Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Grove, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:15PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 5:13 PM CST (23:13 UTC) Moonrise 5:06PMMoonset 7:28AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 506 Pm Cst Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then backing southwest after midnight backing south 5 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..South wind 15 to 25 knots rising to up to 30 knots late in the morning, then easing to 15 to 25 knots early in the afternoon veering southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of drizzle and snow in the morning, then rain and snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the morning, then building to 7 to 9 feet early in the afternoon subsiding to 6 to 8 feet late in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Slight chance of drizzle through the night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing south late in the afternoon. Slight chance of drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ643 Expires:201912120500;;210248 FZUS53 KMKX 112306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-120500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Grove, WI
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location: 43.58, -87.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 112113 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 313 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

SHORT TERM.

Rest of this Afternoon through Tomorrow Night . Forecast Confidence Medium to High .

Quiet conditions will persist this evening, as high pressure continues to push southeast through the region. Low pressure taking shape over the High Plains will lift into the Lower Great Lakes tomorrow morning. Precipitation will begin to overspread the area from the northwest during the mid day hours, and will initially be in the form of snow. Temperatures will be right around freezing, and the best lift will be focused to our north, so only light accumulations are expected. Right now, it appears that snow will be mostly confined to areas north of I-94, with a dusting to up to 1-2 inches possible.

Heading into the late afternoon and evening hours, cloud ice will be lost, with precip changing to a mix of drizzle and freezing drizzle, depending on exact surface temperature. A glaze of ice will be possible from this activity late tomorrow afternoon and evening, which could cause some travel impacts across the region.

LONG TERM. Friday through Saturday . Forecast Confidence: Medium .

There is a deepening trough that will be moving through the Southern Plains out into the eastern CONUS over the weekend. There is a weaker shortwave that will begin to descend into the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday that could bring some light precipitation to the area. During this period, there is expected to be sufficient moisture and temperatures at the surface will be dropping. As the weak shortwave moves into the region, the GFS and ECMWF are showing the initial surface temperatures in the mid 30s and a larger warm layer near the surface, so precip type would start as liquid. Middle level dry air will introduce a chance of freezing drizzle from Friday night through mid Saturday. Right now there is a lot of uncertainty about sufficient moisuture and timing for freezing drizzle. Precip should transition to snow during the day Saturday. Any snow accumulations would be light.

Sunday through Tuesday . Forecast Confidence: Low .

As the system moves out of the region on Saturday, high pressure and cold air return to southern Wisconsin. The high pressure system will linger in southern Wisconsin Sunday into Monday morning. During this time there is a low pressure system that will be forming in the southern plains. This is where the models start to disagree and lots of uncertainty is introduced. The mid level trough will be digging further south and strengthening for the ECMWF solution, while the GFS solution has the mid level trough moving through the central CONUS. When looking at the moisture transport and associated surface low pressure systems, the ECMWF solution has the track of the low much farther south and little to no moisture present. This would give southern Wisconsin no precipitation accumulations. While the GFS solution has the moisture transport and track of the low moving through IL. This track would give southern Wisconsin a far greater chance of precipitation. The GFS and ECMWF model solutions best represented the spread of all of the models available, which demonstrated a spread where southern Wisconsin could either get no precipitation or had increasing chances for precipitation.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS).

Winds settle down this evening, and will likely become light and variable for a time. South to southeast flow will develop late tonight, as low pressure develops and pushes toward central Wisconsin.

On Thursday, expect to see an area of mainly light snow begin to affect the region during the late morning hours. Madison has the best chance of seeing this activity, but for the most part, the more impactful snow will remain north of the terminals. Snow is then expected to transition to light drizzle and/or freezing drizzle tomorrow afternoon and evening, which will likely impact most of the area.

MARINE.

Southerly winds will increase on Thursday, with gales expected across all but the far northern-most portions of the open waters. A Gale Warning is in effect starting mid morning, continuing into the evening.

For the nearshore, winds should remain just below gale force, but will be quite gusty with high waves. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening.

Another front will pass through the lake on Saturday night, with a return of gusty northwest winds.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for LMZ080-364-366- 563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for LMZ643>646.



Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine . Boxell Thursday Night through Wednesday . Patterson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 13 mi94 min W 8 G 9.9 18°F 1033.2 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 14 mi74 min W 8.9 G 13 15°F 1033.6 hPa (+2.3)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi34 min WSW 6 G 8 19°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI14 mi81 minW 910.00 miFair13°F0°F56%1033.4 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI18 mi79 minW 810.00 miFair16°F0°F48%1031.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W10W6W9W9W7W9W11W12W15
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1 day agoW8W17
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2 days agoCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE4NE4NE6N5N5N7N6NW3N3CalmCalmCalmSW4W12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.