Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lowville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:51PM Monday June 21, 2021 2:45 AM EDT (06:45 UTC) Moonrise 4:19PMMoonset 1:52AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 751 Pm Edt Sun Jun 20 2021
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely late. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:202106210315;;591646 FZUS51 KBUF 202351 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 751 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-210315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowville, NY
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location: 43.68, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 210604 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 204 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday as a strong area of low pressure tracks to the north. Windy conditions are expected across the Niagara Frontier Monday while scattered severe thunderstorms are possible with the potential for damaging wind gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes Monday afternoon and evening.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Regional radars showing next batch of convection pushing across eastern Lake Erie. This large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will track across western New York overnight. Elevated instability remains across western NY. Per the 00z Buffalo sounding, steep low-level lapse rates with dry air in the mid-levels will continue the risk for thunderstorm development overnight. Isolated severe storms are possible overnight across western NY.

After daybreak any showers and thunderstorms will track across Lake Ontario into north central NY. Lower confidence in coverage and intensity east of Lake Ontario as we get into the early morning hours. SPC has western NY in a marginal risk, with a slight risk for severe weather across far Western NY through 8 AM Monday.

The more significant severe weather risk is for Monday afternoon through early evening. It looks like most of the area will be in the warm sector dry slot Monday morning, but then storms will develop along a pre-frontal trough around mid- day and move west to east across the area. There's a significant risk for bowing segments as these storms, with embedded supercells and even isolated tornados possible based on the strong wind shear which will be in place. The area of greatest concern is roughly east of a Jamestown to Rochester to Watertown line since trough will move through later in the day when there's more instability in place. Lake shadowing may also lower (but not eliminate) the risk for strong thunderstorms across the Niagara Frontier.

PWATs will also increase to around 2 inches, with dew points approaching 70F. This will make it feel very moist and uncomfortable, and also will pose the risk for heavy rainfall in any thunderstorms. Storms should be moving, which will limit the potential flooding, but flash ponding is a threat with flooding possible if any training occurs. Greatest rainfall amount are expected east of Lake Ontario where the system will be moving a bit slower.

Winds will also be gusty outside of the thunderstorms. NAM BUFKIT shows well aligned flow, with the potential for gusts to 50 mph across the Niagara Frontier on Monday. Peak gusts will depend on how much clearing occurs during the day since the sunshine would allow for better mixing.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Convection from the prefrontal trough will likely wind down from west to east late Monday evening. However, the break from precipitation may be brief for some locations. Model guidance (NAM/ECMWF/Canadian-NH) continues to hint at a weak wave developing along the front which then moves northeast up across the Mid- Atlantic. Have nudge POPs up a bit across the S.Tier northeast across the Finger Lakes into the North Country. Elsewhere, precipitation chances will likely diminish behind the front overnight as it progresses slow east.

Tuesday, the front completely clears the area with dry weather ensuing as sfc high pressure builds in across the eastern Great Lakes. It will also be notably cooler behind the cold front as H850T fall to +1C to +3C which will likely only support MaxT's in the low to mid 60s. There will also be a modest west to northwest breeze of 15 to 20 mph which will make it feel a bit cooler.

Tuesday night, mainly clear night anticipated with winds gradually dropping off overnight. This will allow temperatures to fall off and we might even see a few isolated spots in the upper 30s. Otherwise, most locations will be found in the 40s by sunrise.

Wednesday, sfc high pressure will slowly pass by to our south then off the Northeast coast Wednesday night. Gradual warming trend will then occur as return southerly flow develops on the western peripheral of the high. Anticipating highs to rebound into the 70s Wednesday. Wednesday night, not quite as cool with lows in the 40s and to low 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure and weak upper level ridging continues to pull away from the New England coast on Thursday. Dry weather and mostly clear conditions are expected to last through Friday morning. Daytime high temperatures through the period will generally be in the mid 70s to low 80s, slightly warmer in the low/mid 80s across the lower terrain owed to weak prevailing southerly flow.

Latest model trends have come into better agreement on the majority of the day Friday remaining dry. Model guidance is still showing discrepancies regarding the strength and timing of a cold front stemming from a wave of surface low pressure ahead of a slow moving trough. This feature is expected to produce showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, with shower chances increasing west to east overnight Friday. The slow moving trough and frontal zone look to be fed by ample GOMEX moisture, which will aid in bringing beneficial rains to the area. Long range guidance is in relatively good agreement with several waves of low pressure riding along the boundary. Though specifics can't be pinned down this far out, this may act to slow the progression of the boundary and keep rain chances lingering well into Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Large batch of showers with embedded thunderstorms will track east- northeast across western New York overnight. The potential exists for these storms to have heavy rain, gusty winds and hail producing MVFR/IFR at TAF sites, mainly across western NY through 12z. Any activity will track northeast into the north country with the potential for sub-VFR conditions at KART. A strengthening wind field will produce LLWS ahead of a strong area of low pressure moving into the Upper Great Lakes.

Expect a brief dry slot Monday morning, with windy conditions, but otherwise VFR. Then there's a risk for strong thunderstorms Monday afternoon into early evening. Storms may produce strong gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain.

Outlook .

Monday night . VFR to MVFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms likely, ending from west to east. Tuesday . Mainly VFR, but MVFR conditions possible east of Lake Ontario where some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Wednesday and Thursday . VFR. Friday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE. South to southwest winds will increase ahead of a cold front overnight and Monday, especially on Lake Erie. Small Craft headlines are outlined below.

Thunderstorms through Monday could bring several hazards including strong winds, hail and frequent lightning.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001-002-010-011. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . HSK/TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel/HSK/TMA SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . Hitchcock/PP AVIATION . Apffel/HSK/TMA MARINE . Apffel/HSK/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi52 min 60°F1003.8 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 53 mi52 min SSE 8.9 G 12 71°F 1003.8 hPa64°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 71 mi52 min 64°F 61°F1004.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY27 mi50 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F60°F75%1003.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGTB

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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SW12SW7W7W8W5W6NW7----SW8SW5W3SW3S4SE4SE6SE10SE6
1 day agoW6--SW6SW6SW8--SW8SW10SW11SW10W16W12
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SW7S7SW8S12S7S13S10SE8S8SW8--

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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