Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 071039 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 539 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. Narrow bands of lake effect snow will continue this morning southeast of Lake Ontario with some minor additional accumulations. Otherwise scattered flurries and light snow showers this morning will end as high pressure builds into the area. Dry weather will then continue through Sunday with increasing southerly winds allowing temperatures to warm to above average by afternoon. The warmer weather will continue through Monday, with an approaching low pressure producing occasional rain showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Radar imagery showing a rather disorganized area of lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario early this morning, from northern and eastern Monroe County eastward to Oswego County. The upstream connection to Georgian Bay has not fully developed, which will likely keep this activity disorganized this morning. This area may see 1-2 inches of accumulation this morning in the most persistent bands. Another area of light snow not attributable to the lake has blossomed east of Lake Ontario in response to a passing shortwave and low level convergence. This area may see a dusting to an inch of accumulation before the snow fades away by mid morning. For the rest of the area, flurries and scattered light snow showers will continue through early to mid morning with nothing more than a light dusting.

High pressure will then build east across the eastern Great Lakes from late morning through the afternoon. Associated drier air, lowering inversion heights, and a disruption of low level flow will force lake effect to come to an end. The last of the snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario should end by mid afternoon. Lake effect clouds will be prevalent this morning, with a few breaks of sun developing this afternoon. Highs will be around 30 in most areas, and mid 20s east of Lake Ontario.

High pressure will drift to the southern New England coast tonight. Increasing warm advection in the wake of the departing high will bring an increase in high clouds overnight. Lows will occur during the mid to late evening, with 20s across Western NY and teens from the Genesee Valley eastward, and even some single digits east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will then rise overnight as a southerly breeze and warm advection increase.

High pressure will continue to move east and off the New England coast Sunday. Ongoing warm advection will continue to support thickening mid/high clouds, but any rain showers associated with the next system will remain well to our northwest through early evening with dry conditions prevailing in the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will warm to above average, with highs in the mid 40s across Western NY and mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Dry conditions likely continue into the early part of Sunday night, before a narrow ribbon of moisture starts to work into the area ahead of a nearly stationary frontal boundary parked across the upper Great Lakes into southern Quebec. While the frontal boundary is expected to move little through Sunday night, precipitation chances will gradually increase with efficient transport of moisture aided by a 40+ knot low level jet over the Great Lakes. Series of shortwaves advancing through the mean trough should be more than sufficient to generate some showers across the area as we move through Sunday night. While most locations will see precipitation in the liquid form, there might be some snow east of Lake Ontario. This is where deeper colder air mass will reside initially at the start of the precipitation. There, a few tenths of an inch of snow will be possible before the transition over to rain. Within warm air advection, overnight temperatures likely remaining steady or slowly rising with early lows bottoming out in the 30s to lower 40s, with the coldest readings found east of Lake Ontario.

Shortwave trough over the upper Midwest tracks east and into the upper Great Lakes on Monday. Associated deepening surface wave will track northwest of the area across lower Michigan. This will maintain a deep southerly flow of warm moist air ahead of approaching cold front, resulting in widespread showers across the area. Rainfall amounts likely to be in the one-third to three- quarters of an inch range, although would not rule out isolated heavier amounts, especially if any convective elements can develop. Despite the rain, it will be a mild day Monday with most high temperatures getting into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Low pressure will move into Quebec Monday night sending a strong cold front toward the region, likely reaching far western New York by daybreak Tuesday. The widespread showers will gradually lessen Monday night as the main forcing shifts to out east.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. . SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK .

An Arctic cold front will plow across the region on Tuesday. As such, cold air will rapidly pour into the area in the wake of the front causing the lingering rain showers from Tuesday morning to abruptly transition over to snow showers as we head into Tuesday afternoon.

Winds shifting to westerly at 850 mb Tuesday night and Wednesday will advect cold air into the region, causing the 850 mb temperatures to drop to around -15C Tuesday night into early Wednesday, before a reinforcing shot of arctic air moves across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night, with 850 mb temperatures nearing -20C.

Multiple parameters remain favorable for a potentially significant lake effect snow event mid week, including good over-lake instability, available moisture and positioning of upper and lower level features suggesting a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario beginning Tuesday night continuing into most of the day on Wednesday. That said, have become a little less impressed with the overall shear profiles, which have become less favorable for a steady state heavy lake effect snow set up. However, we are still a few days out and as such uncertainty remains on the exact positioning of the lake effect bands.

High pressure will pass just south of the region later Thursday into Friday, with lowering precipitation chances as we progress toward the end of the period. Winds will begin their gradual shift from west-northwesterly Thursday morning, to more southwesterly by late in the day Thursday as high pressure moves southeast of the area. Although this will signal the beginning of the warm advection process, it will be a slow one. Temps aloft will still be plenty cold enough to support a lake response, though will be quite muted when compared to the previous as shear and drier air (lowering cap) come into play as well. Will most likely see the typical south to north 'sweep' of the lake bands as winds slowly back from west-northwest to southwest Thursday into Thursday evening. Any lingering snow showers northeast of the lakes Thursday night will become even more sparse by Friday as progressively warmer air continues to push in aloft.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Lake effect snow showers will continue southeast of Lake Ontario through this morning with local IFR from east of KROC to near KFZY. Some general light snow showers east of Lake Ontario will also produce areas of IFR VSBY. Outside of this, a few flurries and light snow showers will continue through early to mid morning across much of the region with mainly VFR VSBY. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue across the higher terrain and also in the lake effect clouds southeast of the lakes this morning.

High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes today. This will allow all the lake effect snow showers to end, with a return to mainly VFR CIGS by afternoon. VFR will then continue tonight as the high pressure drifts off the New England coast.

Outlook .

Sunday . VFR. MVFR in rain Sunday night with LLWS possible. Monday . Areas of MVFR in rain. Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late. Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow east of the Lakes.

MARINE. Moderate northwest winds will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions through early afternoon on Lake Ontario. High pressure will then build east across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon, allowing winds to diminish.

A short period of lighter winds is expected late today and tonight, but SSW winds will quickly increase on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Sunday. A windy period of weather will then continue through much of the week as a strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday, followed by moderate westerlies Tuesday night through Thursday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ043- 044. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . AR/TMA LONG TERM . EAJ/JM/TMA AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY	32 mi	50 min					1025.6 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	35 mi	44 min	WNW 24 G 33				1026 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY	67 mi	50 min		19°F			1025.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	85 mi	62 min	WSW 7 G 9.9	28°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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W20 G36

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W28 G36

W27 G36

W30 G37

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY	13 mi	66 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	18°F	15°F	88%	1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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