Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oostburg, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 090952 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 352 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

DISCUSSION.

Today and Tonight . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

So far most of the light rain and drizzle has been limited to area east of the Kettle Moraine early this morning. As a surface low pushes into Southern Wisconsin this morning, fog has developed and will persist across portions of southwestern Wisconsin over the next few hours. The initial round of light rain/drizzle will likely taper off and go into a lull later this morning. As a mid- level shortwave trough pushes into the western Great Lakes, can expect another round of precipitation with mainly rain this afternoon. As temperatures fall, rain will give way to a wintry mix late afternoon/evening. Best chances for accumulating snow, generally less than an inch, will be for areas north of I-94, while more of a mix of rain/snow will be possible for the southern areas. As the cold front pushes through and mid-level drying occurs, some freezing rain may be possible at times. Precipitation will quickly diminish tonight as cold, dry air pushes into the area. Additionally, strong gusty winds will develop late this afternoon/evening behind the cold front as well. Can expect colder temperatures tonight with lows in the teens and dipping into the single digits across the Wisconsin river valley.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Forecast confidence is high.

No big changes to this cold forecast, though it doesn't look quite as cold on Wednesday. We should see more clouds later Tuesday/Wednesday morning and this will keep temps a tad warmer than previously expected for Wed morning lows. Wind chills are now only running 5 to 10 below north of Milwaukee and Madison and around zero south. The models are showing a mid level short wave pushing across the Great Lakes early Wednesday (the source of the clouds). However, the soundings look very dry other than a shallow low level layer of moisture. So, won't mention any flurries or light snow at this time.

Thursday through Sunday . Forecast confidence is medium.

The pattern continues to transition into a more zonal flow for the latter half of the week. This allows temps to return to more normal levels by the end of the week. In addition, a series of short waves will track through the region. The models suggest one fast mover on Thursday could produce some light snow, mainly north of Milwaukee and Madison. There's another one later Friday into Friday night that could do the same. Surface cyclogenesis occurs to our east with a surface low moving northeast along the Appalachians Friday night into Saturday. The precip shield may spread as far west as Wisconsin, so we may see some mixed rain/snow with that given our more mild temps moving in. Sunday is looking fairly dry right now.

Monday . Forecast confidence is low.

The ECMWF is cranking up a strong surface low over the Ohio Valley and lifting it northeast next Monday. It has a rather copious precip axis lifting into southern Wisconsin Monday through Tuesday . all snow. Meanwhile, the GFS shows a similar low intensity/track, but it keeps the precip south of Wisconsin. Typically, a track this far south and east wouldn't bring us the precip the ECMWF is producing. Certainly way too far off to get too concerned/excited for snow, but it is a system that will have to be watched over the next week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS).

Light rain/drizzle continues to push through southern Wisconsin. A surface low is currently moving across the area and with the increasing moisture and light winds, fog has developed for portions of the area as well. Mostly IFR ceilings have developed at the southern Wisconsin terminals and will likely persist through the day. Otherwise, expect another round of wintry precipitation this afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front with gusty northerly winds developing this evening in its wake.

MARINE.

A surface low continues to push into the area early this morning and will then move across Lake Michigan through the day today. Winds will remain lighter and more variable this morning/early afternoon. However, stronger north to northwest winds will develop this afternoon behind a cold front and will persist overnight tonight. Winds will gradually diminish and breezy westerly winds will linger into Tuesday. A much colder airmass will follow which will lead to freezing spray at times through mid-week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ080-675-777-779-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wagner Tuesday through Sunday . Davis

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	8 mi	42 min	ENE 7 G 7	39°F			1003.9 hPa (-2.9)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	20 mi	62 min	NNE 6 G 7	39°F			1004.7 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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Last 24hr

S15

S14 G18

S12

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S7 G11

SW7 G10

SW7 G10

SW8

SW5 G9

SW2 G7

SW1

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S1

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E6

NW1 G4

E8

E7 G10

1 day ago

NW2

SW5 G8

SW4 G8

S2 G5

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SW9 G13

SW10

S11 G14

S10 G13

S12 G15

S11 G14

S11 G15

S11 G14

SW12 G16

S18 G24

S17 G23

S23

S17 G22

S15

S18 G22

S18 G23

S14 G20

SW11 G16

S14 G17

2 days ago

NW6 G13

N6 G11

N8 G12

N13 G22

N5 G12

NW7 G11

NW9 G17

NW6 G11

N5 G9

N8 G11

N9

NW2 G8

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NW1

NW2

W1

NW2

NW1

NW3 G6

W1

NW1

W3

SW4 G7

W1 G4

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI	14 mi	49 min	NNE 4	0.75 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	35°F	34°F	96%	1004 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)

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S16

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SW11

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SW5

W4

SW5

S3

Calm

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Calm

Calm

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Calm

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NE4

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1 day ago

Calm

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S5

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SW13

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S14 G20

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S16 G25

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NW9

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N13 G21

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Calm

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W3

W4

Calm

Calm

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Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (5,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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