Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saginaw, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:28PM Friday September 25, 2020 8:16 PM EDT (00:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:44PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 346 Pm Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202009260315;;354046 FZUS53 KDTX 251946 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 346 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-260315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saginaw, MI
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location: 43.42, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 252329 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 729 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

AVIATION.

Shortwave ridging in advance of Western Lake Superior height falls will be in place over Southeast Michigan tonight. Synoptic scale support for subsidence will only be accentuated Saturday morning as models suggests a direct hit of differential anticyclonic vorticity advection through 12-18Z Saturday. Main axis of low-midlevel moisture is forecasted to become blocked on Saturday with greatest absolute moisture stalling over northern Lower Michigan. Persistent dry anticyclonic flow trajectories will then persist over the terminals throughout the day. A much greater negative absolute vorticity anomaly is then expected to advect through the area Saturday night. The net result is dry weather. Development of nocturnal surface based inversion will bring a potential for LIFR/IFR fog tonight. Tried to use a persistence forecast for fog and did introduce TEMPO IFR fog through daybreak. Suspect that fog may have a little better coverage tonight with dewpoints creeping into the middle to upper 50s.

For DTW . Potential exists for IFR and LIFR fog late tonight/daybreak Saturday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for visibilities of 1/2SM or cig heights below 200 ft.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

DISCUSSION .

Abundant sunshine once again today has allowed for temps to rise into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, despite the spotty fog around early this morning and overnight temps crashing into the 40s across the good radiators. Tonight there is much better pressure gradient/increasing southerly wind field (25 knots at 925 mb), but there still should be an attempt for surface winds to decouple, especially toward the Canadian border with the departing ridge axis. With the help of Lake Erie and some moisture advection coming up from the northern Ohio Valley, some fog or very low stratus looks possible across Monroe/Wayne counties and possibly extending farther west and north.

Warm and dry pattern looks to continue to predominately hold this weekend, as multiple upper waves track through the northern Great Lakes, far enough north to keep all/majority of activity out of southeast Michigan, as warm and dry mid level airmass ejects from the Four Corners region providing a cap with little to no height falls extending to the southern Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Increasing southwest flow (wind gusts of 25 mph in afternoon) tomorrow with 925 mb temps rising to 21 C suggests lower 80s will be no problem.

Main ribbon of moisture (850-700 mb Theta-E) does arrive Sunday morning, with PW values reaching around 1.5 inches during Sunday. Even so, even the normally moist NAM soundings indicating sufficient warm/dry cap within the the 850-700 mb layer despite the modestly negative showalter index.

Big pattern shift next week as copious amount of Pacific upper level energy comes ashore, carving out a longwave trough over the Central Conus by Monday. Too many individual shortwave interactions right now to get a good handle on the final outcome, as tightening baroclinic zone in the vicinity of southeast Michigan stands a good chance of flaring up early next week (supporting rain showers), but some very dramatic differences noted in the 00z 50 member European ensemble members from last night by early Tuesday morning.

Part of the issue is with the upper level wave/500 mb low over Eastern Texas, which the GFS is now showing the PV anomaly just be booted off to the east-northeast, failing to become absorbed/phased with the northern Stream energy coming out of the northern Rockies on Sunday. The longwave trough thus remains distinctly positive tilted into Monday, and there is still no clear cut dominate low pressure system riding along the front during the mid week period, as it appears it will be more or less a series of weak waves.

Will thus have to wait on additional jet energy coming out of the Gulf of Alaska and rounding ridge through the Yukon before plunging south for the end of the work week, delivering the much advertised colder air, as 850 mb temps still progged at or below zero by Friday. Even if 850 mb temps remain in low single numbers, still plenty cold enough for some lake enhanced/instability showers to be generated Thursday-Friday with the cold colonic flow producing steep low level lapse rates and convergence.

MARINE .

Dry conditions persist through the afternoon into this evening with light south flow generally 15 kt or below. A cold front moves into the northwestern Great Lakes tonight and remains nearly stationary across the Upper Peninsula on Saturday. This leads to a few opportunities for showers and possible thunderstorms across northern Lake Huron through the day tomorrow. A low pressure system then organizes over Wisconsin late Saturday, tracking northeast along the stalled front. This brings strengthening southwest winds that may reach Small Craft Advisory criteria across the nearshore waters late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The associated cold front moves through slowly late Sunday into Monday bringing a wind shift to the northwest and a good chance of rain.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 30 mi17 min S 14 G 15 71°F 1012.9 hPa (-0.0)
45163 43 mi17 min S 5.8 G 7.8 67°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 47 mi37 min SSE 9.9 G 11 71°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 63 mi37 min S 5.1 G 7 65°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI5 mi22 minS 410.00 miFair68°F53°F60%1013.9 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI10 mi24 minS 610.00 miFair71°F48°F46%1013.6 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair68°F54°F61%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYX

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SW3S3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W4W3SW4SE4S11S11S10S7S5
1 day agoSW5SW5W7SW6SW3SW3CalmCalmSW5SW4SW6SW3SW5SW4SW5SW5SW5W6SW7W7SW6SW6SW6SW3
2 days agoSW4SW3SW4SW4SW3CalmS3CalmS3S3SW5SW5CalmCalmSW4S5S6SW6SW8SW9SW8W6SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map


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