Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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Fxus63 kdtx 191947 afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit pontiac mi 347 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019 Discussion A deep upper level trough has pivoted into hudson bay leaving behind more quiescent flow. A broad cumulus field has flourished this afternoon over much of the CWA as favorable insolation has productively used residual low-level moisture within a well moistened and deepening bl. 12z dtx sounding analysis shows several inversions with the most important evident around 800 mb. Guidance has been persistent on advertising some isolated to scattered showers this evening, but with only weak forcing from a stalling cold front it will take some additional time to modified the lower portion of the sounding and break through the cap. 1000-1250 j kg of mlcape is about the maximum amount of instability present this evening with the best lobe remaining south of the m-59 corridor. 18z hrrr, 12z arw, and 12z nmm have all been too bullish given the lack of WSR-88D z returns and warm cloud tops. Looking to the upper levels for better forcing yields limited results as the core of a h5 jet is displaced, currently residing over the upper peninsula. There appears to be a couple very low amplitude shortwave ripples within the h7-h8 layer which will do little to enhance vertical motion. Any activity that does develop will tap into ebwd values in the 25-30 kt range which should allow for durations longer than just pop-ups along primarily zonal flow. Temps appear on track for highs in the mid 80s today with elevated dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Setup appears only marginally more favorable on Tuesday as an mcs dives into the wabash river valley at the start of day 2 and splits off with the northern portion of the line working into lower michigan with the potential for redevelopment within the 21-06z timeframe. H5 guidance is growing more consistent with simulating a convectively induced shortwave with favorable PVA moving along the mi oh border. This will coincide with 0-3 km MAX thetae values in above 355 k for the southern counties supplying sufficient moisture as dewpoints climb into the low 70s along the i-94 corridor with pwat values exceeding 1.75 inches. Instability varies widely with a spread between the ECMWF and NAM ranging from 1200-2400 j kg respectively. Wednesday will be hot and muggy again with heat index values in the low 90s across the metro area by late afternoon. Any shower activity from Tuesday night will clear out by sunrise in preparation for another day of scattered convection. Somewhat better jet dynamics in the vicinity for Wednesday evening as a trough deepens into the great lakes, but the feature is not currently progged to dig quite far enough to capitalize on the reaming axis of instability that will be drifting off toward the east. A surface low will transect the area with an attendant cold front forcing a line of showers storms south of the tri-cities area. Still a bit far out to nail down timing specifics which will be an important factor in determining alignment with maximum destabilization. Temperatures will begin to cool down overnight as NW flow behind the front brings temps and dewpoints down. Large upper closed low over quebec will be slow to move eastward keeping the great lakes in a cooler northwest flow Thursday and Friday. Cold air aloft will lead to afternoon and evening diurnal

clouds but airmass will be too dry to produce any showers. Highs both days mainly low to mid 70s with lows low to mid 50s. Mid level heights will rise for the weekend along with warmer air on southerly return flow from departing high pressure. This should help highs reach near 80 but dewpoints remaining in the 50s will continue low humidity and very little in the way of daytime clouds. Next shot for showers which will be slight comes Monday as a cold front settles down into the northern great lakes. Increasing warm air advection ahead of the front will push temperatures into the lower 80s. Marine Light winds and low waves through the remainder of today as a weak high pressure moves across the central great lakes. High pressure will move east tomorrow bringing light south to southeast winds. A cold front is then expected to move through the central great lakes on Wednesday. This will bring a push of cooler air late in the day on Wednesday into Thursday. Winds will be out of the northwest at 15- 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots across lake huron. Winds decrease by Thursday afternoon and turn more more northerly late Thursday into Friday. Prev discussion Issued at 212 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019 aviation... vfr conditions will prevail through this afternoon and evening. The sct-bkn cumulus field will hold in low endVFR. General light southerly flow will be across the metro terminals with w-sw flow from ptk northward. Winds may become variable at times. Surface moisture holding over the area will bring potential for fog low stratus development early tomorrow morning while a frontal boundary lingers across central michigan. Most likely terminals to be affected by MVFR vsbys will be ptk and southward. Less confidence in patchy fog from fnt and northward. For dtw... .Ceilings will hold at or below 5000 feet through the remainder of the afternoon. Early tomorrow morning will bring potential for fog low stratus across dtw. Most likely possibility will be MVFR vsbys with a low chance for some ifr conditions. Dtw threshold probabilities... * high in ceilings at or below 5000 ft today. * low for ceiling heights of less than 200ft and or visibilities of less than 1 2ft early Tuesday morning. Dtx watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lake huron... None. Lake st clair... None. Michigan waters of lake erie... None. Discussion... Kk drc marine... ... .Aa aviation... ..Aa you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online at

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	19 mi	71 min	SSE 8 G 9.9	73°F			1017.3 hPa
KP58	20 mi	60 min	ESE 9.9	74°F			1016.3 hPa	58°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	21 mi	71 min	S 7 G 13	76°F			1017.3 hPa
45163	23 mi	31 min	SE 5.8 G 7.8	78°F	75°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI	31 mi	51 min	SE 8 G 9.9	71°F	73°F		1017.6 hPa (-0.3)	56°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	33 mi	51 min	E 4.1 G 6	74°F			1016.3 hPa (-0.6)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI	44 mi	31 min	S 5.8 G 5.8	71°F	70°F		1017.5 hPa	56°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI	19 mi	71 min	W 3	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	80°F	54°F	42%	1017.3 hPa
Port Hope, MI	20 mi	60 min	ESE 10	mi		74°F	57°F	57%	1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.