Monday, March8, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ellisburg, NY

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 6:05PM Monday March 8, 2021 10:37 AM EST (15:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:04AMMoonset 12:53PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Expires:202011152310;;898662 Fzus71 Kbuf 152301 Mwsbuf Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 601 Pm Est Sun Nov 15 2020 Loz044-045-064-065-152310- /o.exp.kbuf.ma.w.0140.000000t0000z-201115t2300z/ 601 Pm Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning expired at 600 pm est... The affected areas were... Lake ontario from sodus bay to cape vincent... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Strong winds not related to Thunderstorms will continue tonight on lake ontario. Gale warnings are in effect. Lat...lon 4393 7608 4387 7609 4382 7618 4371 7616 4366 7610 4361 7615 4356 7616 4351 7620 4348 7629 4349 7640 4339 7659 4329 7667 4324 7697 4363 7697 4364 7679 4409 7644 4415 7634 4396 7601 time...mot...loc 2300z 270deg 58kt 4425 7602 4365 7615
LOZ065


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellisburg, NY
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location: 43.7, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 081332 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 832 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

SYNOPSIS. After a cold start to the day, a southerly flow will bring afternoon temperatures to near normal, then following the passage of a warm front tonight, a period of well above normal warmth will remain across the Eastern Great Lakes region through the week. A slow moving boundary will bring several opportunities for rain showers Wednesday night through Friday . that when combined with snow melt will swell local creeks and streams.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. While this mornings sounding is very dry at KBUF . regional radars are showing a broken line of snow showers pushing across the IAG Peninsula. Upstream obs show that some of this is reaching the ground . so have added 20 and 30 pops for flurries/snow showers for the western counties through midday.

Otherwise, clouds will increase from west to east as a warm front will push into the region. By late afternoon and evening east of Lake Ontario . the cloud deck will lower some along the warm front . and with an increase in moisture along the LLJ (to around 45 to 50 knots) light precipitation could develop. Initial warm front will be quickly followed by a weak cold front.

Aloft, a slight ridge of high pressure at 500 hPa will be flattened further as a strong shortwave trough dips towards the North Country. However this feature will arrive after the better moisture/lift passes across the North County . thus not expecting much in terms of measurable precipitation.

Precipitation type will be tricky. Moisture profiles are not great for snow formation, with moisture layer well below the good snow dendritic growth zone. Temperatures will also be around the freezing mark. Expect drizzle/light rain that could mix with snow or even freezing drizzle across the higher terrain. This precipitation will taper off late tonight.

Any upslope precipitation on the Hills east of Lake Erie will likely be in the form of drizzle tonight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Northwest upslope flow of marginally cold air may still support a low chance of a few flurries across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario early Tuesday morning. Otherwise a ridge of high pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes, with some morning clouds giving way to increasing sun. 850MB temperatures only make it to around 0C by afternoon and mixing will be somewhat limited with the ridge axis and associated subsidence inversion overhead. Expect highs in the mid to upper 40s for Western NY, and upper 30s to lower 40s for the North Country.

High pressure will drift to the east coast Tuesday night. Clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling in the evening, with temperatures dropping back into the low to mid 30s in Western NY and 20s east of Lake Ontario. These lows will likely occur by late evening, with increasing southerly return flow and warm advection allowing for rising temperatures overnight.

The warmth will arrive in earnest on Wednesday as the mid/upper level ridge axis reaches the east coast, and deep SSW flow increases across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. 850MB temps are not exceedingly warm, reaching around +5C by late afternoon. Nonetheless, warm advection, deep mixing, and SSW downslope flow will allow this airmass to reach its full warming potential, with highs reaching at least the lower 60s across the lake plains of Western NY, and mid to upper 50s for the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. The SSW wind direction will keep most of the lake induced cooling on the Canadian side of the border, with only areas along the Niagara River off Lake Erie, and near Cape Vincent off Lake Ontario seeing cooler temperatures. There will be some increase in mid/high clouds from west to east, but still expect a good deal of sunshine.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A mid level trough will advance from the Northern Plains Wednesday night to the Great Lakes by Thursday night. Deep moisture will gradually increase Wednesday night, with a pre-frontal trough possibly bringing a few scattered light rain showers overnight. Rain chances will remain limited through most of Thursday with the best forcing and moisture still remaining west and north of our region. Given the slower trend in the more widespread showers, confidence is increasing in another day of highs in the 60s for the lower elevations.

A better chance of rain showers will arrive late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as a cold front and possibly a wave of low pressure slowly approaches and then crosses the eastern Great Lakes. The stronger synoptic scale forcing will move from the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, leaving a weakly forced cold front to move southeast across our area Thursday night. The 00Z model guidance has trended away from the idea of any significant frontal wave for Thursday night. This may limit QPF to the 0.10-0.25" range with the cold front.

Somewhat cooler air will filter back into the region Friday as cold advection increases behind the cold front and the mid level trough reaches the eastern Great Lakes. Any lingering showers Friday morning will exit, with most areas becoming dry by afternoon.

The airmass continues to rapidly dry out Friday night and Saturday behind the cold front, so despite colder northwest flow expect mainly dry conditions. Highs by Saturday will be back in the upper 30s before another cold front is forecast to push southward across the area by Sunday, keeping highs in the 30s. The airmass remains quite dry and cold air remains shallow, so expect little to no lake response with mainly dry weather prevailing.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR flight conditions will be found across the TAF airfields. Mid and high level clouds will pass across the region today, with light precipitation over the far western counties before 16z and then late today and tonight over the Eastern Lake Ontario region. The latter precipitation will be along a 45 knot LLJ that will also bring limited LLWS to the region. Even so, precipitation will be spotty, with greatest chances east of Lake Ontario . but not high enough confidence to place any precipitation qualifier in the TAFs for KART. Behind a cold front later tonight cloud heights will lower, with possible MVFR flight conditions late for KART and KJHW.

Outlook .

Tuesday . some IFR/MVFR ceiling heights to start, then VFR Wednesday . VFR. Wednesday night and Thursday . Mainly VFR. A chance of showers. Thursday night and Friday . MVFR/IFR. Showers likely.

MARINE. An exiting surface high pressure will continue light winds and minimal waves on the Lakes today. A warm front, quickly followed by a cold front passage tonight will bring a slight increase to winds and a chop to waters . but likely conditions will remain near or below small craft thresholds.

Mild conditions on the Lakes will hold winds and waves below small craft thresholds Tuesday and Wednesday, but by Wednesday night and Thursday a tightening pressure gradient could strengthen wind speeds and bring winds and waves to small craft thresholds. A better scenario for small craft conditions being met will come Thursday night and Friday as a wavy frontal boundary crosses the Lakes.

HYDROLOGY. A limited flood risk will develop mid to late week as warmer temperatures bring increased snowmelt. There is little to no snow left across lower elevations, but the higher terrain headwater areas still have significant snowpack and snow water equivalent. Snowmelt will start off slow Tuesday, with modestly warm temperatures and low dewpoints only producing very slow melting. The melting will increase significantly Wednesday with much warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints arriving. Rainfall will be very limited this week, with latest model guidance suggesting 0.10" to 0.25" on average with most of that not falling until Thursday night.

Across Western NY, there is still 6-12 inches of snow depth across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, with 2-4 inches of water equivalent. Snowmelt will rapidly increase Wednesday and continue through Friday morning.

The snowmelt will produce rises on all of the creeks and rivers that drain the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, including all the Buffalo Creeks and the upper Allegheny River. The lack of rainfall will likely keep the flood risk limited. The previous warm weather about 10 days ago did start to break up and move ice on the Buffalo area creeks, and ice jams are in place along the lower reaches of the Buffalo River and Cazenovia Creek in South Buffalo. These areas likely have a somewhat greater flood risk if the ice jams can remain in place until higher flows develop late Wednesday and Thursday.

East of Lake Ontario snow depths of 2-3 feet remain across the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks, with snow water equivalent of 5-8 inches, which is near normal for early March.

Snowmelt will increase Wednesday and continue through Friday morning, resulting in rises along all the creeks and rivers that drain the higher terrain. Water levels will also rise along the Black River, but this is a fairly slow responding river, so the highest levels will not occur until next weekend along the middle and lower stretches of the Black River. Overall, the lack of significant rainfall will likely keep the flood risk limited.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Thomas NEAR TERM . Thomas SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . Thomas MARINE . Thomas HYDROLOGY . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi49 min WNW 5.1 G 8 28°F 1030.9 hPa15°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 69 mi37 min SSW 8.9 G 11 29°F 1031.5 hPa (-1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 70 mi49 min 29°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY24 mi43 minSSE 310.00 miFair26°F16°F66%1031.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8N11NW9NW8NW9NW6W11NW6CalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4S3
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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