Monday, January18, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Bunker Hill, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 5:12PM Monday January 18, 2021 5:32 PM PST (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:02AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 226 Pm Pst Mon Jan 18 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight pst tonight...
Tonight..NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 10 to 12 ft at 16 seconds...subsiding to 8 ft at 15 seconds after midnight.
Tue..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 13 seconds.
Tue night..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds and W 2 to 3 ft at 18 seconds.
Wed..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft.
Wed night..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft.
Thu..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft after midnight. NW swell 5 to 6 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 5 ft... Building to 8 ft.
Sat..NE wind 10 kt...backing to N in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to E after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less, then...becoming 3 ft in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 7 to 8 ft.
PZZ300 226 Pm Pst Mon Jan 18 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High pressure to the north and a thermal trough along the coast will maintain gusty north winds through tonight. Widespread advisory conditions will continue through this evening and then start to diminish some early Tuesday morning. Long period west swell and steep to very steep wind waves will gradually subside tonight into Tuesday. Overall, north winds will continue through midweek at least, and another round of steep seas is expected south of cape blanco late Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bunker Hill, OR
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location: 43.36, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 182241 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 241 PM PST Mon Jan 18 2021

SHORT TERM. Through Wednesday Night . Fog and stratus has been scoured from most west side valleys. Even most of the Umpqua Basin is free from the fog for a while. In typical vexing fashion though the fog has not been scoured out from most of the Rogue Valley. Grants Pass has begun to gain freedom from the fog, but from Phoenix to Gold Hill and Eagle Point the fog remains. This is due to the moist layer being more than doable the depth it was last night and the faster 850 mb winds not mixing to the top of the cloud layer. We hope, but are not confident, that Medford and other parts of the Rogue Valley will break out to clear skies this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the short wave trough continues to dig over the Great Basin, moving south over Nevada. In response, the long wave ridge that has been building along the west coast will amplify offshore. As the ridge amplifies and the trough digs it will eventually cause the trough to get cut off. The winds aloft will peak as the low is cut off, which will be tonight, causing the surface winds to decrease in response. Therefore peak winds will be this afternoon and evening.

Tonight, another round of fog and freezing fog is possible for west side valleys. Confidence for another round of fog is high, with some guidance also suggesting it will be dense, but confidence is low that this will be the case. The scenario looks to be widespread fog/stratus just above the valley floors.

Tuesday, winds will be noticeably more calm, especially west of the Cascades at ridges and valleys alike. Winds will remain elevated along the higher terrain from the Cascades east through the late afternoon. Once another round of fog and stratus erodes Tuesday morning, skies will be virtually clear. Even cirrus is not anticipated.

By Tuesday evening the ridge will begin to flatten out and the ridge axis will be directly over the area. The region will be in between the decaying upper-level jet circumnavigating around the now cut off low and the polar jet flowing west to east along the U.S./Canadian border. The winds across the high terrain from the Cascades east will begin to ease at this time with its upper-level source removed.

This will setup the potential for the coldest night in a while across the east side. It will also be the coldest night so far for the west side, but fog/freezing fog still can't be ruled out, though the coverage of the fog should be progressively less than Tuesday morning's fog coverage. So, how low temperatures will drop is still more unknown than we would like, but used analogs from similar events for the MinT forecast, so it should be reasonably close.

The ridge should hold Wednesday, despite flattening further as a trough begins to develop over the Eastern Pacific. This means that clear skies may be present at the start of the day, but will slowly fill in as upper level clouds begin to invade the celestial dome. Temperatures should still get quite warm even with cloud cover increasing, though Brookings will not be nearly as warm as it has been with strong downslope flow no longer occurring. As day turns to night, winds will begin to pick up along the peaks and ridges as the trough continues to deepen offshore. -Miles

LONG TERM. Thursday January 21st through Monday January 25th . The overall pattern during the extended will trend toward a more active pattern with gradually lowering snow levels compared to the near term. Low pressure will move into the region from the northwest Thursday. Models remain fairly good agreement with the timing and track of this system and have precipitation arriving in the far northwestern portions of the area by late Thursday morning. Precipitation amounts continue to look on the lighter side and focused along and west of the Cascades. Snow levels look to start around 3500 ft, lowering to around 2000 to 2500 ft Thursday night into Friday morning. Again, precipitation amounts will be light as the bulk of the energy and moisture will be focused in northern California, so winter weather impacts should be minimal. The current forecast has 1-2 inches along the Cascades, with generally less than an inch down to 2000 ft west of the Cascades Thursday night into Friday morning.

Showers will linger through Friday morning, tapering off that afternoon as low pressure moves south of the area. Dry conditions will continue Friday afternoon into Saturday and overnight/morning fog and low clouds are likely for west side valleys. Beginning Sunday, and continuing into the following week, models and ensembles are in good agreement that broad upper level troughing will settle over the Pacific Northwest. Multiple fronts will move through the area during this time and we could be looking at some of the lowest snow levels of the season. While it's much too soon to speak of specific details with any level of confidence, it is looking more likely that there will be periods of winter impacts to the passes north of Grants Pass, and possibly down to some valley floors beginning around day 7 (Sunday) and continuing into the following week. Models indicate the first potential of this could be with the arrival of a wet front somewhere in the late Sunday through Tuesday morning timeframe where snow levels could be in the 1500 to 2000 ft range. Again, confidence remains low on details, but ensembles have been highlighting this period for a few days now so this will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer in time. /BR-y

AVIATION. For the 18/18Z TAFs . Offshore northeast winds are causing the air mass to dry out significantly today above the low- level inversion. This is resulting in VFR across a large part of the area, including North Bend and Klamath Falls. However, beneath the inversion, areas of MVFR/IFR/LIFR fog and stratus continue to impact the west side, namely the Scott, lower Klamath, Rogue and Illinois Valleys as well as the Umpqua Basin. The lower conditions are expected to mix out and become VFR by mid-afternoon. Another night of east winds above the inversion means VFR for most, though areas of IFR/LIFR fog/low clouds will likely return to Medford and Roseburg. Confidence is higher for the lower conditions to return to the Umpqua Basin. For the Rogue Valley, however, much will depend on how much mixing occurs. It's possible that the Rogue Valley remains VFR overnight, or at the very least the extent of IFR/LIFR conditions should be much less than recent mornings. -Spilde/BR-y

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PST Monday, 18 Jan 2021 . High pressure to the north and a thermal trough along the coast will maintain gusty north winds through tonight. Widespread advisory conditions will continue through this evening and then start to diminish some early Tuesday morning. Long period west swell and steep to very steep wind waves will gradually subside tonight into Tuesday. Overall, north winds will continue through midweek at least, and another round of steep seas is expected south of Cape Blanco late Tuesday.

Looking further out in time, north winds will probably continue through the end of the week, and seas are expected to build late in the week and into the weekend. Northerly wind waves, and occasional northwest fresh swells could bring rounds of Small Craft Advisory conditions during this period of time. -Spilde/Keene

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 11 mi56 min N 13 G 21 1029 hPa
SNTO3 11 mi62 min NNE 4.1 50°F 1030 hPa45°F
46128 22 mi32 min 51°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 36 mi36 min 51°F15 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi44 min NNW 13 G 19 50°F 51°F1028.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR8 mi36 minN 84.00 miFog/Mist49°F45°F86%1029.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N7N3N10NE5NE4N6N5CalmN7NE6N7N6CalmN6N6NE6NE5N11N9N10N12N15N8
1 day agoCalmCalmSE9S6CalmCalmSE4CalmS3SE3SE6SE9SE4N4S4CalmNW3N11N12N14N16N13N13N10
2 days agoN4CalmCalmN4N6N5N3SE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE4S4SE5SE6--NW5N5N5NW4NW5N3

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:01 AM PST     7.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:56 AM PST     2.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:02 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:33 PM PST     6.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:11 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:58 PM PST     1.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:15 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.84.45.86.87.26.964.93.93.12.93.23.94.95.86.46.45.94.83.62.41.51.21.6

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon (2)
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Charleston
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:02 AM PST     7.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:55 AM PST     2.96 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:02 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:26 PM PST     6.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:11 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:54 PM PST     1.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:15 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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34.55.96.97.26.96.153.93.233.3455.86.36.35.74.73.52.31.51.31.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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