Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday July 29, 2021 11:56 AM EDT (15:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:40PMMoonset 10:47AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 648 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early this afternoon. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:202107291530;;637781 FZUS51 KBUF 291048 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 648 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-291530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson, NY
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location: 43.93, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 291355 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 955 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front passage will bring showers and thunderstorms today, with some showers possible through Friday morning. Cooler weather will prevail Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds back across the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Impressive mid level shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will cross the region today. Steady rain on the northern fringe of a convective complex has spread across Western New York late this morning. This will bring a soaking rainfall with some embedded thunderstorms to the Niagara Frontier and Buffalo metro area through around noon. This area should weaken by early afternoon as it slides east of Rochester. Of more concern, is the southern flank of this system which will move across eastern Lake Erie and into the Western Southern Tier late this morning. This convection has the potential to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Updated the zones and HWO to reflect this risk.

Second shot of convection should evolve during the afternoon and this evening as surface cold front crosses the region. Atmosphere will may have enough time to recover for the morning activity with at least moderate instability developing. Shear profiles will be sufficient for at least some potential for some stronger thunderstorms, mainly along the western Southern Tier where a marginal risk is outlooked by SPC. North of this, may remain stabilized from the initial round of rain and showers.

There may be a few lingering showers tonight, especially south of the lakes where some upslope/lake enhancement may develop within incoming colder airmass.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Stagnant upper air pattern throughout the short term period will place a longwave trough over the Northeastern United States, supporting unseasonably cooler weather throughout the entirety of the period.

Looking further into the details, the shortwave trough axis and corresponding surface low that crossed the region the day and night prior, will be exiting the Northeastern United States Friday morning. This will place the region under general northwesterly flow, which will advect in much cooler air into the region causing temperatures at 850mb to drop into +7-9C range by Friday morning. Left over moisture along with the cooler temperatures will support lake enhanced showers southeast of both lakes Friday morning. Meanwhile, surface high pressure to the west over the western Great Lakes will begin to slide southeast, influencing the region with its subsidence and dry air. That said, the dry air filtering across the region Friday will cause lake enhanced rain shower activity to subside. Additionally, the dry air will promote sunny skies Friday, though northwesterly flow along with cold air advection will keep temperatures at bay, with highs warming up into the mid to upper 60s.

High pressure will then slide southeast over the Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday night, which will continue to promote northwesterly winds across the region. Some lake effect clouds may develop southeast of both lakes overnight, though showers are not expected as low inversion heights should prevent lake effect rain showers. Otherwise, temperatures Friday night will fall into the mid 40s across the higher terrain in the interior Southern Tier and North Country, with a range of 50s along the Lake Plains, and some low 60s along the immediate lake shores.

High pressure will then shift east-southeast across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday, which will maintain dry weather through the majority of the day on Saturday. Meanwhile, the next shortwave will begin to rotate through the upper level trough aloft Saturday morning, initially placing its associated surface low and fronts across the Upper Great Lakes. This new system will then slide southeast across the Central Great Lakes Saturday, reaching WNY by Saturday evening. As both the shortwave trough and surface low approach the region Saturday night, expect chances for showers to increase from northwest to southeast. An abundance of cloud cover Saturday night will modulate temperatures, promoting lows ranging in the 50s, and a few low 60s along the immediate lakeshores.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Longwave trough aloft over the Northeastern United States will continue to promote unseasonably cooler temperatures throughout the long term period with highs ending the weekend and starting the new work week in the upper 60s and low 70s. Slight warming by the end of the period will create highs in the mid to upper 70s, by mid week.

Otherwise, with the longwave pattern overhead a couple of shortwaves will pass through during the weekend and first half of the work week. The first shortwave (previously mentioned in the short term discussion) will pass its surface low and attendant cold front across the region Sunday ahead of the shortwave trough axis. This will promote likely PoPs Sunday. Then chances for showers continue Sunday night as the shortwave trough axis crosses overhead of the area.

Monday and Tuesday, surface high pressure and ridging aloft will promote a period of dry weather. Meanwhile, the next shortwave and surface low will pass across the Hudson Bay Monday night. As both features travel east, the associate surface cold front will travel east across Ontario and the Central Great Lakes Tuesday, before crossing the area Wednesday. This will allow for chances for showers to return Wednesday.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Showers and embedded thunderstorms move across WNY through around 16Z impacting KBUF/KIAG/KJHW. Heavy rain and gusty winds are possible at KJHW. Mainly VFR outside of MVFR/IFR in storms.

This activity will likely end for a time early this afternoon, before another round of showers and thunderstorms developing later this afternoon into this evening as a cold front moves through with MVFR cigs. After midnight tonight, the convection will wind down with only scattered showers, but cigs remaining MVFR or lower.

Outlook .

Friday . MVFR/VFR. A chance of showers with lingering clouds south of the lakes. Saturday . VFR. Sunday . MVFR. Showers likely. Monday . VFR.

MARINE. A general light southerly flow this morning will freshen from the southwest this afternoon with a chop developing on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, especially offshore into international waters. A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes early tonight. Winds will increase from the north and northwest tonight into Friday and may near 20 knots. Small Craft Advisories will be needed later tonight into the Friday time frame as a broader onshore flow develops especially on Lake Ontario.

High pressure moving in will bring somewhat lighter winds Friday night and Saturday, but choppy conditions will likely continue especially on Lake Ontario.

Colder air coming across the lakes pushing delta Ts to near 18C Friday and Friday night, but relatively low equilibrium level and less than ideal gradient flow suggest a very low, but non-zero risk for waterspouts during that time period.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel/TMA SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Apffel/TMA MARINE . TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 32 mi56 min 69°F1012 hPa (-1.0)
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 34 mi56 min SSE 12 G 19 67°F 70°F3 ft1011.2 hPa (-1.0)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 35 mi56 min SE 8 G 13 65°F 1010.9 hPa (-2.0)59°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 67 mi56 min 63°F 68°F1012.7 hPa (+0.0)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi56 min S 9.9 G 14 67°F 1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY13 mi60 minE 510.00 miOvercast66°F59°F78%1011.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE56NE6N10N7NW3N5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3SE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE5CalmE5
1 day agoW7NE7E7NE8N6NE4N6N6N8N8NE7NE3NE3NE3NE3CalmNE4CalmCalmN4NE5NE543
2 days agoSW10SW7SW12SW11SW10
G18
SW12SW10SW9NE14E54S3CalmCalmSE3E4E3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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