Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 4:21 AM   Moonset 5:17 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 051948 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 348 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
With continued cool conditions, steady rain will taper to showers for this evening into tonight. Clouds will break for some sunshine on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the region.
Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the threat for showers returns Wednesday into the latter portion of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 348 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary is located over Ontario and across the Great Lakes. Ahead of this storm system, decent isentropic lift thanks to a south-southwest low level jet of 30-40 kts is allowing for a steady area of light to moderate rainfall over much of the region. The steadiest and heaviest rain is in a band from the mid Hudson Valley northeast through the eastern Capital Region, Taconics and Berkshires and into southern VT. Through the the early evening hours, this band of steadiest rainfall will be slowly shifting eastward into New England.

As the steadiest rain starts to exit off to the east this evening, precip will start to become more showery in nature, thanks to the best isentropic lift shifting northeast of the area. Still, additional showers are expected for late this evening and into the overnight, as our area will be still downstream of the slow moving frontal boundary to the west, as the moist southerly low level flow, aided by the cyclonic flow aloft, will continue to allow for additional showers. In addition, some patchy fog may start to develop, especially for sheltered areas for the overnight hours. In total, some areas will have seen over an inch of rain in total (especially within the Capital Region, parts of the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks), although no hydro impacts expected to recent dry weather and rainfall rates being manageable.

Temps have been steady all day in the mid 40s to low 50s. These temps will continue into the overnight, with not much variation expected due to the widespread cloud cover. Although winds have been gusty from the south through the day, they will gradually start to come down through the overnight hours.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The surface front will finally be crossing the area from west to east during the day on Monday. A few additional spotty showers can't be ruled out with the front (mainly eastern and southern areas), but moisture will become limited, as the high PWAT air will have shifted off to the east. While all areas will start the day cloudy, increasing sun is expected by afternoon as the front crosses through and winds switch to the west. It may take until later in the day for the sun to finally break out for southeastern areas. Temps should rise fairly quickly once the sun breaks out, as warm temps should still allow for a mild afternoon, with highs in valley areas back into the low to mid 70s (60s for the high terrain).

Better clearing is expected for Monday night with quiet weather.
Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s with the fairly clear skies and light winds thanks to nearby surface high pressure.

A warm and sunny day in expected on Tuesday thanks to high pressure. With plenty of sun expected and 850 hpa temps of +5 to +8 C, highs should reach into the 70s once again for many valley areas. While Tuesday evening will start off dry, clouds will be increasing and a threat for showers will arrive by the late night hours, as the next shortwave starts to approach from the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term period.

Area of low pressure will be tracking close to the area on Wednesday. Recent model runs have speed the timing of this feature up slightly, so the best chance of rain may be from Tuesday night into the first half of the day on Wednesday. Some instability may still be present (especially southern areas), so can't rule out some thunder, but still unclear if there will be a threat for stronger storms, especially considering the earlier timing of this system. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and more humid for Wednesday with the showers and possible t-storms.
Temps still look to reach the 60s and 70s.

There should be a brief dry stretch behind this initial system, so much of Wed night looks dry into start of Thursday, but another system will be impacting the region for the late week.
Have gone with high chc to likely POPs for Thurs/Fri as another slow moving shortwave moves across the area with some additional showers. Instability looks lower than Wednesday, but a stray rumble can't be ruled out. Highs look mainly in the 60s with lows in the 40s for Thursday into Friday.

Over the weekend, there are some differences in the models regarding the next approaching storm trough. There could be a period of ridging allowing for some dry and quiet weather before another round of showers heads towards the area. The timing is still uncertain, so will keep the chance for showers for both Saturday and Sunday, although it's possible some dry weather could occur. Temps could be a little below normal with highs in the lower 60s, although it will depend on the exact coverage of clouds/sun.



AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 18Z Monday...A frontal system continues to impact the region this afternoon with persistent, widespread rain continuing to impact the four ALY terminals. Conditions are currently MVFR at KALB/KGFL/KPSF with lowered ceiling heights and/or restricted visibility, while KPOU is IFR.

While rain has shown some degree of lessening in spatial spread, expectation remains for consistent precipitation to continue for the next several hours before reducing to mere showers just before or just after 00z. TEMPO and prevailing groups were included to account for the continuation of MVFR conditions or a brief worsening to IFR conditions (lowered ceilings) through the next 6-9 hours in response to showers passing through the terminals.

Once the rain tapers off, MVFR ceilings will generally remain prevalent except possibly at KALB where thermal profiles showed some drying in the low levels which could allow ceilings to rise to VFR levels. It is possible that with the high amount of moisture trapped in the low levels that some patchy fog could impact the terminals during the overnight period. However, with confidence low in this element of the forecast due to the expectation of persistence in mostly cloudy skies and a light breeze, maintained MVFR to IFR conditions.

Winds will remain breezy this afternoon, especially at KALB and KPSF, with sustained speeds ranging from 8-12 kt and gusts up to 20-25 kt (KALB/KPSF). Speeds will decrease overnight, ranging from about 2-5 kt through the remainder of the 18z TAF period.
Winds will remain primarily out of the south throughout the period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.



ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Sun -- 09:53 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:37 PM EDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:10 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
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