Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeside, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:10PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 3:22 PM PST (23:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:49PMMoonset 9:22AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 212 Pm Pst Wed Mar 3 2021
.gale warning in effect from 1 am pst Thursday through Friday morning...
Tonight..SW wind 5 kt...backing to S in the evening, then... Rising to 10 to 15 kt after midnight...rising to 15 to 25 kt late tonight. Cape arago southward, W wind 5 kt...backing to sw early in the evening, then... Backing to S 5 to 15 kt late in the evening...rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 to 6 ft after midnight. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..S wind 30 kt...rising to gales 40 kt. Wind waves 10 to 13 ft...building to 15 to 18 ft in the afternoon. Mixed swell nw 7 ft at 13 seconds and nw 5 ft at 17 seconds...building to 8 to 9 ft at 17 seconds and sw 1 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Thu night..S wind 30 kt...easing to 15 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Cape arago southward, S gales 35 kt... Becoming 30 kt after midnight, then... Becoming gales 35 kt early in the morning. Wind waves 14 to 17 ft. W swell 10 to 11 ft at 17 seconds. Rain.
Fri..S gales 35 kt...easing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 13 to 16 ft...subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. W swell 10 to 11 ft. Rain.
Fri night..S wind 10 to 15 kt...veering to sw after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. W swell 10 to 11 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..SW wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to S in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 10 to 11 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Sat night..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 8 to 9 ft...shifting to the W after midnight. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..S wind 10 to 15 kt...veering to sw 5 kt in the evening, then...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft... Becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 12 ft...building to 15 ft and sw 1 ft.
Mon..S wind 5 to 10 kt...rising to 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft. W swell 11 ft.
PZZ300 212 Pm Pst Wed Mar 3 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters...winds and seas will remain relatively light through this evening. Winds will shift south and increase as a strong slow moving front approaches the waters. Strong gales, periods of storm force winds, and very steep seas are expected Thursday into Friday. Steep seas and unsettled conditions are likely to continue into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeside, OR
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location: 43.58, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 031738 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 938 AM PST Wed Mar 3 2021

DISCUSSION. An update to the forecast is not necessary this morning. But, a cold front will usher in a very noticeable pattern change to windy and wet weather Thursday afternoon into early Saturday, with cooler temperatures beginning Friday night. High Wind Watches are in effect for portions of the coast, Shasta Valley, and east side (mainly Lake County). The focus for the afternoon package will be on the appropriateness of upgrading any of these headlines to a Warning, as well as the potential for adding other portions of our area into a Wind Advisory. Locations that may see advisory strength winds (mainly Thursday afternoon into Friday evening) include a larger portion of the east side, and the southern portion of the Rogue Valley.

Snow levels will be above 6000 feet through Friday, but will lower Friday night. Determining the impact of snow on Friday night will be a bit of a challenge with warm ground temperatures likely to melt fallen snow at elevations near the snow level . falling to 4200 to 4700 feet as snow tapers off late Friday night/early Saturday morning.

AVIATION. For the 03/18Z TAF Cycle . Along the coast and just offshore, MVFR and occasional IFR ceilings mainly north of Cape Blanco are expected to improve to VFR around 22z. However confidence is low and there's a chance it could be delayed by an hour or two. In fact, some guidance suggests the IFR to MVFR cloud deck could hang along through the day today.

South of Cape Blanco, VFR VFR conditions are expected through this evening and could possibly last into the overnight hours. South winds are expected to increase tomorrow morning as a front approaches and could be strong towards the end of the TAF period.

Inland westside. Recent Satellite image suggest low clouds in Coos and Northwest Douglas Counties are slow to burn off, but improvement should occur in these areas later this afternoon. Meanwhile low clouds are burning off in Roseburg. The TAF shows VFR developing by 19z, but this could be delayed by 1/2 to one hour, so watch for updates. Once VFR conditions develop, they will last into tonight before IFR ceilings develop again towards daybreak Thursday.

Elsewhere west of the Cascades, VFR ceilings are expected through the TAF period, although low clouds could develop towards daybreak again in similar places as this morning, but Medford will remain VFR.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. South winds will increase at Klamath Falls towards the end of the TAF period. -Petrucelli

MARINE. Updated 415 AM PST Wednesday 03 Mar 2021 . High pressure centered to our southwest will give way to a low pressure system moving into the area. This will cause light northerly winds to shift to southerly today. Meanwhile, steep west- northwest swell will gradually subside. Due to an ongoing buoy data outage and the fact that wave heights at the time of the outage were running 2 to 4 feet above wave model guidance, the Small Craft Advisory that was set to expire earlier this morning was extended to late this morning for most of the area and to 4 PM PST for the southeastern portion of the area between 10 and 60 NM of the coast west of Cape Blanco and Point Saint George.

A strong, slow moving frontal system will then approach tonight into Thursday resulting in strong gales, possibly a period of storm force winds, and very steep seas Thursday into Friday. While the greatest possibility of storm force winds is 10 PM PST Thursday night to 4 AM PST Friday morning, boundary layer winds of 50 to 55 knots and 925mb winds of 70 to 85 knots are present during the entire period of the Storm Watch. It would not take much for these low level jet stream winds to surface over the coastal waters.

Combined seas are now expected to peak in the 16 to 27 foot range Thursday night into Friday morning as very steep southerly wind seas and moderate 17 second period swell occur simultaneously. The highest combined sea heights are most likely to occur about 20NM west of Bandon and the lowest along and near protected portions of the coast.

The large, long period swell previously advertised to arrive Sunday into Monday has become less certain in terms of both timing and magnitude based on the data trends of the last 24 hours. Some wave guidance indicates it may be lesser than the previously forecast 20 foot peak seas, while other guidance suggests it may still be that high, but could be Wednesday into Thursday rather than Sunday into Monday. ~BTL

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 440 AM PST Wed Mar 3 2021/

SYNOPSIS . A windy and impactful weather system will move into the southern Oregon coast around Thursday into Friday. The higher winds will likely spread east throughout Thursday evening into Friday morning. By Sunday into Monday, another cold low will move into the Pacific Northwest.

DISCUSSION . We're starting off this morning with some low clouds covering portions of the coast near North Bend. There are also some high clouds traversing southern Oregon and northern California. Some of those high clouds should linger into the morning as some moisture around 300 mb will persist into the day. As for the remainder of today, we'll see high temperatures in the 60's for many of the valleys west of the Cascades, upper 50's east of the Cascades and lower 50's along the coast. Overall, these temperatures away from the coast are 5 to 10 degrees above their climatological normals for this time of year.

Heading into Wednesday night and Thursday morning, a low in the gulf of Alaska will continue to move towards the Pacific Northwest. There is a well defined cold front along with a plume of relatively warmer moist air ahead of the front. Our main concern will be the strength of winds ahead of this front. The north american ensemble forecast system shows winds along the coast in the 99th to 99.5th percentile for this time of year. Looking at some of the individual models, such as the GFS and ECMWF, also show 925mb winds around 65 to 70 knots. This is pretty strong for a winter system, let alone one in the early days of spring. Some locations along the coast will feel some of those high winds up to 65 knots as sounding profiles show mixing up to 950 and 925 mb Thursday.

Away from the coast, the winds won't be as strong, yet they still remain impactful to a degree. The Shasta Valley is a classic windy spot with south winds ahead of a well defined cold front. Pressure gradients from Medford to Redding vary from 7.5 mb up to 8.5 mb. Pressure gradients this strong have almost always resulted in wind gusts around 50 to 60 mph near Weed, CA. The main impacts here will be traveling with high profile vehicles through the Shasta Valley Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. East of the Cascades winds will also remain brisk, yet the 700 mb winds are around 45 to 55 knots with some models showing values up to 60 knots. Again, traveling in high profile vehicles along highway 31 is the main impact here.

Aside from wind, the precipitation forecast is also rather interesting. Integrated water vapor transport is expected to be around 500, which is high. However, the atmospheric river is pretty brief considering what we see during the winter and is almost entirely made up of southerly winds with very little westerly component. Therefore, models are putting most of the rain down along the coast with very little precipitation traveling inland into the western valleys or across the Cascades. Right now, we're forecasting about 2 to 3 inches of rain to fall over 12 to 18 hours in Curry County. This isn't enough to flood the larger rivers, but we'll have to consider issuing a product to highlight rapid rises to smaller streams and creeks, especially with 5000 foot snow levels. It should also be noted the heavy rain will fall west of the Slater burn scar, so we're not expecting any impacts there.

Another low is expected to move through the forecast area on Sunday into Monday. This low will likely be cold enough to support lower level snowfall with snow levels around 2000 feet. This seems reasonable and pretty likely as ensembles are forecasting temperatures in the 2nd percentile by Monday. Right now, the only area of concern will be the Shasta Valley and northwestern Siskiyou County. The NBM is forecasting 4-5 inches of snow in Mt. Shasta City with a fair amount of snow in mountains of western Siskiyou County. -Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Gale Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022. High Surf Advisory from noon Thursday to noon PST Friday for ORZ021-022. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for ORZ021-022. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for ORZ030-031.

CA . High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Gale Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for PZZ370-376.

DW/MAP/BPN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR12 mi26 minWNW 610.00 miFair49°F40°F71%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN17N14
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N12N6N3CalmNE4NE5S3S3SE4S3S4S3SE4SE4SE5SE5CalmCalmCalmW5NW6NW6
1 day agoCalmE5CalmCalmCalmNE3SE6SE6S5SE5SE3CalmSE6SE5SE4SE5SE5E6Calm--N7NW10N15N18
2 days ago--NW5NW4N4CalmCalmSE5CalmS4SE5S5SE8SE5SE6S6SE8SE6S3CalmW6NW7NW6NW5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
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Wed -- 02:50 AM PST     7.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:14 AM PST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:21 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:28 PM PST     5.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:08 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:04 PM PST     1.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:49 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.76.27.27.46.95.642.41.10.50.71.62.84.25.35.95.85.24.12.921.61.92.7

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Wed -- 03:56 AM PST     7.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:21 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:35 AM PST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:34 PM PST     5.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:08 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:25 PM PST     1.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:49 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.64.25.76.87.26.85.74.22.61.30.60.51.22.43.74.95.65.75.14.131.91.41.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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