Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 240839 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 339 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. Isolated lake effect snow showers continue this morning. High pressure will build into the eastern Great lakes today, ending the lake effect snow. Low pressure will pass just to the south of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing a chance of widespread accumulating snow to most of the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Surface high pressure is centered over southern Ontario and western Lake Erie early this morning. A cold, northwest flow continues over the eastern Great Lakes and lake effect streamers have been slow to quit across western NY this morning. The surface high will track overhead this morning and will put an end to snow showers. Very cold across the North Country with temperatures -10 to 0F with a few NYSMesonet stations reaching the minus teens this morning.

An elevated warm front will approach the region this afternoon. Widespread snow across the upper Mid-West this morning will quickly diminish as it interacts with a mid-level ridge and a dry airmass across the eastern Great Lakes. Model guidance shows that a band of snow may form ahead of the warm front from central Lake Erie to northwest Pennsylvania that may clip the western Southern Tier this afternoon. Some light snow is possible. Elsewhere, dry and cold today with mid level clouds increasing from west to east. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 20s across western NY to the teens east of Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure will move across the region tonight and Monday. Mid-level clouds from the decaying Mid-Western system will track across the region while eroding overnight. This will give the opportunity for temperatures to fall rapidly east of Lake Ontario again. Low temperatures will range from the low to mid teens across western NY to below zero well inland of Lake Ontario. Clouds move back into the region by Monday afternoon as the next system approaches. Highs will climb into the upper 20s to low 30s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A weak 1005 mb surface low will move across Ohio Monday night and into Pennsylvania on Tuesday before weakening further Tuesday night. This will bring a general light to moderate snowfall to areas south of Lake Ontario. The main forcing will be from mid-level warm air advection which be strongest across southern portions of the cwa late Monday night into Tuesday. There will be minimal lake enhancement (850 mb temps -9c) and upslope enhancement south of the lakes later in the event when winds shift to the northeast behind the surface low. This track will support snow across most (if not all) of our region with forecast soundings suggesting all snow except across the Western Southern Tier where some sleet is possible. Overall improving model agreement with the 00Z model guidance provides increasing forecast confidence.

Light snow will spread into most the region late Monday night with the steadiest snowfall expected around daybreak Tuesday. Snow will taper off to lake/upslope enhanced snow showers south of the lakes Tuesday night Ballpark storm total snowfall amounts.

Allegany/Livingston/Ontario counties: 3-5" Elsewhere south of Lake Ontario: 2-4" East of Lake Ontario: Less than 2"

Temperatures will remain below freezing during the period with highs on Tuesday ranging from the mid 20s to around 30.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Strong high pressure will ridge from central Canada into Ontario province Wednesday and Wednesday night, providing cool but generally dry weather for the area. A northeast flow may produce some light lake enhanced snow showers south of Lake Ontario, but these will be limited by the dry airmass and from 850mb temperatures marginally cold enough to support lake enhanced snow (around -10c).

Low pressure supported by a vigourous shortwave will pass by well to our south on Thursday and rapidly intensify off the mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge will gradually build across the eastern Great Lakes through Friday night. This will maintain seasonably cold (but dry) weather across the area. A warm front will approach the region Saturday, but 00Z model guidance is slower than previous runs. This should keep the area dry through Saturday. Also lowered temperatures several degrees for Friday night (with good radiational cooling) and Saturday (slower warm front timing).

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Northwest flow continues over the eastern Great Lakes. Low stratus with isolated snow showers will continue across western NY through the morning. Periods of MVFR CIGS possible, mainly at KJHW with VFR conditions elsewhere. Lake clouds will persist today with MVFR CIGS lingering across western NY.

Mid-level clouds will increase today and tonight ahead of a decaying Mid-Western system. Dry and VFR expected through tonight.

Outlook .

Monday . Mainly VFR. Tuesday . Snow developing with IFR, especially south of Lake Ontario. Wednesday . Scattered snow showers with local IFR and MVFR CIGS in the morning, improving to VFR. Thursday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Moderate northwesterlies will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario through this morning. High pressure will then build into the eastern Great Lakes today, allowing winds and waves to subside. Light winds will last through Monday.

Low pressure will then move from the Ohio Valley Monday night eastward across Pennsylvania Tuesday and Tuesday night, with high pressure remaining to the north of the Great Lakes. This will allow for a period of stronger ENE winds on Lakes Erie and Ontario with another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ043- 044. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/HSK NEAR TERM . HSK SHORT TERM . Apffel LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . HSK MARINE . Hitchcock/HSK

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY	32 mi	58 min			36°F		1025.9 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	35 mi	58 min	NNW 15 G 21	16°F			1026.3 hPa	8°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY	67 mi	58 min		6°F			1025.1 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	85 mi	28 min	N 15 G 18	22°F			1028.1 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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W17 G28

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SE12 G18

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W24 G29

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SW10 G14

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W15 G19

SW16 G23

W25 G34

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY	13 mi	32 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	-7°F	-12°F	79%	1027.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station

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