Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 080514 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 114 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Heat and humidity will build through the rest of the week, peaking on Thursday and Friday. The majority of the time will be dry, although a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening mainly inland from the lakes. A weak cold front will arrive Saturday and bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms, and will also bring somewhat cooler temperatures to the region by Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Flat ridging to our west will continue to pump uncomfortably warm and increasingly humid air into the region. Hot across the lake plains with heat indices Wednesday in the mid to upper 90s.

Radar imagery showing an area of showers and storms over eastern Ontario. These may cross the Saint Lawrence valley just before daybreak. A few more isolated showers just north of Long Point may approach the Niagara Frontier toward daybreak. Otherwise it will be dry and mainly clear to partly cloudy overnight.

On Wednesday, there will be slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms with an elevated frontal passage. Timing of these will be earlier than last couple days though, occurring later morning into mid afternoon before tapering off by late afternoon. Greatest coverage of the rain will occur from the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes to the North Country.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. . Heat and Humidity Peaks Thursday and Friday .

A semblance of a Rex block over the eastern U.S. will continue to support H85 temps that will hover near 20c. This will translate into daily highs Thursday and Friday in the 90s across the lake plains where high humidity will boost the apparent temps to between 95 and 100. Heat Advisories will remain in effect across the Lake Plains and into the Finger Lakes region.

Meanwhile . little if any rainfall anticipated. Meager pops highest on Friday. ECMWF guidance accepted.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A mid-level trough will slowly approach the region Saturday before gradually weakening or moving off to the northeast through early next week. The best chance for rain will be Saturday when the axis of the mid-level and surface trough enter western New York. However most model guidance keeps deeper/tropical moisture to our east with this system tracking into New England. So while this system is likely to provide some drought relief, it will be far from a drought- buster with amounts in the quarter inch ballpark.

After this, weak troughing aloft will support mainly scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday.

Temperatures will be notably cooler than this week, but still near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A few showers and thunderstorms will cross the Saint Lawrence Valley mainly north of KART early this morning with local/brief MVFR to IFR.

A weak trough will slowly cross the region this morning through mid afternoon and produce a few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. The best coverage will be from the western Finger Lakes to the southern Tug Hill region during the early to mid afternoon as the trough encounters increasing diurnal instability. Any shower or thunderstorm may produce brief/local MVFR to IFR conditions, otherwise VFR will prevail today.

Tonight will be mainly dry with a few patches of mid/high clouds. VFR will prevail in most areas. River valley fog will likely develop overnight across the western Southern Tier with local IFR.

Outlook .

Thursday through Friday . Mainly VFR. Widely scattered showers and storms each afternoon mainly inland from the lakes with local/brief flight restrictions. Late night/early morning Southern Tier Valley fog with local IFR. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Sunday . Mainly VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. Relatively light winds will continue on Lakes Erie and Ontario through the rest of the week with a weak pressure gradient in place. Winds will generally be under 12 knots and waves under 2 feet. Strong differential heating will allow for local lake breezes to develop most afternoons with onshore wind developing.

CLIMATE. There will be an extended period of hot weather which has the potential to break some records. Some daily records will be within reach over the next several days. Also, the longest streak of 90-degree days in Buffalo may be in jeopardy. Buffalo has already exceeded 90 today, making it 5 days and counting. Here are the current records .

Buffalo

Tuesday - 94 (1988 and 2020) Wednesday - 96 (1988) Thursday - 92 (1988) Friday - 95 (1988)

Rochester

Tuesday - 97 (1988) Wednesday - 100 (1936) Thursday - 102 (1936) Friday - 102 (1936)

Watertown

Tuesday - 99 (2008) Wednesday - 93 (1955) Thursday - 92 (1955) Friday - 92 (2007)

Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Buffalo (Ending Date) 1) 7/10/1988 - 7 2) 7/1/1963 - 5 3) 8/14/1947 - 5 4) 7/7/2020 (ongoing) - 5

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-010-011-013- 014. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA/RSH SHORT TERM . RSH LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock CLIMATE . Apffel/JLA/RSH

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY	32 mi	46 min					1012.4 hPa
45135 - Prince Edward Pt	34 mi	64 min	SSW 12 G 12	75°F	73°F	2 ft	1012.3 hPa (+0.1)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	35 mi	46 min	S 8.9 G 12	76°F			1013.1 hPa	67°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY	67 mi	46 min		74°F	65°F		1012.5 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	85 mi	64 min	SW 9.9 G 15	79°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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SE8 G11

SE7

SE8 G12

SE11 G15

SE8 G13

SE11 G17

SE13 G18

S10 G15

SE7 G13

S6 G11

N4

N5 G8

NE6 G9

NE5 G9

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SE8 G12

S11 G15

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S12 G18

S8 G13

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1 day ago

SE3

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N8 G11

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NE4 G7

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E2 G5

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SE7 G11

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2 days ago

S7

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S5 G8

S6 G9

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W12

W10 G13

W10 G13

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W6

W7 G11

W11 G15

W9 G12

W9 G12

W5 G8

W6

NW3 G7

SW2

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S1

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S5

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY	13 mi	68 min	S 7	10.00 mi	Fair	77°F	66°F	69%	1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)

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NE3

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5

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SW9 G15

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W13 G18

W12

W8

SW8 G17

6 G14

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SW9 G15

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1 day ago

E3

Calm

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N9

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NW4

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Calm

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2 days ago

E4

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W9 G17

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SW6

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Calm

Calm

E3

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E3

Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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