Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Creek, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:08PM Saturday August 8, 2020 2:35 AM EDT (06:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:50PMMoonset 10:42AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Creek, NY
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location: 43.71, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 080548 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 148 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. It will be partly to mostly cloudy with an isolated showers, as an upper level disturbance moves across the region this morning. While a lingering shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon, most of the weekend looks dry with milder temperatures. Hot and muggy weather is expected next week, with an increasing chance for afternoon thunderstorms by mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 135 AM EDT . A short-wave trough will move across the region this morning. The isolated shower/thunderstorm activity has been very minimal. A few showers popped up over south- central VT, but have moved east/northeast of the region. The CAMS have struggled with this short-wave trough, and we lowered the PoPs and removed thunderstorms with this update. The latest SPC RAP Mesoanalysis has less than 500 J/kg of instability with SBCIN setting up. There is also an abundance of clouds. We may get some patchy fog especially with some clearing to the west of the Hudson River Valley between 09Z-12Z. Overall, our forecast reflects the last few runs of the 3-km HRRR with minimal shower activity. We did leave PoPs in the low chance range north and east of the Capital Region where better forcing may occur with the short-wave trough passage. Temps have fallen off into the mid/upper 50s in the southern Adirondacks per the NYS mesonet analysis. Expect lows to range from the mid 50s /isolated lower 50s/ to near 60F over the higher terrain, and upper 50s to mid 60s in the valley areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The trough axis looks to be east of the Hudson River by 8 AM tomorrow, so any lingering showers tomorrow are most likely over eastern areas. However, CAMs have been developing some diurnal showers over the terrain tomorrow afternoon so have chance POPs over the terrain with slight chance over valley areas. Mostly rain showers expected with an isolated thunderstorm possible as some instability present. Lows saturday from the 50s in the hill towns to the 60s in the valley areas. Highs saturday from the 70s in the hill towns to the low to mid 80s for valley areas with a mix of sun and clouds.

High pressure at the surface coupled with a narrow upper level ridge axis builds in starting Saturday night, and should allow for dry weather to return for most of Sunday. Lows on Sunday morning still pleasant with 50s hill towns to 60s valley areas. With rising heights and warming temps aloft, sfc temps Sunday should reach in the mid to upper 80s for valley areas with dewpoints creeping back upward through the 60s with a mostly clear sky. Another shortwave may pass through later Sunday into Sunday night, which could bring some showers/thunder to the northwest part of the area later Sunday/Sunday night. Overnight lows will be muggier, mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The long-term period will feature warm trending very/hot temperatures and humid conditions. Additionally, this period also has the potential to be quite unsettled with day-to-day chances of rain/thunderstorms Tues-Fri.

The large-scale setup during this period will consist of a vast, hot upper ridge increasingly expanding in coverage day-to-day. By the end of the period, this hot ridge will be encompassing much of the country (especially the southern two-thirds). Further to the north, a quasi-zonal flow will be re-treating to near the U.S.-Canadian border with several weak mid-upper level impulses tracking from west to east along the quasi-zonal jet.

At the surface, a cold front will translate from the central U.S. into the eastern U.S. in time. The cold front starts off over the northern Plains on Monday, shifting into the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday, the front is progged to slow/stall somewhere over the Ohio Valley into the Northeast U.S.

Given this background, there's the potential for our FA to be quite unsettled through at least parts of this period. Monday has the best chance to remain dry with the aforementioned cold front still a ways to our west and a surface high pressure system in control.

Tuesday will be interesting as the cold front appears to slow/stall out somewhere over or in the vicinity of our region with showers and storms ahead of it. Right now it looks as if the front on Tuesday will slow/stall over the eastern Great Lakes. With showers and storms ahead of this slowing/stalling front, it remains unclear as to how much of an eastward advancement these storms make into our FA and how organized the convection will be. As of now, have the west/northwest sections of our cwa under the greatest PoPs for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday with PoPs ranging 20-30% areawide.

Wednesday-Friday, there's better upper dynamic support to go along with a surface boundary stalled somewhere over the area for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The best chance for showers and storms will be along and south of I-90 given the current setup.

As far as temperatures, we should see a warmer than normal bias in temperatures (Tsfc) across eastern New York and western New England Monday-Friday. Daytime high temperatures (Tmax) are progged to gradually trend upwards starting from the mid 80s (cooler higher elevations) on Monday to the low 90s (cooler higher elevations) by Friday as the aforementioned upper ridge builds northward. Low temperatures (Tmin) generally run the 60s across the area with a few low 70s possible across the warmest locations. Humidity levels will be elevated with dewpoints (Td) expected in the mid 60s to lower 70s areawide Monday-Friday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An upper level disturbance will move eastward across the region this morning, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers. Will mention VCSH at TAF sites. Plenty of mid level clouds in place as of 06Z, so not expected much fog development. Will mention some light fog (BR) with possible MVFR vsby, but IFR is not anticipated at this time. Guidance showing possible lower stratus clouds developing by early morning, however observations around the region do not show any nearby. So will mention lowering cigs, but remaining at VFR levels.

Mid level clouds should linger into the early afternoon, then scouring out as subsidence develops in wake of the departing disturbance. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out into the afternoon, but probability too low to mention in the TAFs.

Winds will be light and variable, then becoming southerly around 5 kt by this afternoon.

Outlook .

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA.

FIRE WEATHER. A few showers or t-storms are possible for today into Saturday morning, but not all areas will see precipitation. RH values should recover close to 100 percent tonight night with dew formation. RH values drop to 50 to 75 percent on Saturday, and will recover to nearly 100 percent Sunday morning with dew again likely. Winds will be very light and variable over the next few days, generally under 5 mph.

HYDROLOGY. Forecast rainfall across our area over the next 7 days ranges from around a quarter inch to around an inch. Rainfall will be variable during this period due to thunderstorms, but the highest amounts look to be in the eastern Catskills. Localized ponding of water or poor drainage flooding is possible where thunderstorms produce heavy downpours. No river flooding is forecast.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . SND/Wasula NEAR TERM . SND/KL/Wasula SHORT TERM . SND/Frugis LONG TERM . Evbuoma AVIATION . JPV FIRE WEATHER . SND HYDROLOGY . SND


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45188 41 mi51 min SSE 1.9 66°F 74°F1022.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY32 mi43 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F64°F97%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGFL

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW3CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm356S5S4S3E3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3SW3S5NE4Calm5CalmSE3SE8SE6S8S6S3CalmCalmE5CalmCalmSW3
2 days agoCalmS5S5S8S8S9S7SW7W9W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:00 AM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:54 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:32 PM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.40.90.30.31.22.53.64.24.44.13.22.11.20.6-0.1-0.40.21.52.93.74.24.23.6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:44 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:24 PM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.40.80.20.41.42.73.74.34.4431.91.10.5-0.2-0.40.41.833.84.24.13.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.