Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM   Moonset 4:25 PM

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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 939 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Rest of today - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Periods of rain, then showers likely late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Areas of fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 051801 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 201 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will push across the region this evening, producing showers and a few thunderstorms through tonight. Rain will then end from west to east later tonight, with high pressure bringing a return to dry weather Monday. The dry weather will last through most of Tuesday before a warm front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Early this afternoon radar shows an area of steady rain showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. This area is along an area of DPVA and will continue to move eastward with the shortwave. Elsewhere there's only sparse showers as of 2 p.m.
However, daytime heating will result in very limited surface based instability which could result in some showers and possibly a thunderstorm late afternoon into early evening. Then a cold front approaching from the west will trigger some showers as it moves through tonight. There could be a few thunderstorms along this line this evening due to the lingering instability, but by late tonight expect only scattered showers with this boundary.

Low level flow will become quite weak along and behind the cold front tonight, and drier air will lag behind by several hours.
Abundant low level moisture and weak flow will likely allow areas of fog to develop from late evening through the overnight, with some of this fog possibly lasting through early Monday morning.

Weak surface high pressure will then build across the region on Monday and Monday night. There will be a north to south clearing trend during the day Monday. Fair weather Monday night, with mostly clear skies outside of some lingering clouds near the Pennsylvania state line which will be close to the stalled frontal boundary.

Despite the cold frontal passage, afternoon sunshine will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday.
Good radiational cooling Monday night with lows mainly in the 40s. Forecast hedges towards a wider diurnal spread (warmer highs and cooler lows) due to the clear skies and light winds.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
On Tuesday the surface ridge axis will slowly drift east to New England weakening in the process...while the leading edge of a sprawling mid level trough and associated surface low over the north- central states slowly works its way into the Upper Mississippi Valley
As this does so
a warm frontal boundary snaking southeastward from this system will slowly push northeast across the Ohio Valley. While this latter feature could draw close enough to support the potential for a couple widely scattered showers across the Southern Tier later on in the afternoon...the day should otherwise feature continued dry weather with just a modest increase in cloud cover across far western New York. With our airmass starting to warm again highs should generally range through the 70s...though it will again be a bit cooler along the lakeshores due to onshore flow.

Tuesday night the various guidance packages suggest that the warm frontal boundary will lift further northeastward and into our region while also becoming increasingly wavy as a supporting mid-level shortwave ripples eastward across the central/eastern Great Lakes.
This will bring a general southwest-northeast increase in cloud cover and eventually the likelihood of some showers as the evening progresses...with a few thunderstorms also becoming possible due to the arrival of some weak elevated instability. Otherwise it will be a notably milder night with lows ranging from around 50 across the North Country to the mid and upper 50s south of the NYS Thruway.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The long term period continues to look wet with at least a chance of showers for the entire forecast area each day. A mid/upper level low over the northern Rockies will slowly track east, opening to a large scale trough through the second half of the week.

Earlier in the week with the trough/mid-level low to the west, periods of weak ridging over the region will give way to developing sfc lows and shortwave troughs that will bring an influx of GOMEX moisture north into the region. Moisture and large scale synoptic lift will provide for periods of showers with some breaks in the precip.

The larger trough will setup over the region by Friday, and persist through at least the weekend. This will provide for several rounds of showers, especially as different shortwave troughs track through/around the larger trough. Cyclonic flow and the trough in general over the region will also result in cooler temperatures.

Embedded thunderstorms will be possible at times, especially during the middle of the week when instability will be a bit better than later in the week.

Temperatures will start out above normal with highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s from the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the lower elevations of WNY respectively. Day-to-day cooling is then expected through the rest of the period as the trough moves into the region. Below normal high temperatures are expected for Saturday with temperatures only reaching the low 50s to near 60 for the afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low level moisture will remain in place for most of the 18Z TAF cycle. This afternoon mainly MVFR cigs with IFR across higher terrain. Area of showers across eastern Lake Ontario region will exit to the east by late afternoon. Otherwise, scattered instability showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across Western NY. Then steadier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm with the passage of a weak cold front this evening.

More low moisture behind this front, with IFR cigs likely along with areas of fog. Expecting vsby to drop to around one mile, but it will vary with lower vsbys possible at times.

Improving conditions late tonight and Monday morning as drier air builds in from the northwest. Expect mainly VFR flight conditions by Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.

MARINE
Negligible winds and waves through Tuesday. There may be some marine layer fog over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this afternoon through tonight as a warm/moist airmass overlays the cold lake waters.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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