Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glasgow, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:26PM Thursday September 16, 2021 10:58 AM PDT (17:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:44PMMoonset 12:46AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 257 Am Pdt Thu Sep 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. SWell nw 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 10 to 20 kt...easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight, then...veering to E early in the morning. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell nw 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri..SE wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to S 5 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. NW swell 5 ft at 10 seconds...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds in the afternoon.
Fri night..S wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft...building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. SWell W 4 to 5 ft. Rain.
Sat..S wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. SWell W 7 ft. Rain.
Sat night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. SWell W 7 to 8 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Sun..SW wind 10 to 15 kt...backing to S 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. SWell W 8 to 9 ft.
Mon..E wind 5 kt...backing to N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 4 ft. W swell 9 ft... Subsiding to 7 ft.
PZZ300 257 Am Pdt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Gusty winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas continue through Thursday morning. This includes gales from cape blanco southward. Winds and seas then gradually diminish through Thursday night. A cold front is expected Friday into Friday night with the strongest southerly winds north of cape blanco. These southerly winds will likely be hazardous to smaller crafts. Low pressure will persist during the weekend with seas becoming swell dominated.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glasgow, OR
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location: 43.43, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 161020 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 320 AM PDT Thu Sep 16 2021

DISCUSSION. Conditions will be dry and warm through early Friday afternoon, in what amounts to rather typical weather for late summer in our area. The rest of the weekend, however, will be much more atypical for mid September, with a significantly wet system expected to move through the region, producing plenty of rain, gusty winds, and much cooler temperatures.

The models (both operational and ensembles) continue to trend slightly slower with the arrival of the front and precipitation. Thus, it's looking more likely we'll end up flat out dry through Friday afternoon. However we'll see clouds and winds increasing as the day progresses. Moderate to strong winds are expected to develop east of the Cascades in the afternoon and early evening hours, and although models have also trended slightly weaker with the overall wind speeds, but winds could still easily reach between 25-35 kts, given the 700 mb flow. Blowing dust is very likely Friday afternoon downwind of Summer and Fossil lakes. In addition, relative humidities could still be on the low side which could result in enhanced fire weather concerns and this will be outlined in the fire weather discussion.

Precipitation wise, it's done deal the forecast could could get a significant amount of rainfall (the most in quite some time). The front has the markings of an AR (atmospheric river) with favorable upslope southwest flow which will lead to enhanced precipitation rates for the south Oregon coastal mountains and coast from Cape Blanco south. There remains some uncertainty, mainly with the aforementioned timing, but also in regards to the exact location of the main belt of moisture, with the EC ensemble trending slightly farther north than the GEFS members.

Precipitation will arrive as an Atmospheric River event, and although not as warm-sourced as a "Pineapple Express," the moisture profile is impressive (IVTs, a measure of moisture transport, are reaching values well above the 99th percentile for this time of year as the main belt moves onshore Saturday). Rain will push into the area late Friday evening in Coos and Douglas counties, then gradually spread to the Cascades overnight, before reaching the rest of the forecast area during the day Saturday. The heaviest precipitation is expected to occur Friday night through Saturday afternoon, with the coastal mountains in southwest Oregon, the Cascades, and the north coast likely to see significant rainfall amounts. Rainfall amounts will be less elsewhere, but still considered significant in the Umpqua Basin, east of the Cascades (especially in the northern Half of Klamath and Lake counties), and within the Rogue and Illinois valleys. Keep in mind, this much rain in one go could produce some concerns with run- off, especially over area burn scars where soils are not receptive to moisture. With area river levels low, mainstem river and stream flooding is not expected, but smaller drainages and areas downslope/valley from recent wildfires could be susceptible to increased flows and debris.

Gusty winds will be a concern once again on Saturday and the data supports even stronger winds aloft (700mb winds between 35 and 50 kts Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening, which would most likely allow winds to reach advisory criteria east of the Cascades, especially over the higher terrain, including the Summer Lake area and portions of Modoc and southern Lake counties.

The frontal system will continue to push southeast out of our area Saturday evening, but an upper trough will dig in behind it and we'll continue to see scattered showers Saturday night through Sunday afternoon just about everywhere. This upper trough is rather deep, and will usher in a colder air mass aloft and this along with surface heating could result in isolated thunderstorms from the coast to the Cascade crest in southern ORegon, and over the Modoc in northern California late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.

The upper trough axis will move through and set up east of our area Monday morning with showers gradually decreasing. The operational ECMWF and GFS dry things out pretty quickly overnight Sunday into Monday, but some light precipitation remains possible with the ongoing onshore flow, so we'll stay the course and keep a slight chance of showers Monday morning north of the Umpqua Divide, northern Cascades and portions of Lake and Klamath County.

Otherwise dry weather will return Monday as the upper trough departs and an upper ridge builds in overhead. With clearing skies, widespread areas of frost or freezing temperatures are possible east of the Cascades during the early morning hours, but otherwise, the region should see dry conditions early next week, with temperatures warming back to near normal values. In the last couple of cycles, the operational GFS and EC, along with many of their respective ensemble runs, have begun to resolve another trough arriving mid to late next week. Despite strengthening the prospective system in the latest run, the moisture profile appears much weaker than this weekend's event. Given the wide spread of solutions and the lack of confidence, have kept precipitation chances modest, but trended temperatures a bit cooler for the rest of the forecast term, given the likelihood of lower heights aloft. -BPN

AVIATION. 16/06Z TAFs . Conditions are expected to remain VFR through Thursday afternoon, except for areas of MVFR/reduced visibility due to wildfires. Smoke will be thickest during the overnight into Thursday morning, and from eastern Douglas County and Siskiyou County across the Cascades into Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties. An area of IFR stratus is expected to develop at the coast north of Cape Blanco late Thursday evening. -DW

MARINE. Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday 16 September 2021 . Gale force north winds will continue south of Cape Blanco and beyond 3 nm from shore until 11 am. Wind gusts could reach up to 45 knots between 10 to 20 nm from shore. However, most gusts should be around 35 to 40 knots. In addition to gales, very steep and hazardous seas will also persist south of Cape Blanco into Thursday morning while seas remain steep and hazardous to smaller craft between Florence and Cape Blanco.

A fairly strong front for this time of the year will move across the waters Friday through Friday night and will likely result in small craft advisory south winds and steep seas, especially for the waters north of Cape Blanco. West-northwest swell builds into the waters Saturday through Sunday with elevated seas while low pressure creates unsettled showery conditions. Swell dominated seas are then expected to slowly diminish early next week.

-DW/Smith

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday 16 September 2021 . Relatively quiet, but typical late summer conditions are expected through Friday morning. East to northeast winds will be gusty over the ridges of southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou County this morning, but recoveries should be somewhat improved over those of the previous night. Low humidities are forecast once again Thursday, but winds will be weaker.

A significant weather change is expected this weekend with the arrival of a strong, wet cold front and a deep trough that is likely to produce much cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation through the weekend. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected along the coast and east of the Cascades ahead of the front on Friday afternoon, but fortunately, humidities should rise enough to prevent most areas from reaching Red Flag criteria, with the exception of southeast FireWX zone 625, where critical conditions could be reached for an hour or two along the ridges as the winds pick up Friday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for this scenario, but as forecast conditions are marginal, further evaluation is needed.

Confidence remains high for a good dose of much-needed precipitation, which should begin along the coast Friday night, spread to the Cascades by Saturday morning, then to the rest of the forecast area through Saturday evening. Once the front passes late Saturday, the upper level trough will swing overhead, and showers are then expected through Sunday evening. A stray thunderstorm is not out of the question, especially along the coast in Douglas County, and along the Cascades crest. Wetting rains are expected for almost all of the area, with significant rainfall amounts possible along and west of the Cascades. This also means that debris flow/mudslides are possible in the most exposed portions of burnscars and though a low (~10%) probability of occurring, it is something we will be watching for.

I am hesitant to use the term "season-ending event" with this system, but the rain will make a significant dent in the season. While wetting rains are likely, and fire weather conditions should be much improved, ridging and dry conditions will be quick to return on the backside of the system early next week. Also, there are indications of some gusty east winds, especially over the ridges and the usual downslope locations Monday night into Wednesday, and as a result, fire weather concerns may quickly bounce back despite the rains. That being said, another wet front is possible mid to late next week, although the exact nature of the system remains uncertain at this time range. -BPN/Miles

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for ORZ625.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356. Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 8 mi83 min N 5.1 G 9.9 50°F1018 hPa
SNTO3 12 mi89 min NE 1.9 54°F 1019 hPa46°F
46128 19 mi119 min 50°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 29 mi63 min 52°F8 ft

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR2 mi63 minN 910.00 miFair59°F39°F48%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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N15N12N14N11N5N4N5CalmCalmCalmN4SE6CalmCalmCalmW5

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:46 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:22 AM PDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:15 AM PDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:22 PM PDT     3.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:16 PM PDT     7.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.11.50.4-0.2-0.20.61.83.24.55.45.85.75.14.43.73.33.43.94.85.96.87.27.16.3

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon (2)
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Charleston
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:46 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:19 AM PDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:15 AM PDT     6.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:17 PM PDT     3.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:09 PM PDT     7.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.21.60.4-0.1-00.823.44.75.76.165.34.53.73.33.44.15.16.27.17.57.36.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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