift will also come into play.

During the midday and afternoon hours on Saturday . the sfc occlusion will make its way across our forecast area. Strengthening low level convergence ahead of the boundary will only add to the continued lift being supplied by ingredients outlined in the previous paragraph. The steadiest rain from this scenario during the second half of Saturday will be found from the Finger Lakes to the Eastern Lake Ontario region . while a lack of forcing in the wake of the occlusion will only support a wealth of low clouds and greatly diminished rain shower activity over the far western counties.

The only potential issue with this precipitation during this period will be the low chc that it could initially fall as freezing rain over the Eastern Lake Ontario region during the first few hours of Saturday morning Confidence is low that this will take place. so will allow ensuing forecast shifts to re-examine before issuing any possible winter weather advisories Otherwise. the air temperature should remain above freezing for all areas through Saturday. Even for those areas that might tickle the freezing mark (Ern Lk Ontario region, coldest Srn Tier valleys) . road surfaces will generally be in the low to mid 40s . so travel issues are not anticipated.

The other potential problem will be the risk for strong downsloping winds off the Chautauqua ridge. While the wind profile with a south- southeast 50kt LLJ and strong inversion just abv the ridge is favorable for the strong localized winds along the Lake Erie shore . fairly widespread rain should minimize the threat by stabilizing the environment Nevertheless. gusts to 45 mph will be possible tonight from Ripley . Westfield and Dunkirk to near Hamburg.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. There will be about a 6 hour break in the precipitation on Saturday night. Steady rain focused along a southerly LLJ across the North Country early Saturday evening will exit to the east by late evening. There will be limited forcing behind this with generally light winds and even hints of weak surface ridging. The break will be short-lived, with precipitation returning from west to east following the eastward movement of a closed 500 mb low which will move into Western New York Saturday night. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -6/-7C by daybreak Sunday which will be cold enough to support mainly snow. Any accumulation will be limited, with maybe an inch or two across higher terrain and less than an inch elsewhere. Temperatures at daybreak will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. One other concern for Saturday night is that if there is a break in mid-level moisture then lift would be below dendritic snow growth zone with patchy freezing drizzle possible across the North Country. Abundant moisture with the upper low should limit this risk, with any freezing drizzle expected to be isolated.

The best chance for accumulating snow is Sunday and Sunday night. However, surface temperatures will marginal for snow and so snow will struggle to accumulate. Model QPF has also been a challenge, with some models and runs significantly higher than others. In general, upsloping will play a significant role, along with deep moisture associated with the upper low, and a secondary trough which is forecast to move through Sunday night. Southwesterly winds typically do not upslope effectively, and suspect some model guidance has overdone lake enhancement which should be minimal. Base don this, have hedged toward model runs with lower QPF amounts. A more WSW surface flow will support better upsloping Sunday night, and this may be when the most snow accumulates.

Snowfall amounts will vary by location, with generally the greatest amounts across higher terrain east of the lakes where there will be some orographic enhancement and where it will be the coldest. Snow amounts are likely to fall in the advisory range with 24-hour storm totals in the 4 to 8 inch range at these locations. The Tug Hill bears some watching, with slightly higher amounts possible, but held off on watch headlines considering that snow will likely be wet and have poor liquid equivalent ratios. Elsewhere there will be minimal accumulation. This includes the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas, I- 90 along Lake Erie, the Genesee River Valley, and western Finger Lakes. Expect only a slushy inch or two at these locations.

Northwest upslope snow showers will continue into Monday, with just some scattered snow showers across the lower terrain. All of this activity will taper off late in the day as low pressure departs into the Canadian Maritimes. Any additional accumulations will be minor.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. A surface front will slowly pass southward through the region on Monday night into Tuesday as its associated upper level trough crosses the region during this time frame. The passage of the front will have limited moisture to work with so this will only produce light snow showers lasting through the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday evening. This front will bring colder temperatures allowing our temperatures to return to near average for this time of the year.

Dry weather should return for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. There is some potential for precipitation for Thursday night and Friday with some guidance bringing a shortwave and low pressure across the region. However, the model guidance is uncertain with the placement of subtle feature, supporting only slight chance or low chance PoPs across our region.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A large . slow moving storm system over the Mid western states will slowly make its way to the Lower Great Lakes overnight and Saturday. This will lead to deteriorating conditions . with general VFR conditions giving way to MVFR then IFR cigs.

The Srn Tier will be the first to experience MVFR cigs this evening. As we work past 06z . lower VFR cigs will drop to MVFR levels across the western counties. Sites east of Lk Ontario (KART, KGTB) should remain VFR through daybreak. The lowering cigs will be accompanied by increasingly widespread rain.

On Saturday . MVFR cigs over the western counties will further lower to IFR/LIFR levels. This will mainly take place in the wake of passing surface occlusion. MVFR conditions east of Lake Ontario should hold off until after midday.

The deteriorating cigs tonight will be accompanied by low level wind shear. A 50kt low level jet will support this risk through the overnight.

Outlook .

Saturday night . MVFR to IFR cigs with rain showers changing to snow showers. Sunday . MVFR to IFR in widespread snow showers. Monday . IFR to MVFR cigs slowly improving to VFR. Tuesday . Mainly VFR . but MVFR in scattered snow showers. Wednesday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Easterly winds have increased on Lake Ontario resulting in Small Craft Conditions for the nearshore zones on the western end of the lake through Saturday. Northeast winds will continue on Lake Erie this afternoon becoming southeast tonight.

Winds and waves on both lakes will come around to the southwest Saturday afternoon across Lake Erie and Saturday night across Lake Ontario . as the vertically stacked storm will make its way across the region. There may be a period of Small Craft Conditions Saturday afternoon on Lake Erie On the backside of the system. winds and waves will once again increase throughout the day Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Saturday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . RSH SHORT TERM . Apffel LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . RSH MARINE . HSK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 3 mi49 min 1019.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 5 mi19 min E 11 G 13 38°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 55 mi19 min E 8 G 8.9 36°F 1019 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi25 minESE 710.00 miOvercast43°F30°F63%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6CalmSW3SE5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE6E4E8SE5E5E4E3SE8SE7SE7SE5SE9SE7SE6SE7
1 day agoCalmCalmW3SW4SW4W4SW8SW9SW8SW8SW7SW7SW7SW8SW5W4CalmCalmCalmNE4SE3CalmNE3Calm
2 days agoSW8SW7SW6SW5SW7SW7SW7SW8SW8SW10SW11SW10SW9SW7SW7SW7S8SW8SW8SW6CalmCalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.