Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 11:50 PM   Moonset 7:05 AM

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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday - .peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.

PZZ300 221 Pm Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Gusty south winds, isolated showers and steep seas will continue into late this afternoon, resulting in conditions hazardous to small craft through all the waters. Winds shift to west and weaken this evening, but seas will remain steep and hazardous to small craft through late tonight. Overnight, winds will ease and seas will transition to longer period swell. Weak high pressure builds southwest of the waters Sunday, then another front will move into the waters Monday.

FXUS66 KMFR 272118 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 218 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Sunday night 4/28...RADAR imagery is showing a band of showers moving across southern Oregon and northern California along a frontal boundary. This frontal boundary has pushed a bit farther south than what was originally thought, and could put down some light rain largely along and west of the Cascades with a few areas east of the Cascades also picking up on the rain. These showers will largely dissipate overnight, but the cloudy weather will continue. This will help to moderate the overnight lows somewhat and keep them from reaching freezing west of the Cascades and in the upper 20s to low 30s east of the Cascades.

Generally unsettled, cloudy weather with a few lingering showers along the coast and in Douglas County will be possible on Saturday. Then, the next front will approach the Pacific Northwest Sunday night into Monday. The bottom line is that we are not expecting any hazardous impacts at this time. More information about this system is in the long term portion of the discussion below. -Schaaf

LONG TERM
Monday through Saturday, April 29 - May 4, 2024...
WNW flow aloft will continue to bring systems from the Gulf of Alaska into the PacNW early next week. This combined with low-level onshore flow will keep things on the cool, unsettled side with highest precipitation probabilities in NW sections of our CWA, while SE sections (south and east of the Cascades) remain on the dry side.

An upper trough will swing through Monday morning and this will bring a shot of showers (60-90% chance) to the coast eastward to the Cascades. We can't rule out a shower or two around the Rogue Valley/Medford area Monday, but most of the time will be rain free.
Snow levels will drop to as low as 3000 feet by Monday morning, but any snow accumulations will be confined to the mountains generally above 4500 feet. Highest amounts will be from about Crater Lake northward, where 2-5" could accumulate. Up to an inch of snow is possible over Highway 140 near Lake of the Woods with a skiff also possible on parts of Highway 97 north of Chiloquin. So, if traveling early Monday morning, be aware of the potential for some slick spots in those areas. South of the OR/CA border, we don't think much precipitation will make it over the mountains and it will just be partly cloudy. As such, it'll be cold first thing Monday morning for some frost in the lower Klamath, Scott and Shasta valleys.

This system exits to the east Monday evening, so shower chances diminish, but it will be followed by another upper disturbance that will swing through northern Oregon Tuesday and into Idaho Tuesday night into Wednesday. Once again, we'll be on the southern fringes of this system, so PoPs (for showers) remain highest across the north, lowest across the south. Snow levels bottom out near 2500 feet Tuesday morning, but again most, if not all, snow accumulation will be in the mountains north of Crater Lake. Overall, temperatures will remain near to below normal. Frost/freezing conditions west of the Cascades are becoming more likely given the main area of precip potential is north of the Umpqua Divide. Frost (lows 33-36F) chances (50-80% chance) are highest for a few hours in the typically colder locations (Illinois/Applegate Valley/Grants Pass areas) both Tue/Wed mornings. Freezing conditions (<=32F) are possible (20-30% chance)
in the Illinois Valley as well.

As the upper trough shifts to the east, things dry out on Wednesday with some sunshine and a slightly milder afternoon (high temps back closer to seasonal normals). Models maintain some degree of uncertainty after Wednesday with NBM still showing some PoPs (20- 30%) across NW portions of the CWA This stems from a smaller percentage of model members (GEFS/Canadian and to an even lesser extent ECENS) showing a flat upper ridge and a weak trough, you guessed it, skimming over the top Wednesday night into Thursday.
More plausible scenarios feature a bit stronger ridge and no precip along with a more significant warm up. We'll see how it shakes out, but it does appear that temperatures should rebound to above normal levels Thu/Fri. Models are showing a potentially more substantial trough moving in next weekend, but confidence in the details is low at this point. -Spilde



AVIATION
27/18Z TAFs...A front will bring some light rain and/or showers to the coast and over to the Cascades this afternoon and evening. VFR will be the predominant condition, though ceilings/visibilities could lower to MVFR (perhaps even local IFR) at times. Higher terrain will also be occasionally obscured.

For Medford and areas to the south and east, expected mostly VFR today. The front may cause isolated showers and brief lower ceilings. Winds will be occasionally gusty (20-25 kt) this afternoon/evening east of the Cascades, including at Klamath Falls, but strong winds are not expected.

Tonight into Sunday morning, mostly VFR will prevail, though areas of MVFR can be expected along the coast. -Spilde



MARINE
Updated 200 PM Saturday, April 27, 2024...Gusty south winds, isolated showers and steep seas will continue into late this afternoon, resulting in conditions hazardous to small craft through all marine areas. The front will continue eastwards and winds will shift to west and weaken this evening, but seas will remain steep through late tonight/very early Sunday.

Overnight, winds will ease and seas will transition to longer period swell. Seas do remain elevated, but they won't be as steep.
Relatively calmer conditions will likely continue through Sunday, then another front will move into the waters Monday and bring stronger winds. The pattern will continue to remain active next week, but we're not anticipating any hazardous conditions into at least the middle of next week. -CSP



MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Entrance
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Sat -- 02:14 AM PDT     6.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:22 AM PDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:20 PM PDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM PDT     3.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Reedsport
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Sat -- 03:20 AM PDT     6.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:43 AM PDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM PDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:11 PM PDT     2.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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