Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Yoncalla, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:07PM Thursday March 4, 2021 5:41 PM PST (01:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:51AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 207 Pm Pst Thu Mar 4 2021
.gale warning in effect through Friday morning...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Tonight..S wind 30 kt...easing to 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and early morning, then...rising to 30 kt late tonight. Cape arago southward, S gales 35 kt...easing to 30 kt after midnight, then...rising to gales 35 kt late tonight. Wind waves 14 to 17 ft. NW swell 8 to 9 ft at 17 seconds...building to W 11 to 12 ft at 17 seconds. Rain.
Fri..S wind 30 kt...veering to sw 20 to 25 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Cape arago southward, S gales 35 kt... Easing to 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 14 to 17 ft...subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. W swell 10 to 11 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. W swell 10 to 11 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sat..SW wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to S 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 10 to 11 ft. Chance of showers through the day.
Sat night..S wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. W swell 8 to 9 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. W swell 11 to 12 ft...building to 17 to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Sun night..SW wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the evening... Becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 16 to 18 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Mon..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft after midnight. W swell 15 ft...subsiding to 12 ft.
Tue..S wind 10 kt...veering to W in the evening, then...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 10 ft... Subsiding to 7 ft.
PZZ300 207 Pm Pst Thu Mar 4 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters... Strong south gales and very steep wind-driven seas are expected this afternoon through tomorrow morning, with storm force winds likely this afternoon and again tonight into Friday morning. Winds will diminish Friday, but very steep seas are expected top continue into Friday evening. Steep seas and unsettled conditions are then likely to continue into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yoncalla, OR
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location: 43.54, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 050042 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 442 PM PST Thu Mar 4 2021

DISCUSSION. The cold front at the coast will stall as a separate low forms about 300 miles offshore. this will cause the front to continue to stall, with precipitation not moving inland from near the coast until late evening, and finally moving to the Cascades late Friday morning. The current forecast calling for wind gusts up to 70 mph appears on track on the coast. Most of these wind gusts up to 70 mph will occur near historically windy locations, like Cape Blanco and near Flynn Prairie. The impacts are isolated to scattered power outages as this cold front lingers offshore. the 75 knot 925 mb winds are still in the models ahead of the cold front, so that aspect of the forecast remains on track.

As the cold front slowly edges inland, the stronger winds will eventually spread to many locations farther to the east. The Shasta valley is main concern here with the Medford to Redding pressure gradient still persisting around 8 mb, which usually implies high wind warning gusts around Weed. The high resolution ensemble forecast(HREF) compiled from SPC is also showing the mean wind gusts around 50 knots around the Weed CA area. The impacts here are difficulties driving high profile vehicles. There may be isolated power outages as well.

As we move into Friday, the front is forecast to finally move onshore. We're concerned about the winds persisting into more of Friday as the HREF is showing those high wind gusts persisting through most of Friday in the Shasta and Rogue valleys. It should be noted most of our wind warnings and advisories go to 7pm Friday.

As the front moves onshore Friday moisture from an atmospheric river will be pulled into the flow, but the duration will only be around 12 to 18 hours. Usually snow levels don't drop until the front has moved through, and the bulk of the of the precipitation with it. However, models are indicating cold air wrapping around bringing snow levels down before the tail end of the front is through. This would bring low end warning snow amounts to western Siskiyou county to around 3000 feet in this area. Confidence is not high with this at this time, either with the cold air being wrapped around and thus snow amounts, or the snow level if this does happen. By sunrise Saturday showers will decrease with snow levels dropping to near the valley floors west of the Cascades, but current road temperatures in the 80s along the I-5 corridor are in the 80s, and any snow that falls on anything that isn't insulated from the ground should melt very quickly. Sven

Extended Discussion. (Sunday through Thursday) . Not much has changed in the overall scheme of things. Confidence is high a fairly active pattern will continue during the forecast period. However it may not be all that bad overall. It won't be completely dry, but there could be larger periods of dry time. By next week, storms originating from the Gulf of Alaska will drop down into the Pacific northwest. Typically these result in cooler and unsettled weather.

A cold front will weaken as it moves onshore Sunday which is being supported by operational ECMWF and GFS, thus limiting the amount of precipitation, especially inland away from the coast and coastal mountains. This is also being supported by the ensembles and individual ensemble members.

Monday through Tuesday, the general consensus is for the upper low to drop in from the northwest, but remain offshore Monday night into Tuesday which should keep precipitation at a relative min during the morning, then increasing in the afternoon and early evening hours. Even then precipitation is not expected to be significant enough where it's going to cause major issues for the higher passes. Some snow will accumulate over the higher passes, but not enough where it's going to be a concern.

While the exact timing this far out could vary over time, we are confident it will remain cool and unsettled Wednesday and Thursday. Not only the operational ECMWF and GFS show this, but so do the individual ensemble members of the ECMWF and GEFS. Precipitation amounts during this time are not expected to be significant at any one time during this period which will help to limit road snow concerns, especially during the daylight hours. Some snow will accumulate at night for the higher passes and possibly the lower passes on I-5 between Grants Pass and Canyonville. However, since its early to mid March, the longer daylight hours and higher sun angle should result in little or no road snow for the lower passes, at least during the daytime. -Petrucelli

AVIATION. For the 05/00Z TAF Cycle . The main concern during the TAF period will be low level wind shear for the coast, including North Bend and inland westside, including Roseburg and Medford. Right now, the strong winds have surfaced at most of these airports, which is precluding the need for the wind shear. However, once the winds at the surface die off, the wind shear will likely re- establish in these locations (as well as for other west side Valley airports).

Additionally, strong southeast to south winds will also impact south to north oriented valleys such as the Shasta Valley, and across the higher terrain, and some low level turbulence should be generally expected. Low level wind shear is not expected east of the Cascades due to moderate to strong winds aloft mixing down to the surface.

VFR ceilings and visibilities are generally expected through the TAF period, but there's a chance that they become MVFR as the front slowly moves ashore. So areas along the coast may see it this evening into tonight, West of the Cascades tomorrow morning and East of the Cascades Friday afternoon. Areas of terrain obscuration are expected anywhere it is raining. -Schaaf

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PST Thursday 04 Mar 2021 . Strong gales and periods of storm force winds are expected this afternoon into Friday morning along with very steep wind driven combined seas peaking in the 17 to 27 foot range. While storm conditions should remain beyond 10 nm from shore, storm force gusts are possible elsewhere, especially in the vicinity of headlands and capes. The highest combined sea heights are most likely to occur about 20NM west of Bandon and the lowest along and near protected portions of the coast.

Wave models have returned to indicating the possibility of a west- northwest swell peaking in the 13 to 19 foot by 16 second range Sunday into Monday. Thereafter, seas are expected to fall to below 10 feet on or about Tuesday. ~BTL/BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST Friday for ORZ030-031. Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Friday for ORZ029>031. High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022. High Surf Advisory until noon PST Friday for ORZ021-022. Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for ORZ026.

CA . Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Friday for CAZ084-085. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night above 3000 feet in the for CAZ080. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Saturday above 4500 feet in the for CAZ082. High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST Friday for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for PZZ370-376.

SBN/SBN/SBN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 54 mi66 min Calm G 6 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR21 mi49 minNW 510.00 miFair64°F30°F28%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRBG

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmS5S3----S14
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1 day agoNW9N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmN4N8N8N7N7
2 days agoN5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3CalmCalmN7N7

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:38 AM PST     7.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:36 AM PST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 PM PST     5.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:12 PM PST     1.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.23.44.96.277.26.65.43.92.41.10.40.40.923.24.355.14.743.12.32

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:23 AM PST     7.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:21 AM PST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:29 PM PST     5.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:57 PM PST     1.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.85.36.57.17.16.353.520.90.30.51.22.33.54.55.15.14.63.82.92.22

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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