Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Portland, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:06PM Sunday December 15, 2019 7:31 AM EST (12:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 11:09AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 629 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of snow after midnight. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Snow. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Snow likely. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ100 629 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Strong westerly winds increase today behind a cold front. Winds will diminish gradually on Monday. The next low pressure system tracks south of the gulf of maine on Tuesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Portland, ME
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location: 43.65, -70.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 151143 AAA AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 643 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. A complex frontal system crosses the area tonight with strong winds over much of the area Sunday. High pressure builds into the area Monday. Low pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley towards southern New England will bring mainly light to moderate snow to the area late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Snow showers are possible Wednesday followed by much colder air for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 645 AM Update . Forecast is on track this morning with a few light showers moving in over the mountains. Windy conditions have have already started and will become gustier as the day goes on. Temperatures, dew points, and sky cover was adjusted for this update.

Previous discussion . Surface analysis shows that a cold front is crossing the region this morning, with the parent low pressure already located well north in the St. Lawrence River Valley. This boundary is mainly a wind shift and the demarcation line of stronger winds. Later today a secondary cold front will sweep across ushering in the colder and drier airmass. Strong CAA as well as deep mixing and a tight pressure gradient over the area will allow winds to gust to near 50 mph at times. KGYX VAD wind profiles are currently showing about 40 kts at 2kft, and a substantial portion of this is already mixing to the ground in the wake of the first front. Have extended the wind advisory to include the entire forecast area, and started it at 7 AM given that we are already seeing gusts near 35 kts.

Otherwise there is some stratus that remains in upslope areas, and there will be some isolated to scattered snow showers today over the highest peaks, which could see some moderate snowfall accumulations through tonight. Skies will gradually clear out in downslope flow later this afternoon. Highs today will occur at daybreak with temperatures falling throughout the day. Needless to say it will feel very cold with the wind chill.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Cold high pressure builds in tonight into Monday with single digits likely tonight across the north and teens across the south in strong CAA. Highs warm into the teens to the lower to mid 30s just along the coast. A system to our south may introduce some cloud cover towards the evening from the SW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Model guidance has slowed the next system slight . with precip likely holding off until Tue now. Not much has changed from previous forecasts. 15.00z raobs got a sampling of the S/WV trof over Nrn CA last evening . and my expectation is for less wild swings in model guidance from here on out as a result. Some of the same concerns . as stated in previous discussions . remain. Saturation of the snow growth zone and mid level warming are consistent signals showing up on guidance. This would point towards a less efficient snowfall than average. That being said there is strong isentropic ascent in the WAA ahead of the wave . so if we can trend towards greater saturation a period of enhanced snowfall is possible Tue. For now I have gone with lower than average snowfall ratios and QPF generally less than a half inch. That does still give a fairly widespread 2 to 4 inches for much of the Srn half of the forecast area. Given that this is the higher confidence area . that is also where I keep the high likely and low categorical PoP in the forecast. The 15 00z GFS is still a fairly robust wave. so there is room for this system to trend in either direction.

There is good model agreement on an Arctic S/WV trof diving out of the NNW and across the region Wed. Despite the continental origin the trof passage will likely come with scattered snow showers . and I cannot rule out some snow squalls in the mtns especially. The real story will be the H8 temps of -20C pouring into the area behind the trof. With the 2 SD below normal air mass settling over the region . a couple days of highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits looks likely.

Lots of uncertainty beyond that however . as a PV streamer across the central CONUS drifts Ewd. How the Nrn stream interacts with this feature will drive the forecast thru the weekend It could be another trof passage. or it could be a more phased system and widespread precip locally. For now the multi-model consensus will be the starting point with a chance of snow showers.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term . Some MVFR ceilings still out there this morning in stratus banked along the higher terrain. VFR will prevail today everywhere as a cold front ushers in drier air . with the exception of KHIE which could see -SHSN today resulting in MVFR conditions. Winds will be the main concern today with about 30+ kts already being reported in strong cold air advection. Vigorous mixing will keep this scenario going all day and expect the odd gust to 30-40 kts. Winds begin to diminish overnight. There is some LLWS out there this morning as winds in the 1.5-2k ft AGL are around 45 kts.

Long Term . After a VFR start to the day . lowering clouds and SN breaking out Tue will bring widespread IFR or lower to the area. The bulk of the SN will fall during the day and into the evening . before gradual clearing and return to VFR from W to E. A strong trof and much colder air arrives Wed . with a period of gusty winds possible Wed night. SHSN chances with the trof are low confidence . except for upslope regions of the mtns. HIE will likely see MVFR CIGs and local IFR or lower in SHSN in the vicinity.

MARINE. Short Term . Gale warnings continue through tomorrow morning with gusty westerly gales starting this morning. Seas remain in the 8-13 ft range from the bays to the outer waters.

Long Term . A wave will pass S of the waters Tue and Tue night . with snowfall reducing visibility over the waters. Winds may stay below SCA thresholds . but seas are expected to build above 5 ft outside of the bays. A secondary trof axis crosses the waters Wed . with strong CAA expected. Gale force wind gusts are possible outside of the bays . continuing into Thu. Winds and seas gradually diminish as cold high pressure builds into the area.

HYDROLOGY. The Suncook River at North Chichester has finally crested . and along with the Presumpscot at Westbrook . continues to fall. There continue to be a couple rivers rising . but they are expected to remain below flood stage. Overall the trend will be down with water levels today. Next update to FLS is expected when Westbrook falls below flood stage in the next few hours.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH . Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NHZ001>015. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.



NEAR TERM . Hanes SHORT TERM . Hanes LONG TERM . Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 3 mi50 min 43°F 42°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 12 mi42 min WSW 21 G 29 44°F 46°F9 ft989.9 hPa (+3.8)33°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 25 mi92 min SW 8.9 42°F 32°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 27 mi50 min W 12 G 19 42°F 43°F991.6 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 33 mi88 min WSW 25 G 31 45°F8 ft990.1 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME1 mi41 minWSW 13 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F28°F58%990.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmW4SW3SW8SW6S3CalmE3NW3N4N4N3NW3N4N3N6NW8NW5W3NW6E8E17
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2 days agoSW4W11W7NW106W7W7W4W7SW4SW3SW4SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3W4CalmSW3CalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Fore River, Maine
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Fore River
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:46 AM EST     9.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:39 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:52 PM EST     10.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:19 PM EST     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.89.18.36.64.42.10.70.51.53.45.98.41010.59.77.95.42.60.4-0.7-0.50.93.15.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cow Island, Maine
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Cow Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:43 AM EST     9.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:49 PM EST     10.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:17 PM EST     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.89.18.36.64.32.10.70.51.63.568.41010.49.77.95.32.50.3-0.7-0.413.25.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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