Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ellisburg, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:15PM Thursday September 16, 2021 2:55 PM EDT (18:55 UTC) Moonrise 4:28PMMoonset 12:25AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Expires:202109162115;;713295 Fzus61 Kbuf 161352 Glflo Open Lake Forecast For Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 952 Am Edt Thu Sep 16 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Ontario Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A 30.2 inch high centered over the adirondacks this morning will drift across new england during the course of the day before moving off the coast this evening. The high will make its way across the canadian maritimes tonight and Friday while extending back across the lake. A weak 30.0 inch cold frontal boundary will cross the lake Saturday morning. Another 30.2 inch high will then build across the lower great lakes in the wake of the front Saturday afternoon and night. The high will be centered over the lake on Sunday. Loz063>065-162115- lake ontario open waters from hamlin beach to the saint lawrence river- 952 am edt Thu sep 16 2021
This afternoon..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
LOZ065


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellisburg, NY
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location: 43.7, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 161359 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 959 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will drift east across New England this afternoon before moving off the coast tonight and Friday. This will support fair dry weather with a warming trend to end the work week. The passing of a somewhat moisture starved cold front could spark a shower or isolated thunderstorm Friday night or Saturday, otherwise the upcoming weekend should feature dry weather with temperatures averaging a few degrees above normal.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure overhead at daybreak will push east during the course of the day, making its way off the coast tonight. This in tandem with substantial hgt rises will guarantee fair dry weather through tonight.

Return flow around aforementioned high pressure will elevate Tds back into the mid and upper 60s on Friday. Marginally unstable conditions in the afternoon could then yield a spotty shower. A warmer day with afternoons highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Heading into Friday night, a prefrontal trough ahead of a cold front placed over the central Great Lakes will continue to progress eastward across the eastern Great Lakes through the remainder of Friday. The passage of the prefrontal trough combined with the left over low level moisture from earlier in the day will support slight chances for showers and a few rumbles of thunder.

Then, the aforementioned cold front and main upper level trough axis will cross overhead Saturday, with the best upper level support grazing Northern New York. Therefore, with the frontal passage expect chances for showers Saturday morning. The frontal boundary will then sag southward and stall across the region Saturday afternoon. This combined with additional lift from daytime heating will create chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

Despite the stalled frontal boundary, showers and storms will cease by Saturday night, as the eastern fringes of the upper level ridge introduces subsidence to the region.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Sunday, the stalled frontal boundary from the day prior will lift northeast as a warm front. Meanwhile, upper level ridging and a large area of surface high pressure will span across the eastern Great Lakes. While the high pressure overhead will support subsidence and dry weather, the passage of the warm front will advect in warm air across the region, initiating a period of late summer warmth.

Surface high pressure and upper level ridge will slowly build east into New England Monday and Tuesday supporting both dry weather and warm days.

Meanwhile over the Rockies, an upper level trough will deepen and form a closed low. By Wednesday, the trough/ridge pattern will have slid east further, introducing deep southwesterly flow to develop overhead of the region. Additionally with the upper level trough advancing closer to the region, its associated surface low and frontal boundaries will cross the Great Lakes, introducing the next chances of showers.

Otherwise as alluded to previously, conditions will be on the warm side with high temperatures averaging around 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs each day will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s, with low to mid 70s in the higher terrain across the North Country.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Low conditions at KROC with improve to VFR between 14z and 1430z.

High pressure will assure us of VFR weather through tonight. The exception will be in the valleys of the Srn Tier where overnight stratus and fog will likely result in MVFR to IFR conditions at KJHW and KELZ.

Outlook .

Friday through Monday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. High pressure over Lake Ontario at daybreak will push east across New England during the course of today before moving off the coast tonight. This scenario will maintain light winds and negligible waves over the Lower Great Lakes through Friday.

While there will be a minimal chance for showers Friday night and Saturday . a weak sfc pressure will promote continued light winds with little wave action throughout the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . RSH/TMA NEAR TERM . RSH/TMA SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . RSH MARINE . Apffel/RSH/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi61 min NNW 6 G 8.9 71°F 1023.8 hPa59°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 24 mi55 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 71°F1024.1 hPa (-0.3)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 69 mi55 min ENE 12 G 14 70°F 1024.7 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 70 mi61 min 70°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY24 mi61 minS 310.00 miFair72°F54°F53%1023.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm433S3
1 day ago43SE33S4S5S5S7S8S9S12
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W5S5S6S4SW6SW4NW7NW5NW6NW5
2 days ago--W7NW10NW6CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm354SE45

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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