Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Princeton, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 061506 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 906 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

UPDATE.

Clouds have been slow to clear this morning but satellite trends suggest that much of southern WI will be cloud free by the noon hour. The exception to this is going to be for locations near Lake Michigan where clouds could linger a bit longer. Even with the sun this afternoon the strength of the CAA won't allow temps to climb much above current readings. Made some adjustments to sky and temp trends through the afternoon. Otherwise the current forecast is on track.

MARINE.

Gusty north to northeast winds jumped to near gale force for a brief time this morning across the southern half of the lake. But those have since weakened somewhat. As high pressure builds into the region expect the gusts to continue to fall through the afternoon. No changes are going to be made to the timing of the Small Craft Advisory today as that looks to be on track. Expect winds and waves to subside through the day across the entire lake.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 539 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019)

UPDATE .

Low clouds are hanging on across southern WI due to cold air advection this morning. The hole in the clouds is filling in over southeast WI as well. High pressure will continue to wedge into western WI and eventually southern WI today, so expect the clouds to gradually clear. Timing is quite uncertain. Most of the models want to clear the clouds very early in the day, but early morning satellite trends suggest otherwise.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

Low clouds with ceilings around 2000 ft have overspread southern WI early this morning due to cold air advection in the wake of a weak clipper system. The hole in the clouds is now closing across southern WI. Expect clouds to gradually clear today, although timing is uncertain. Most of the models want to clear the clouds very early in the day, but early morning satellite trends suggest otherwise. Ceilings should at least become VFR as they lift to 3500 ft by afternoon if they hang around longer than expected.

After a brief period of clear skies this afternoon and evening, mid level clouds are expected to sneak southward overnight. Increasing southerly winds and more mid level clouds will develop Saturday afternoon as another low pressure system approaches.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 248 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Saturday . Forecast Confidence is Medium to High.

A weak clipper system rolled across northern Lake Michigan last evening. Cold air advection and associated low clouds were sinking southward overnight and have overspread all of southern WI. There are holes in the stratus, especially over portions of northeast WI, so there is some uncertainty in how long these clouds will hold. Winds are rather gusty with the cold air advection. The RAP is showing higher winds than what is actually happening, so I used a blend of RAP and CONSRaw to get winds in the ballpark.

The pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure noses into WI by midday. The low level lapse rates due to cold air advection should decrease as well, so there is a decent chance for skies to clear this afternoon. Despite clearing skies, high temperatures will only make it into the lower to mid 30s.

It will be a chilly night tonight with high pressure overhead and mainly clear skies to begin. Mid level clouds are expected to spread into southern WI overnight as some weak warm air advection resumes with return flow around the high.

With high pressure over the Ohio River Valley and low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains, a tightening pressure gradient will bring increasing southerly winds to southern Wisconsin and Lake Michigan Saturday afternoon. Cloud cover is a little uncertain for the day, as warm air advection and an approaching low oftentimes comes with clouds. Highs are expected to reach around 40, although there is chance for slightly warmer temps.

LONG TERM .

Saturday Night through Sunday Night . Forecast Confidence High .

Continued breezy conditions will keep temperatures on the warmer side Saturday night, with lows only falling into the low to mid 30s. That will set the stage for a warmish Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 40s, despite increasing cloud cover. Precip chances will increase through the afternoon into the evening, likely beginning in the form of patchy drizzle over the southeast, and expanding from there. A little snow will mix in at times north of I-94, especially toward Monday morning as colder air begins to arrive.

Monday and Tuesday . Moderate Confidence Regarding Snow, High Confidence in Temperatures .

The surface cold front will sweep through the region during the day Monday, with temperatures likely falling rapidly through the afternoon and especially into the evening hours. There looks to be a decent chance for most of the area to see a period of light snow Monday afternoon and evening, though uncertainty is higher than usual given some phasing issues in the model guidance with the mid level shortwaves.

Lows Monday night are expected to fall into the teens and single digits, with temps only recovering a couple of degrees during the day Tuesday. It will be quite breezy Monday night and Tuesday as well, resulting in wind chills around or below zero for much of the area.

Tuesday Night through Thursday Night . Forecast Confidence Moderate .

A reinforcing frontal boundary will pass through the area later Tuesday. Tuesday night through Wednesday night currently looks to be the coldest stretch, with overnight lows in the single digits below to single digits above zero, and daytime highs on Wednesday struggling to make it into the teens. Continued breezy conditions will result in wind chills between -10 and -20 late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Another wave may bring a round of precipitation to the Great Lakes/Midwest late in the workweek and/or heading into next weekend, though there is considerable uncertainty as to how this system will evolve.

AVIATION(09Z TAF Update) .

Low clouds with ceilings around 2000 ft have overspread southern WI early this morning due to cold air advection in the wake of a weak clipper system. However, there is a hole in the clouds over northeast WI and it is expanding into southern WI. Not sure how long this clearing will last. Gusty northerly winds and these low clouds should persist through the morning hours and then weaken/clear up by early afternoon.

After a brief period of clear skies this afternoon and evening, mid level clouds are expected to sneak southward overnight. Increasing southerly winds and more mid level clouds will develop Saturday afternoon as another low pressure system approaches.

MARINE .

Gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold front will diminish by early afternoon as high pressure noses into Wisconsin. Look for southerly winds to develop tonight and become strong Saturday afternoon and night. Gusts should reach gale force Saturday night through Sunday. There has been a consistent signal for this to occur, so a Gale Watch is in effect.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LMZ645- 646.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LMZ643-644.



Update . Stumpf Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Cronce Saturday THROUGH Thursday . Boxell

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	74 mi	66 min	NW 7 G 15	32°F			1026.1 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	75 mi	46 min	NNW 14 G 16	31°F			1025.7 hPa (+3.3)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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N2

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SE6

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S3 G6

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SW3 G6

NW4

NW4 G8

NW7 G11

N10 G14

N9 G15

N8 G14

NW5 G9

NW6 G13

N6 G11

N8 G12

N13 G22

N5 G12

1 day ago

NW9 G14

W10 G15

W8 G13

W8 G16

NW13 G17

W12 G17

W8 G17

W8 G14

W5 G12

NW8 G12

W6 G11

NW8 G12

W5 G14

NW8 G12

NW7 G10

NW1 G4

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SW4 G12

SW8 G11

SW8 G12

W8 G12

SW4 G10

W5 G10

W7

W9 G15

W13 G17

W12 G16

W10 G15

W9 G13

W9 G15

W10 G14

W10 G16

W8 G11

W6 G11

W9 G14

W9 G14

W8 G13

W6 G11

NW7 G11

W6 G12

NW9 G14

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Wautoma, Wautoma Municipal Airport, WI	14 mi	50 min	NW 8	10.00 mi	Fair	33°F	18°F	54%	1026.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KY50

Wind History from Y50 (wind in knots)

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NW7

NW13 G17

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1 day ago

W13 G23

NW19 G27

NW14 G21

NW12 G22

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NW12 G18

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W12 G18

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W16 G22

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NW16 G21

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (11,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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