Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 311435 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1035 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

UPDATE.

The morning update nudges POPs upward a little more into the chance/scattered category for this afternoon. This is based on recent trends in model data and keeping in mind how things turned out yesterday during afternoon peak warming. The setup is similar today with a segment of the upper level trough lingering over Lower Michigan to provide some weak vertical motion support. Daytime warming on the last day of March does the rest by generating weak instability within the low levels that show steeper lapse rate and a moist low level profile in models soundings. The end result is another round of scattered rain showers mainly inland from the shorelines that last into early evening before diminishing after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 552 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

AVIATION .

Low stratus remains in place through the day as a midlevel shortwave trough pivots overhead and plenty of moisture lingers in the boundary layer. Light north winds shift to a more northeasterly direction this morning which helps advect additional low-level moisture in from Lake Huron. mbS and FNT stand the best chance at periods of IFR ceilings this morning. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings prevail through the TAF period with heights predominantly below 2000 ft. Intermittent light showers/sprinkles will dot the region this afternoon and evening but should be of little consequence.

For DTW . NE wind this afternoon flirts with the 7 kt noise abatement threshold but is expected to stay generally below.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through today.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

DISCUSSION .

Upper low pressure will continue to shear eastward today, but lagging upper trough (enhanced by shortwave passing to the south) will maintain grungy weather conditions with cloudy skies and high temperatures in the 40s. These conditions will hold into Wednesday as well as some phasing occurs with remaining shortwave energy over the northeast CONUS and shortwave passing through the southern Ohio Valley around the base of the elongated upper trough/low over the Great Lakes/northeast. This process will delay the arrival of upper ridging which promises to bring improved conditions late in the week.

The transition from upper troughing to the translation of this upper ridge into the area will occur late Wednesday into Thursday with extensive cloud cover already beginning to breakup to some degree during the day Wednesday. Partly/mostly clear skies will accompany upper riding Thursday/Friday with temperatures climbing well into the 50s in most locations by that point in the week.

In the meantime, upper trough over western Canada/Pacific Northwest will be expanding eastward over the northern rockies, northern plains and Prairie Provinces. Jet energy will race around this upper trough and push a shortwave and attending weak surface cold front or trough through the area by Saturday. This will bring a chance of rain showers with its passage with just scattered showers expected at this time.

Temperatures really do not cool down with the passage of this feature early in the weekend given the amount of moderate Pacific air that translates east into the area around the base of retreating area of polar air over southern/central Canada. Will maintain highs in the 50s to around 60 into Sunday and on into early next week. Any shower activity post fropa will be very isolated in nature to end this forecast period Sunday/Monday.

MARINE .

Northerly winds will decrease slightly today while veering to the northeast this afternoon as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. Winds will remain relatively light from a northerly component through the end of the week as high pressure will remain in control.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



UPDATE . BT AVIATION . TF DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	19 mi	52 min	NNE 15 G 18	36°F
KP58	20 mi	41 min	NNE 8	38°F			1017.6 hPa	36°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI	31 mi	86 min	NNE 8.9 G 9.9
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	33 mi	32 min	NE 18 G 21	37°F			1016.9 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

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W9 G13

NW10 G16

NW12 G15

NW14 G22

NW11 G15

NW9 G13

N17

1 day ago

SW15 G22

W16 G25

SW11 G15

SW5

SW15 G23

SW14 G21

SW13 G18

W12 G17

W10 G14

2 days ago

NE11 G14

E13 G16

NE11

NE5 G8

N7

N9

N10

NE7 G11

E7

SE6 G9

SE9

S13 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI	19 mi	37 min	NE 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	39°F	37°F	97%	1016.9 hPa
Port Hope, MI	20 mi	41 min	NNE 8	mi		38°F	36°F	93%	1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)

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NW10 G14

NW6

NW9 G15

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N12 G15

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SW18 G27

SW15 G29

W12 G21

W13 G28

SW18 G26

SW15 G22

SW17 G27

SW14 G25

SW17 G22

SW19 G23

SW15 G22

SW15 G22

W14 G21

W15 G22

W16 G22

W11 G18

W12 G16

W10 G16

W9

W9 G14

W8 G17

NW9 G14

W9 G14

NW8 G14

2 days ago

NE8

E6

NE6

NE6

NE6

NE6

NE4

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SE7 G14

SE8 G15

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SE11 G15

SE11 G17

SE10 G18

SE10 G17

SE8 G15

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SW10 G19

SW10 G19

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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