Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brownville, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:00PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 1:16 AM EDT (05:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:04PMMoonset 10:59AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 705 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201908210330;;953387 FZUS51 KBUF 202305 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 705 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-210330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brownville, NY
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location: 43.95, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 210215
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1015 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
Warm and humid conditions will persist across the region through
Wednesday while the potential for thunderstorms will gradually
increase. Some of these storms may become strong ahead of a cold
front Wednesday afternoon and evening. A prolonged stretch of
beautiful weather including cooler and less humid conditions will
then set in from Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
Radar imagery showing dry conditions across the region late this
evening, with showers and embedded thunderstorms lurking upstream
across central lake erie. Thicker cloud cover ahead of these showers
will continue to increase from west to east across the region
overnight.

As we push through the overnight... We will have to watch the
remnants of a convectively enhanced shortwave that will be crossing
ohio. This convectively enhanced shortwave has become quite active
across southeast lower michigan and ohio. These storms will likely
weaken as diurnal instability remains, but forcing from the mid
level shortwave and some lingering instability should still support
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as this system moves
into western ny late tonight. Have increased pops a little more for
later tonight and early Wednesday morning, with the highest chances
along and south of the thruway across western ny later tonight, then
spreading to points southeast of lake ontario by daybreak Wednesday.

The airmass in advance of this feature will be relatively unstable
by late night standards, with plenty of elevated CAPE (avg 500 j kg)
to tap into. Will gradually increase pops across the region later
tonight... With low chc pops quickly ramping up to categorical over
the southern tier by daybreak. While the storms will likely produced
locally heavy rain (pwat values approaching 2") and frequent
lightning... Am not anticipating severe weather.

Otherwise it will be warm and muggy tonight. Mins will range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s across the lake plains to the mid 60s
across the southern tier and the lower 60s in lewis county.

While unsettled conditions are expected across parts of the forecast
area on Wednesday... Including the threat for strong to severe
convection... Many areas will also likely experience a long stretch
of problem free weather. As we open the day... Convection from the
aforementioned convectively enhanced shortwave will be moving east
across the region, with this first batch of rain then mostly ending
from west to east later in the morning. Elevated CAPE values
averaging 500 j kg will help to fuel the convection... But with only
20 kts of bulk shear being forecast... Am not anticipating a high
threat for severe weather. The storms will have a higher chance for
producing very heavy rain with localized amounts in excess of an
inch in under an hour. The threat for significant rainfall will be
supported by pwat values that will approach 2 inches and a nearly
saturated moisture profile that will include -10c level (mixed
hydrometeors) of nearly 20k ft. This environment will favor warm
rain processes... So radar based rainfall estimates should be used
with caution.

Subsidence in the wake of the morning shortwave should provide a few
hours of dry time in many areas from late morning through early
afternoon. Scattered storms will then re-develop along and inland of
the lake breeze boundaries by mid afternoon. Meanwhile increasing
southwest flow off the lakes will result in stable lake shadows,
which may keep areas near buffalo and watertown mainly dry for the
bulk of the afternoon. Renewed convection along the lake breeze
boundary will feed off an increasingly unstable airmass (sbcapes as
high as 1000 j kg) to support likely pops over the finger lakes and
inland portions of the western southern tier. While this convection
could include some storms with gusty winds and heavy rain...

sufficient shear for organized bowing line segments will be meager.

By early evening... A strong cold front will be approaching from
southern ontario. Increased convergence along and ahead of this
boundary will then combine with a modest 30kt low level jet to
strengthen any ongoing convection. This will be the time when strong
to severe storms will be the highest, although given the timing of
the cold front the greatest severe weather risk along the cold front
may end up being in southern ontario. As of the writing of this
discussion... The storm prediction center only has portions of the
finger lakes and eastern lake ontario region outlined in a marginal
risk area.

Other than the threat for strong storms on Wednesday... It will once
again be warm and humid. MAX temps will be in the low to mid 80s for
most areas while surface dewpoints will climb to around 70.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
A cold front will be in the process of moving east across the region
with associated convection, probably over east of the eastern lake
ontario region Wednesday evening. There may be another trailing
line initially moving sse across lake ontario and into wny and
central ny in the evening as well. Once these move through, expect
generally quiet weather to end the week.

A relatively high amplitude upper level pattern will temporarily be
over central and eastern canada beginning Wednesday night, defined
by a large ridge axis over manitoba and downstream low over ontario
and quebec. This setup is already getting started, with a building
ridge over the western us (and points north) along with an upper
level low SW of hudson bay northern ontario. By Thursday, the
southern reaches of the latter feature will be felt over wny for the
remainder of the week with a corresponding cool airmass and below
normal temperatures. This should be more refreshing than anything
else, with highs about 5-10f below normal and mainly in the low 70s
both Thursday and Friday.

The continental sourced airmass should result in dry weather,
although moisture initially trapped in the wnw flow may start off
with weak lake effect clouds and maybe a sprinkle or two from the
upslope flow. This should morph into an abundant inland
stratocumulus field on Thursday and or Friday. Meanwhile, with the
early fall-like weather airmass and continued subsidence, expect
some overnight and early morning valley fog.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Saturday and Sunday the axis of sprawling surface high pressure
will slowly drift from the central great lakes to the mid-atlantic
and new england coastlines... While weak troughing slowly gives way
to building heights aloft. The 12z 20 ECMWF maintains more in the
way of troughing aloft during this time frame and consequently tries
to spit out a few spotty light showers... However feel that this is
overdone with dry weather more than likely to prevail given
plentiful dry air and subsidence attendant to the surface ridge.

Monday and Tuesday the medium range guidance begins to diverge
with respect to how quickly the ridge slides further east and
out to sea... And gives way to the next trough and associated
moisture approaching from the west. The GFS remains fastest with
this overall scenario and brings increasing chances for convection
into our region... While the ECMWF lies on the other side of the
guidance envelope and keeps the ridge intact and our region
totally dry through Tuesday. Given continuity and a general
distrust for the GFS this far out... Will lean toward the latter
scenario and keep dry weather in place through Monday... With
only very low-end chances for convection returning on Tuesday.

Otherwise... The combination of general airmass modification and warm
air advection will lead to a slow but steady day-to-day warming
trend through this period... With highs in the lower to mid 70s on
Saturday climbing back to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Monday.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure will drift east across new england tonight, allowing
an upper level disturbance to move east into the region overnight
through early Wednesday. This system will bring increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms by around midnight across far western
ny, then spreading east across the rest of the area through late
tonight and early Wednesday morning. Areas of MVFR CIGS may develop
across the western southern tier late tonight and Wednesday morning.

OtherwiseVFR will prevail for the rest of the area, with any MVFR
to ifr conditions limited to in and near thunderstorms.

The first batch of showers and storms will mostly end from west to
east Wednesday morning as the upper level disturbance moves into
eastern ny. Renewed scattered convection will develop in the
afternoon along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries. Meanwhile
southwest flow off the lakes will allow stable lake shadows to form,
keeping areas near kbuf and kart mainly dry in the afternoon.VFR
will prevail from late morning through the afternoon, with any MVFR
to ifr conditions limited to in and near thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local ifr to MVFR conditions each morning.

Marine
High pressure will continue light winds and waves on the lakes though
tonight.

A southwesterly flow will increase Wednesday ahead of a cold front
with waves building to 2-4 feet on lake erie during the midday and
afternoon. A cold front will swing across the lower lakes Wednesday
evening and early overnight... With waves and winds increasing within
the cold air advection environment.

Wnw winds over the shorter fetch of lake erie will build waves 2-3
feet Wednesday night and Thursday, while a longer fetch and slightly
stronger wind flow over lake ontario could bring waves 5 feet or
greater on the southern lake ontario shoreline. Small craft
advisories may be needed later this week for these higher winds and
waves on lake ontario.

Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes Wednesday
evening. Strengthening northwesterlies in the wake of the front will
increase wave action and combine with already high lake levels to
produce the potential for significant shoreline erosion and flooding
Wednesday night into Thursday evening. A lakeshore flood watch
continues from niagara county to oswego county.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
evening for nyz004>006.

Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for nyz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Hitchcock rsh
short term... Zaff
long term... Jjr
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock rsh thomas
tides coastal flooding... Rsh jla


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 27 mi46 min 74°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi52 min SSE 8 G 9.9 73°F 1013.9 hPa63°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 48 mi76 min SSE 12 G 16 75°F 74°F1 ft1013.4 hPa (-0.7)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 58 mi52 min 67°F 71°F1014.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 97 mi76 min S 6 G 8.9 77°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY4 mi20 minS 410.00 miA Few Clouds73°F60°F64%1013.2 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY15 mi20 minSSE 810.00 miFair67°F59°F76%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmSE3CalmCalmE3E3CalmSW3SW5W6W9W12W11W9W8W7SW3SW3CalmCalmNE3E33
1 day agoS5CalmS5SW9
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2 days agoNE4SE3E3CalmCalmS3CalmSW3SW5S6SE4SW4Calm3W6W8W10SW8S43SE3SE33S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.