Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 3:01 AM   Moonset 2:11 PM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 828 Am Pdt Fri May 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning - .
Today - S wind 15 to 20 kt - .rising to 20 to 25 kt late afternoon. Cape arago southward, S wind 15 kt - . Rising to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft - .becoming sw 4 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. SWell W 3 to 4 ft at 7 seconds. Rain.Tonight - S wind 20 to 25 kt - .becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 3 to 5 ft at 7 seconds. Rain.Sat - W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 8 seconds. Showers likely through the day. Slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.Sat night - W wind 10 to 15 kt - .backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of showers. Sun - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Sun night - SW wind 15 kt. Wind waves W 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 7 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers.Mon - S wind 20 kt - .veering to sw in the afternoon, then - . Veering to nw. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 7 ft at 11 seconds. Tue - NW wind 10 kt - .veering to N after midnight. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 9 ft at 12 seconds.

PZZ300 828 Am Pdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A cold front will move through today into this evening with moderate to heavy rain, gusty south winds and steep seas. Following the front, seas will remain steep, dominated by fresh short period west swell Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers continue on Saturday with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. West seas trend less steep Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Another front arrives on Monday with the potential for gusty south to southwest winds followed by building west-northwest seas Monday night into Tuesday.

FXUS66 KMFR 031537 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 837 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

DISCUSSION
The forecast for northern California and southern Oregon remains on track for today. An approaching low pressure system will bring rain to the Oregon coast later this afternoon, with 80-100% chances for rain over Coos, Curry, and western Douglas counties. Lesser 50-80% chances are forecast for Josephine and eastern Douglas counties through tonight. The system will move eastward through the weekend, with winter weather impacts expected over the Cascades and western Siskiyou County and Advisory-level winds for parts of Lake County on Saturday.

Please see the previous discussion for more details about the short- and long-term forecasts. -TAD

AVIATION
03/12Z TAFs...Areas of LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings are present in the Coquille Valley up to North Bend and over into the Umpqua Valley near Roseburg. The lower conditions will lift to VFR this morning, but drop back to MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys as a potent cold front moves in with periods of moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation this afternoon. VFR will prevail elsewhere inland through late this afternoon/early this evening.

The front will spread moderate precipitation across the rest of the west side tonight, reaching east of the Cascades Saturday morning.
Expect widespread MVFR conditions and local IFR in rain with higher terrain obscured in rain/snow. A rapid drop in freezing levels will occur overnight (~09-15Z) from west to east and especially around 12Z Saturday morning near the Cascades. Rain will change to snow down to as low as 2500 feet with brief heavy snow in the mountains, reducing visibility to LIFR at times. Breezy south winds are expected with the front too, with peak gusts in the 40-50 mph range.
Despite the increasing winds, low level wind shear is not a concern at this time.

Conditions should improve a bit behind the front with precipitation becoming more showery, but still with a good amount of MVFR ceilings/visibility. -Spilde

MARINE
Updated 800 AM Friday, May 3, 2024...A cold front will move through today into this evening with moderate to heavy rain, gusty south winds and steep seas. Following the front, seas will remain steep, dominated by fresh short period west swell Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers continue with a slight chance of thunderstorms (20%) on Saturday. West seas trend less steep Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Another front arrives on Monday with the potential for gusty south to southwest winds followed by building west-northwest seas Monday night into Tuesday.
After that, we expect high pressure to build in mid-late next week with a thermal trough strengthening along the coast. This will bring a return of stronger north winds and steep seas, highest south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde



PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 501 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some marine stratus at the coast and in the Umpqua valley of Douglas County with some higher clouds beginning to move toward the coast. This is part of a more dynamic low pressure system that will be working its way through southern Oregon and northern California today into Saturday night. This low is not particularly strong, but it could bring some relatively significant precipitation to the area.
Precipitation will begin at the coast and spread inland throughout the day. With the low tracking in right overhead, initial amounts may be impacted by terrain influences (specifically downsloping causing less precipitation to reach the ground for inland valleys and upsloping at the coast and coast range to increase the precipitation). However, as the low moves across the area, the terrain influences will likely be overwhelmed, and this shot of precipitation could be relatively heavy for this time of year (especially early Saturday morning). A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the precipitation on Saturday, especially with a strong cold pool aloft as evidenced by quickly lowering snow levels.

In fact, snow levels will be coming down quickly from 8000 feet today to around 3000 to 3500 feet tonight. The snow levels could fall in alignment with the heavy precipitation which could facilitate a quicker changeover from rain to snow. This could lead to a period of inch per hour snowfall rates of wet snow in the Cascades and in Western Siskiyou County. Specifically, the HRRR is indicating a 60 to 80 percent chance of these inch an hour snowfall rates from 4 AM to 8AM, which could lead to decent accumulations. The NBM shows a 40% chance of seeing 6 inches of snow in the Cascades Saturday night. Have issued winter weather advisories for the Cascades north of Highway 140 and Western Siskiyou County above 4000 feet (mainly for Sawyers Bar Road near Mt. Etna). Other areas may see some snow, but accumulations are not expected to be as high.

In addition to the precipitation, winds will be a factor as well with this low. There will be a point where winds will largely be from the south along the front ahead of the low pressure system.
Statistical guidance is suggesting 40 mph winds at Weed in the Shasta Valley on Saturday night, which is reasonable due to the decoupling of the atmosphere likely ahead of the increase in winds (which is leading to the higher precipitation rates). However, after daybreak on Saturday, the winds will pick up from the south, and could reach 50 mph. This will largely be confined to areas of Lake County, Oregon and eastward. Have issued a wind advisory for the higher elevations of Lake County including the Winter Rim and Highway 31.

Showers associated with this low will linger through Saturday, although the heaviest precipitation and the gustiest winds will largely have concluded by Saturday night. Temperatures, however, will be relatively chilly and any wet roads along and east of the Cascades and in northern California may refreeze.

The flow pattern becomes more zonal for Monday and another impulse will pass through the area bringing additional showers and possibly some more thunderstorms to the area. Precipitation amounts should be relatively light even if snow levels continue to hover between 3000 and 3500 feet which is unusual for May.

The pattern then shifts Wednesday to a ridge of high pressure which will allow southern Oregon and northern California to warm up and dry out. This pattern will likely last into the weekend.

-Schaaf

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday above 4000 feet for ORZ027-028.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ030-031.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM PDT Saturday above 4000 feet for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Charleston
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Fri -- 02:49 AM PDT     2.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:30 AM PDT     6.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:11 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:43 PM PDT     6.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet

Charleston
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:46 AM PDT     2.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:25 AM PDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:01 PM PDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:11 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:41 PM PDT     6.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston, Oregon (2), Tide feet

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