Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Scar, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 7:33PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 6:32 AM EDT (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 3:18AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 324 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Friday morning...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of rain late this morning. A chance of rain with a slight chance of tstms early this afternoon, then rain likely with a chance of tstms late.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 15 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..NE winds around 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 324 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. The next frontal system approaches today with an increasing southwest flow ahead of it with rain showers possible over the waters and wind gusts near 30 kts. Westerly gales will be likely Thursday in the wake of this system's strong cold front. Winds will decrease Friday night and Saturday as weak high pressure moves over the waters. Another low pressure system approaches from the south on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scar, ME
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location: 43.56, -70.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 211030 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 630 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Rain and and some mountain snow will overspread much of the region this morning. As a cold front approaches from the west this afternoon, the chances for thunderstorms will increase. A few thunderstorms may be strong with strong gusty winds and frequent lightning, especially across southern New Hampshire and southernmost Maine. The cold front will move through the region late this afternoon or early evening. Much colder air arrives on Thursday along with strong west winds. A moderating trend is expected on Friday and Saturday before another storm system moves towards the region to end the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 630 AM Update . Have trimmed back sky cover across southern portions of the forecast area as satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies several miles south of a line from KLEB to KAUG. Areas that have experienced clear skies this morning has lead to some patchy ground fog and have put this in the forecast for the next couple of hours. Have also nudged temperatures up a degree or two for areas that will see more sun this morning resulting in highs approaching 70F across the Merrimack Valley.

Previous discussion .

Multiple weather impacts are expected today into Thursday. Confidence is increasing for the thunderstorm potential across southern New Hampshire into SW Maine early this afternoon into this evening with the passage of a cold front. These thunderstorms will have the potential for gusty winds with few storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Across the north wintry precipitation is expected this morning where a couple inches of wet snow will accumulate along the International Border before a change to rain early this afternoon. Precipitation will change back to snow across the north late this evening with accumulating snow from the mountains northward tonight into Thursday.

Low pressure is currently taking shape over Pennsylvania early this morning with a warm extending into southern New England. Ascent along and ahead of this front has brought some rain south of the mountains with a broken band of precipitation across northern New Hampshire into central Maine. Over the next several hours this band will bring snow and mixed precipitation to the mountains and snow along the International Border, while areas south of the mountains will largely be precipitation free this morning.

The warm front will advance northward towards the mountains later this morning allowing for wintry precipitation to change to rain while temperatures south of the front will rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s across southern New Hampshire and extreme SW Maine. The latest trends in hi res guidance has been for instability to tic upwards across southern New Hampshire into SW Maine with MLCAPE now into the 500 to 750 J/kg range. As mentioned above confidence is increasing for thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon for areas south and east of the White Mountains. Convective parameters have also trended upwards with portions of New Hampshire into western Maine now in the marginal risk category for severe storms per SPC.

The primary threat with these storms will be gusty winds with a few storms capable of producing damaging winds. The latest runs of the HRRR have been signaling that a few storms may form out ahead of the front . developing over New Hampshire just after 12 pm and into SW Maine around 2 pm. CAMs are highlighting decent updraft helicity with these storms and with mid level lapse rates approaching 7C/km, small to severe hail will also be possible with these storms. Later this afternoon the area of low pressure will be entering western New England around 3 pm with a line of storms along the cold front back through the Hudson Valley. As the area of low pressure tracks near Fryeburg the line of storms will enter SW New hampshire around 4 pm. This line of storms still looks to be strongest to our west with an overall weakening look as they track across southern New Hampshire into western Main from 4 pm to 7 pm.

Further north across the mountains to the International Border colder air will filter in allowing for any rain/mixed precip to change back to snow late this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Low pressure will track towards eastern Maine tonight with the cold front clearing the area towards midnight. This system will intensify overnight drawing in much colder air into the area. Snow is expected to continue in the mountains and north through the overnight where several inches will accumulate. Have issued a winter weather advisory for northern Coos county where the heaviest snow is expected late this evening into Thursday morning As mentioned in previous discussions. storm total snow looks impressive but have taken into account that some of this snow will fall this morning and then change to rain. As colder air works in, areas downstream of the mountains will have the chance for some snow before daybreak, but not expecting much in the way of accumulation.

Thursday will be cold and blustery with winds gusting to 40 MPH. Snow showers are expected to continue across the north where additional light accumulations will be possible into Thursday night. South of the mountains expect a clearing trend with highs in the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Low pressure will gradually move away from northern New England Thursday night and Friday but conditions will remain gusty and quite chilly. Any mountain snow showers should dissipate Thursday evening as a drier low level air mass works into the area.

Saturday will by far be the nicest day of the weekend with weak high pressure overhead which will aid in temperatures rebounding to well into the 60s.

The nice weather will be short lived however as the latest deterministic guidance as well as the majority of ensemble information are in reasonably good agreement that strong low pressure will track to near Cape Cod by late Sunday. This low pressure will offer us a good chance at substantial rainfall and and gusty northeasterly winds Sunday into Monday. There is still disagreement in the guidance as to how fast the storm moves out. Some members (such as the 00z ECMWF) close the low off nearby and would offer unsettled weather right through Monday. This scenario would likely allow for accumulating snowfall in the mountains. Other members of the 00z model suite are more progressive and clear us out during the day on Monday. Will have to continue to monitor model camps the next few runs to really hone in on duration of the inclement weather. For now, we are reasonably confident that Sunday and Sunday night will be quite wet and with a good potential to be windy.

There will also be an attendant threat for some coastal flooding around the times of high tide Sunday and Sunday night as astronomical tides will be high. This will depend on fetch and eventual dominant wind direction at the coastline.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term . Frontal system crossing the area will bring periods of MVFR today with IFR possible at KRKD and KAUG and south winds gusting to 20 to 25 kts. A cold front will cross this afternoon bring showers and TS with periods of IFR likely late this afternoon and evening. Areas of MVFR/IFR linger tonight with improving conditions into Thursday outside of the mountains.

Long Term . VFR expected Thursday night through Saturday. Strong west- northwest wind gusts in excess of 30kts are possible Thursday night which should gradually decrease late Friday. Another storm system likely affects all terminals on Sunday with the potential for low cigs, heavy rainfall, and gusty northeasterly winds.

MARINE. Short Term . Frontal system crossing the waters will bring increasing southerly winds with building seas today. Winds shift out of the west this evening with Game force winds expected late tonight through Thursday.

Long Term . Gale force gusts are expected Friday morning with winds/waves slowly subsiding into the weekend. Another significant wind/wave event is possible Sunday/Monday as another low pressure system moves into the Gulf of Maine.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for NHZ001. MARINE . Gale Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150>154.



NEAR TERM . Schroeter SHORT TERM . Schroeter LONG TERM . Ekster


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 7 mi44 min 46°F 46°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 8 mi32 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 45°F 1010.1 hPa39°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 21 mi92 min Calm 41°F 36°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 22 mi44 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 39°F 44°F1010.4 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 27 mi88 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 2 ft1010 hPa
44073 40 mi88 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 47°F 45°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 45 mi107 min Calm 40°F 1012 hPa38°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 45 mi32 min ESE 8 G 8 50°F 1009.5 hPa (-2.0)35°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME7 mi41 minNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F37°F93%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW33SE6S9S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Richmond Island, Maine
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Richmond Island
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Wed -- 12:01 AM EDT     2.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     8.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:46 PM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:06 PM EDT     7.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.43.44.96.57.98.58.37.564.12.41.31.11.72.94.66.27.47.97.66.65.13.4

Tide / Current Tables for Portland Head Light, Maine
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Portland Head Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:02 AM EDT     1.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     8.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:47 PM EDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     7.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.33.34.86.47.88.48.37.45.94.12.41.31.11.62.84.56.17.37.87.56.65.13.4

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