Wednesday, October28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 6:33PM Wednesday October 28, 2020 10:59 PM EDT (02:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:44PMMoonset 3:56AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 952 Pm Edt Wed Oct 28 2020
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202010290915;;994478 FZUS53 KDTX 290152 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 952 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-290915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 290213 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1013 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1008 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Weak cold front slowly working its way south across the area this evening. Band of rain running right along this front, especially impacting eastern upper and the Tip of the Mitt counties of northern lower. Expect this more widespread rain to gradually come to an end, with the focus later tonight into Thursday turning to the development of north/northeast flow lake effect processes. Loss of synoptic moisture contribution and somewhat limited inversion heights (~5K feet) should keep overall organization of any lake-induced showers light and disorganized. Some of these showers will mix with some snow, but with minimal, if any, accumulation.

NEAR TERM. (Through Thursday) Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

. Nuisance precip through Thursday .

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude troughiness/quasi-zonal flow remains intact from the northern Plains through the Great lakes with the upper jet axis stretched overhead across the state. Earlier spotty precip across the north this morning is long gone as expected. Mainly sunny skies for the moment south of M-72. But a pesky StratoCu deck (likely with some lake origin) has remained fixed across the tip of the mitt stuck under a rather stout inversion layer at ~4K feet, along with thicker high cloud cover descending southward into the region.

Meanwhile at the surface, W-E oriented boundary, attached to low pressure well north over Hudson Bay, is just coming south across Lake Superior. Another upper level speed max and uptick in QG- forcing for ascent is sliding into the western lakes and producing our next round of light precip zipping across northern Wisconsin and the western U.P. This one has a bit more kick with surface obs reporting some light rain and measurable precip.

Upper level speed max/pocket of QG-forcing for ascent will slide through northern Michigan tonight, while surface boundary and colder low level air sags down through the region. This will bring our next round of light precip across mainly the northern half of the CWA this evening into the overnight, followed by some light lake induced precip on northerly/northeasterly flow later overnight into Thursday.

Initially, spotty light rain showers this evening. But as surface temps cool, expect some mixiness or light snow in spots. Similar story for Thursday with spotty light lake effect snow or rain/snow showers through the day.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

. Warming Trend through Saturday .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes . High pressure builds into the region, but with the N and NNE flow, and the -8c 850 mb temperatures (water temperatures are still around 14c in N Lake Michigan) Lake effect snow is possible over portions of N Lower. Bands look like they could form over N Lake Michigan that could affect areas along the Lake Michigan shore from the tip of the Leelanau Peninsula to Manistee, depending on the model (wind direction differences) and in NE Lower from about APN and points south along the Lake Huron shore. The other issue will be the dry air that moves into the region from Canada at the same time. So there will be a chance for snow showers along the Great Lakes. Friday, the winds shift and it looks like the ridge axis moves through, which should stop the snow by the afternoon. With the warm advection, the night will remain dry as well with the SW winds, which continue on into Saturday evening. The cold front which ushers in the cold air that could be more significant, doesn't look like it crosses the region until late Saturday night. See below for the discussion on the cold air.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . First accumulating snow possible on Saturday night/Sunday

Extended (Saturday Night through Wednesday) . models have some timing differences with the rain and cold front initially, but only by a few hours. For the most part, the models are in agreement with the general evolution: The cold front moves into E Upper and through N Lower by 12z/Sun. This leads to rain, until sometime between 06z/Sun and 12z/Sun as the models bring in the -8C air (850 mb) by 12z/Sun switching the rain to snow in E Upper and NW Lower sometime during the morning, and by the afternoon in NE Lower as the cold air gets. The bands that set up will be kind of all over the place as the trough that is driving the lake effect/enhancement switch quickly from West to Northwest to North-Northwest. This doesn't bode well for residence times, so think that most areas, will have minor to light snow (trace to 3") and that some area will have a moderate (3-5") amount, due to band mergers that could thump a location. Trying to not go to wild with this. By Monday, a warm front and dry air will move through the region, end the cold air and lake effect. This looks to kick off the dry and the at or above normal temperature period that was advertised on the 8-14 and 6-10 day outlooks a couple of days ago. Tuesday and Wednesday show warming temperatures under the sfc high.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 751 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Cold front will continue to sag south across the taf locations overnight. This front will bring some pockets of light rain, mostly impacting KPLN. Post-frontal cold air advection will lower CIGS to MVFR later tonight through Thursday morning. CIGS heights will rise back to VFR heading through Thursday.

MARINE. Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

West to southwest gustiness continues into this evening before diminishing overnight. Cold front sags down through the region later tonight turning winds into the north. Expect some northerly flow gustiness on Thursday which may lead to more small craft advisory headlines for some nearshore areas.

Very gusty winds are possible again Saturday into Sunday with gale warning possibilities . and storm force gusts are not out of the question Stay tuned.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ347>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ323- 342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . mb MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi119 min SW 16 G 18 49°F 1012.9 hPa (+0.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi79 min SW 16 G 20 49°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi79 min SW 6 G 8.9 48°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi64 minN 010.00 miOvercast42°F33°F72%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCFS

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN5N4CalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmSW3CalmCalmW5W4SW3SW3SW4SW6SW6S4S4S3S4S4SW4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW5NW5NW6W7NW10
G15
W6W6W7SW6SW4SW3W4N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.