Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Henderson, NY
May 3, 2024 8:29 PM EDT (00:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:47 AM Moonset 1:48 PM |
LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1032 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 040004 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 804 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weakening cold front will bring some showers to parts of the region this evening into tonight. Shower chances steadily decrease later tonight into Saturday with just scattered showers remaining, and some dry time built in. Another slow moving cold front will pass across the area Saturday night through Sunday bringing the next round of more widespread showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure then returns Monday, allowing for a dry start to the new work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A weakening occluded front will slowly work across far western New York this evening into tonight. This boundary will bring some light rain showers to the area, with no more than a few hundredths at best over any given location. As this front progresses east it will begin to fall apart, but there will still be some showers possible for some locales (east of Lake Ontario) overnight
Otherwise
it will be mild with lows mainly in the 50s.
With very little forcing in place for Saturday, expecting just scattered showers, especially during the morning hours with a good deal of dry time built in through the day. Next stronger cold front will approach from the west late Saturday, while next wave moves north from the Ohio Valley. This will help to displace the upper level ridge east over New England, thus opening the door for the next surge of moisture and lift to move over the area with chances for showers increasing from south to north late in the day into the evening. Highs will be mainly in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The mid-level ridge axis over the forecast area through Saturday afternoon will push east toward New England Saturday night. In its wake, a shortwave trough will track northeast out of the OH/TN Valleys toward WNY. As the trough approaches, shower coverage will increase significantly from south to north through the later portion of Saturday evening and overnight. An influx of moisture with the trough will also help showers expand over the region. There still remains some uncertainty with track of shortwave trough and moisture over the forecast area with some models placing the higher rainfall amounts over WNY and other guidance more to the east toward CNY.
An incoming cold front on Sunday morning will increase forcing over the area, prolonging and expanding the potential for showers through at least the afternoon hours. Still uncertainty with how quickly the cold front tracks through the region among guidance as well with some guidance prolonging the showers through most of the day and into the evening on Sunday. Overall though the later portion of Saturday evening through at least the early afternoon on Sunday looks to be soggy for most of the forecast area. The more organized showers on Sunday should be mainly across the eastern third of the area by the late afternoon, with some lingering/scattered showers across the rest of the area.
With the large scale trough just north of the region still, along with lingering synoptic moisture, scattered showers will linger through most of Sunday night. Drier air moving into the area along a zonal flow will start to scatter out any remaining showers from west to east through the late night.
Rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch to half an inch is expected, with some higher amounts possible as well. Current thinking is the higher qpf amounts will be along the south shore of Lake Ontario east to the north country. Still plenty of uncertainty with higher qpf placement among guidance still.
A ridge building into the region will result in drier weather for Monday through Monday night across the entire area. Clearing skies on Monday will result in increasing sunshine from northwest to southeast through the day. Clouds will linger the longest near the NY/PA line as a disturbance tracks south of the area.
Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low 50s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 60s for the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. For Monday, temperatures warm to the mid 60s to mid 70s from the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A sprawling mid and upper level low will start out this period over the northern Rockies and Upper Plains states on Tuesday...then will slowly drift eastward across the northern half of the CONUS through the remainder of the work week
This being said
the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable differences in the strength and rate of eastward progression of this low...and consequently also in the strength/timing of a number of shortwave impulses ejecting eastward from this system and across our region.
With the above in mind...forecast confidence in associated precipitation potential/timing remains fairly low particularly from about Wednesday onward...and as such have undercut blended guidance a bit in an attempt to better reflect this uncertainty. In general this system should bring more unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during the middle and latter portions of next week...though likely also with some drier periods interspersed.
As for temperatures...these will continue to average some 5-10 degrees above normal through this period.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A weak occluded front will work across the region this evening bringing lowering VFR Cigs and showers across far western terminals.
Tonight...flight conditions will slowly deteriorate with MVFR CIGS developing across the Southern Tier (KJHW), then advancing northward across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG). Mainly VFR conditions expected to continue from the Genesee Valley eastward to include KROC and KART.
Saturday...some scattered light showers expected with MVFR CIGS continuing across the Southern Tier (KJHW). KBUF/KIAG should improve to VFR by late morning/midday, with VFR flight conditions expected to continue from KROC east.
Outlook...
Saturday night and Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
MARINE
Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected to persist into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria, especially with an offshore flow developing tonight then persisting through the weekend, keeping the highest waves over Canadian waters for Saturday and Sunday. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Sunday. High pressure will build across the area for the start of the new work week providing mainly gentle breezes with no more than some light chop expected through Tuesday.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 804 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weakening cold front will bring some showers to parts of the region this evening into tonight. Shower chances steadily decrease later tonight into Saturday with just scattered showers remaining, and some dry time built in. Another slow moving cold front will pass across the area Saturday night through Sunday bringing the next round of more widespread showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure then returns Monday, allowing for a dry start to the new work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A weakening occluded front will slowly work across far western New York this evening into tonight. This boundary will bring some light rain showers to the area, with no more than a few hundredths at best over any given location. As this front progresses east it will begin to fall apart, but there will still be some showers possible for some locales (east of Lake Ontario) overnight
Otherwise
it will be mild with lows mainly in the 50s.
With very little forcing in place for Saturday, expecting just scattered showers, especially during the morning hours with a good deal of dry time built in through the day. Next stronger cold front will approach from the west late Saturday, while next wave moves north from the Ohio Valley. This will help to displace the upper level ridge east over New England, thus opening the door for the next surge of moisture and lift to move over the area with chances for showers increasing from south to north late in the day into the evening. Highs will be mainly in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The mid-level ridge axis over the forecast area through Saturday afternoon will push east toward New England Saturday night. In its wake, a shortwave trough will track northeast out of the OH/TN Valleys toward WNY. As the trough approaches, shower coverage will increase significantly from south to north through the later portion of Saturday evening and overnight. An influx of moisture with the trough will also help showers expand over the region. There still remains some uncertainty with track of shortwave trough and moisture over the forecast area with some models placing the higher rainfall amounts over WNY and other guidance more to the east toward CNY.
An incoming cold front on Sunday morning will increase forcing over the area, prolonging and expanding the potential for showers through at least the afternoon hours. Still uncertainty with how quickly the cold front tracks through the region among guidance as well with some guidance prolonging the showers through most of the day and into the evening on Sunday. Overall though the later portion of Saturday evening through at least the early afternoon on Sunday looks to be soggy for most of the forecast area. The more organized showers on Sunday should be mainly across the eastern third of the area by the late afternoon, with some lingering/scattered showers across the rest of the area.
With the large scale trough just north of the region still, along with lingering synoptic moisture, scattered showers will linger through most of Sunday night. Drier air moving into the area along a zonal flow will start to scatter out any remaining showers from west to east through the late night.
Rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch to half an inch is expected, with some higher amounts possible as well. Current thinking is the higher qpf amounts will be along the south shore of Lake Ontario east to the north country. Still plenty of uncertainty with higher qpf placement among guidance still.
A ridge building into the region will result in drier weather for Monday through Monday night across the entire area. Clearing skies on Monday will result in increasing sunshine from northwest to southeast through the day. Clouds will linger the longest near the NY/PA line as a disturbance tracks south of the area.
Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low 50s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 60s for the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. For Monday, temperatures warm to the mid 60s to mid 70s from the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A sprawling mid and upper level low will start out this period over the northern Rockies and Upper Plains states on Tuesday...then will slowly drift eastward across the northern half of the CONUS through the remainder of the work week
This being said
the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable differences in the strength and rate of eastward progression of this low...and consequently also in the strength/timing of a number of shortwave impulses ejecting eastward from this system and across our region.
With the above in mind...forecast confidence in associated precipitation potential/timing remains fairly low particularly from about Wednesday onward...and as such have undercut blended guidance a bit in an attempt to better reflect this uncertainty. In general this system should bring more unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during the middle and latter portions of next week...though likely also with some drier periods interspersed.
As for temperatures...these will continue to average some 5-10 degrees above normal through this period.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A weak occluded front will work across the region this evening bringing lowering VFR Cigs and showers across far western terminals.
Tonight...flight conditions will slowly deteriorate with MVFR CIGS developing across the Southern Tier (KJHW), then advancing northward across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG). Mainly VFR conditions expected to continue from the Genesee Valley eastward to include KROC and KART.
Saturday...some scattered light showers expected with MVFR CIGS continuing across the Southern Tier (KJHW). KBUF/KIAG should improve to VFR by late morning/midday, with VFR flight conditions expected to continue from KROC east.
Outlook...
Saturday night and Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
MARINE
Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected to persist into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria, especially with an offshore flow developing tonight then persisting through the weekend, keeping the highest waves over Canadian waters for Saturday and Sunday. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Sunday. High pressure will build across the area for the start of the new work week providing mainly gentle breezes with no more than some light chop expected through Tuesday.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY | 32 mi | 72 min | 47°F | 30.06 | ||||
| 45215 | 33 mi | 64 min | 52°F | 47°F | 1 ft | |||
| 45135 - Prince Edward Pt | 34 mi | 90 min | NNE 7.8G | 52°F | 43°F | 0 ft | 30.04 | |
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 35 mi | 72 min | ENE 5.1G | 62°F | 29.99 | 49°F | ||
| OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY | 67 mi | 72 min | 61°F | 30.06 | ||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 85 mi | 90 min | E 12G | 55°F | 30.04 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KART WATERTOWN INTL,NY | 13 sm | 33 min | NNE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 54°F | 64% | 30.04 |
Montague, NY,
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