Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dunes City, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 4:42PM Friday December 6, 2019 7:54 AM PST (15:54 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 1:42AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 232 Am Pst Fri Dec 6 2019
.hazardous seas warning in effect through Saturday morning...
Today..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft... Building to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. NW swell 4 ft at 12 seconds... Becoming sw 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds and W 5 ft at 14 seconds in the morning, then...building to 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds and W 6 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 10 to 15 kt except S 10 to 20 kt cape arago southward. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. SW swell 7 to 8 ft at 11 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. SW swell 6 to 7 ft. Showers.
Sun..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 5 to 6 ft and nw 3 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..N wind 5 kt...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 4 ft and nw 4 ft...shifting to the nw and sw 3 ft after midnight.
Mon..E wind 5 kt...veering to se in the afternoon, then... Veering to S in the evening...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt...veering to S 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 4 to 5 ft. W swell 6 ft...building to 8 ft and W 5 ft.
PZZ300 232 Am Pst Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. South winds will continue to increase this morning ahead of an incoming cold front and then will remain elevated into Saturday. The front will produce gales in southwest portions of the area and steep seas will steepen to very steep for all areas by the afternoon. These very steep seas will continue through much of Saturday. Conditions will gradually improve Saturday night into Sunday. Relatively calm conditions are forecast for early next week. Another front may arrive as early as Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunes City, OR
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location: 43.93, -124.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 061022 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 219 AM PST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. An upper level low well off the northern California coast early this morning will move east and weaken through Saturday morning. This will bring periods of light rain to the area. The unsettled conditions continue through Saturday night. High pressure returns to the area Sunday and persists into early next week for another potential round of air quality issues.

SHORT TERM. Friday through Sunday . At 10Z water vapor satellite imagery revealed a weak 500 mb ridge axis extending from the Great Basin to the north Washington coast. Meanwhile, a large upper level low was noted near 39N 138W and will be the primary weather feature through the short term.

Offshore flow continues through the Gorge early this morning. At 09Z the KTTD-KDLS gradient was -6 mb, slightly down from the -6.5 mb around 06Z. This has produced gusts of 60-70 mph at the usual windy spots at the west end of the Gorge. Models show the gradient peaking late tonight through Fri morning, likely ending up closer to -7 mb vs. the -5 to -5.5 the NAM suggests. Fog is less extensive early this morning, but areas of dense fog have developed in the south Willamette Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding the large upper low off the north California coast. A weakening occluded front is expected to reach the coastline around 18Z and then ease inland in the afternoon. However, with the frontal boundary becoming parallel to the mid and upper flow, its eastward progression will be slowed. Precipitation may not reach the Cascades until mid to late afternoon. South 850 mb and 700 mb flow this afternoon will not be conducive to orographic enhancement for the Cascades and Oregon Coast Range. The 18Z ECMWF 12-hr QPF ensembles valid 00Z Sat suggest about a tenth of an inch for the coast and Coast Range and a few hundredths at best elsewhere.

The upper low weakens as it moves east Friday night through Saturday morning. Embedded mini-shortwave troughs rotating around the parent low pressure will likely enhance rainfall across the area at times Friday night into Saturday. However, forecasting areas of enhanced QPF Friday night through Saturday will be tricky. The 850-700mb mean flow becomes more southwest during this period for some orographic enhancement for the mountains. Snow levels Friday night through Saturday will remain above the passes.

The primary surface low meanders into northwest California Saturday afternoon. The GFS has come more in line with the NAM and ECMWF with this feature. Thus, the best dynamics and instability will be south of the area. The remnant upper trough moves through the region Saturday night. Have left some residual low-end POPS into Sunday, mainly over the Oregon Cascades. A sharp amplitude ridge develops along 130W Sunday. This feature eventually shifts over the area at the start of the extended period. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Sunday night through Friday . The operational model runs and ensembles are in good agreement early in the extended period. The upper ridge axis shifts to the coastline by Monday afternoon. The 18Z ECMWF ensemble mean 500mb height anomaly valid 12Z Mon shows 125-200 meter height anomalies values just off the coast. As such, will likely have to contend with another episode of reduced air quality beginning Monday. Another weakening frontal system is expected to move inside 130W 12Z Tue. This will force the upper ridge east of the area. A vast majority of the 18Z ECMWF ensemble members show this frontal band just offshore 18Z Tue. This front falls apart Tue afternoon and evening as it moves inland.

Much more model variability exists in the Wed-Fri time frame. The NCEP Global Ensemble Mean Relative Measure of Predictability (RMOP) depicts this uncertaintly rather well, with a very low predictaility score valid 00Z Thu. The ECMWF ensembles suggest a more zonal pattern during this time period. The GEFS does hint at a weak atmospheric river impacting the Oregon/Washington coast towards the end of next week, but QPF amounts are still rather meager with its various scenarios. Meanwhile, the EPS suggests a much wetter multi- day stretch is in store for the region towards the end of next week. Given the considerable differences among the various modeling systems, have trended the forecast towards a blend of the various scenarios for now. Weishaar

AVIATION. Fog in the southern willamette Valley had dropped ceilings and visibilites to LIFR conditions. These conditions appear likely to persist through much of the morning, before improving to VFR conditions between 19Z and 21Z. In the remaining inland valley locations, there is at least a chance for seeing an expansion of fog and low clouds early this morning through 14Z, although thickening high clouds make it an iffy proposition for the northern Willamette and lower Columbia valleys. KHIO and KSLE are the most likely to see IFR conditions to develop this morning, while KTTD and KPDX are unlikely to see such conditions develop due to dry easterly winds. The coast also is likely to remain mostly VFR due to a modest easterly flow. Rain is likely to move in from the southwest later this morning and afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to be the most likely scenario after 20Z today and tonight, although there is a chance for MVFR conditions mainly along the coast after 22Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Ceiling are expected to drop down to the lower end of VFR between this afternoon between 21Z and 01Z. There is a chance for seeing temporary MVFR conditions after 01Z with occasional rain.

MARINE. Southeast winds and seas will pick up today, most notably over the outer waters beyond 10 nm as a strong low pressure system moves east along 40N, to the west of 130W. Peak wind gusts over the outer waters can be expected to reach 20 to 30 kt today. As the low continues east towards the north California coast tonight and Saturday the low will weaken, eventually moving inland Saturday evening. This will allow winds to decrease again, likely dropping below 20 kt after midnight tonight. Windwaves and fresh swell build steep seas today as the winds increase. Expect seas to top out over the outer waters from 10 to 14 feet this afternoon before slowly subsiding again tonight and Saturday. Over the inner waters the same trends in winds and waves can be expected today through Saturday but but peak wind gusts are likely to be limited to about 20 kt, and seas to top out around 9 to 10 ft.

High pressure brings quieter wind and sea conditions Saturday through Monday. The next chances for small craft level winds and building seas comes with another front Tuesday.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley- Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County- South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 26 mi54 min 51°F7 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 42 mi78 min SSE 2.9 G 7 50°F1010 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 47 mi54 min ENE 16 G 19 50°F 1010.3 hPa (-1.7)
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 48 mi54 min E 8.9 G 14 50°F 48°F1010.4 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR35 mi58 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F45°F93%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5SE6SE6N3N3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S3CalmW3CalmSE4SE4CalmSE3SE6E4SE8S6
1 day agoSE6SE6SE4E3CalmW5W4NW3NW4CalmCalmCalmSE6SE5SE5SE8SE5SE5SE6SE3SE6CalmE7SE3
2 days agoSE8SE9SE7SE7SE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE5SE7SE7SE6NE3SE3SE7CalmSE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:12 AM PST     1.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:50 AM PST     6.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:10 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:36 PM PST     1.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:11 PM PST     4.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.91.61.82.43.34.45.466.25.95.24.23.22.41.91.92.333.84.44.74.64.1

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:17 AM PST     1.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:42 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:00 AM PST     6.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:10 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:41 PM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:21 PM PST     5.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.322.12.73.74.85.96.66.96.65.94.93.82.92.32.22.63.34.24.95.25.24.74

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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