Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oostburg, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 031715 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

UPDATE. Winds are beginning to slowly veer more to the north along the lakeshore late this morning and expect this trend to continue with winds becoming north to northeast for a time later today into tonight. Wave heights are in the 3 to 5 foot range along the shore, so some increase in waves is still likely. Wl continue Lake Shore Flood Advisory for now along with Beach Hazard Statement. Lowered max temperatures a few degrees for today, more into the mid 60s to around 70.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS). MVFR clouds will persist this afternoon and will linger into a portion of tonight. Possible sct-bkn lower stratus may linger through the night into Tuesday, but confidence is low for this solution. Wl continue clearing trend tonight with caveat of mentioning sct clouds at lower levels through the night.

A few light showers still possible this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 920 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020)

UPDATE . Reamplification of long wave trof from southern Canada into the western Great Lakes as a mid-level short wave rotates southeast may bring more showers to parts of southern WI this afternoon and tonight. Expect clouds to persist much of the day due to thermal trof and weak low level cold air advection persisting along with low to mid level cyclonic curvature. Clouds should at least partially clear in some areas tonight. High temperatures may be optimistic, and may need to lower in some areas.

MARINE .

Nearshore . Winds are currently northwest at the shore but are expected to turn to the north to northeast today and continue into tonight. Gusty winds to 25 knots will continue which will continue to cause higher wave heights. Hence the Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the nearshore waters into Tuesday.

Open Waters . Winds are already more north to northeast over the Lake Michigan open waters and seeing gusts reach 25 kts at some buoys and lakeshore sites. Lake induced low level instability and weak low level convergence may contribute to a couple more waterspouts over the open waters today.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 644 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020)

UPDATE .

Light showers/drizzle/sprinkles are still scattered about southern WI this morning due to continued vorticity advection. The low clouds are expanding westward, and now a line from DLL to MSN to EFT is on the western edge of the cloud shield. Expect clouds to become more cellular as the day goes on due to the steep low level lapse rates. There should be another round of light scattered showers that develop this afternoon, at least for southeast WI.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

A line from DLL to MSN to EFT is on the western edge of the low cloud shield with bases around 2000 ft. Some IFR ceilings are lingering in southeast WI but expect improvement soon. The gusty northerly winds in the wake of the cold front diminished somewhat overnight, but expect them to resume by mid morning and persist into this evening. Look for MVFR ceilings to improve to VFR late this afternoon and gradually clear from west to east later tonight into Tuesday morning. Diurnal cumulus clouds with bases around 5000 ft are expected Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 413 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Tuesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium to High.

Today will be a raw day with mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and gusty northerly winds. Highest chances for rain and clouds will be near the lakeshore, with inland areas west of Madison having the best chance for more breaks in the clouds.

An upper level low pressure trough will continue to sit over the Great Lakes region through Tuesday. A series of vorticity maxima are rotating through southern WI and causing persistent scattered showers. The scattered showers over southeast WI are slowly moving eastward toward the open lake this morning with one shortwave. Cyclonic flow and steep low level lapse rates will allow for pop- up showers across most of southern WI today, with highest coverage over southeast WI. Shower chances diminish over far southeast WI tonight and any showers on Tuesday should remain off shore.

Cold air advection will allow for gusty northerly winds through Tuesday morning, with diminishing winds later in the day as high pressure moves in. High temperatures will struggle to reach 70 today and tomorrow. Lows tonight will be around 50 inland from the lakeshore.

Persistent north to northeast winds, aided by high lake levels, will bring high waves to the shoreline today and tonight, with lingering high waves over shoreline areas of Racine and Kenosha County likely persisting through midday Tuesday. A Lakeshore Flood Advisory is in effect.

The high waves will create dangerous swim conditions, so a Beach Hazards Statement is also in effect for today through Tuesday.

LONG TERM .

Tuesday night through Thursday night . Confidence is Medium.

The upper low will finally begin to push east late Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure settles in behind the departing system. Winds aloft stay our of the north during this period and with drier air in place we should have a brief stretch of below normal temps. Then as we head into Thursday a ridge across the western US amplifies and will send a shortwave out of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. This will cross the region on Thursday and although drier air at the surface should hold, winds aloft shift to the south. This system will also be bringing its own slug of moisture.

Models continue to differ on the timing and overall shape of this shortwave with both the GFS/NAM showing a more stretched shortwave rolling through. The ECMWF/CMC keep the feature a bit more intact. If the slower timing occurs the best forcing would occur during the afternoon hours and more scattered thunderstorms would be possible. With lingering uncertainty will keep with slight chances for now.

Friday through Sunday . Confidence is Medium.

Winds become more southerly as we head into the weekend and the western ridge shifts east to the southern plains. Expect a warming trend in temps over the weekend with increasing storm chances. The ridge flattens and waves moving along the northern periphery will help to increase storm chances this weekend. Still hard to pin down any particular period of higher chances this far out so kept with broad chances each day.

AVIATION(09Z TAF Update) .

A line from Fond du Lac to Janesville is on the western edge of the low cloud shield with bases between 900 and 2500 ft. Some IFR ceilings developed in southeast WI with diminishing light rain showers. The gusty winds in the wake of the cold front diminished somewhat overnight, but expect gusty winds resuming by mid morning and persisting into this evening. Look for MVFR ceilings to improve to IFR late this afternoon and gradually clear from west to east later tonight into Tuesday morning. Diurnal cumulus clouds with bases around 5000 ft are expected Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE .

Southern Lake Michigan will be in an environment that supports waterspouts this morning with any stronger thunderstorms. There will be enough of a lake- air temperature difference to support lake effect clouds and potentially some lake effect showers tonight through Tuesday.

Gusty north winds and high waves will persist through Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters. Winds and waves will slowly dissipate heading into Tuesday afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. That high will remain across the area through later in the week.

BEACHES .

Gusty north to northeast winds developed overnight over the shore areas of Lake Michigan behind a cold front. Waves are expected to build to 4 to 7 feet with a few higher waves possible. These conditions will cause dangerous swimming conditions at Lake Michigan beaches today through Tuesday. Hence a Beach Hazard Statement is in effect for all lakeshore counties through Tuesday afternoon.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for WIZ052-060- 066-071-072.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ052-060- 066.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ071-072.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Tuesday for LMZ645-646.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LMZ643-644.



Update . mbK Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . mbK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday . Stumpf

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	8 mi	68 min	N 16 G 19	62°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	20 mi	88 min	NNW 5.1 G 11	64°F			1019.3 hPa
45013	38 mi	38 min	N 14 G 18	64°F	71°F	5 ft	1018.4 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	45 mi	28 min	NNW 8 G 9.9	64°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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NE3 G8

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI	14 mi	75 min	N 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	64°F	55°F	73%	1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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