Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ellisburg, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 4:31PM Friday December 6, 2019 1:00 AM EST (06:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:57PMMoonset 1:23AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Expires:201912061015;;923050 Fzus61 Kbuf 060529 Glflo Open Lake Forecast For Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1229 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Ontario Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A 30.1 inch ridge will crest across the lower lakes tonight. A 29.8 inch trough will cross the lake Friday, with a 30.3 inch ridge forecast to crest across the lake on Saturday before moving to the mid atlantic states Sunday. A 29.7 inch low will track northeast across the lower great lakes Monday. Loz063>065-061015- lake ontario open waters from hamlin beach to the saint lawrence river- 1229 am est Fri dec 6 2019
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers, then snow late. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain Sunday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain during the day, then showers likely Monday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then lake effect snow and rain showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
LOZ065


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellisburg, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 060544 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1244 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak area of low pressure over Wisconsin will move across our forecast area on Friday. This will produce a general snowfall with most areas picking up a couple inches of accumulation. Some nuisance lake snows in its wake will then be found southeast of both lakes Friday night into Saturday. Milder weather can then be anticipated Sunday into the start of the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Warm air advection and moisture are increasing ahead of the next system, forcing clouds to thicken and lower across the eastern Great Lakes. Radar returns are slowly increasing just upstream across southern Ontario. These flurries and light snow showers will move into the area overnight, becoming more widespread by daybreak.

A 100kt jet streak over the Great Lakes late this evening will support an area of light snow that will gradually blossom into a large area of accumulating snow as it passes through the Lower Great Lakes on Friday. The expansion and intensification of the approaching synoptic based snow will come as a result of an associated sfc reflection becoming organized within a tight H925-70 baroclinic zone under the aforementioned UL jet.

As the sfc wave approaches our region late tonight . it will evolve into a weak 'clipper-like' low that will cross our region during the day Friday. Lift generated under the left front (exit region) quadrant of the 100kt H25 jet will coincide with forcing from a 40- 45kt low level jet to produce a 4-6 hour burst of steady snow that will cross our region LATE tonight through the first half of Friday morning. Snow accumulations will generally total one to three inches.

In the wake of the system . the widespread synoptic snow will give way to more lake driven snows Friday afternoon and evening as H85 temps will drop off to around -10c. The deepening cold air will prompt the limiting cap to rise to nearly 10kft . so this next round of lake snow could include some moderately heavy activity times Friday night. A general 300-310 steering flow will direct the lake effect into the typical snowbelts southeast of both lakes where two to four inches of accumulation will be possible. Outside of the main lake effect areas . there could be enough scattered snow shower activity to leave a coating in some areas. It will be a colder night with mins in the teens away from the lake shores.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Lake effect snow showers will continue into the morning on Saturday southeast of Lake Ontario. Snow showers will further dissipate through the morning as an area of high pressure tracks toward the area. As ridging increases with the high approaching from the southwest, lowering equilibrium heights and drier air will start to reduce the lake response off of Lake Ontario. By the start of this period, any lake response off of Lake Erie should be minimal to none as the drier air and ridging from the approaching area of high pressure gets to the Lake Erie area earlier.

Outside of any potential lake effect off of Lake Ontario, with the area of high pressure centering over the Finger Lakes by mid- afternoon on Saturday, the weather overall will be dry. This will continue through the late day on Sunday as the area of high pressure tracks east to the coast of New England by Sunday afternoon. As the area of high pressure crosses the region, west to northwest winds will shift to the south through the day on Saturday. As winds shift, cold air advection will weaken and warm air advection will take over from west to east. Before coming to an end, cold air advection will cause the 850H temperatures to bottom out at around -12C across WNY and to -15C east of Lake Ontario on Saturday morning. With the cold air advection continuing through Saturday, high temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s east of Lake Ontario and in the upper 20s to near 30 for all other areas.

Dry and cool conditions will continue through Saturday night as the area of high pressure slides east through the night. Temperatures Saturday night will be in the low to mid teens east of Lake Ontario, and in the upper teens to mid 20s for the higher terrain to the lake plains respectively.

On Sunday, as the area of high pressure tracks farther east and a trough approaches from the west, increased southerly flow will start to increase warm air advection through the day. With the area of high pressure influencing the weather, dry conditions are expected across the area through the daytime hours. After early morning lows in the upper teens to mid 20s, the afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 30s east of Lake Ontario and in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the rest of the area.

Sunday night, a frontal boundary and trough will slowly track toward the area. As the boundary tracks east, weak waves of low pressure will track northeast, increasing our chances for precipitation. Chance POPs will cover far WNY by the late evening, and continue to increase from west to east through the night. Increased forcing and increasing moisture will cause precipitation to track farther east into the area, and most locations will have likely POPs by daybreak on Monday. As precipitation starts, it should be mostly in the form of rain, but some higher spots where the temperatures remain cooler could see some mixing with or change to snow. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 30s across the higher terrain, and in the upper 30s to near 40 for the lower elevations.

On Monday, an area of low pressure centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley will track northeast along the nearly stationary boundary to Lake Huron by the evening on Monday, strengthening in the process. This area of low pressure will strengthen in the left exit region of a strengthening 250 jet with 250H winds reaching 160 kts as it tracks northeast across the Great Lakes. Precipitation on Monday will continue to overspread the region through the day, making for a soggy first day of the workweek. Most of the precipitation on Monday will be in the form of rain, but some snow or mixing with snow early will be possible in the higher terrain. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 40s across the higher terrain, and in the upper 40s to near 50 in the lower elevations.

Monday night, the area of low pressure will track northeast from near Lake Huron to western Quebec. As this system continues to track northeast, its trailing cold front will approach the area. Forcing and a continued moisture influx ahead of the front will help continue the likelihood of rain across the area. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Tuesday will be the big transition day. Temps will start out the day in the 40s, then quickly drop to around freezing or below area wide by the end of the day with rain showers changing over to snow showers. Much colder air will follow for the remainder of the period. Along with the cold air, the pattern appears favorable for significant lake effect snow east of Lakes Erie and Ontario Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night, possibly lingering into a portion of Thursday.

Low pressure will deepen and consolidate as it moves into Quebec Tuesday, with a trailing strong cold front moving across the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday. Showers will be likely Tuesday morning ahead of the cold front, then transitioning over to snow showers through the afternoon behind the front in the colder air, while synoptically driven precipitation winds down. Still appears that it will be a breezy to windy midweek as well, with the strongest winds slated for Tuesday into Tuesday night, but still no worse than advisory level at this time. This potential will continue to be watched in future model runs given the favorable track of the low.

Following the cold front, the first shot of dramatically colder air will move across the Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon. A reinforcing shot of even colder air will pour across the Lower Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday night, before slight modification of the airmass begins later Thursday. The magnitude and depth of the cold air, available moisture and position of upper level features all still look FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. However, specifics are not possible in terms of location and amounts at this time range. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Lingering areas of MVFR CIGS across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario will continue to dissipate through about 10Z. Meanwhile mid level clouds will continue to thicken and lower ahead of the next system. Flurries and light snow showers across southern Ontario will spread into the area before daybreak.

A small clipper system will move through the area today. This will support an area of snow along and north of its track, with the steadiest snow falling over Lake Ontario and areas just south of the lake, as well as the eastern Lake Ontario region. Expect a 4-6 hour period of IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS within this area of snow. Along and south of the low track, the snow will be more intermittent and nature, and may even mix with some rain at KBUF and KIAG briefly during the late morning and midday as surface temperatures warm above freezing. Expect mainly MVFR VSBY/CIGS in this area, with a brief period of IFR in snow showers as a cold front crosses during the late morning and early afternoon.

The widespread snow for northern areas will taper off this afternoon as the small system moves east of the area. This will be replaced by northwest flow lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes. This will produce areas of IFR VSBY southeast of Lake Erie this evening, including KJHW at times. This will taper off overnight as high pressure builds over Lake Erie. Areas of IFR VSBY will also develop southeast of Lake Ontario tonight in lake effect snow showers, mainly from just east of KROC to near KFZY. CIGS will generally be MVFR late this afternoon through tonight, with some local IFR possible for higher terrain and in a few of the more organized bands of lake effect snow showers.

Outlook . Saturday . Local MVFR/IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario early, otherwise VFR. Sunday . VFR. Monday . Areas of MVFR in rain showers. Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late.

MARINE. Northwest winds will continue to gradually weaken as a ridge of high pressure moves across the waters. Small Craft Advisories have been dropping this evening with only central to eastern Lake Ontario left.

In the wake of a clipper-like surface low on Friday . northwest winds will freshen on both lakes Friday night. This could lead to a new round of SCAs for Lake Erie and parts of Lake Ontario.

A large area of high pressure will pass over the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday. This will support generally light winds and negligible waves. Southerly winds will then freshen on both lakes late Saturday night and Sunday. While this will push the highest wave action into Canadian waters . rough conditions north of Mexico Bay could support a SCA.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for LOZ043>045.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/HSK/RSH SHORT TERM . SW LONG TERM . Hitchcock/JM AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . HSK/RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi42 min WNW 13 G 15 1017.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 69 mi60 min WSW 7 G 8.9 32°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 70 mi48 min 32°F 1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY24 mi66 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast31°F19°F64%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW5S4S5S6S5S7S6S6S7S7S7S7S6S7S7S6S7SW7SW6SW7SW8SW8SW7W9
2 days agoN11
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N9N10N9N8N7N4NW4W7NW8NW13NW10W10W12W9W8SW7S4S3SW5SW6SW7SW7SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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