Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lowville, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:07PM Saturday August 17, 2019 10:40 PM EDT (02:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 430 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest less than 10 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201908180300;;792791 FZUS51 KBUF 172030 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 430 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-180300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowville, NY
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location: 43.68, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 180229
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1029 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A very active pattern over the region through early next week will
support fairly frequent showers along with the risk for more strong
to severe thunderstorm activity at times. Otherwise... It will be
very warm and muggy through the middle of the upcoming week. Much
more comfortable conditions can be expected for the second half of
the week.

Near term through Sunday
As of 1025 pm largely dry conditions continue across the area... Save
for a couple tiny sprinkles across portions of the north country.

These general conditions will persist through the early overnight
hours... With some patchy fog forming in some areas as radiational
cooling allows dewpoint depressions to narrow.

As we head into the latter portions of the night... A shortwave
currently straddling the michigan-indiana-ohio border (and producing
convection over southern lower michigan as of this writing) will
push eastward across the lower great lakes. This next source of
forcing will once again activate the conditionally unstable airmass
with renewed convection becoming likely over the western counties
toward sunrise. While there will not be any help from an overlying
h25 jet and instability like that from this afternoon will not be
available... Bulk shear values in the vcnty of 30kts combined with
dcva attendant to the passing shortwave could help to enhance some
of the elevated convection... For which low likely pops remain in
play. Otherwise... It will be a warm and muggy late summer night with
mins in the low to mid 60s.

Sunday will start with weakening convection over the western counties.

As the driving shortwave moves across lake ontario to the st lawrence
valley by midday... The leftover showers and possible thunderstorms will
be over the north country. Subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will
bring a reprieve of several hours over the western counties... Then
another round of thunderstorms will be possible for the southern tier
and finger lakes as a likely lake breeze boundary will push east from
lake erie.

While the Sunday will not be a washout... It may prove to be
uncomfortable. H85 temps that will start off in the mid teens c are
forecast to climb to the upper teens late in the afternoon. Mixing
this airmass would normally promote MAX temps in the mid to upper
80s... But given the likelihood for debris clouds from the morning
and midday convection... Have dropped temps back a couple degrees
from continuity. Nevertheless... MAX temps in the low to mid 80s with
dew points close to 70 will translate into apparent temps in the
upper 80s to lower 90s for the lake plains.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
This period will feature a continuation of warm and humid conditions,
with on and off chances for showers and storms.

A mid level shortwave and associated weak cold front will approach
our area Sunday night, then move through the region on Monday. This
will keep the chance for some scattered showers isolated storm in
the forecast for Sunday night, with better chances for convection by
Monday afternoon, as these features impinge on increased instability
owed to daytime heating. Increased southwest flow may lake shadow
areas northeast of lakes erie and ontario Monday afternoon.

The cold front will settle south of the area Monday night, then
stall out across northern pa and remain pretty much stationary
through the day on Tuesday. With no discernible mid level shortwaves
moving across the area during this time, will have just the chance
for a few showers isolated storm mainly across the southern tier and
finger lakes region closer the stalled boundary. Counties bordering
the southern lake ontario shoreline, east to the north country may
see mainly dry weather.

Stalled front across northern pa will start to slowly return north
as a warm front Tuesday night. At the same time, the next piece of
shortwave energy will approach the area. This will spread chances for
some showers isolated storms further north across the area, with the
best chance remaining across southern areas, with areas across the
north country once again having the best possibility of remaining
dry through late Tuesday night.

Otherwise, lowered temperatures a couple of degrees, however it will
still be on the warm side with fairly high humidity levels remaining
in place. Increased cloud cover ahead of the front on Monday, and a
slightly cooler airmass behind the cold front Tuesday will foster
highs generally within plus or minus a couple degrees of the mid
80s both days.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Warm temperatures will start this period on Wednesday before a cold
front tracks across the area. As the cold front tracks from west to
east, showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region on
Wednesday. Cold air advection will bring an end to the warmer than
normal temperatures for the remainder of the work week. With an
upper level trough still over the area, showers will be possible
through Thursday before increased ridging influences the area.

Friday and Saturday will experience dry conditions as this ridging
increases.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Cold air
advection will bring a cooler airmass to the region resulting in
temperatures in the low to mid 70s for Thursday and Friday. Warm air
advection on Saturday will result in temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s across the area.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
Dry and mainlyVFR conditions will predominate through 06z tonight.

Another disturbance approaching from the central great lakes will
then bring another round of scattered to numerous showers and some
thunderstorms to far western new york late tonight and early Sunday
morning... Along with possible attendant reductions to MVFR. Patchy
fog developing overnight may also produce some localized reductions
to ifr MVFR.

Vfr to MVFR CIGS will then be found over the region for at least the
first half of Sunday morning... As the disturbance and its weakening
convection will push from the western counties to the north country.

MainlyVFR weather is then expected for the midday and afternoon...

except for areas inland from the lakes where daytime heating and
developing lake breeze boundaries will help to generate another
round of scattered to numerous convection and associated brief
localized restrictions.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR to MVFR in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.

Tuesday...VFR... With a chance of showers and thunderstorms south of
buffalo and rochester.

Wednesday... Thunderstorms likely that could impact operations.

Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
A weak pressure gradient will maintain generally light to modest
winds across the lower great lakes through the rest of the weekend
and into early next week... Along with correspondingly minimal waves.

The above said... There will also be the risk for some showers and
thunderstorms later tonight Sunday and again Sunday night and
Monday... Some of which could produce locally stronger winds and
higher waves.

Looking further out into the middle of next week... A cold front
will cross the region on Wednesday along with more showers and
thunderstorms. In its wake... Increasingly brisk northwesterly
winds will bring an increase in wave action and could eventually
require the issuance of small craft advisories for Wednesday night
and Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr rsh
near term... Jjr rsh
short term... Jm
long term... Sw
aviation... Jjr rsh
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi53 min 73°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 53 mi59 min SE 2.9 G 7 68°F 1013.5 hPa65°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 71 mi59 min 71°F 71°F1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY27 mi1.7 hrsSE 710.00 miOvercast69°F65°F88%1013.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGTB

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE5S4CalmCalmS5SE4S4SE7SE6SE6S6SW8W5W5S8CalmSW4SW5SE4E3SE3SE7S5
1 day agoN5SE3N3E4CalmCalmSE3SE4SE4SE5--SE3SE3SE5E3E4--SE4SE4CalmS3CalmSE7SE8
2 days agoNE4NE4E5E4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE5SE4E3E6S4S4SE3SW3N5N3NE4E5NE5NE7NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.