Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Reedsport, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:44PM Saturday November 28, 2020 7:44 PM PST (03:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 5:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 205 Pm Pst Sat Nov 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..NE wind 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun..E wind 5 kt...veering to S 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun night..S wind 10 to 15 kt...rising to 15 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 4 to 5 ft after midnight. NW swell 8 ft at 15 seconds. Rain likely.
Mon..W wind 5 to 15 kt...veering to nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. W swell 11 to 14 ft. Rain likely through the day.
Mon night..N wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 13 to 15 ft.
Tue..NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 10 to 11 ft.
Tue night..NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 8 ft...subsiding to 6 ft after midnight.
Wed..E wind 10 kt...veering to se. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 ft...building to W 8 ft.
Thu..E wind 5 kt...backing to ne. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 12 ft.
PZZ300 205 Pm Pst Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..SEas will diminish into Sunday. A warm front will brush past to the north late Sunday, followed by a strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning. Gusty south winds and a building long period northwest swell will accompany the front with high and steep seas across the waters and gusts approaching gale force north of cape arago. Seas will peak late Monday, but remain high through Tuesday as a thermal trough briefly returns to the coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reedsport, OR
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location: 43.71, -124.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 282200 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 200 PM PST Sat Nov 28 2020

DISCUSSION. 28/12Z NAM/GFS in.

A front off the coast is now dissipating as the upper level support heads out to the southeast. Very little precipitation related to the front has been recorded thus far, just a hundredth here and there. Meanwhile, low clouds and fog are slowly eroding over the Umpqua and Rogue basins, indicating that the front has not induced much mixing of the air mass.

Weak ridging will return tonight into Sunday. This will allow the stagnant conditions to continue. Inversions over the valleys will be slow to burn off in the daytime and some areas may not clear at all. Winds in the valleys will be light, but above the inversions, dry easterly flow aloft will keep the ridges clear and relatively warm.

A stronger short wave will move in Monday, and this will push a front onshore late Sunday night into Monday. This will be the most significant system between now and next Friday, but it will also be on the weak side.

There will be some rain at the coast late Sunday night into Monday morning with some precipitation reaching to the Cascades by late Monday morning. Most of the support for this system will push east of the area Monday afternoon and precipitation will end by Monday evening. The current forecast shows a tenth to around a third of an inch at the coast and also over to the Cascades north of Crater Lake, with lesser amounts to the south and east. This would result in an inch or so of snow for areas above 4500 feet in the Cascades. The front will weaken as it moves east of the Cascades, so precipitation chances will diminish to less than 15% in parts of Modoc/eastern Lake Counties. The front will induce some mixing in the air mass, and should be enough to end the Air Stagnation Advisory currently in effect.

However, dry weather and air stagnation will return, as another ridge will build into the area Monday. This one will be stronger and, while it won't quite make it to omega block status, it will progress east very slowly, making for a dry week.

Extended forecast discussion . Wed 03 Dec through Sat night 05/06 Dec 2020. Strong upper level ridging will be the dominant weather driver during the extended period. This means another period of stagnant weather with dry conditions and overnight/morning fog for west side valleys. The deterministic GFS/EC solutions attempt to bring fronts into the area, but they all wash out as they move into the strong ridge. Model ensembles and cluster analysis support dry conditions during this time, lending to high confidence in this pattern. This pattern isn't likely to change through at least next weekend. In fact, the National Blend of Models, as well as the vast majority of model ensembles for both the GFS and EC, support mostly dry conditions continuing into the second week of December. Although a weak front may pass through the area on or around the 6th, model ensembles indicate a more appreciable change around December 9th/10th. /BR-y

AVIATION. For the 28/18Z TAFs . LIFR/IFR in valley fog and low clouds is common again this morning across west side valleys. Some patchy fog is near KLMT, towards Klamath Lake, but isn't expected to reach KLMT this morning. Otherwise, VFR prevails across the area and will do so through the TAF period. A weak front stretches across the area with some high level cirrus, and that should be the extent of the influence with this front. The lower conditions in the valleys are expected to improve by this afternoon, although with later improvement times compared to yesterday. Confidence in timing remains low. These lower conditions will return to similar areas tonight into Sunday morning. /BR-y

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PST Saturday 28 Nov 2020 . Weak high pressure will result in diminishing seas into Sunday. A warm front will brush past to the north late Sunday, followed by a strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning. Gusty south winds and a building long period northwest swell will accompany this frontal passage with steep seas hazardous to small craft across the waters and gusts late Sunday night approaching gale force north of Cape Arago.

Seas are expected to peak on Monday afternoon into the early evening with a heavy long-period northwest swell of 13 to 17 feet at 15 to 17 seconds. Seas are expected to diminish Tuesday into Wednesday but a thermal trough will develop at the coast with seas remaining high and steep Tuesday as north winds increase over the waters. These winds will be strongest south of Gold Beach. Seas then may remain steep as they briefly diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Models have begun to show some consistency in indicating a building long period west to northwest swell Wednesday into Thursday with seas rising from 7 ft to around 14 ft. -DW

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM PST Monday for ORZ023>031.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 4 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

15/03/16


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 24 mi49 min 52°F7 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 28 mi69 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 1025.7 hPa
SNTO3 32 mi75 min Calm 40°F 1027 hPa40°F
46128 37 mi105 min 50°F 51°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR21 mi49 minSE 610.00 miFair45°F44°F97%1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE6SE7SE6SE9SE5SE6SE8SE8SE8SE7SE7SE10SE8S6E3CalmW33W5NW3CalmSE4SE6
1 day agoNE8CalmNE3SE4S4SE4SE3CalmNE4SE4SE4SE6SE5SE3SE4NE3CalmCalmW4W4W5SW3SE3SE3
2 days agoSE6SE6SE7SE6SE5SE6SE5SE5SE5S4SE4SE4SE6SE5SE4E3CalmNE3NW6N7NE5N7CalmNE6

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM PST     5.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM PST     2.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:40 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:27 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:35 AM PST     7.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:01 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:40 PM PST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.45.34.73.832.42.32.83.856.26.976.45.33.82.310.30.20.71.83.14.4

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:13 AM PST     2.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:41 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:28 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:08 AM PST     6.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:14 PM PST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.354.33.42.72.32.53.24.35.56.56.96.75.84.63.11.70.60.10.31.12.33.64.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.