Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lowville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:36PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 12:46 PM EDT (16:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:34AMMoonset 11:22PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 701 Am Edt Tue May 26 2020
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Areas of fog early. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:202005261530;;776344 FZUS51 KBUF 261101 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 701 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-261530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowville, NY
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location: 43.68, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 261519 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1119 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Expect very warm and humid conditions through mid to late week before cooler air arrives by the weekend. A few showers and thunderstorms could occur each day through Wednesday afternoon mostly along lake breeze boundaries. A period of more widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur late this week ahead of the cooldown.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Mid-summer heat and humidity continues through the afternoon with building mid level ridge across the Mid Atlantic and eastern Great Lakes. Temps have already surged into the low to middle 80s with heat index values already upper 80s to near 90F. Some relief will occur this afternoon as lake breezes develop. Put Special Weather Statement out earlier to highlight heat index values reaching the 90-95F range this afternoon.

As we work through afternoon, lake breezes interacting with warm and humid airmass will trigger showers and a few thunderstorms within the moist weak to moderately unstable environment. Latest CAMs have trended down in coverage but still target interior portions of Niagara Frontier to Rochester for most of the activity. Shear profiles are NIL suggesting convection will be slow moving with very heavy downpours the primary hazard.

Record or near record temperatures expected at all 3 climate sites. See climate section below. Maximum heat index values in the lower 90s. Impressive in that just two weeks ago western New York was experiencing record cold with snow.

Convection will diminish this evening leading to a warm and muggy night.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Upper level ridge axis will push east over the western Atlantic on Wednesday, while the surface ridge axis extending westward from a strong area of high pressure well off the east coast remains firmly in control across our region. Appears air in the boundary layer will be a bit drier than on Tuesday, with a good deal of subsidence in place. Therefore, with a lack of any real moisture or forcing, will once again have to rely purely on diurnal heating combined with developing afternoon lake breeze circulations to possibly be enough to set off a few isolated showers/thunderstorm during the second half of the day. Most favored locations will be counties just south of Lake Ontario and the Eastern Lake Ontario region inland from the lakeshores. Dry weather expected area wide Wednesday night as high pressure remains in control. Otherwise, upper level heights and 850Ts will fall a few ticks, which will translate to temps a touch cooler on Wednesday than on Tuesday, with highs mainly reaching the lower and middle 80s. Lows Wednesday night will fall back into the lower to mid 60s.

As high pressure surface and aloft finally begins to make a real push further east into the Atlantic on Thursday, a deep southerly flow will develop between departing high pressure and a cold front moving into the upper Great Lakes. This will allow a GOMEX moisture connection to become established on Thursday. Meanwhile, a pseudo warm frontal boundary and weak upper level shortwave will push north across the region as well. The combination of increased humidity along with the weak surface boundary/shortwave aloft slowly moving through the region will bring a better chance for some scattered showers and a few storms, especially during the afternoon/early evening hours. Despite the lack of any real trigger Thursday night, with deep moisture in place won't take much to pop off some scattered showers/isolated storm. With regards to temperatures, increased cloud cover will continue the slight day to day decline in high temperatures, with mainly upper 70s and lower 80s found across the area. Expect warm and sultry conditions Thursday night out ahead of the approaching cold front as it pushes into the central Great Lakes by early Friday morning. Lows will only fall back into the mid and upper 60s, with some spots possibly not getting below 70F.

The most active day of the week will come on Friday the strong cold front plows across the region. This will not only bring a period of showers and storms along and ahead of the front, it will also be the leading edge of some much cooler, drier air that will build across the area heading into the weekend. Sticking to Friday, the real push of cooler air will lag behind the boundary a bit. This will mean one more day of warm and humid conditions, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. . Notably cooler and less humid through the period .

Temperatures will average below normal for the bulk of this period as a deep longwave trough that becomes established across the eastern third of the nation and a massive Canadian surface high will dominate our weather.

Some rain showers will linger Friday night in the wake of the cold frontal passage, before a secondary cold front pushes through the region late Friday night and Saturday morning. This will open the door for the real push of much cooler, drier air to pour across the region. Any lingering light rain showers across eastern areas Saturday morning, will slowly taper off from west to east through the early afternoon.

Cool and mainly dry weather is then expected for the remainder of the period. That said, several shortwaves will pinwheel around the main upper low located east of James Bay through the rest of the weekend, before the main trough axis passes through the area sometime later Sunday. The best forcing and moisture is expected to remain north of the Canadian border for the most part through the remainder of the period as well. With these factors taken into consideration, it is expected the very dry air associated with the massive Canadian high building across the region will have the most impact on weather keeping it completely dry at this point. One thing is for certain, it will be noticeably cooler for the weekend into the start of the new work week. Highs will be mainly in the 60s through the period, with some places across the higher terrain possibly not getting above the upper 50s Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. In general, VFR conditions are expected at the terminals into early afternoon. Chances for thunderstorms, though still limited in coverage, will increase mid to late afternoon especially along the lake breeze boundary south of Lake Ontario over the Niagara Frontier, including IAG, BUF and ROC. Any of these thunderstorms, which again will be isolated in coverage, could drop vsby to IFR- MVFR levels during heavy downpours.

Any thunderstorms will diminish this evening with mainly VFR expected, although some patchy fog is possibly in the Southern Tier valleys and also where any heavy daytime rain occurred.

Outlook .

Wednesday . Mainly VFR. Just a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Thursday . VFR to MVFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Friday . Showers and thunderstorms likely. Saturday . VFR.

MARINE. A weak pressure gradient will remain in place across the lower Great Lakes through Thursday with light winds and minimal wave action. The weak gradient will allow for onshore breezes to develop during the afternoon hours. Southwest winds will freshen Friday then shift to the northwest into Saturday as a cold front crosses the region.

The light winds and a humid airmass will result in areas of dense fog on Lake Ontario at times through late this week. The risk of fog will not diminish until later Friday into Saturday as less humid air arrives.

CLIMATE. A very warm airmass will remain across the region today and Wednesday. Below are the record highs, and record warm minimum temperatures for today and Wednesday the 27th. Since we are now in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) the climatic day will run from 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Tuesday May 26th Record Highs

Buffalo . 88F 1944 Rochester . 90F 1944 Watertown . 85F 2010

Tuesday May 26th Record Warm Minimum

Buffalo . 70F 1991 Rochester . 68F 1914 Watertown . 62F 2018

Wednesday May 27th Record Highs

Buffalo . 89F 1978 Rochester . 92F 1978 Watertown . 87F 1960

Wednesday May 27th Record Warm Minimum

Buffalo . 69F 1991 Rochester . 70F 1918 Watertown . 67F 1991

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . JLA/TMA NEAR TERM . JLA/TMA SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . JLA/RSH/TMA MARINE . JLA CLIMATE . Thomas/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi46 min 1019.8 hPa (+0.0)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 53 mi46 min NNE 5.1 G 6 76°F 1020 hPa (-0.3)65°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 71 mi46 min 75°F 50°F1019.5 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY27 mi1.8 hrsSW 910.00 miFair84°F67°F58%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGTB

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SW7S8SW7W7SW8SW6SW3CalmCalmS3SE4SE7SE8SE8SE9SE10SE10SE10SE6S4CalmSW9SW6
1 day agoE6SE5S8
G15
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SE13SE11S9SE8S11SE12S10S8SE10S9S12S11SE12S11S15SE13S12SE9SE8
2 days agoN12
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G20
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N9NE7NE6E3CalmS5SE13
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S14SE12SE11SE12SE9S10SE10SE9SE6E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.