Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeside, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:20PM Sunday September 19, 2021 9:30 PM PDT (04:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:16PMMoonset 4:20AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 825 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 am pdt Monday...
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kt...becoming 5 kt after midnight, then...backing to ne late tonight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..N wind 5 to 15 kt...rising to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. SWell nw 8 to 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 10 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. NW swell 7 ft at 11 seconds...subsiding to 5 to 6 ft at 11 seconds after midnight.
Tue..NE wind 10 to 15 kt...backing to N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. SWell nw 5 ft.
Tue night..NW wind 5 kt in the evening...becoming variable less than 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell nw 5 ft.
Wed..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell nw 6 to 7 ft.
Wed night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft after midnight. SWell W 6 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. SWell W 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt...backing to N in the afternoon, then... Backing to sw in the evening...easing to 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. SWell nw 5 ft.
PZZ300 825 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 19 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Steep, swell dominated seas continue tonight. A thermal trough will return Monday with steep seas for most areas, except very steep seas with winds near gale force south of cape blanco. The thermal trough will weaken Tuesday into Wednesday morning, then rebuild Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with steep seas possible south of cape blanco.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeside, OR
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location: 43.58, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 200337 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 837 PM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021

UPDATE. The skies are clearing, and showers have all but completely dissipated from the forecast area this evening. Quiet weather is expected over the next few days, with a warming and drying trend through Tuesday. The forecast is right on track, so no updates are necessary.See the previous discussion for more information on the rest of the forecast. -BPN

AVIATION. 20/00Z TAFs . VFR cumulus clouds will persist early tonight as this unstable airmass moves through. Some LIFR ceilings should build along the coast tonight as the airmass stabilizes under higher pressure. We should see some pockets of fog as well, although confidence is low of it forming around KOTH as the guidance is keeping it out of KOTH. Some low clouds could also form in the west side valleys as we clear out. With the recent rainfall and clouds clearing out overnight, low ceilings are realistic. By tomorrow, skies will be VFR with drier east winds building over the region.

-Smith

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PDT Sunday 19 September 2021 . A thermal trough will return tonight and strengthen into Monday. Northerly winds will increase Monday into Monday evening with steep seas for most areas, except very steep seas with winds near gale force south of Cape Blanco.

The thermal trough will weaken Tuesday. Winds and seas will be relatively light Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with a very weak front brushing past to the north. The thermal trough will rebuild Wednesday into Thursday with gusty north winds and steep, building wind driven seas. Winds will again be strongest south of Cape Blanco. -DW/Smith

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 253 PM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021/

DISCUSSION . Cumulus still dominates the skies and a few faint radar returns linger over Douglas County and along the Cascades. The radar returns will diminish, but the cumulus cover should last into the night time.

Looked further into the freezing and near freezing conditions east of the Cascades. Will withhold any freeze products as it appears the only places with more than a couple of hours of freezing conditions are well up into the Cascades. Widespread areas of frost are expected though and it is not impossible some patchy wisps of fog form near pools of remaining water (if that exists in the drought stricken landscape).

Next up is a broad region of high pressure over much of the western CONUS. Beneath the high pressure a thermal trough will build along the coast. This setup will result in a period of east flow that ramps up late tonight and continues through Monday night. Winds will be strongest along the coast, but they will be gusty along exposed portions of the Cascades and through the narrow gaps too. Drying should not be as extreme as with most east winds, but it will begin to negate the benefits of the rain.

There will be a brief interruption Wednesday when a trough rides over top the building ridge. Rain chances remain below 15% even along the coast. There is likely to be a healthy marine push into the coastal valleys and some portion of the Umpqua Basin. Fog and accumulating drizzle will be possible, but it will only delay the warming and drying all other areas will experience. The east flow will cease because of the trough and winds will become westerly. East of the Cascades, winds will not see much increase as the strength of the ridge will be building too fast.

High pressure will continue to build the rest of the week. The ridge axis will be directly over the west coast. By Friday, temperatures will climb into the low 90s in west side valleys, around 10 degrees above climo. Elsewhere, temperatures will be between 5 and 10 degrees above normal. Nearly a week of drying weather will occur during this time.

This is where the forecast becomes contorted. Majority of ensemble members show low pressure forming in the Baja area. This is then ingested into the region of high pressure weakening it and shifting the ridge axis east over the spine of the Rockies. This will do little to our weather except to lower temperatures. We will remain dry.

The N. Hemisphere wave pattern will decrease in count to 3 or 4 during this time. Normally a sign of silent weather. However, the means of the GEFS and ECMWF both show that one of the three waves will be heading towards the west coast. What effect the trough will have will have after an extended period of ridging is still unknown, but activity should pick up around the end of the month. That is, if the solutions showing the low near Baja forming come to fruition. If they do not, high pressure is likely to remain firmly planted of the western CONUS. -Miles

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday 19 September 2021 . The primary fire weather concern in the near term is east winds and poor to moderate recoveries over the ridges Monday night. Due to the recent rains, fuels are still wet. Fuel specialists and IMETs in the affected areas agree that the fuels will be too wet to allow any fires to spread rapidly. The one exception is zone 616, where there are more fine fuels that can dry out rapidly. At this time, most of the areas of forecast critical conditions are in zones 617, 619, and 621. Given all of the above, have opted not to issue any fire weather related watches and warnings. However, there will be a headline in the Fire Weather Forecast. Once any remaining showers dissipate this evening, the remainder of the month looks to be warm with little or no precipitation.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 3 PM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 19 mi55 min Calm G 1 58°F1025.2 hPa
SNTO3 23 mi61 min Calm 54°F 1026 hPa54°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 26 mi65 min 56°F10 ft
46128 29 mi91 min 58°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR12 mi35 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist57°F55°F93%1025.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN4NW3S3SE4SE4SE7S3SE6SE6SE8SE8SE9SE7SE8W11SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:08 AM PDT     7.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:31 AM PDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:58 PM PDT     6.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM PDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 06:46 PM PDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:39 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.16.85.74.22.410.10.10.92.23.85.36.36.76.35.23.82.51.61.41.934.45.7

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:14 AM PDT     6.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM PDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:04 PM PDT     6.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM PDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 07:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:38 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:07 PM PDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.36.86.75.84.42.71.30.300.51.73.34.966.56.25.23.92.61.61.11.42.43.8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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