Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:18PM Friday January 24, 2020 9:43 PM PST (05:43 UTC) Moonrise 7:51AMMoonset 5:10PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 915 Pm Pst Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through late Saturday night...
Rest of tonight..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 16 seconds. Rain.
Sat..SW wind 5 kt with gusts to 15 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the se 4 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Sat night..SW wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 12 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 30 kt, becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 6 ft at 8 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 16 seconds. Rain likely.
Sun night..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 6 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 16 seconds. Rain likely.
Mon..SW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. W swell 14 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..SW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 11 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 14 ft.
Wed..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. W swell 11 ft.
PZZ200 915 Pm Pst Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak front will move across the waters tonight. A 990 mb low will then brush by the offshore waters late Saturday, then make landfall over western washington on Sunday. Active weather persist through the upcoming week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, OR
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location: 44, -124.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 250449 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 848 PM PST Fri Jan 24 2020

Updated Short Term/Aviation/Marine sections

SYNOPSIS. A series of weather systems will move through Southwest Washington and Northwest Oregon during the next few days. A low pressure area will likely bring windy conditions to the coast.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday (UPDATED) . Evening water vapor imagery revealed a weak transitory 500 mb ridge axis moving across area. The next weather system was taking shape inside 130W, with the leading edge of warm advection or over-running precipitation near the coast. The KLGX doppler radar showed this warm-frontal precip shield close to the coast at 04Z.

The 00Z model runs, specifically the GFS and NAM, did not contain the full available 00Z RAOB data. The guidance does indicate favorable isentropic lift along the 290K surface 09Z-15Z Sat. This system looks to move fairly quickly and do not anticipate additional hydro concerns despite coastal rivers running a little high. The progressive pattern continues through the short term and beyond with another weather system forecast to impact the area Sat night and Sun. Models suggest a sub-995 mb low will be near 46N 127W 06Z Sun and thenb swing northeast to Vancouver Island by 12Z Sun. The low deepens to near 990 mb as it approaches Vancouver Island. This will likely result in windy conditions along the coast. A southeast surface gradient orientation Sat evening is not favorable for high wind. By the time a more favorable southerly orientation develops, the gradient is just starting to weaken. Models indicate about an 8 mb KAST-KOTH gradient 15Z Sun, which is enough for 50 mph gusts. Will need to closely monitor QPF Sat night through Sun. The NBM indicates 24-hr 90th percentile QPF values valid 00Z Mon of 2 to 2.5 inches for the Willapa Hills and South Washington Cascades. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Monday night through Friday . Persistent valley rain and mountain snow is expected through the end of next week. Models and their ensembles are in agreement that a trough will move through the Pacific Northwest Monday night and Tuesday, bringing heavy rain to the coast and valley and snow in the Cascades. There will be a brief break from this precipitation during the day on Wednesday before the next system moves through the area Wednesday night. Precipitation will continue Thursday and Thursday night before another brief break on Friday. A zonal flow will persist through the forecast period keeping highs and low temperatures above average for this time of the year. Snow levels will be around 4500ft Monday through Wednesday before climbing to around 6000ft through Friday. -Thaler

AVIATION. The next in a long series of frontal systems is spreading rain onshore into the Oregon coast. Rain will spread inland, though with mostly VFR conditions overnight for inland terminals. Better chance of MVFR early Sat morning as rain increases for lower cigs/vsbys. The coast is also mostly VFR this evening due to an offshore flow component ahead of the approaching warm front. This respite will be brief, as MVFR/IFR conditions will likely develop once the front moves through and winds shift southwesterly around 12z Sat morning. A return to offshore flow ahead of the next frontal system may allow improvement to VFR all areas Sat afternoon, but there will be an increasing chance of rain as we head into Sat evening.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Mainly VFR with light to moderate E-SE sfc winds overnight, shifting to S-SW Sat morning. Warm front spreads light rain back into the area overnight, with an increasing chance of MVFR toward daybreak Sat. Any MVFR Sat morning should give way to VFR as offshore flow returns Sat afternoon and evening. Weagle

MARINE. Active weather pattern continues for the foreseeable future as a series of Pacific frontal systems move across the coastal waters. Seas will generally be 10 ft or above the next several days, though they may briefly dip below 10 ft Saturday afternoon. With lighter winds as well, Saturday will probably be relatively the best window of the next few days to be on the waters, though conditions will still be on fringe of what would be hazardous to small craft.

Conditions deteriorate quickly Sat evening as developing low pressure strengthens to 990-995 mb and brushes our outer waters. Given that the low will be in a strengthening phase while brushing our waters and most models show boundary layer winds on the order of 40 kt, figure it is prudent to issue a Gale Watch for Sat night. This will probably be a low-end gale, but seas will quickly become very steep and choppy as they rise to around 15 feet Sat night and Sun morning. Winds ease Sunday morning, but forecast models are hinting at additional gales later Sunday and again on Monday.

Bottom line is, with the weather pattern remaining active well into next week, we expect generally rough conditions on the Pac NW waters for the next several days. Weagle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until noon PST Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Columbia River Bar.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 27 mi44 min 51°F11 ft
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 43 mi44 min E 4.1 G 5.1 50°F
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 43 mi62 min ESE 5.1 G 6 50°F 50°F1015.7 hPa
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 46 mi68 min 51°F1015.8 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR40 mi49 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F46°F88%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONP

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:00 AM PST     6.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:09 AM PST     3.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:29 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:52 AM PST     8.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:16 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:12 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:57 PM PST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.36.66.35.54.53.73.33.54.35.66.87.88.17.66.44.62.71-0.2-0.5-0.11.12.84.5

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:02 AM PST     6.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM PST     2.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:28 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:54 PM PST     7.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:17 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:12 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:03 PM PST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.75.76.15.8543.22.82.93.74.96.17.17.475.94.42.61.1-0-0.5-0.112.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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