Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeside, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday August 13, 2020 4:55 PM PDT (23:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 3:19PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 254 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Tonight..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft... Building to 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds...shifting to the W 2 ft at 4 seconds after midnight.
Fri..N wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri night..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. Mixed swell nw 1 to 2 ft at 13 seconds and S 1 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W wind 5 to 15 kt...backing to S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the evening... Becoming 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 ft and S 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Sun..S wind 5 kt...veering to sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..SW wind 5 to 15 kt...backing to S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 ft.
Mon..SE wind 5 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..N wind 5 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft.
PZZ300 254 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. The thermal trough will strengthen this evening causing winds to increase and seas to build and steepen. This evening through Friday the trough will lift northward causing winds and seas to build for areas north of cape blanco. The trough is then expected to shift westward Friday night into Saturday causing winds and seas to subside. A wind reversal to southerlies is expected Saturday into Sunday which is likely to result in fog, low clouds, and a possibility of drizzle. Light northerly winds are expected to return Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeside, OR
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location: 43.58, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 132342 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 440 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

The Aviation section has been updated .

DISCUSSION. There are two main concerns to speak of today. The first is the upcoming heat wave, of which we are fairly confident in the strength and duration. The second is the chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms this weekend, of which there is little confidence in timing or location. Before getting into these, there are the smaller concerns to discuss, primarily smoke and coastal fog.

Smoke form the Red Salmon fire in Humboldt County, CA, continues to be produced in abundance, and the prevailing flow is taking this smoke and haze to the northeast over our area. Winds today have been a bit more out of the south, and this may push the smoke more into the Rogue Valley and Klamath Basin today and tonight. While we do not expect to be smoked out, increased haze and somewhat smokey air is not out of the question for the next several days, as the overhead pattern is not expected to change much.

Along the coast, although warm temperatures and mostly clear and dry conditions are expected through Saturday morning, there are indications that winds will swing to the south, and cooler, moist air will surge north along the coast by Saturday night. While cooler temps will likely be welcomed there, fog and low clouds may accompany the surge, with visibilities dropping considerably.

Now on to the meat of the forecast: the heat. A large and robust upper level ridge has developed over the southwestern US, with a closed low meandering offshore of California. This has placed northern California and southern Oregon under southerly flow aloft, with ridging building at the surface. Meanwhile, a thermal trough has developed along this coast, and will make a push inland this weekend. Warm temperatures today will warm further Friday, then reach a peak Saturday afternoon for the bulk of the area. Daytime highs and nighttime lows are expected to be well above normal for this time of year (traditionally the hottest time of year already), with daily records likely to be met or broken west of the Cascades. Temperatures of 110 or more are entirely possible in some portions of the area. Temperatures will cool ever so slightly Sunday, but will remain very hot. Over the past few runs, models have trended warmer for the entire weekend and into early next week, with only very gradual and slight cooling after Sunday. Our heat watches have been upgraded to Warnings and Advisories across the area. Details can be found at PDXNPWMFR. Prepare now for a very hot weekend, and make plans to keep cool and hydrated through what will likely be the hottest days of 2020. Although the cool lakes and streams may be tempting, be sure to take the proper precautions and wear your life jackets, as water temperatures can still be as low as 50 degrees in local rivers.

Next, thunderstorm chances. One of the results of the upper level southerly flow mentioned above, is that moisture will begin streaming into the area as early as Friday evening. Much of this moisture Friday into Saturday appears to originate with the remains of Hurricane Elida, currently entrained by the offshore low moving up the California coast, then by more monsoonal processes Sunday. There are a number of uncertainties regarding these storm chances, mainly in regards to where the moisture will track, and where/when the initiation will occur. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for much of the area Saturday afternoon and evening, but the best chances right now appear to be over western Siskiyou County into far southwestern inland Oregon and across the East Side. although a stray thunderstorm could just about happen anywhere. On Sunday, these chances shift to almost entirely the East Side before exiting our area to the east by Monday. Hopefully the higher resolution models, which are now starting to resolve the time period in question, will provide some increasing confidence in the coming forecast shifts. If folks do seek relief from the heat in the mountains or area lakes and rivers, be sure to keep aware of thunderstorms, and seek shelter immediately if thunder occurs.

It should be noted that the moisture streaming into the area, and any thunderstorm activity, could produce mid to high level cloudiness that may "shade" some areas, keeping temperatures cooler than forecast. These clouds could also inhibit further development of thunderstorms downwind. With these uncertainties, be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecasts as the events unfold.

The vast majority of model data suggests by mid to late next week, conditions will become cooler and closer to normal, and a shift to more westerly flow aloft should lower or end thunderstorm chances. -BPN

AVIATION. For the 14/00Z TAFs . Clear skies are expected to continue for most areas through the TAF period. The two exceptions to this are, 1) Smoke from the Red Salmon Fire, which will reduce visibilities in Siskiyou County in the vicinity of it and mainly west-north of it, and 2) Visibility and ceilings reductions in the LIFR to MVFR range will be possible south of Brookings and north of Cape Blanco, primarily for offshore and immediate coastal locations, in the 03Z to 15Z time frame. However, these reductions should be patchy and short lived as drying northeast flow off the land generally prevails. ~BTL/miles

MARINE. Updated 255 PM PDT Thursday, 13 August 2020.. The thermal trough will strengthen this evening causing winds to increase and seas to build and steepen. This evening through Friday the trough will lift northward causing winds and seas to build for areas north of Cape Blanco. The trough is then expected to shift westward Friday night into Saturday causing winds and seas to subside. A wind reversal to southerlies is expected Saturday into Sunday which is likely to result in fog, low clouds, and a possibility of drizzle. Light northerly winds are expected to return Monday. ~BTL

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, 13 August 2020 . A red flag warning remains in effect until 8 pm this evening for most of Modoc County in Fire Weather Zone 285 due to a combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity. Winds will ease overnight and while humidities will remain quite low -- down in the 10-15% range Friday afternoon -- winds should not be quite as strong. So, no additional wind/rh highlights are expected there then. While not sufficient to warrant a red flag warning, breezy north winds and low humidity will impact the Umpqua Valley and potentially the Coast Range in Coos County Friday afternoon.

Meantime, an upper low off the southern California coast will wobble westward. This system is bringing some lightning offshore well southwest of San Francisco Bay this afternoon. An area of moisture will lift northward Friday, but forcing when it gets this far north will be weaker. Isolated storms may develop in the Yolla Bollys or over the Sierra Friday afternoon/evening, but probably stay south of our area. Something to keep an eye on, however.

The hottest weather of the season so far is expected this weekend as an upper ridge strengthens near the Four Corners and expands northwestward into the Great Basin. Temperatures are likely to challenge or surpass record levels. Humidities will remain rather low as well, but the upper level trough off the West Coast will allow deep southerly flow to bring mid-level moisture northward into the area Saturday. This will bring an isolated threat of lightning to portions of the area during the afternoon and evening. Moisture, forcing and instability aren't overly robust, but models support isolated thunderstorm development in western Siskiyou County and also portions of Modoc and Lake Counties during this time frame. Mid- level flow is shown to be around 15 kt or so and this should be able to allow any storms that do develop to move northward and off the terrain during the evening. This could bring some up the Cascades and also over the Siskiyous into southern Jackson and the Kalmiopsis Wilderness. Right now, coverage and location of storms is still uncertain, so we're holding off on a Fire Weather Watch. However, we will be headlining the potential in the Fire Weather Planning Forecast.

By Sunday, the closed low out around 130W will eject northeastward and this will increase the gradient across the area. Afternoon winds could become gusty at times and with humidity already quite low, we may need to consider additional highlights for wind/low RH, especially over the east side and in Modoc County. Moisture, instability and forcing will be greatest along and east of the Cascades, so there is still an isolated thunder risk for those areas in the afternoon/evening, but the best chances are NE of our area. We'll remain in S-SW flow aloft through at least Tuesday, so the hot weather looks to continue, albeit not quite as hot as over the weekend. Isolated thunder chances continue in far eastern sections. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Heat Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ027>029. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ024-026. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ021-022. Excessive Heat Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ023-025.

CA . Heat Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ082>084. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ080-081. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ285.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ370. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 19 mi80 min N 8 G 14 64°F1020.3 hPa
SNTO3 23 mi86 min N 7 60°F 1021 hPa50°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 26 mi90 min 55°F5 ft
46128 29 mi56 min 50°F 50°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR12 mi60 minN 20 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy66°F48°F54%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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N9N10N4N5N3NW4N4NW3N3S3CalmCalmCalmNW6N11N16N20
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Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:57 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:39 AM PDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:27 AM PDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM PDT     3.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:19 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:14 PM PDT     6.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.81.31.21.62.12.93.64.14.44.44.13.83.53.43.64.14.85.566.36.25.64.7

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:56 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:00 AM PDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:33 AM PDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:05 PM PDT     2.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:19 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:20 PM PDT     6.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.71.81.211.21.82.53.33.94.24.23.93.532.833.54.255.76.165.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.