Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Coos Bay, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:42PM Monday December 9, 2019 11:26 AM PST (19:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:26PMMoonset 4:48AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 837 Am Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday evening...
Today..E wind 10 kt...veering to S late afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 15 seconds.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 to 4 ft after midnight. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Tue..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 5 ft at 15 seconds...building to 7 to 8 ft at 13 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 10 to 15 kt...backing to se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 7 to 9 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..S wind 5 kt...rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. W swell 7 to 8 ft. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 8 to 9 ft. Rain.
Thu..S wind 25 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 7 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. W swell 16 ft.
Fri..SW wind 10 kt...veering to W in the evening, then... Backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft in the afternoon, then... Becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 14 to 16 ft.
PZZ300 837 Am Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Weak high pressure will persist today. Early Tuesday, south winds will increase and seas will become steep ahead of a cold front. The front will be the start of a new series of disturbances with slight, brief improvement in conditions early Wednesday then steep seas likely continuing into the weekend. This includes a large, steep, long period west swell Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coos Bay, OR
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location: 43.38, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 091820 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1020 AM PST Mon Dec 9 2019

UPDATE. Updated AVIATION section. Please see below for details.

AVIATION. For the 09/18Z TAFs . LIFR/IFR/MVFR stratus/fog are entrenched in many of the valleys this morning, including east of the Cascades. Satellite imagery shows some east wind eroding the eastern edges of the low ceilings/fog in the Umpqua and Rogue Valleys, but overall, the stratus has the look that it won't be able to completely erode in some areas this afternoon, especially the Illinois, Scott and Shasta Valleys, but also near Klamath Falls. Therefore, we've adjusted the break out times later to at least 20z in the TAFs, but it could be even later or not at all. Interestingly, it appears the stratus will break up most quickly in Roseburg. In valley areas that do manage to break out, expect a few hours of VFR, but IFR will likely return this evening and continue overnight into Tuesday morning. A frontal system will arrive at the coast Tuesday morning with some light precipitation moving in west of the Cascades in the afternoon/evening, then shifting east of the Cascades at night. -Spilde

MARINE. Updated 830 AM PST Monday, 9 December 2019 . Weak high pressure will persist over the waters today with light winds into this evening. Winds will increase and seas will become steep Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front. There is still variation among model solutions leading to some uncertainty in whether wind speeds with the front on Tuesday will quite reach advisory strength. But, we are highly confident that the combination of gusty south winds and west swell will create overall conditions that are hazardous to small craft. The front will be the start of a new series of disturbances with slight, brief improvement in conditions early Wednesday, then steep seas likely continuing into the weekend. This includes a high to very high and steep to very steep long period west swell Thursday into Friday. With a consistent model forecast during the past few days, confidence is increasing that this westerly swell will become large enough (at least 15 feet at 15 seconds) to impact bar crossings and crab pots. DW/Keene

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 926 AM PST Mon Dec 9 2019/

UPDATE . Extensive fog and low stratus are in place in almost all of the valleys in the forecast area, even over much of the east side. Have adjusted high temperatures down and sky cover up with the expected lingering fog and low clouds, especially in the Rogue valley and the Roseburg area. However, there may be other areas that experience this, but confidence is not as high for these areas. Sven

PREV DISCUSSION . /Issued 240 AM PST Mon Dec 9 2019/

DISCUSSION . Satellite imagery is showing fog across most of the valleys in southern Oregon and northern California. A band of higher cirrus clouds are also traversing the area which has disrupted the fog from becoming extremely dense for the moment. Still the drive into work provided some patches of extremely dense fog where visibilities in the Rogue Valley were well less than a quarter of a mile. As a result, have issued a dense fog advisory for many of the West Side Valleys in Oregon through this morning. Once this band of cirrus moves away, the fog will reform pretty quickly and will become dense once again.

This is to be expected as our ridge of high pressure continues to build. This means that mixing heights will be meager under the inversion with limited transport winds. If this were to last more than 24-36 hours, an air stagnation advisory may have been issued. This pattern will continue into Monday night with another round of fog and freezing fog over most of our area valleys.

Then, on Tuesday, a weak front will move through the area. This front looks like it could bring some light precipitation to areas west of the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon and evening with more widespread (East Side) precipitation occurring Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday morning. Snow levels will be around 6000 feet west of the Cascades and 4500 feet east of the Cascades. Come Wednesday, the snow levels will moderate out closer to the 5000 foot level.

The big thing this front will do is break down the ridge into more zonal (west to east, upper level flow) flow. Snow levels will rise to 5500 to 6500 feet by Thursday as the next system comes in. This system will also bring considerably more precipitation to southern Oregon and northern California. Still this system looks rather typical for this time of year with the exception of high snow levels (6000 feet). After the front passes through on Friday, the precipitation will become showery in nature as the snow levels drop to around 4000 feet by Friday night.

The next part of the forecast marks a relative change from previous shifts. Ensemble forecasts as well as the deterministic models are showing signs that the next low could dip farther south into northern California (south of Siskiyou and Modoc Counties) leaving us mainly dry. Have trended toward the drier solution as seen in the National Blend of Models, and if this trend continues, we could see a drier weekend. For now, am keeping the showers in the forecast on Saturday and drying things out for Sunday. Snow levels for will also continue to drop at this time (as will the resulting temperatures for our area) to around 2500 feet or so by Saturday night into Sunday as the precipitation comes to an end.

It is too far into the future to determine what impacts these systems will hold, but it will be worth keeping an eye on the forecast for any more drastic changes like we saw tonight. That being said, taking a sneak peak into the far extended forecast shows another quick ridge building in early next week before a front moves to more zonal flow and more systems coming in. We could continue this relatively active pattern up through the end of the year, (brief ridges with systems breaking them down every couple of days) but we will have to be patient to see how things actually shake out. -Schaaf

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

MAS/SBN/BMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 7 mi50 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 50°F1023.4 hPa
46128 18 mi86 min SSW 1.9 44°F 52°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 32 mi56 min 51°F5 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi56 min E 2.9 G 2.9 52°F 51°F1024.5 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR4 mi30 minSE 40.25 miFog43°F43°F100%1023.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4--NW3NW6N5N3CalmCalmN3SE4SE4SE3CalmNE3E3SE4E4E5SE4SE6S3SE3SE4SE4
1 day agoSE3N8--S4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmW3N7NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE5SE4N4CalmN4CalmE3CalmE8E7SE6SE8SE6SE5SE3SE4SE3SE5N3S4SE6SE8SE8--

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:32 AM PST     2.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:48 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:43 AM PST     8.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:37 PM PST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:01 PM PST     6.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.24.33.52.92.93.54.55.877.887.46.24.52.81.40.50.41.12.23.755.96.3

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon (2)
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Charleston
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:26 AM PST     2.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:48 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:39 AM PST     8.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:37 PM PST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:03 PM PST     6.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.14.23.32.82.93.54.65.97.17.987.46.14.52.71.30.50.412.23.64.95.86.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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