Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dunes City, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:20PM Saturday August 15, 2020 3:55 AM PDT (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 1:22AMMoonset 5:20PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 306 Am Pdt Sat Aug 15 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am pdt this morning...
Today..N wind 10 to 15 kt except N 5 to 15 kt cape arago southward. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 1 to 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog before Sunrise. Patchy fog in the afternoon.
Tonight..W wind 5 kt...backing to S in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the evening... Becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog through the night.
Sun..SW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..S wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..NE wind 5 kt...backing to N in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..NE wind 5 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 3 ft and sw 2 ft.
Wed..NE wind 10 kt...backing to N in the afternoon and evening, then...easing to 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft in the evening, then...becoming 2 ft or less after midnight. Mixed swell W 3 ft and sw 2 ft.
PZZ300 306 Am Pdt Sat Aug 15 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Winds and seas will gradually subside today as the thermal trough gradually moves inland. A southerly wind surge is expected late today into tonight. This is expected to bring some low clouds and patchy fog to the waters. Southerly winds continue through Sunday as a disturbance moves into the area from the south. Relatively light winds and seas will then continue through Tuesday. A weak thermal trough is expected to return Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunes City, OR
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location: 43.93, -124.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 150948 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 248 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. Hot weather for the weekend as a large ridge of high pressure moves across the Pacific Northwest. Unstable air moves up out of the south late Sunday, bringing chances for thunderstorms to parts of the region Sunday afternoon and night. A little cooler air slowly seeps into the region early next week as the upper ridge moves east and a trough of low pressure approaches from the west.

SHORT TERM. Today through Monday . Even a short loop of water vapor pictures early this morning makes apparent the strengthening of the upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest, as had been advertised by the models. Surface analysis showed a thermal induced trough extending north up the Oregon coast from the ORCA low this morning. Models in general have shown the trough shifting inland in the afternoon, turning coastal winds onshore for the afternoon hours. Models continue to show very warm temperatures at 850 mb this afternoon, now topping out at 25C or even slightly higher over the interior, which makes 100F in the Willamette Valley look increasingly likely. Coastal areas are likely to warm quickly this morning, before the switch to northwest onshore breezes puts the brakes on the heating in the afternoon. All indications are that the very warm air mass persists into Monday, so expect to see some of the warmest low temperatures of the summer over inland areas Sunday morning. Especially warm lows will be found in the Cascade foothills Sunday morning thanks to the warm mid levels above a shallow low elevation surface inversion. East flow through the Gorge, depending on the activity of the Mosier fire, may bring areas of smoke west through the Gorge and into the east Portland metro area.

On Monday as the upper ridge axis shifts east, models hinting at some shortwaves lifting north in an increasingly southerly flow aloft. With the shortwaves comes the potential for some mid and upper level instability and moisture, as suggested in both the NAM and GFS 00Z operational runs. This often results in chances for thunderstorms over the Cascades, but it is not out of the question that chances for thunderstorms could extend further west given the uncertainty in the track of any upper level disturbances. For now prefer to extend a slight chance out into the Willamette Valley for Sunday night especially given the qpf produced by GFS operational run. Will however for now, hold off on pops as far west as the Coast Range as the National Blend limits pops mainly to Cascades and Cascade Foothills. With the ridge shifting east, models show an increasing onshore flow during the day Sunday, beginning on the central Oregon coast and through the central coast with a southwest Range. This will likely bring cooling to the coast while the interior begins the day with a similarly very warm air mass as compared to Saturday. The strength and timing of the onshore gradients in the afternoon suggest some cooling may spread into the south end of the Willamette Valley Sunday afternoon for a slightly cooler day overall, while in the north Willamette Valley the onshore flow is likely too little too late to provide any real relief from the heat Sunday.

A modest onshore flow continues into Monday as the warm upper ridge holds strong over the interior western U.S. Shallow marine air will hold sway along the coast, but do not expect much in the way of marine clouds to spread inland. While not as hot as the weekend, it is still likely to be rather warm Monday in the inland valleys.

LONG TERM. Monday night through Friday . Models show a ridge of high pressure over the western United States early in the coming week. The ridge is slowly weakened through the course of the week as a trough of low pressure over the east Pacific ejects a series of shortwaves into the Pacific Northwest. Through much of the week, the net result is a slow cooling down of the air mass through a lowering of heights aloft as well as a return to onshore low level flow. The onshore flow will also tend to increase marine clouds, mainly along parts of the coast. At the end of the week, will include slight chances for showers returning to the north coastal areas as suggested by the National Blend, as the main upper trough off the Pacific inches closer.

FIRE WEATHER. Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and evening, which is covered by another red flag warning that begins at 11 AM. Minimum humidities are expected to decrease below 25 percent over much of the region for critically dry conditions that will persist into the evening. These dry conditions, combined with increased instability from the thermally induced surface trough will favor rapid fire growth. Any new or existing fires will have the potential to become plume dominated. The elongated ORCA low, aka the thermal low of southwest Oregon, will sit over the Coast Range through tonight supporting mid-level haines 6 values most of today.

An upper level short wave moving up out of southwest Oregon Sunday afternoon may trigger thunderstorms, most likely over the Cascades. Models are forecasting steepening lapse rates and potentially some mid and upper level moisture with this feature to support the possibility for thunderstorms. This moisture however is not deep, and the thunderstorms will likely be elevated, suggesting any storms that develop may produce little to no rain. Any lightning could be problematic, but at this point will be limiting LAL values to 3 or less.

AVIATION. VFR the next 24 hours with mostly clear skies. A surface thermal trough along the south Oregon coast will expand north overnight and reach the south Washington coast and coastal valleys between by 15Z Sat. While the general flow is onshore, this thermal trough expansion will likely keep any coastal clouds at bay. Through the afternoon, high pressure over the area will cause winds to become easterly which will keep the area dry and very hot. With the offshore winds there is a slight chance for some of the smoke from fires in the Columbia River Gorge to migrate into the area. Likely will be patchy and should have little to no influence on visibility to KTTD or other nearby sites.

Around 03Z Sun, low pressure along the California coast will migrate northward causing winds to shift to a southerly flow. METAR note: KTTD ASOS has several missing elements and will likely not be repaired until Mon.

KPDX and APPROACHES . VFR SKC through Sat evening. East wind gusts 15-20 kt develop at the west end of the Columbia Gorge Sat morning, but weaken by early evening. Very hot conditions with temps near 100 degrees expected Sat afternoon. There is a very slight chance for some smoke to filter in near the terminal due to nearby fires. However, confidence is very low and even if it does move into the area, should have little impact on vis. Decided to leave out of the TAF. -Muessle/Weishaar

MARINE. High pressure remains anchored over the area with a thermally induced low pressure trough along the waters stretching from California to southern Washington. This thermal trough is the main reason for the gusty northerly winds that have occurred over the last several hours. Small craft winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt are likely over all of the waters through Sat afternoon. The inner waters are expected to dissipate first, followed by the central outer waters, and finally the northern waters Sat night. During the morning hours today can expect periods of lulled winds, reaching their peak gusts in the afternoon. Seas during this time are expected to be northwesterly at 4 to 6 ft with localized seas up to 8 ft south of Newport.

Late Sat/early Sun, weak low pressure, stemming from the eastern Pacific, will advance northward causing a southerly wind shift. The southerly winds with gusts up to 15 kt will persist through Mon. As high pressure once again builds across the Pacific NW on Tue, winds will become northerly. Northwesterly seas during this time will likely remain around 4 to 6 ft with a 10 second period. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Columbia River Gorge-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley-Upper Hood River Valley-Western Columbia River Gorge.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Central Oregon Cascade Foothills-Mt. Hood National Forest West of Cascade Crest-North Oregon Cascade Foothills-Willamette National Forest-Willamette Valley.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Cascades in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascades.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for Central Oregon Coast-East Slopes of the Central Oregon Coast Range-North Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast Range.

WA . Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Central Columbia River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area- Western Columbia River Gorge.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Clark County Lowlands-Eastern Gifford Pinchot National Forest Mt Adams Ranger District-Extreme South Washington Cascades and Foothills.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM PDT Sunday for I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Cascades.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for East Willapa Hills-South Washington Coast and West Willapa Hills.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT today for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.

Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 26 mi29 min 51°F6 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 42 mi79 min SW 1 G 1.9 62°F1013.3 hPa
SNTO3 46 mi85 min Calm 49°F 1014 hPa48°F
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 47 mi55 min N 5.1 G 6 52°F
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 48 mi55 min N 1 G 1 55°F 54°F1014.3 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR35 mi59 minW 35.00 miFog/Mist51°F50°F96%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:23 AM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:03 PM PDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM PDT     2.85 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:19 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:41 PM PDT     6.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.142.81.60.70.20.30.91.82.93.94.54.84.64.13.532.93.23.94.85.86.46.5

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:28 AM PDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:13 AM PDT     5.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:54 PM PDT     3.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:20 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:51 PM PDT     7.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.73.31.90.90.30.30.91.93.14.255.35.24.74.13.63.43.74.45.46.47.17.36.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.