Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ellisburg, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:17PM Monday August 10, 2020 2:59 PM EDT (18:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:45PMMoonset 11:53AM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Expires:202008102115;;238121 Fzus61 Kbuf 101741 Glflo Open Lake Forecast For Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 141 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Ontario Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A 30.1 inch high will drift to the eastern seaboard this afternoon. A weak cold front will then cross the lower great lakes Tuesday night. A 30.1 inch high will build into the great lakes Wednesday. Another 30.3 inch high will then build from northern ontario Thursday to central quebec by Friday. Loz063>065-102115- lake ontario open waters from hamlin beach to the saint lawrence river- 141 pm edt Mon aug 10 2020
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ065


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellisburg, NY
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location: 43.7, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 101858 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 258 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbance will produce a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but the vast majority of the time will be rain free. An approaching weak cold front will then bring some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warmth and humidity will continue through Tuesday before the cold front ushers in less humid air mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The vast majority of the region will be hot and rain-free this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s from the Genesee Valley to Central NY. A convectively augmented shortwave will pass north of Lake Ontario this afternoon. This combined with moderate diurnal instability and lake breeze boundaries will support a few showers and thunderstorms. These will be most widespread across the St Lawrence Valley, but also will develop across the Western Finger Lakes and even across Niagara County along a lake breeze convergence boundary.

Any widely scattered showers and storms will end this evening with the loss of daytime heating. This will leave dry weather and partly cloudy to mainly clear skies overnight. A very warm airmass and light breeze will keep temperatures very mild. Expect lows in the lower 70s on the lake plains, and mid 60s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County. The breeze will likely prevent fog formation despite the muggy airmass.

A weak mid level trough and associated weak cold front will approach and eventually move through the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. There may be a few showers and storms with a mid-level shortwave across Western New York Tuesday morning, but after this the lake breeze will become better established which should keep areas northeast of the lakes (Buffalo/Watertown) dry during the afternoon. Mesoscale guidance develops showers and storms along a pre-frontal trough axis Tuesday afternoon with this area moving east through the evening. There may be another round of scattered showers/storms with the cold front which will move across the area Tuesday night.

PWAT values climb to around 1.75 inches, so any storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Relatively weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates will limit the severe weather risk. This said, a few strong to severe pulse storms cannot completely be ruled out.

Tuesday will be another hot and humid day, with highs in the mid 80s across western NY and around 90 from the Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes region eastward at lower elevations. Expect slightly lower dew points Tuesday, with heat index values in the lower 90s from the Genesee Valley to the northern Finger Lakes and Oswego County.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. The surface front will be south of the area Wednesday morning helping to clear any residual showers. Front may still be close enough for an isolated afternoon showers/storm close to the New York/Pennsylvania line, but for the most part it will be dry Wednesday, and noticeably less humid as surface dewpoints drop back down into the 50s to lower 60s.

Zonal flow aloft exhibits more of a short wave ridge over the Great Lakes in the latest 12Z model package which maintains stronger surface high pressure across the region during the remainder of the period. This results in dry weather with typical mid August temperatures.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Surface front remains just to our south Friday as high pressure remains in control of the weather across the bulk of the area. This will provide dry weather for most of the region, however a few showers/storms cannot be ruled out across the Southern Tier, especially closer to the NY/PA line.

By Saturday, surface high pressure will shift northeast to Quebec/New England allowing moisture return to the area. This will keep daily chances of showers and thunderstorms during the weekend with coverage best during the afternoon and early evening. A cold front crossing the area Monday will lead to additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will run above average through most of the period with highs mostly in the mid 80s at lower elevations each day, with lows in the 60s. Cooler weather expected by Monday.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mainly VFR flight conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. The exception will be in any showers and thunderstorms. These will be possible through 23Z today, and again after 13Z Tuesday morning. Coverage will be scattered with any impact expected to last an hour or less at any one location. Wind should be strong enough tonight to prevent fog formation despite the muggy airmass.

Outlook .

Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night . Scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR prevailing, with brief MVFR/IFR possible in storms. Wednesday and Thursday . Mainly VFR. Friday and Saturday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE. Modest southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots this afternoon will produce some choppy wave action. Expect similar conditions again Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Light winds are then expected on Lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday through Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ003>006-013- 014. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/JM SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . TMA AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi65 min W 6 G 8 83°F 1015.4 hPa71°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 24 mi59 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 77°F 77°F1 ft1014.8 hPa (-1.0)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 69 mi119 min Calm G 2.9 80°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 70 mi65 min 80°F 1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY24 mi65 minSW 710.00 miFair90°F71°F54%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW86SW3NW7NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW3SW4SW3SW4SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmS5SW5SW7
1 day agoNW8N46NW5NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S3S5SW54SW9S8S8
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2 days agoN7N8NE5NE5N6CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3--CalmS4SW6SW4W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.