Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brownville, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 122124 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 424 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slide off the New England coast which will maintain dry weather across our region through most of Friday. Low pressure tracking northward along the east coast will bring slightly warmer weather and rain to the area late Friday and Saturday. Cold air will return Sunday, with lake effect snow showers across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Surface high pressure will gradually slide off the New England coast with a southerly return flow developing across our region. This southerly flow will push the last of the lake effect snow showers off Lake Ontario northward into Canada this afternoon. Otherwise, mid-level clouds along an axis of warm air advection will move from SW-NE across the region through this evening. This axis will move north of the region tonight, with mostly clear skies developing after midnight. Despite the clear skies, a 10 to 20 mph southerly flow will hinder radiational cooling tonight. Temperatures may drop off in the most sheltered valleys this evening, but for the most part winds should keep the boundary layer mixed with low temperatures in the 20s.

High pressure will continue to move off the New England coast with a southerly flow beginning to advect some moisture into southern portions of the forecast area during the afternoon hours. The southerly flow will result in notably warmer weather with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The warmest areas will be the lake plains which will be aided by southerly downsloping

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Phasing of the northern and southern stream will take place across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic region Friday night into Saturday. A 130kt upper level jet will curve around a departing ridge across the eastern Great Lakes Friday night. While warm air advection continues across the region, an easterly flow off the Atlantic will intensify moisture into inland portions of the region. At first, only light amounts of rain expected across inland portions of the region Friday evening before a surge of theta-e advection moves in overnight. There may be pockets of sub-freezing surface temperatures Friday evening however confidence is low as warm air advection is strong at the surface and temperatures are expected to climb through the night. Also, cloud cover looks likely which will limit radiational cooling early on. At this time, mainly rain is expected however there is a low chance of freezing rain for interior valleys of the Southern Tier as well as the Tug Hill region Friday evening. By Saturday morning, temperatures should be well above freezing and rain will be spreading across the region. Rainfall amounts will range from a half inch along the Lake Erie/Niagara River and NYS border to 0.75-1.00 inches east of the Genesee Valley. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 40s Saturday which will result in snowmelt in combination with the rainfall expected. Rivers and creeks will rise however model ensembles keep sites below flood stages so flood potential is low.

Surface low pressure will track into southern Quebec Saturday night while the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted. Warm air and moisture from the Atlantic will wrap around the low and while northwest flow filters into the region, rain will transition to snow showers from west to east. Surface temperatures will remain marginal, low to mid 30s, through Saturday night while drier air moves into the region. Most of the snow showers will be confined to the higher elevations with light accumulations expected. Cold air advection will continue through Sunday night and while 850mb temperatures fall low enough for lake induced instability, synoptic moisture is cut off with surface high pressure moving across the Ohio Valley. Snow accumulations of 1-2 inches are possible at higher elevations east of Lake Erie and 2-4 inches east of Lake Ontario Saturday night through Sunday night. Temperatures remain marginal across the Lake Plains and less than an inch is expected during this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. On Monday the surface ridge will slowly drift from New York State into New England resulting in dry weather across the region. 12Z model consensus tracks low pressure from southern Ohio into southern New England, and although there are some differences it appears likely it will track to our south which will keep us on the cold/mainly snow side of the system. The system will not be well organized at this point with an open mid-level wave likely to result in only minor snow accumulations (a few inches or less).

This low will strengthen as it reaches the Canadian maritimes which will establish a cold northwesterly flow across our region. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -20C which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect snow. The amount of moisture will depend on how developed the mid level low is, and here is where there is some model disagreement. There will be at least some lake response Tuesday night and Wednesday which may linger into Wednesday night. It will be a west to northwest flow during this period, with the potential to produce significant accumulations depending on how it plays out. Still way too early for specific snow amounts, but stay tuned.

Winds will diminish as the low moves away on Thursday with lingering lake snows tapering off. Temperatures will average below normal throughout the period, especially on Wednesday and Thursday when daytime highs will only be in the 20s.

AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Expect widespread VFR flight conditions throughout the TAF period. An area of mid-level clouds will move across the region through this evening, then this will be followed by mainly clear skies. There will be a 10-15 knot southerly flow through 18Z Friday.

Outlook .

Friday night . VFR lowering to MVFR in rain and possibly some mixed precipitation. Saturday . IFR/MVFR. Rain. Sunday . Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially southeast of the lakes. Monday . VFR. Tuesday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers.

MARINE. High pressure will slide eastward off the New England coast with a strengthening southerly flow across the lakes. These will be strongest along the east shores of Lake Ontario where Small Craft headlines were issued. It will be close on Lake Erie, but with winds marginal and offshore it probably will fall just short of criteria.

Low pressure will track across New England on Saturday with an increasing northwesterly flow which may require more Small Craft headlines.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Apffel/JLA MARINE . Apffel

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY	27 mi	57 min					1035.2 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	43 mi	51 min	SSE 6 G 8.9				1035.2 hPa (-1.4)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY	58 mi	57 min		25°F			1035.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	97 mi	51 min	SE 8 G 9.9	30°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY	4 mi	1.9 hrs	SSW 6	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	28°F	14°F	56%	1036.2 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY	15 mi	1.9 hrs	SSW 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	26°F	15°F	66%	1035.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)

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SW23 G37

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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