Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:45 AM   Moonset 4:48 PM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 833 Pm Pdt Sun May 5 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Tonight - S wind 20 to 25 kt - .rising to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 6 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Rain.Mon - SW wind 20 to 25 kt - .becoming W 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Wind waves sw 6 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 5 to 6 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of rain in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 7 to 8 ft at 11 seconds. Showers likely and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight. Tue - NW wind 10 to 15 kt - .becoming 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 8 to 10 ft at 14 seconds. Tue night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 8 to 9 ft at 13 seconds. Wed - NE wind 5 to 10 kt - .becoming N 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 7 to 8 ft at 12 seconds. Wed night - N wind 20 to 25 kt - .easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 6 ft at 6 seconds. SWell nw 4 to 6 ft at 11 seconds. Thu - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 5 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NE wind 10 kt - .backing to n. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 10 seconds - . Subsiding to 3 ft at 10 seconds.

PZZ300 833 Pm Pdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Southwest winds will increase with another frontal passage tonight into Monday morning. Moderate swell-dominated seas follow Monday into Tuesday. A thermal trough will develop Tuesday afternoon with gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas peaking late Wednesday and persisting into Thursday night. The thermal trough will weaken late in the week.

FXUS66 KMFR 060524 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1024 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

New Aviation Section

.AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through early parts of this cycle, but an approaching front may tilt the odds in favor of MVFR. Confidence is highest (~70%) for North Bend to reach MVFR ceilings, but timing on that is going to be tough to nail down. That said, all the terminals will be within a couple thousand feet of MVFR, so low clouds in general are expected through this cycle. Additionally, light rain showers are expected through this cycle. The front will also bring breezy conditions on the eastside which will impact Klamath Falls tomorrow afternoon.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 831 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024/

DISCUSSION...Showers are tapering off this evening, though some linger over the Cascades. These dry(-ish) conditions in the region will be brief, as the next frontal system is visible around 100 NM offshore. Despite this incoming precipitation (and the increase cloudiness associated with it), conditions will stay clear enough in northern CA (and in the Rogue) that temperatures on the chillier side are expected overnight. While conditions will remain above freezing in the Rogue Valley, another Freeze Warning is in place for the Shasta and Scott valleys for early Monday morning.

The front will makes its gradual way inland overnight into Monday, bringing light to moderate precipitation to the area and breezy west winds, especially to northern Lake County where a Wind Advisory begins at 11 AM Monday. For more details on the forecast, please see the previous discussion below.
-CSP

AVIATION
05/18Z TAFs
A period of VFR will ensue until the front arrives later tonight. Once the front arrives, we will see precipitation chances return and MVFR conditions. North Bend is the most likely (~70%) terminal to reach MVFR, but the other terminals will be close at ~30-50% chances for MVFR conditions. Precipitation will be mostly in the form of rain showers, and coverage is expected to be isolated across the area. Lastly, the eastside of the Cascades will be breezy, so expect Klamath Falls to see sustained wind speeds around 20 mph gusting to around 30 mph both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

-Guerrero

MARINE
Updated 830 PM Sunday, May 5, 2024
Seas will become more chaotic as another front moves through tonight into early Monday morning. The resulting southwest winds are not expected to reach gale force conditions, but moderate swell-dominated seas follow Monday into Tuesday. A thermal trough will develop Tuesday afternoon with gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas, strongest south of Cape Blanco. Wind speeds will peak late Wednesday, but strong northerly winds will persist into Thursday night. During this stretch (Tues-Wed) we could see gale force winds come to fruition, especially across the southern waters. The thermal trough will weaken Friday into next weekend.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024/

SHORT TERM
Through Wednesday morning
Upper flow aloft around a low pressure system to the east of our area counties to bring showery activity across northern California and southern Oregon. For this afternoon, radar indicates that a wide area of showers remains over Lake, Modoc, and eastern Klamath counties with generally scattered showers elsewhere. This activity will decrease steadily overnight, with 20-40% chances of showers remaining over the Coos County coast and the Cascades through this evening.

Cold overnight temperatures remain in the forecast for Monday morning. There is high confidence in the temperatures for the Shasta and Scott valleys returning to at or below freezing tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for these areas from 2 AM through 9 AM on Monday morning to communicate this expected hazard. Similar to Sunday morning, the chance for near or at freezing temperatures in the southern Rouge and Illinois valleys remains, but is slight (5- 10%) and is not enough to support additional warnings for those areas.

A warm front will bring another round of activity on Monday, with showers arriving on the Oregon coast in the early hours of the morning and moving eastward through the day. Amounts look inconsequential, with a quarter to half an inch of rain over coastal areas and 2 to 6 inches of snow over the Cascades through Monday.
This front will also bring gusty winds, especially to areas east of the Cascades. A Wind Advisory will be in effect on Monday from 11 AM to 8 PM for northeast Lake County as gusts exceeding 40 mph are expected in this area.

Post-frontal showers will continue over the Oregon coast and the Cascades through the day Tuesday, but conditions look to be stable otherwise. Temperatures will start to warm as the upper trough moves away to the east. Afternoon gusty winds will be present east of the Cascades again, but are not forecast to reach Advisory levels.
-TAD

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday night.
The boundary between the short term and the long term is very appropriate today, with the the slow-moving trough exiting our region, and broad high pressure centered offshore building in for an extended stay. Lingering low level moisture is expected to produce early morning stratus in Douglas and Josephine counties, including Roseburg, Cave Junction, and Grants Pass. Otherwise, after another chilly morning, a pronounced warming and drying trend will get underway during Wednesday.

This warming will be most significant in southern Curry County with a Chetco effect of downslope warming expected to produce highs in the lower 70s for Brookings on Wednesday, lower 80s on Thursday, and lower 70s into Friday morning before the low level flow turns onshore. The peak of this warming trend at the coast is expected on Thursday. Elsewhere, today's highs at 20 to 25 degrees below normal, in the lower 50s on the west side and lower 40s on the east side, will seem a distant memory with Wednesday highs near normal at other portions of our coast, and several degrees below normal for inland sites. The warming will be kicked up a notch or two for the remainder of the long term, Thursday through Sunday, with lows above normal, and highs around 10 to 20 degrees above normal. The swing in temperatures from this weekend to next weekend will be in excess of 30 degrees, with the peak of this very strong warming trend expected at inland locations on Saturday.

A trough is likely to approach the area on Sunday, Day 7, with only slight cooling. The speed and position of this trough will be the main determinants in whether a risk of showers and thunderstorms develops on Sunday or holds off until Monday/Day 8.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ031.

CA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Entrance
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Sun -- 04:45 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:46 AM PDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:58 AM PDT     5.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:05 PM PDT     7.23 feet High Tide
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Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Reedsport
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Sun -- 04:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:08 AM PDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:04 PM PDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:02 PM PDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:24 PM PDT     Sunset
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Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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