Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Portland, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:07PM Monday November 30, 2020 11:55 PM EST (04:55 UTC) Moonrise 5:24PMMoonset 8:01AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 707 Pm Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.storm warning in effect until 7 am est Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..S winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain. Isolated tstms. Patchy dense fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to variable to less than one quarter nm late.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Numerous showers, mainly in the morning. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm in the morning.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers in the evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 707 Pm Est Mon Nov 30 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Intensifying low pressure tracks to the west of the waters through Tuesday pulling a cold/occluded front across the waters late Tuesday. A period of storm force winds is expected with this during the evening and tonight. Winds will gradually subside tomorrow, followed by seas. The low will then weaken and linger to our north and west through Thursday. High pressure builds to the south of the area late Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Portland, ME
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location: 43.65, -70.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 010321 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1021 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. An intensifying area of low pressure passes to our west tonight, delivering strong winds and heavy rainfall to the area. Broad troughing will result in near normal temperatures with a few chances for scattered rain and snow showers mainly over the mountains later this week. A potentially more organized system will approach the area during this upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. 10PM UPDATE . Steadier rain is pushing off to the northeast and replaced by more intermittent showers as we still remain in the moist flow ahead of the cold front. This is likely to be the story for the remainder of the night until the cold front arrives on Tuesday.

7PM UPDATE . Have updated to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory due to the combined effects of storm surge and large building waves. Will also make some adjustments to temperatures based on latest observations and expected trends.

6PM UPDATE . The last remaining pockets of the cold air dam are being eroded now. Fryeburg is now up to 53 degrees with a southeast wind. With the warm, moist air advancing inland, this opens up a greater area to a strong wind threat. The Wind Advisory has been expanded inland in Maine and westward in New Hampshire where gusts to 40 MPH have already been observed. We are also watching a line of convection to our west which may move through our area this evening and could locally enhance wind gusts.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION . The main story of the forecast package is here in the near term . an area of low pressure is racing northward through Appalachia this evening with a broad area of moderate to heavy rain and pockets of embedded convection enveloping the Northeast CONUS. At this hour, rain is overspreading Maine and New Hampshire and low level winds are increasing . coinciding with a surging LLJ reaching into coastal New England. While a cool airmass keeps much of the interior protected from the strongest winds for the time being . for instance Fryeburg is currently at 37 degrees with no wind . relatively warm onshore flow is allowing wind gusts to mix to the surface along the coast. As the LLJ crosses this evening into tonight, about 75-80 kts at 925 mb, wind gusts will continue to increase along the coast. A High Wind Warning is in now effect for Portland to Penobscot Bay with wind gusts expected to approach 60 mph . and locally stronger in convection. Going inland by another zone strong wind gusts are also expected, but will be more limited below 50-55 mph . so have a wind advisory from interior Rockingham county through Maine's Capitol region to account for this. Strong winds will gradually shift with the jet toward downeast Maine by dawn as temperatures rise into the 50s area- wide.

Another consequence of the LLJ running into the cooler surface temperatures is heavy rainfall . more on that below in the hydrology section but the timing of heaviest rainfall generally coincides with the strongest winds at the nose of the jet.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure stalls over the lower Great Lakes region tomorrow as its upper level trough cuts off and begins to fill the system in. Locally, steady heavy rain lifts east toward the maritimes along the LLJ with isolated to scattered showers in its wake over our forecast area. A band of stronger onshore flow remains over the Mid- Coast and Downeast Maine however, lifting over the coast and continuing a more consitent shower presence there with pockets of heavy rain still possible given strong moisture availability.

The occlusion/cold front associated with the stalled low to our west pushes across from southwest to northeast during the afternoon and evening with a few more showers . will have to keep an eye on this feature as it will provide another surge of strong onshore winds and associated enhanced rain and gusty wind chance. Statistical guidance isn't too enthused about strong winds with this feature but there could be another brief period of heavy rain and gusty winds around Penobscot Bay during the afternoon. At any rate temperatures will drop from the upper-50s down into the 30s Wednesday night behind the front with gradually clearing clouds.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Overview: The long term portion of the forecast will be largely driven by 500 mb blocking and troughing over the northeastern United States. This will result in a few chances for light precipitation events but no major systems are currently expected. Temperatures will be near to a bit above normal throughout the period.

On Wednesday, a 500 mb trough will be centered over the region before moving to the northeast of the area on Thursday. A closed low will be located within this trough allowing for some rain and snow showers over the CWA. The best chance for this shower activity will likely be over the mountains as upslope flow develops. Therefore went with highest PoPs over these locations. Expecting some breaks in the clouds for areas outside of the mountains with dry downsloping. High temperatures will range from the middle 30s across the north to lower 40s elsewhere. Southerly winds may gust up to 25 mph, especially along the coast.

High pressure will dominate the forecast for Thursday and Friday with light surface winds and temperatures generally running near to a few degrees above average. A lingering rain or snow shower is possible across the north on Thursday morning but this should be very localized in nature and short lived. Expecting partly to mostly sunny skies with the most cloud cover being confined to the mountains. By Friday afternoon cloud cover will likely increase ahead of a weak wave of energy.

The weather will become a little more unsettled for this weekend as a series of weak pulses of energy move around a closed low located to our north. Forecast guidance is beginning to hint at the possibility for an area of low pressure to develop somewhere near the Carolinas before moving northeastward across the western Atlantic and possibly approaching our area by Sunday evening or early Monday morning. While the currently favored track of this potential system keeps the precipitation shield just offshore, this will need to be closely watched as any shifts west or better phasing will allow for increased precipitation chances, especially along the coast. Gusty winds would also be possible during this period, should the system track closer to the area. There will still be 500 mb troughing in place but temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term . Widespread MVFR over the region right now will tank to IFR or worse as +RA covers the area this evening . as has already been occuring over southern terminals. SErly wind gusts will increase with this as well, gusting to as much as 50 kts over the immediate coast but more subdued further inland, generally at or below 40 kts. As heavy rain lifts away late tonight . BR/FG, low ceilings, and gusty SSErly winds continue overnight into the morning with +RA changing to -RA and eventually -SHRA. Restrictions gradually lift during the afternoon, especially after the passage of a cold front which allows winds to back to the southwest.

Long Term . VFR/MVFR conditions expected on Wednesday with scattered rain and snow showers possible, especially across northern terminals. Southerly winds may gust to 25 kts, especially across coastal terminals. VFR conditions expected on Thursday and Friday under high pressure and light southwesterly winds. MVFR conditions possible on Saturday and Sunday with scattered rain and snow showers. There is a low confidence for IFR conditions on Sunday night, especially across coastal terminals as a potential storm tracks near or east of the area may result in a period of steadier precipitation and stronger winds.

MARINE. Short Term . A period of Storm Force onshore winds is expected over the waters this evening and tonight as a LLJ crosses overhead. During this time seas will increase to 15-20 ft over the waters, 10-15 ft nearshore. Winds gradually switch to the south tomorrow, backing down to Gales, then switch southwesterly as a cold front crosses the waters later in the day. While winds will quickly subside . seas will take longer to come down, backing down to 5-10 ft over the waters tomorrow night.

Long Term . SCA or Gale conditions likely on Wednesday with seas of 6-10 feet and southerly winds up to 30 kts. SCA conditions possible on Thursday through Friday with seas of 4-6 feet and southwesterly winds between 20-25 kts.

HYDROLOGY. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to last through this evening and tonight, gradually shifting east into Central Maine by dawn Tuesday. A general 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected everywhere, but 2 to 3 inches are likely between the Maine Coast and the southeast-facing upslopes of the Whites and western Maine mountains. Hires guidance indicates that up to 4 inches of rain may fall in these upslopes and along the coast which may lead to minor flooding. Small streams and brooks, mainly in the headwaters regions over the higher terrain, will be most vulnerable to minor flooding with all rivers expected to experience strong rises with this rainfall. A Flood Watch has been issued for most of the Maine coast extending into the mountains to account for this threat.

The forcing mechanism responsible for heavy rainfall stalls near Central Maine tomorrow with uncertainty in its exact location . so have extended the Watch for our eastern most zones to 21Z, but this may be cancelled early if rain shifts a little further east.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides are astronomically low here at the end of November. However, strong southeast winds are expected tonight into Tuesday along with offshore seas building up to 20 feet. This may allow for some splashover or minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide around midnight tonight and again midday Tuesday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ012-018>020-023- 033. Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MEZ009-014-021-022- 026>028. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ013-014-021-022. Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MEZ007-008-012-013- 018>020-023>025-033. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ023>028. High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ024>028. NH . Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NHZ004-006-008>015. Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NHZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Tuesday for NHZ014. MARINE . Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>154.



NEAR TERM UPDATE . Kimble SHORT TERM . Casey LONG TERM . Tubbs AVIATION . Casey/Tubbs MARINE . Casey/Tubbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 3 mi56 min 55°F 46°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 12 mi46 min S 16 G 23 53°F 47°F1002 hPa51°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 25 mi56 min SSE 8.9 54°F 54°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 27 mi56 min 53°F 46°F1002.6 hPa (-0.8)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 33 mi112 min SSE 25 G 37 53°F 16 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME1 mi65 minSSE 17 G 302.50 miRain Fog/Mist55°F55°F100%1003 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW6W3W4W5W3W8W5W5W5W9W7SW6SW5W6SW6S6S6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4NW3NW4NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3CalmS3S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W6NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Fore River, Maine
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Fore River
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 04:38 AM EST     1.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:49 AM EST     9.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:05 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:12 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:24 PM EST     8.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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86.44.32.41.31.123.8689.39.797.34.92.60.90.10.51.83.867.78.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cow Island, Maine
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Cow Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 04:36 AM EST     1.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     9.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:05 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:21 PM EST     8.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.96.34.22.31.31.22.13.96.18.19.49.68.97.24.82.50.80.10.51.83.96.17.88.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.