Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 1:16 AM   Moonset 9:31 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 505 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .
Today - South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Patchy fog until late afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Tonight - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering west after midnight, then easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight. Tuesday - West wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then backing southwest early in the afternoon backing south late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Tuesday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 290920 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A few patches of dense fog possible this morning along and north of a Milwaukee to Madison to Lone Rock line.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this morning into early this afternoon. Severe storms and any flooding are very unlikely.

- Above normal temps likely Today through Thursday, cooling off towards normal this weekend.

- Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Tuesday evening/night. A stronger system with additional showers / thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly continuing into Friday.

SHORT TERM
Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Today through Tuesday:

The stalled front currently spans from east to west across our CWA (roughly northern Milwaukee suburbs to Madison to Lone Rock), with areas along and north of the front experiencing intermittent fog, with a few patches beneath 1 SM visibility.
The front is expected to begin a gradual drift northward over the next few hours, with gentle southerly winds developing and fog dissipating as it passes. Any lingering fog should dissipate before noon today. WAA south of the front will allow temps to rapidly climb to roughly 70 degrees today, with some sunshine peeking though scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds.

Scattered showers are expected (possibly with some thunder) this morning, becoming more isolated and clearing out this afternoon.
Severe weather and flooding from said activity are highly unlikely, given a lack of sufficient CAPE to balance with the 60+ kts of deep shear in place. Any showers / storms are likely to be shredded by the shear before they can become fully developed. Dry weather prevails this evening into Tuesday, with similarly warm daytime high temperatures (near 70) and mostly sunny skies.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Showers are expected Tuesday evening/night as a shortwave swings through. Instability will be diminishing as the wave approaches, with models showing a general decrease in coverage/intensity of precip as it moves into southern Wisconsin. Looks like enough forcing and moisture for higher confidence in precip (60%+) in the north, with decreasing chances towards the south. Still thinking there could be some thunder as the showers move into the area.

High pressure will briefly return on Wednesday, with dry weather and mild temps into the low 70s. A stronger low pressure system is then expected to gradually lift through the region Wednesday night through Friday. Rounds of showers are likely (60%+) at times with this system, with some occasional thunder also possible. Models are still showing the highest chance for thunderstorms on Thursday, as the warm sector pushes into or close to southern Wisconsin. There are some indications that some of the storms could be strong to severe on Thursday, if the better forcing moves through closer to peak daytime heating and instability. A lot of time left for details to change, but this is worth keeping an eye on. Above normal temps are likely through Thursday, cooling back towards normal by the weekend.

DDV

AVIATION
Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Patches of dense fog (possibly as low as 1/4 SM) are possible this morning along and north of a line from Milwaukee to Madison to Lone Rock WI. The warm front (positioned along said line)
will progress northward after sunrise today, clearing out the fog and allowing southwest winds (gusting upwards of 20 kts) to develop this afternoon. With the front / fog boundary being positioned in northern Milwaukee county already, KMKE airport has remained free of fog in recent observations, and will likely remain so.

Scattered showers are expected this morning, decreasing in coverage and eventually clearing out this afternoon. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at this time, but severe weather is not expected. Dry weather prevails this evening through the daytime hours of Tuesday.

For airports currently in MVFR or IFR (generally, north of the front), a gradual improvement in cloud ceilings is expected today as the front progresses. Expecting diurnal cumulus (maintaining roughly BKN coverage) to lift to 3500 ft by the mid afternoon today.

Sheppard

MARINE
Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Low pressure around 29.7 inches will continue northeastward through Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin this morning, crossing Lake Superior early Tuesday. The warm front of this low pressure currently rests over central Lake Michigan, and will resume its northward motion by sunrise today, reaching the northern end of the lake by tonight. Areas of fog are expected over the lake this morning. Areas south of the warm front are expected to see the fog lift by this afternoon, while patches of fog linger along and north of the front.

South winds to 20 kts are expected south of the front today, with gusty east winds north of the front (northern quarter of the lake). Nearshore zones may see south winds up to 25 kts, hence the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until this evening.
East gusts to gale force are possible over the far northern tip of the lake this morning. When the front finishes crossing the lake late tonight, gentle southwest winds are expected for all areas. South winds to 15 kts expected Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, but storms are not expected to be severe at this time.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Monday.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Milwaukee, WI,