Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brownville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 4:27PM Thursday December 12, 2019 4:50 PM EST (21:50 UTC) Moonrise 5:02PMMoonset 7:46AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 331 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy this evening, then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 8 to 12 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of snow Monday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow during the day, then snow showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:201912130400;;253053 FZUS51 KBUF 122038 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 331 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-130400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brownville, NY
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location: 43.95, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 122124 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 424 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slide off the New England coast which will maintain dry weather across our region through most of Friday. Low pressure tracking northward along the east coast will bring slightly warmer weather and rain to the area late Friday and Saturday. Cold air will return Sunday, with lake effect snow showers across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Surface high pressure will gradually slide off the New England coast with a southerly return flow developing across our region. This southerly flow will push the last of the lake effect snow showers off Lake Ontario northward into Canada this afternoon. Otherwise, mid-level clouds along an axis of warm air advection will move from SW-NE across the region through this evening. This axis will move north of the region tonight, with mostly clear skies developing after midnight. Despite the clear skies, a 10 to 20 mph southerly flow will hinder radiational cooling tonight. Temperatures may drop off in the most sheltered valleys this evening, but for the most part winds should keep the boundary layer mixed with low temperatures in the 20s.

High pressure will continue to move off the New England coast with a southerly flow beginning to advect some moisture into southern portions of the forecast area during the afternoon hours. The southerly flow will result in notably warmer weather with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The warmest areas will be the lake plains which will be aided by southerly downsloping

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Phasing of the northern and southern stream will take place across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic region Friday night into Saturday. A 130kt upper level jet will curve around a departing ridge across the eastern Great Lakes Friday night. While warm air advection continues across the region, an easterly flow off the Atlantic will intensify moisture into inland portions of the region. At first, only light amounts of rain expected across inland portions of the region Friday evening before a surge of theta-e advection moves in overnight. There may be pockets of sub-freezing surface temperatures Friday evening however confidence is low as warm air advection is strong at the surface and temperatures are expected to climb through the night. Also, cloud cover looks likely which will limit radiational cooling early on. At this time, mainly rain is expected however there is a low chance of freezing rain for interior valleys of the Southern Tier as well as the Tug Hill region Friday evening. By Saturday morning, temperatures should be well above freezing and rain will be spreading across the region. Rainfall amounts will range from a half inch along the Lake Erie/Niagara River and NYS border to 0.75-1.00 inches east of the Genesee Valley. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 40s Saturday which will result in snowmelt in combination with the rainfall expected. Rivers and creeks will rise however model ensembles keep sites below flood stages so flood potential is low.

Surface low pressure will track into southern Quebec Saturday night while the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted. Warm air and moisture from the Atlantic will wrap around the low and while northwest flow filters into the region, rain will transition to snow showers from west to east. Surface temperatures will remain marginal, low to mid 30s, through Saturday night while drier air moves into the region. Most of the snow showers will be confined to the higher elevations with light accumulations expected. Cold air advection will continue through Sunday night and while 850mb temperatures fall low enough for lake induced instability, synoptic moisture is cut off with surface high pressure moving across the Ohio Valley. Snow accumulations of 1-2 inches are possible at higher elevations east of Lake Erie and 2-4 inches east of Lake Ontario Saturday night through Sunday night. Temperatures remain marginal across the Lake Plains and less than an inch is expected during this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. On Monday the surface ridge will slowly drift from New York State into New England resulting in dry weather across the region. 12Z model consensus tracks low pressure from southern Ohio into southern New England, and although there are some differences it appears likely it will track to our south which will keep us on the cold/mainly snow side of the system. The system will not be well organized at this point with an open mid-level wave likely to result in only minor snow accumulations (a few inches or less).

This low will strengthen as it reaches the Canadian maritimes which will establish a cold northwesterly flow across our region. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -20C which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect snow. The amount of moisture will depend on how developed the mid level low is, and here is where there is some model disagreement. There will be at least some lake response Tuesday night and Wednesday which may linger into Wednesday night. It will be a west to northwest flow during this period, with the potential to produce significant accumulations depending on how it plays out. Still way too early for specific snow amounts, but stay tuned.

Winds will diminish as the low moves away on Thursday with lingering lake snows tapering off. Temperatures will average below normal throughout the period, especially on Wednesday and Thursday when daytime highs will only be in the 20s.

AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Expect widespread VFR flight conditions throughout the TAF period. An area of mid-level clouds will move across the region through this evening, then this will be followed by mainly clear skies. There will be a 10-15 knot southerly flow through 18Z Friday.

Outlook .

Friday night . VFR lowering to MVFR in rain and possibly some mixed precipitation. Saturday . IFR/MVFR. Rain. Sunday . Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially southeast of the lakes. Monday . VFR. Tuesday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers.

MARINE. High pressure will slide eastward off the New England coast with a strengthening southerly flow across the lakes. These will be strongest along the east shores of Lake Ontario where Small Craft headlines were issued. It will be close on Lake Erie, but with winds marginal and offshore it probably will fall just short of criteria.

Low pressure will track across New England on Saturday with an increasing northwesterly flow which may require more Small Craft headlines.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Apffel/JLA MARINE . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 27 mi57 min 1035.2 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi51 min SSE 6 G 8.9 1035.2 hPa (-1.4)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 58 mi57 min 25°F 1035.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 97 mi51 min SE 8 G 9.9 30°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W25
G44
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W26
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W23
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S10
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N10
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NE6
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SE4
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G12
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G31
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G29
W20
G27

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY4 mi1.9 hrsSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F14°F56%1036.2 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY15 mi1.9 hrsSSW 810.00 miOvercast26°F15°F66%1035.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW23
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W11W12W12W11NW5N4E3SE3CalmE3S4S83S8S6
1 day agoW11W16
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W14W16W15
G24
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G24
W15W9NW7NW4NW4CalmE4E3CalmE3SE3S6S12
G19
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G26
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2 days agoS9
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W10W12W14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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