Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saginaw, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 5:40PM Sunday January 26, 2020 5:06 PM EST (22:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:17AMMoonset 7:28PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 342 Pm Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Cloudy. Light snow showers likely in the evening. Drizzle likely in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202001270415;;559016 FZUS53 KDTX 262042 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 342 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-270415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saginaw, MI
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location: 43.42, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 262057 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

DISCUSSION.

Precipitation type has wavered between drizzle and snow flurries or a brief more notable snow shower during the early to mid afternoon with a strong dependence on ill-defined spurts of stronger forcing in broad cyclonic flow. A smaller scale but stronger circulation continues inbound from northern Lower Michigan which is expected to maintain a general high POP/low QPF scenario beginning now in the Tri Cities to northern Thumb and spreading southward tonight. Observed and forecast soundings show the melting layer pretty much surface based which indicates a change to all snow as more consistent saturation occurs in the DGZ even before sunset. DGZ saturation is aided by a corridor of enhanced lift generated by moderate DCVA in a standard stability profile. This system remains able to make the most out of moisture mainly confined to the low levels with some lake aggregate enhancement. The forecast maintains and extends entry level likely POPs farther into the night resulting in a coating of accumulation less than a half inch. Much like last night, expect paved surfaces to become more receptive to a slushy coating and slick spots as temperatures settle near freezing before the system exits by sunrise Monday.

The wave tonight exits eastward with the western flank of the larger scale upper level low and leaves short wave ridging in place over the Great Lakes for Monday and Monday night. This ensures dry weather to start the week while moderate northwest wind brings a few degrees of cooler temperatures. Readings are kept in a narrow range by abundant cloud cover while highs in the lower to mid 30s and lows in the 20s are still at or above normal for late January.

The circulation observed near the south shore of Hudson Bay this afternoon is projected to move over Lower Michigan by Tuesday but shears and fills considerably by afternoon. Moisture remains limited and the low level thermal profile is not quite cold enough for a convincing lake activation in lingering west to northwest low level flow. Dry conditions remain preferred for this time period while continuing to monitor potential for snow showers as the wind turns northward Tuesday night.

The range of 12Z deterministic solutions are in general agreement on weak split flow in the upper levels over central North America by Wednesday. The Great Lakes are shown to be more under the influence of ridging aloft that supports diffuse surface high pressure over Lower Michigan Wednesday into Thursday. This maintains dry weather during the mid to late week period with temperatures around normal for late January. Thursday is projected to be the best day for a return of at least partial sunshine as easterly flow helps dissipate low clouds while the surface high slides eastward. The next low pressure system is then shown in extended models arriving during Friday. It appears lean on moisture and presents just a chance of light snow heading into next weekend.

MARINE.

Northwest flow will continue this evening and slowly weaken as the night progresses. Higher wave action will occur on the Canadian side of Lake Huron with the northeastern Thumb on the edge of that wave field. Currently looks like small craft-level waves will remain in the open waters offshore, so have opted not to issue an advisory. High pressure over the Canadian Plains will slowly overspread the region Monday and remain for the majority of next work week.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1207 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

AVIATION .

Moist and cold cyclonic flow will maintain borderline IFR/MVFR low clouds through the TAF period, although further subtle cooling and drying should lift some of the cloud bases into more solidly low MVFR. With the cooling and an upper wave pivoting through the Central Great Lakes this evening, precip type should transition to straight snow, tapering off late tonight. Still, just minor snow accumulation (trace-half an inch) due to transient nature and poor organization.

Southwest winds aoa 10 knots this afternoon veering to the northwest late tonight and becoming light, with light winds persisting on Monday. With the northwest winds, higher confidence any IFR cigs will lift into MVFR cigs for tomorrow.

For DTW . Drizzle and maybe some mixed wet snow flakes from time to time this afternoon into early evening, then snow showers likely developing with best window occuring during the overnight hours.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for cigs aob 5kft.

* Medium for light rain/drizzle as precip type this afternoon, high for snow this evening and tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . KDK AVIATION . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 30 mi66 min W 16 G 19 34°F 1005.8 hPa (-0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 47 mi26 min W 17 G 20 35°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI5 mi70 minW 1210.00 miOvercast34°F30°F87%1006.8 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI10 mi73 minW 1010.00 miOvercast36°F28°F73%1007.7 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi71 minW 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast36°F29°F77%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYX

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW3SW5SW5SW5SW5SW6SW6SW7SW7SW8SW9SW8SW9SW7SW8SW8SW10
G16
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1 day agoE6E5E4NE4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4SW4S5SW6SW4SW3SW7SW5SW7SW7SW6SW6SW6
2 days agoCalmE3E4CalmSE4E4E5NE4E3CalmSE3E4NE6NE7NE10E8NE7E7E7E6E7E8E7E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.