Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Canaan, NH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:11PM Thursday December 5, 2019 3:48 PM EST (20:48 UTC) Moonrise 2:17PMMoonset 1:05AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Canaan, NH
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location: 43.68, -72.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 052009 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 309 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will sweep across the forecast area this evening. Another low pressure system will pass near or south of the region on Friday with an additional chance for light snow in southern and western areas. This system will usher in significantly colder weather for Saturday. Warmer temperatures perhaps with some rain is expected early next week before a cold front brings in another dose of Arctic cold.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. Cold front beginning to move across the forecast area as of 1930z with gusty winds and a few snow showers or isolated squalls. This front will sweep across the rest of the forecast area by early evening with brisk conditions and the possibility of a squall or two. Colder temperatures are expected tonight in the wake of the front with lows mainly in the teens and wind chill values lower than that as winds will probably not decouple all night in most areas. Upslope snow showers will continue in the northern Whites and adjacent western ME mountains through a good portion of the night.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A quick-moving short wave trough will approach the forecast area from the west Friday morning. Much of the members of the 12z model suite are in better agreement today on the degree of amplification and track of the short wave trough, SFC low track, and subsequent shield of light snow. The ECMWF continues to be the most consistent from run to run with the more northerly track of these features so leaned that direction in the forecast blend for PoPs and QPF for Friday. Even though the NAM and GFS models are slightly further south, the track of their low and mid level frontogenesis and -EPV (and associated potential symmetric instability) fields favor the ECMWF forcing and QPF fields.

Light snow should arrive across western zones late in the morning, quickly spreading across central/southern NH and southern ME through the afternoon hours. Expecting a coating to an inch in most areas roughly south of a KLEB-KPWM line with a few spots possibly picking up around 2". North of that line, forcing for ascent will be weaker and low level RH values will be quite low. Therefore, less than an inch expected north of the aforementioned line, with little to no accums expected in much of central ME northward into the mountains.

Overall this is a light snow event that will probably only last 6 hours in the afternoon to early evening and certainly pales in comparison to the storm we experienced earlier in the week. However, a coating to 2" of snow on the roads during the afternoon and evening commute tends to cause quite a few traffic issues. We'll highlight in the HWO and may need a special weather statement come late tonight or Friday morning.

Otherwise, the system quickly moves away Friday evening with at least partial clearing and cold temperatures in it's wake.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Core of the cold behind the front will be in place on Saturday as high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the 20s area wide despite a good amount of sunshine downwind of the mountains. Saturday night the high moves across the area. Expect even the lingering clouds in the mountains to disperse as the upslope flow ends and winds go calm across the region. This will set the stage for a very cold night with most of the area expected to see single digit readings. The coldest valleys could dip to zero. High pressure moves east Sunday opening our area up to a southwest flow and increasing temperatures. It may take a while to warm up after the very cold morning, but eventually we should warm above freezing for most areas south of the mountains.

The next low pressure system will be developing over the Great Lakes on Monday with our area in the southwest flow ahead of the broader trough. Thus expect continued warming conditions along with increase moisture. Models indicate a peripheral shortwave trough tracking up the East Coast on Monday which will bring an initial round of rain. There has been some concern that precipitation could start as freezing rain in colder interior locations, but it seems the rain is likely to start later in the day with enough time for the temperature to warm above freezing for most areas. However, with the recent cold weather there could be some areas where ground temperatures remain near freezing and could see icy spots. But for the most part we see this next system as a rain event area wide as our region will be in the warm sector of this cyclone. There is still some disagreement among the models on how fast to send the eventual cold front through, with the ECMWF remaining on the faster side of guidance. Still think the GFS is probably handling this better and has some support from the CMC in moving the front through Tuesday evening. This means another day of warm temperatures and rain.

Once the front moves through it will usher in another Arctic air mass with temperatures tumbling Wednesday and Thursday. The cold high arrives Thursday night and could bring widespread lows in the single digits to near zero.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term . MVFR in the mountains tonight with snow showers. Isolated brief snow squalls possible elsewhere through about 00z this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions Friday morning deteriorate to MVFR Friday afternoon, with a few hour period of IFR possible, mainly south of a KHIE-KLEW line in light snow. VFR returns Friday night.

Long Term . MVFR ceilings may linger in the mountains on Saturday but will finally disperse by Saturday evening as high pressure builds in. Expect VFR conditions through Sunday. Ceilings may lower to IFR on Monday as the next low pressure system brings rain to the area lasting into Tuesday.

MARINE. Short Term . SCA will remain in place through tonight as cold air advection allows for gusts around 30 kt. Another low will move through Friday afternoon with scattered snow showers possible along the southern portion of the coastal waters.

Long Term . High pressure crests over the Gulf of Maine Saturday night into Sunday with a southwest flow developing Sunday evening. We will likely see gusts to 25 or 30 KT through Tuesday when the next cold front arrives from the west.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.



NEAR TERM . Ekster SHORT TERM . Ekster LONG TERM . Kimble


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 79 mi63 min W 8.9 38°F 1003 hPa29°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 84 mi54 min NW 8.9 G 12 41°F 42°F1002.6 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 85 mi48 min W 5.1 41°F 28°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lebanon Municipal Airport, NH12 mi55 minWNW 9 G 2210.00 miOvercast35°F19°F54%1005.1 hPa
Plymouth Municipal Airport, NH19 mi53 minWNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F25°F61%1002.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLEB

Wind History from LEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm35W9W8NW9
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N11N8N7NW55CalmS3CalmCalmCalmS4NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
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Tide / Current Tables for Salmon Falls River entrance, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire
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Salmon Falls River entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:00 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:16 AM EST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:20 AM EST     6.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:42 PM EST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:33 PM EST     6.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.911.93.24.65.76.26.15.44.33.12.11.51.41.934.35.56.16.25.64.63.3

Tide / Current Tables for Squamscott River RR. Bridge, New Hampshire
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Squamscott River RR. Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:01 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:05 AM EST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EST     6.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:31 PM EST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:17 PM EST     6.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.20.91.12.13.54.95.86.265.242.81.91.41.42.13.34.65.76.26.15.44.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.