Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bunker Hill, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:55PM Thursday July 16, 2020 9:07 AM PDT (16:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:28AMMoonset 4:30PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 857 Am Pdt Thu Jul 16 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Today..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning.
Tonight..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds...shifting to the nw 1 to 4 ft at 10 seconds after midnight.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt...rising to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri night..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
Sat..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. NW swell 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. W swell 4 ft... Shifting to the nw 5 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 5 ft.
PZZ300 857 Am Pdt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. A thermal trough will continue to produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas and gales south of cape blanco. The thermal trough is expected to move inland today with a slight and brief improvement in conditions, but then is likely to return Friday through the weekend with another round of gales and very steep seas. Improving conditions are expected early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bunker Hill, OR
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location: 43.36, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 161000 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 300 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2020

DISCUSSION. 16/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

A long wave ridge offshore will remain in place over the coming week. Short waves riding over the top of the ridge will make for some day to day variability, but the overall pattern will support hot and dry conditions inland.

Two short waves will move through, the first today and the second Friday. This will weaken the thermal trough pattern briefly. Today will probably be the hottest day east of the Cascades, with slight cooling over the west side due to more marine influence.

The chance for thunderstorms in Modoc county this afternoon and evening has been removed from the forecast. Support and moisture for convection will be better south of the Medford CWA.

After today's short wave moves out, there will be a marine push Thursday night into Friday morning with stratus returning to all coastal areas north of Cape Blanco. Some clouds could return to portions of the Umpqua Valley as well. Overall, Friday and Saturday will be the coolest days over the coming week, but it will remain quite warm, even hot in most areas south of the Umpqua Divide and east of the Cascades. The thermal trough will redevelop Friday afternoon and persist into the weekend.

The upper ridge will build in more strongly Sunday into Tuesday with the weak upper trough pushing farther off the California coast. This will bring a return of hotter temperatures inland. The Rogue Valley and California's Klamath Valley will likely have highs near or above 100 degrees Sunday through Wednesday. Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings may be necessary. The weak upper trough will eventually feed some moisture, and thus thunderstorms, into the Medford CWA. At this time it does not look like this will happen before next Friday, so there are no thunderstorms in the current forecast. This may change, so stayed tuned.

AVIATION. For the 16/06Z TAF Cycle . The marine layer is filling into the lower coastal valleys from Cape Blanco northward this evening with IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities. The layer also extends westward across all of the coastal waters to include west of the Curry County coastline mostly beyond 10NM of the coast, but closer to land north of Gold Beach to Cape Blanco. KOTH is likely to be IFR to LIFR til 16Z as it fills into the lower Coquille Basin. Brookings Airport is likely to be in an IFR to LIFR marine stratus and fog eddy between 09Z and 17Z. Otherwise, north and northwest will continue to settle down overnight only to pick up once again tomorrow afternoon and evening. ~BTL

MARINE. Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, 16 July 2020 . The thermal trough along the coast has started moving inland. Gales and very steep, hazardous seas continue over portions of the southern waters. A recent scatterometer pass showed confirmed gales south of Port Orford. Therefore, will continue with current headlines. Fog has greatly reduced visibilities across some of the area as well, thus increasing the hazards. Outside of the area of gales, Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist.

The thermal trough is expected to weaken slightly today, allowing for brief improvement in conditions before re-intensifying Friday. Gales and hazardous seas are therefore likely to return Friday through the weekend. Models suggest a longer period of improved conditions early next week, but there is uncertainty regarding the timing and duration of improved conditions. ~BPN/LPR

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday 16 July 2020 . Hot and dry conditions will continue through today. Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal. A thermal trough at the surface will result in gusty north winds at most areas west of the Cascades through today. There will also be low daytime humidities in the afternoon and evening.

An upper trough on Friday will result in a weaker thermal trough at the coast, some improved recoveries, especially west of the Cascades, and slightly less hot conditions. Of concern, gusty northwest to west winds will develop in the afternoon across much of the area, with strongest winds east of the Cascades. Low daytime humidities combined with gusty winds may bring near critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon and evening, mainly for areas in eastern Klamath, Lake and Modoc Counties.

Another warming trend is expected Sunday into Wednesday for inland areas, and very hot temperatures and very low humidities are likely with this heat event.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

15/15/20


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 11 mi92 min 68°F
SNTO3 11 mi83 min N 4.1 52°F 1019 hPa52°F
46128 22 mi68 min 49°F 49°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 36 mi42 min 51°F5 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi68 min 45°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR8 mi72 minN 50.50 miFog55°F55°F100%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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N14N8N7N5N4N3CalmN5N3NW6N9
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N13N10N5N7N6CalmNW4NW4CalmCalmN7

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:09 AM PDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:41 AM PDT     5.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:25 PM PDT     3.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:31 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM PDT     7.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.21.910.60.81.52.53.54.44.954.74.23.63.33.33.84.65.66.67.27.36.8

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon (2)
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Charleston
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:13 AM PDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:48 AM PDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:22 PM PDT     3.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:31 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM PDT     7.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.73.3210.60.81.42.43.44.34.854.74.13.53.23.23.74.65.66.67.27.36.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.