Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 2:08 AM   Moonset 11:32 AM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 259 Am Pdt Wed May 1 2024
Today - NE wind 5 kt - .rising to 5 to 10 kt in the morning, then - .becoming ne 5 to 10 kt early in the afternoon - .backing to N late afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds early in the morning - .becoming less than 2 ft. NW swell 8 ft at 11 seconds - . Subsiding to 5 ft at 10 seconds. SWell and sw 1 ft in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind 5 kt - .backing to W late in the evening, then - .backing to S 10 to 15 kt after midnight - . Rising to 20 to 25 kt early in the morning. Wind waves less than 2 ft - .becoming W 3 ft at 3 seconds after midnight. SWell W 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.Thu - SW wind 15 to 20 kt - .veering to W 10 kt in the morning, then - .veering to nw early in the afternoon - .backing to W late in the afternoon. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 5 to 6 ft at 8 seconds. Showers likely. Thu night - SW wind 5 kt - .backing to S after midnight. Wind waves W 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 8 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Fri - S wind 5 to 15 kt - .rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft - .becoming sw 4 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds - . Building to sw 5 to 6 ft at 7 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.Fri night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt - .veering to W after midnight. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 7 seconds. Rain.Sat - NW wind 10 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Sun - W wind 10 kt - .backing to sw. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 7 ft at 11 seconds.

PZZ300 259 Am Pdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Weak high pressure will move in today with moderate north winds, highest south of cape blanco. Then, a weak front will move through the waters tonight into Thursday. This will result in a break with calmer conditions Thursday night into early Friday, then the active pattern resumes with hazardous conditions for small craft possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

FXUS66 KPQR 011020 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 320 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mostly dry conditions prevail today before another system arrives this evening into Thursday morning. This will bring another round of rain and mountain snow above 4000 ft.
Heaviest snowfall will be above 5500 ft. A more robust system arrives Friday, with forecast precipitation around 0.75-1.5 inch across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Snow levels Friday will rise above 6500 ft. Rivers still have a less than 5% chance of reaching action stage. Wet, unsettled weather likely continues over the weekend through at least early next week.

SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday night...Radar imagery as of 3 AM PDT show a few lingering showers over the Cascades. Otherwise, most places look dry with some low to mid-level cloud cover.
Expect to see some cloud breaks and clearing this morning, which would support radiational cooling and potential frost development.
The current Frost Advisory for the North Oregon Coast Range, North Oregon Coast Range Lowlands, Willapa Hills, Tualatin Valley, and West Central Willamette Valley remains in effect through 8 AM this morning. These places may also see some patchy fog development as well (20% chance). The highest chances (25-45%) for frost will be in the Coast Range and Willapa Hills.
Uncertainty remains for frost development in the Willamette Valley since there could be stratus backbuilding against the Cascades. In addition, dew points in the upper 30s don't look promising for frost.

Conditions will be mostly dry today before the next system arrives this evening. We'll have some relatively warmer high temperatures today compared to what we've experienced the last couple days. Afternoon highs are forecast in the low 50s along the coast, upper 50s/low 60s for inland valleys, and 40s for higher terrain.

The next low pressure system will arrive Wednesday evening to Thursday morning, bringing another round of precipitation.
Expect lowland rain showers and Cascade snow showers, with snow levels around 4000-4500 ft. The bulk of the snow will be above the Cascade passes. 24 hr snow amounts ending 5 PM Thursday are forecast around 2-5 inches above 4000 ft, except up to 10 inches above 5500 ft. Have decided not to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades considering that the heaviest snowfall for this system will be above the passes and forecast snow amounts look less than what we've seen with the previous systems earlier this week. Current NBM guidance suggests a less than 5% chance that the Cascade passes see 24 hr snowfall greater than 5 inches ending 5 PM Thursday.

Thursday afternoon to late Thursday night, conditions will dry up briefly before another system approaches the Pacific Northwest on Friday. -Alviz

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...The long term forecast is characterized by wet, unsettled weather as a series of systems pushes through the Pacific Northwest. WPC cluster analyses are in agreement of another trough pushing through the region on Friday. This looks like a stronger system with abundant moisture as GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members show IVT values peaking between 250-500 kg/ms on Friday.

The latest NBM guidance suggests a 25-45% chance that 24 hr QPF ending 11 AM Saturday exceeds 2 inches for the Coast Range and Cascades. For inland valleys, this probability is less than 5%.
For now, our current 24 hr QPF forecast ending 11 AM Saturday calls for 0.75-1 inch for inland valleys and 1-1.5 inch for the coast, Coast Range, and Cascades. This will also be a relatively warmer system, so snow levels during this time are forecast well above the Cascade passes (around 6500-7000 ft).

Over the weekend (Sat-Sun), WPC clusters are in agreement that this robust upper level trough will continue to progress southeast toward Northern California and the Great Basin. As it does, additional precipitation will continue through the weekend. Chances for 48 hr QPF exceeding 1 inch ending 5 AM Monday are around 40-60% for the Coast Range and Cascades, and 5-10% for inland valleys.

Currently, HEFS guidance shows all rivers across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington having a less than 5% chance of reaching action stage. However, we will still continue to monitor the potential for hydro impacts to our rivers. Flood control reservoirs are now full for summer water supply, so the Willamette River can be more susceptible to flooding now. Those with river interests should continue to monitor the forecast over the next few days.

WPC cluster analyses are in agreement of additional troughing over the Pacific Northwest Monday to Tuesday. There still remains some uncertainty with how strong the troughing will be, but the majority of ensemble members suggests we'll maintain a wet pattern through at least early next week. Don't put your rain jacket or rain boots away just yet! -Alviz

AVIATION
Post frontal showers winding down and mainly confined to the Cascades as of 09Z with VFR conditions across the area.
Satellite shows clouds decreasing over the coast and coast range, while valley cigs remain around 5000-6000 ft. HRRR guidance shows less cloud cover than current satellite, but HRRR forecast clouds to decrease over the next several hours. This could bring enough radiational cooling for fog or low stratus.
HRRR shows 20-50% chance for low MVFR to IFR conditions in the valley 12-17Z Wed. Next front arrives tonight with rain reaching the coast by evening and to interior valley late in the evening with MVFR to IFR reaching the coast 05-07Z Thu, and MVFR inland 09-11Z Thu.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
There is no estimated time of full repair and restoration for this location.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Conditions are currently VFR, but two possibilities exist that could deteriorate conditions this morning. Chances are around 20% for dense fog to form 12Z-17z Wed that could potentially reduce visibilities down to LIFR thresholds. However there is a 60-80% chance for for VFR and 60% chance for MVFR. /mh

MARINE
Active weather pattern continues through the week as Pacific front move through the waters about once a day, bringing periods of Small Craft Advisory winds. The next front arrives tonight and is expected to bring southerly winds gusts to 25 kt, primarily over PZZ271 and 272. The next front for Friday looks a little stronger with gusts 20 to 30 kt across most of the zones.
A weaker front follows on Saturday. Seas around 9 ft with a period around 11 seconds early this morning. Seas will subside to around 4 to 6 ft later today through Friday, then expected inch up to near 8 ft late in the weekend.
/mh

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for ORZ104-106-109- 114.

WA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for WAZ203.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ271-272.

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Florence
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:58 AM PDT     2.95 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:08 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:27 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM PDT     5.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:31 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:05 PM PDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:06 PM PDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon, Tide feet

Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:03 AM PDT     3.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:27 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 05:36 AM PDT     6.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:31 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:10 PM PDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:16 PM PDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon, Tide feet

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