Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saginaw, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:25PM Sunday August 25, 2019 1:00 PM EDT (17:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:21AMMoonset 3:49PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 946 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny late in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201908252100;;185700 FZUS53 KDTX 251348 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 946 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-252100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saginaw, MI
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location: 43.42, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 250956
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
556 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Aviation
Persistent area of high pressure will remain in control of the
weather one more day providingVFR conditions through the period. A
wind shift from northeast to east-southeast has pushed a plume of
moisture stratus off lake erie across the area early this morning.

While this scours out we may also see some high cirrus shedding off
the next system to our southwest over the area. Lastly, we should
have another diurnal CU field try to pop this afternoon but most
likely in the few to sct coverage due to lack of moisture. Bkn cloud
deck may try to move in Monday morning in advance of this next
system but still remainVFR.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 403 am edt Sun aug 25 2019
discussion...

the west flank of surface high pressure remains over the central
great lakes and is set to provide a nice finish to the weekend
across SE michigan. Expect conditions similar to Saturday with a
cool start across the region and some marine induced clouds during
the morning, only this time stratocu from lake erie instead of
huron. This is followed by a transition to scattered fair weather
cumulus and nearly full late summer surface heating that helps lift
high temperatures into the mid 70s to near 80. These readings are a
few degrees warmer as the core of the cool high pressure air mass
shifts eastward.

An increase in high clouds tonight is the first sign of changes
ramping up for the early week period. Larger scale features are
progressing as expected from the canadian rockies into the southern
plains where the lead upper level circulation is first to interact
with the surface front that has been stalled near the gulf coast.

This system begins drawing gulf moisture northward tonight while
phasing with the deepening upper trough over central canada. These
upper level systems combine to enhance moisture transport into the
central great lakes during Monday to the extent that likely pops
become warranted across SE michigan by Monday evening. Model theta-e
depictions are in good agreement with the maintenance of a sharp
moisture gradient in the 850-700 mb layer suggesting elevated
portions of the front maintain integrity. The moisture axis matures
overhead as 700 mb dewpoint reaches around 5c and pw approaches 2
inches. This coincides with just enough elevated instability for a
chance of thunderstorms to go along with scattered to numerous
showers through about midnight.

A subtle dry slot follows for late Monday night which could reduce
coverage or produce a transition to drizzle before the cold front
moves in from the midwest during Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF are in
reasonable agreement with mid afternoon timing of the frontal
passage. GFS projections of MUCAPE around 1500 j kg and MLCAPE less
than 1000 j kg suggest a cloud laden moisture axis ahead of the
front as a limiting factor for instability. On the other hand, the
modest instability could be compensated for by strong forcing and a
favorable wind profile associated with the large low pressure system
spanning central canada and the midwest. Expectations lean toward at
least some convective organization with scattered to numerous
coverage before the front exits SE michigan by Tuesday evening.

The rest of the mid week period turns breezy, slightly cooler and
less humid after the cold front through Wednesday. The unseasonably
strong low pressure system lingers over northern ontario and fills
through Thursday with the bulk of any cold core showers located over
the northern great lakes.

Marine...

high pressure will hold over the eastern lakes one more day while
continuing to drift eastward toward the canadian maritime. This will
lead to a weak easterly wind field primarily below 15 knots. The
next trough currently over the central plains will move into the
western great lakes on Monday. This will tighten the pressure
gradient in between the two systems bringing an increase to the
winds as they veer more southerly. Southeast winds around 15 to 20
knots with gusts of 25-30 knots will be possible and may require
small craft advisories along the lake huron shoreline. This system
will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms during the
later half of Monday into Tuesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 30 mi60 min ESE 13 G 14 69°F 1023.4 hPa (-0.6)
45163 43 mi40 min ENE 7.8 G 14 72°F 72°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 47 mi20 min ENE 14 G 15 69°F 1024 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 63 mi20 min E 8.9 G 13 73°F 1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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NE8
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N11
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G11
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G14
NE12
G15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI5 mi65 minESE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F53°F50%1024 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI10 mi67 minESE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F54°F51%1024 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi64 minESE 10 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F53°F46%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYX

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE10
G15
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G16
NE13N10E8E6NE6E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E8E8SE8
1 day agoN5N10
G16
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N10NE6NE3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7E9NE8
G16
2 days agoNW3NW5N6NE4NE4N4CalmCalmN3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmNW4W4W4NW3W5NW5NW6N6N7NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.