|
Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen |
| Sunrise 6:12AM | Sunset 8:00PM | Wednesday August 21, 2019 1:16 AM EDT (05:16 UTC) | Moonrise 10:04PM | Moonset 10:59AM | Illumination 70% |  |
LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 705 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:201908210330;;953387
FZUS51 KBUF 202305
NSHBUF
Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
705 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019
For waters within five nautical miles of shore
Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
LOZ045-210330-
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brownville, NY
Hourly EDIT Helplocation: 43.95, -76 debug
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition| Fxus61 kbuf 210215 afdbuf area forecast discussion national weather service buffalo ny 1015 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 Synopsis Warm and humid conditions will persist across the region through Wednesday while the potential for thunderstorms will gradually increase. Some of these storms may become strong ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening. A prolonged stretch of beautiful weather including cooler and less humid conditions will then set in from Thursday through the upcoming weekend. Near term through Wednesday Radar imagery showing dry conditions across the region late this evening, with showers and embedded thunderstorms lurking upstream across central lake erie. Thicker cloud cover ahead of these showers will continue to increase from west to east across the region overnight. As we push through the overnight... We will have to watch the remnants of a convectively enhanced shortwave that will be crossing ohio. This convectively enhanced shortwave has become quite active across southeast lower michigan and ohio. These storms will likely weaken as diurnal instability remains, but forcing from the mid level shortwave and some lingering instability should still support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as this system moves into western ny late tonight. Have increased pops a little more for later tonight and early Wednesday morning, with the highest chances along and south of the thruway across western ny later tonight, then spreading to points southeast of lake ontario by daybreak Wednesday. The airmass in advance of this feature will be relatively unstable by late night standards, with plenty of elevated CAPE (avg 500 j kg) to tap into. Will gradually increase pops across the region later tonight... With low chc pops quickly ramping up to categorical over the southern tier by daybreak. While the storms will likely produced locally heavy rain (pwat values approaching 2") and frequent lightning... Am not anticipating severe weather. Otherwise it will be warm and muggy tonight. Mins will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the lake plains to the mid 60s across the southern tier and the lower 60s in lewis county. While unsettled conditions are expected across parts of the forecast area on Wednesday... Including the threat for strong to severe convection... Many areas will also likely experience a long stretch of problem free weather. As we open the day... Convection from the aforementioned convectively enhanced shortwave will be moving east across the region, with this first batch of rain then mostly ending from west to east later in the morning. Elevated CAPE values averaging 500 j kg will help to fuel the convection... But with only 20 kts of bulk shear being forecast... Am not anticipating a high threat for severe weather. The storms will have a higher chance for producing very heavy rain with localized amounts in excess of an inch in under an hour. The threat for significant rainfall will be supported by pwat values that will approach 2 inches and a nearly saturated moisture profile that will include -10c level (mixed hydrometeors) of nearly 20k ft. This environment will favor warm rain processes... So radar based rainfall estimates should be used with caution. Subsidence in the wake of the morning shortwave should provide a few hours of dry time in many areas from late morning through early afternoon. Scattered storms will then re-develop along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries by mid afternoon. Meanwhile increasing southwest flow off the lakes will result in stable lake shadows, which may keep areas near buffalo and watertown mainly dry for the bulk of the afternoon. Renewed convection along the lake breeze boundary will feed off an increasingly unstable airmass (sbcapes as high as 1000 j kg) to support likely pops over the finger lakes and inland portions of the western southern tier. While this convection could include some storms with gusty winds and heavy rain... sufficient shear for organized bowing line segments will be meager. By early evening... A strong cold front will be approaching from southern ontario. Increased convergence along and ahead of this boundary will then combine with a modest 30kt low level jet to strengthen any ongoing convection. This will be the time when strong to severe storms will be the highest, although given the timing of the cold front the greatest severe weather risk along the cold front may end up being in southern ontario. As of the writing of this discussion... The storm prediction center only has portions of the finger lakes and eastern lake ontario region outlined in a marginal risk area. Other than the threat for strong storms on Wednesday... It will once again be warm and humid. MAX temps will be in the low to mid 80s for most areas while surface dewpoints will climb to around 70. Short term Wednesday night through Friday night A cold front will be in the process of moving east across the region with associated convection, probably over east of the eastern lake ontario region Wednesday evening. There may be another trailing line initially moving sse across lake ontario and into wny and central ny in the evening as well. Once these move through, expect generally quiet weather to end the week. A relatively high amplitude upper level pattern will temporarily be over central and eastern canada beginning Wednesday night, defined by a large ridge axis over manitoba and downstream low over ontario and quebec. This setup is already getting started, with a building ridge over the western us (and points north) along with an upper level low SW of hudson bay northern ontario. By Thursday, the southern reaches of the latter feature will be felt over wny for the |
remainder of the week with a corresponding cool airmass and below normal temperatures. This should be more refreshing than anything else, with highs about 5-10f below normal and mainly in the low 70s both Thursday and Friday. The continental sourced airmass should result in dry weather, although moisture initially trapped in the wnw flow may start off with weak lake effect clouds and maybe a sprinkle or two from the upslope flow. This should morph into an abundant inland stratocumulus field on Thursday and or Friday. Meanwhile, with the early fall-like weather airmass and continued subsidence, expect some overnight and early morning valley fog. Long term Saturday through Tuesday Saturday and Sunday the axis of sprawling surface high pressure will slowly drift from the central great lakes to the mid-atlantic and new england coastlines... While weak troughing slowly gives way to building heights aloft. The 12z 20 ECMWF maintains more in the way of troughing aloft during this time frame and consequently tries to spit out a few spotty light showers... However feel that this is overdone with dry weather more than likely to prevail given plentiful dry air and subsidence attendant to the surface ridge. Monday and Tuesday the medium range guidance begins to diverge with respect to how quickly the ridge slides further east and out to sea... And gives way to the next trough and associated moisture approaching from the west. The GFS remains fastest with this overall scenario and brings increasing chances for convection into our region... While the ECMWF lies on the other side of the guidance envelope and keeps the ridge intact and our region totally dry through Tuesday. Given continuity and a general distrust for the GFS this far out... Will lean toward the latter scenario and keep dry weather in place through Monday... With only very low-end chances for convection returning on Tuesday. Otherwise... The combination of general airmass modification and warm air advection will lead to a slow but steady day-to-day warming trend through this period... With highs in the lower to mid 70s on Saturday climbing back to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Monday. Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday High pressure will drift east across new england tonight, allowing an upper level disturbance to move east into the region overnight through early Wednesday. This system will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms by around midnight across far western ny, then spreading east across the rest of the area through late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Areas of MVFR CIGS may develop across the western southern tier late tonight and Wednesday morning. OtherwiseVFR will prevail for the rest of the area, with any MVFR to ifr conditions limited to in and near thunderstorms. The first batch of showers and storms will mostly end from west to east Wednesday morning as the upper level disturbance moves into eastern ny. Renewed scattered convection will develop in the afternoon along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries. Meanwhile southwest flow off the lakes will allow stable lake shadows to form, keeping areas near kbuf and kart mainly dry in the afternoon.VFR will prevail from late morning through the afternoon, with any MVFR to ifr conditions limited to in and near thunderstorms. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern tier valley fog producing local ifr to MVFR conditions each morning. Marine High pressure will continue light winds and waves on the lakes though tonight. A southwesterly flow will increase Wednesday ahead of a cold front with waves building to 2-4 feet on lake erie during the midday and afternoon. A cold front will swing across the lower lakes Wednesday evening and early overnight... With waves and winds increasing within the cold air advection environment. Wnw winds over the shorter fetch of lake erie will build waves 2-3 feet Wednesday night and Thursday, while a longer fetch and slightly stronger wind flow over lake ontario could bring waves 5 feet or greater on the southern lake ontario shoreline. Small craft advisories may be needed later this week for these higher winds and waves on lake ontario. Tides coastal flooding A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes Wednesday evening. Strengthening northwesterlies in the wake of the front will increase wave action and combine with already high lake levels to produce the potential for significant shoreline erosion and flooding Wednesday night into Thursday evening. A lakeshore flood watch continues from niagara county to oswego county. Buf watches warnings advisories Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for nyz004>006. Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for nyz001>003. Marine... None. Synopsis... Rsh near term... Hitchcock rsh short term... Zaff long term... Jjr aviation... Hitchcock marine... Hitchcock rsh thomas tides coastal flooding... Rsh jla |
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | Pressure | DewPt |
| ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY | 27 mi | 46 min | 74°F | |||||
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 43 mi | 52 min | SSE 8 G 9.9 | 73°F | 1013.9 hPa | 63°F | ||
| 45135 - Prince Edward Pt | 48 mi | 76 min | SSE 12 G 16 | 75°F | 74°F | 1 ft | 1013.4 hPa (-0.7) | |
| OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY | 58 mi | 52 min | 67°F | 71°F | 1014.3 hPa | |||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 97 mi | 76 min | S 6 G 8.9 | 77°F |
Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off) Help| 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | |
| Last 24hr | NW | SE | S | S | S | S | S | NW G8 | NW | NW | N G5 | N | N | N | NE | NE | N | S G8 | SE | SE | SE G9 | SE G13 | SE | SE G11 |
| 1 day ago | S G14 | SE G14 | S | S G10 | S | S G10 | S | S | S G10 | W G15 | W G21 | W G17 | W | W G15 | W G15 | W G15 | W G13 | W G13 | W G12 | W | SW | S | SW | S |
| 2 days ago | S | SE | SE | S | S | S | S G13 | S G12 | S G12 | S G16 | S | S G12 | S G13 | SW G10 | S G8 | SE | SE G10 | SE G11 | SE | S G14 |
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY | 4 mi | 20 min | S 4 | 10.00 mi | A Few Clouds | 73°F | 60°F | 64% | 1013.2 hPa |
| Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY | 15 mi | 20 min | SSE 8 | 10.00 mi | Fair | 67°F | 59°F | 76% | 1013.9 hPa |
Link to 5 minute data for KART
Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
| 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | |
| Last 24hr | S | Calm | SE | Calm | Calm | E | E | Calm | SW | SW | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | SW | SW | Calm | Calm | NE | E | |
| 1 day ago | S | Calm | S | SW G15 | S | S | S | S | SW | SW | SW G18 | W G21 | SW G19 | W G19 | SW G21 | SW G20 | SW G19 | SW G18 | SW G15 | SW | W | SW | Calm | SE |
| 2 days ago | NE | SE | E | Calm | Calm | S | Calm | SW | SW | S | SE | SW | Calm | W | W | W | SW | S | SE | SE | S |
Tide / Current Tables for
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) HelpTide / Current Tables for
EDIT (on/off) HelpWeather Map and Satellite Images
(on/off) HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
(on/off) Help
Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
(on/off) Help
Ad by Google
|
Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program. |