Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:00PM Saturday December 7, 2019 5:17 PM EST (22:17 UTC) Moonrise 2:47PMMoonset 2:52AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 350 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 30 knots until late afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning, then cloudy with a slight chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy with light showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southwest early in the afternoon. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201912080415;;004087 FZUS53 KDTX 072050 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-080415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 072030 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 330 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

DISCUSSION.

Mid clouds from the exiting weak shortwave today will continue to exit as well, but there will be plenty of cirrus overnight. That along with strengthening southerly flow will keep temperatures mostly in the upper 20s for lows which will probably be a few degrees warmer than MOS guidance.

Good surge of low level moisture will bring overcast stratus to much of the area through the morning. That surge of low level moisture is on a 40-50 kt 850 jet which will bring gusty southerly winds that should get as high as 30 mph. Very little forcing during the day on Sunday so plan to leave it dry during the daytime hours.

By Sunday evening, the forcing starts to increase reaching a peak after 06z Monday morning through about 15-18z Monday. All of the traditional features are in place but none of them are anything more than moderate in strength. There is some jet contribution from the upper divergence from the right entrance of the eastern Canadian jet and the left exit region of the jet over the central U.S. There is decent deep Fgen, deformation, isentropic lift and theta-e advection. Outside of the peak window after 06z to 18z, these features are still there but just a little weaker which will lead to increasing rain showers Sunday evening, then numerous rain showers and areas of drizzle for Monday afternoon and evening.

Will be leaning toward the warmer guidance over the next two days. NAM MET MOS exhibiting its usual cool bias compare to other MOS and raw output from other models. Cold air starts to move into southeast MI Monday night so that snow will mix with any left over rain showers late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Then temperatures will be steady or slowly fall Tuesday as the cold air continues to move into the region.

With a couple of embedded shortwaves waves Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday in all of the models and Low level flow will be westerly with Lake Michigan open for lake effect clouds and snow showers. Will raise pops to a general chance pop for these two days given the uncertain timing of those shortwaves. The dry air and low inversion will probably limit those lake effect snow showers.

Then Thursday and Friday will be dry with moderate temperatures. Next system after that affects the area on Saturday and with a warmer air mass, will have a chance of rain and snow.

MARINE.

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will drift to New England tonight as low pressure forms along a cold front draped across western Lake Superior. This will strengthen the southwesterly gradient over the region. Warm advection in advance of the low will ramp up tonight with a 50+ kt low level jet moving in by Sunday morning. While a stable temperature profile over the lakes will prevent much of this energy from reaching the surface, gusts are still likely to reach gale force over central and northern Lake Huron where southwesterly fetch is maximized, with the highest winds forecast between 4am and 4pm on Sunday. A Gale Warning has been issued for this area, while Small Craft Advisories are in effect across Saginaw Bay and the Lake Huron nearshore waters for increased wave activity.

The cold front moves over Lake Huron by Sunday night and becomes nearly stationary as low pressure develops over the central Plains. This low will track northeast into the central Great Lakes on Monday, bringing widespread rain. Snow showers become more likely late Monday night as the low departs and ushers in a much colder air mass. Winds look to remain below gales at this time, but expect a fresh northwest wind and increased wave action, especially over the open waters of Lake Huron, on Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY.

There is an extended period of rainfall that will start Sunday evening and continue through Monday. Increased moisture transport will bring PWAT values nearing 0.8 inches into southeast Michigan as a low pressure system moves across Michigan. Local probability guidance suggest rainfall totals will approach a half inch. Higher totals will be possible if any training of heavier rainfall occurs over any location, but only a very small chance to exceed an inch. A transition to wintry mix will be possible if any precipitation lingers lingers long enough after the system passes off to the northeast late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Rainfall may lead to ponding of water in low-lying areas and small rises on area rivers.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1200 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

AVIATION .

Favorable aviation conditions through tonight. Mid clouds in place over southeast Michigan slowly peeling off to the east this evening, but high clouds likely persist tonight. Steady southerly winds around 10 knots (40 knot low level jet around 2000 feet) overnight advecting warmer and moist air from the south Sunday morning, eventually leading to an MVFR deck of clouds developing. Exact timing is uncertain, but somewhere in the 13-17z time frame. South- southwest winds continue to increase during the morning hours, with gusts of 20-25 knots expected.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet after 14z Sunday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LHZ362-363.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . RBP MARINE . TF HYDROLOGY . RBP AVIATION . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi37 min SE 9.9 G 20 32°F
KP58 20 mi26 min SSE 4.1 30°F 1027.9 hPa22°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi37 min S 8.9 G 14 32°F 1026.4 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi47 min S 7 G 9.9 31°F 35°F1027.5 hPa23°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi17 min S 16 G 18 33°F 1026.1 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi21 minS 710.00 miOvercast32°F24°F76%1026.7 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi26 minSSE 4 mi30°F21°F72%1027.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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NW7NW7NW4NW4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S6SW7SW7SW6S6S7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE3SE4SE6S4CalmCalmCalmNW6NW8N6N7N11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.