Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 12:02 AM   Moonset 8:09 AM

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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 342 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning - .
Tonight - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots this evening, then increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Cloudy. Numerous showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest early in the afternoon. Cloudy. Scattered showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Numerous showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 282300 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms through Monday.

- Potential for a few showers mainly north and west Wednesday night

- Unsettled weather featuring showers and perhaps some thunder chances set to close out the week.

- Cooler airmass looks to intrude by the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Shortwave ridging currently encompasses the western Great Lakes region with more amplified troughing upstream across the northern Plains and Great Plains. Ridge axis slides east of the forecast area this evening with troughing becoming more prevalent tonight through Monday. At the surface, yesterday's cold front now situated over southern and central lower MI, effectively becoming a warm front tied to low pressure centered near the NE/IA border early this afternoon. That warm front will slowly move north over the next 24-36 hours as low pressure meanders through the upper Mississippi Valley to near western Lake Superior by 00z Tuesday.

Forecast Details:

Occasional showers/storms through Monday: A few waves of scattered to numerous showers are anticipated this afternoon (already ongoing) through tonight as warm, moist advection/isentropic ascent continue to spread across northern Michigan. Suppose a few rumbles of thunder not entirely out of the question later this afternoon into tonight given fumes of elevated instability.
Those shower chances progged to continue Monday -- most numerously early Monday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon in advance of a cold front tied to aforementioned low pressure passing to our northwest. While stronger storms aren't necessarily expected, it'll be worth monitoring instability trends for Monday afternoon given pre-frontal effective bulk shear progged around 35 kts.

Low temps tonight in the upper 30s far north and through the 40s for much of northern lower. Wide range in high temps expected Monday, largely hinging on warm frontal placement by mid-afternoon. Current trends support highs in the low 50s over eastern upper and from the mid-50s near the Straits and far northeast lower to the mid 60s through low 70s near and south of M-32.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: 500mb low and associated broad surface low pressure (~1005mb in the vicinity of Sioux City, IA) evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Plains and western Corn Belt.
Attendant stationary boundary stretching east through southern Michigan will be drawn northward with the system as the surface low moves eastward through Lake Superior Monday, leaving us with a cold frontal passage early Monday night that will bring about some continuity of showers and perhaps some embedded thunder across northern Michigan Monday night. Following the passage of the front, cooler (but still relatively mild) air will reside overhead beneath a well defined subsidence inversion, resulting in just some diurnal cumulus through the day Tuesday. Next batch of showers set to intrude into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday as a wave ejects from the northern Rockies and rides zonal flow enhanced by disheveled longwave troughing over the Canadian prairies. Zonal flow continues as the front becomes stationary over Michigan before another wave ejects into the central Plains, with surface low potentially deepening considerably before lifting through the upper Midwest into Canada, bringing another shot at some showers and perhaps some thunder toward the weekend, and the return of cooler air.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain should trend less widespread through the overnight hours on Monday as the surface low clears Lake Superior and synoptic subsidence intrudes into the Great Lakes. Overall, not a lot of additional rainfall Monday night as the bulk of the forcing and energy departs to the east, marked by some lingering showers / thunder near Saginaw Bay in the evening (CAMs still have some meager surface instability on the order of ~500 J/kg thru 03z Tuesday), and some showers right along the passing surface cold frontal boundary that should be moving into Lake Huron by 09z Tuesday. Expecting drier weather to build rather quickly from west to east, with perhaps just some lingering showers around the Soo by sunrise. It will be replaced by drier weather for Tuesday, with partly sunny skies amid a westerly flow with temps in the 50s across the eastern UP and Lake Michigan shores, with 60s elsewhere (possibly near 70 closer to Saginaw Bay?).

Next shower chances will be late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a quick moving wave races northeast through Minnesota. Given origins from the northern Rockies, not a ton of moisture to work with this one. This feature will slingshot a warm front into the region, while surface low pressure occludes over western Lake Superior and lifts northward. Result will be limited shower coverage the farther south and east one goes across the CWA, with better shower chances north and west (as stated by previous forecaster). Flow associated with this front looks to be parallel, which may lead to the front becoming more stationary overhead. This may open the door for more unsettled weather to close out the week before the bigger Plains low develops and forces the pesky stationary boundary out of the Great Lakes as a cold front passes closer to the weekend. Will have to watch how much cooler the resulting airmass is for frost/freeze potential considering area trees / plants may be reaching critical points in growth stages.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Low pressure currently centered over Iowa will slowly lift NE into and thru Lower Michigan tonight and Monday. Deep moisture surging northward ahead of this system will continue to produce widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across all of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan thru Monday evening.
Conditions will drop to IFR as widespread showers develop tonight and Monday. Surface winds will be mainly from the E/NE at 15 to 25 kts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345>348.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321- 322.

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