Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lowville, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:28PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 12:01 AM EST (05:01 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 8:24AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 951 Pm Est Mon Nov 30 2020
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Thursday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:202012011015;;653372 FZUS51 KBUF 010251 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 951 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-011015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowville, NY
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location: 43.68, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 010338 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1038 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure lifting across north central New York will drift north and meander near Ottawa later Tuesday and Wednesday. Though moderate to heavy rain has ended, as colder air builds in, the rain will change over to mainly snow showers for Tuesday and Wednesday. Most areas will only see light snow accumulations, but significant snows are expected across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and possibly on the Tug Hill.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Regional radar and sfc obs show steady rain has ended across all our forecast area. Widespread precipitation in the deformation region of upper low over Ohio Valley mainly in the form of rain/snow or just snow is just to our west, clipping western NY where so far, per sfc obs and reports sent to us through social media, ptype is still only rain even over higher terrain of western Southern Tier. Snow is now being reported as close as Hamilton Ontario though and based on dual pol radar, snow may be mixing with the rain over portions of the Niagara Peninsula toward lower Niagara River in western Niagara County. Otherwise, rest of the region is seeing drizzle and patches of fog with temps in the mid 30s Southern Tier to the upper 30s and low 40s elsewhere.

The surface low will track across eastern Lake Ontario and the Adirondacks overnight while the associated mid-level low gradually slides east to western Pennsylvania. This will eventually bring a rain/snow mix into Western NY overnight. That mix could change to snow across higher terrain, likely as early as late this evening or early overnight when very light precip is occurring, but more so well after midnight toward daybreak when steadier precip moves back over western NY. This may produce an inch or so of snow across higher terrain in the Western Southern Tier, with little if any snow accumulation elsewhere through daybreak Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. On Tuesday, sfc low drifts north of eastern Lake Ontario toward Ottawa Valley while upper low heads to eastern Lake Ontario. As upper low heads northeast, cold air on the back side of the low will continue to deepen over the region from the west. Minor differences in timing the cold air, but overall good model agreement that rain/snow will change to mainly snow over WNY morning to early afternoon. While lower elevations could see mix of rain/wet snow or perhaps even all snow for a time Tuesday, accumulation will be limited in lower elevations. Most accumulation on Tuesday will occur over the higher terrain from Chautauqua Ridge to Boston Hills where several inches of snow could fall by evening.

The greatest impact from this system though will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, when the majority of the region will be cold enough to see mainly snow. The coldest air aloft will arrive at this time with 850 mb temperatures cooling to between -7 and -9 degrees C which will produce ample over-lake instability to produce a lake response east and northeast of the lakes which will last into Wednesday, producing moderate to locally heavy snowfall total across the western Southern Tier. Snowfall rates during this time could push 1 inch per hour in the heaviest snow.

Storm totals will vary widely across the region. Highest totals are expected to be across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills where local amounts of over a foot are quite possible. High resolution model guidance suggests that a Lake Huron connection may enhance snows Tuesday night, with this band first moving into Chautauqua County Tuesday evening. Will maintain the Winter Storm Warning, with focus on higher terrain. There will be much less snow along Interstate 90 and the immediate Lake Erie shore where only a couple inches of snow is expected as temperatures there stay in the mid 30s for most of this event. Upslope enhancement was ample to support issuing an Advisory for Wyoming County which can expect 4 to 8 inches across far western portions.

Areas east of Lake Ontario will see limited accumulations through Tuesday night, but winds will shift to the west on Wednesday resulting in better lake enhancement. This combined with an upslope flow will produce at least several inches of snow on the Tug Hill. This could eventually require an advisory, but still some uncertainty in the exact wind direction and event duration.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. The now stacked closed low, will continue to weaken Wednesday night as it advances northeastward into Canada. In its wake, upper level ridging over the northeastern portions of the Ohio Valley will produce an area of surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic. As these systems advance northeast/eastward, dry air associated with the surface high will filter in across the region. Thus, activity off of Lake Erie from the days prior will be the first to diminish. As the low departs and the dry air filters further east throughout the night on Wednesday, the activity east of Lake Ontario will also gradually diminish.

With the surface high to the south and the region being on its northern periphery, dry weather associated with the high will additionally influence the weather on Thursday. Thus, expect a dry day on Thursday.

A shortwave trough riding through the northern-stream longwave trough Thursday. This will produce a surface low which will push east across Canada and drag its associated frontal feature across the region Friday producing chances for showers.

Additionally on Thursday, another upper level cut off low over Mid- Mississippi River Valley will interact with the shortwave rounding the base of the northern-stream longwave trough. As these features interact, a second surface low will deepen and push northeast up along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation may start out as snow on the higher terrain Saturday and Sunday morning, with the possibility of a wintry mix in the lower terrain. Some disagreement in the models in regards to placement of the sfc low that develops over the SE U.S. late Saturday into early Sunday, and its track, so kept chance POPs through the period for now.

As the low quickly shuffles off the Atlantic coast Sunday, yet another upper level shortwave will round the base of the northern- stream longwave trough, which will at the surface swing a cold front through the area and bringing another round of precipitation chances to the area. Given the deeper cold air advection, any falling precipitation on Monday should be snow.

AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. BUF and IAG are getting clipped by steadier light rain, but generally drizzle, fog and IFR/LIFR conditions (especially lower cigs) will be the main story late this evening. Then, for the rest of tonight, expect IFR/LIFR conditions (potentially lower at times at JHW) to continue as the surface low continues to lift across the eastern Lake Ontario region while only slowly drifting north. Rain over western NY will eventually change to snow across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier as cold air wraps in around the low.

On Tuesday, IFR/LIFR with snow across the higher terrain of S. Tier while elsewhere rain and snow eventually transitions to all snow with MVFR/IFR. IAG and BUF should be all snow by midday while it will take until Tuesday evening before switch to all snow occurs at ROC.

Outlook .

Tuesday night . IFR/LIFR. Snow, except along immediate lakeshores with mix of rain and snow. Wednesday . MVFR to VFR with rain and snow showers. Thursday . Mainly VFR. Friday . VFR to MVFR with scattered rain and snow showers. Saturday . MVFR with chance of rain and snow showers.

MARINE. Winds will diminish through early Tuesday morning as low pressure tracks to eastern Lake Ontario and the Adirondacks. Expect winds to increase again though later Tuesday into Wednesday as the system pulls away to the north. This will result in additional (or extend existing) small craft headlines, and winds on Lake Erie may even approach gale force.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ019-020- 085. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/JLA NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . Apffel/JLA LONG TERM . EAJ/PP AVIATION . EAJ/JLA MARINE . Apffel/JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi44 min 995.3 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 53 mi44 min S 4.1 G 11 44°F 995 hPa42°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 71 mi44 min 995.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY27 mi2.1 hrsNW 30.75 miFog/Mist41°F39°F96%994.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGTB

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12SE9SE12SE12SE12SE9SE10SE13SE12SE14SE12E7NE6NE10NE13NE16NE8N10NE8--N3NW4NW3NW3
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2 days agoSW4SW3W4SW5SW4SW3SW7SW4SW7SW6SW8W8W10W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.