Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDTX 290952 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 552 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

AVIATION.

Skies will be a bit chaotic to start the day as residual low level moisture is showing up as sub 2kft SCT observations around the area. In addition there is a layer of cirrus and a plum of moisture coming inland off Lake Michigan around 5-7kft. All in all we are looking at VFR through most of the period. Stratocu will fill in this afternoon as a convergent band works across lower MI. Best chance of diurnal showers is north of PTK. Better forcing creating more widespread showers will arrive later tonight working from west to east. DTW looks to be on the southern edge of this forcing so may stay dry til later on Wednesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High for cigs less than 5000 ft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

DISCUSSION .

High amplitude troughing now entrenched throughout the central U.S. will take an increasing hold of local conditions this forecast period. Southeast Michigan will maintain a position within the immediately downstream flank of the mean trough axis today, leaving low to mid level southwest flow to govern conditions during the daylight period. Resident thermal profile generally characterized as seasonable by late September standards - little noted thermal advection and prospects for some peaks of sun affording modest diurnal temperature recovery. Highs generally mid 60s. An area of convergence will emerge late today, as the pressure gradient responds to height falls associated with the inbound trough axis. Moisture quality likely proves too limited to support a greater response, but the underlying ascent within a steep lapse rate environment held during peak heating may support a few showers from the Flint area northward into the Saginaw Valley/northern thumb late afternoon and evening.

Upper trough axis pivots into the area tonight, the eastward movement aided by strong shortwave energy now noted over western Quebec digging southeast into the existing height fall center. The combination of increasing cva and deeper layer, albeit modest cold air advection will maintain the chance for shower production this period, primarily M-59 corridor northward. A deeper layer of cold, moist cyclonic flow derived from the resident upper trough axis will then define conditions Wednesday. This steep lapse rate environment will yield the usual higher coverage of stratocumulus, while maintaining the potential for periodic shower development. Greatest window for rainfall will exist from mid afternoon into the evening hours, focused within another period of stronger cold air advection and an accompanying increase in downstream moisture flux off lake Michigan as overlake instability grows. A scattered to numerous coverage of showers likely during this time. The strongest updrafts may offer a few instances of lightning, small hail and gusty winds given the magnitude of lapse rates, suppressed freezing levels and a very dry sub-cloud layer.

A similarly unsettled environment will exist Thursday, as a period of even stronger cold air advection arrives during the back half of daytime heating. The underlying deep layer ascent and overall thermodynamic profile again points to a scattered to numerous coverage of late day showers. Highs Thursday struggling to climb out of the 50s. Prolonged period of cold air advection as deeper northwest flow takes hold continues into Thursday night, allowing 850 mb temperatures to near the freezing mark by Friday morning.

Conditions Friday into the upcoming weekend remain governed by high amplitude troughing. Stretch of well below normal temperatures entrenched during this period - daytime highs solidly in the 50s. Coldest conditions likely noted Saturday morning as high pressure slips across the region, allowing lows to dip well into the 30s most locations.

MARINE .

Low pressure departed the Great Lakes this morning, lifting north toward James Bay today. A tightened pressure gradient remains in place for the next few days as broad upper level troughing begins to take hold of the region. Winds will remain out of the west to southwest in the 15 to 20 kt range through the midweek period. Today should be mostly dry, but periodic showers returns to the lakes on Wednesday as another cold front pushes in. A much cooler air mass filtering in for the late week will bring a chance for waterspouts, especially over Lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DRK DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	19 mi	26 min	SW 14 G 18	54°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	21 mi	26 min	WSW 4.1 G 8	51°F			1009.5 hPa
45163	23 mi	26 min	WSW 14 G 16	56°F		2 ft
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI	31 mi	48 min	SW 12 G 15	51°F	59°F		1008.8 hPa	49°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	33 mi	66 min	SW 18 G 20	54°F			1009.1 hPa (+2.0)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI	44 mi	26 min	WSW 16 G 19	57°F	60°F		1008.8 hPa	54°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

Last 24hr

N9 G13

N8 G12

NW4 G8

NW4 G7

NW3 G6

NW3 G7

NW9

NW8

NW8 G12

NW6 G9

W5

W5

SW6

SW8 G12

SW8

SW9 G12

SW9 G12

SW9 G12

W8 G11

SW9

W9

SW8

SW7 G10

SW9 G12

1 day ago

SW12 G20

SW11 G14

SW13 G18

SW11 G16

SW10 G13

SW7

SE13

SE8 G11

SW5 G8

N1

SW5

W6

SW6

E4

NW3

W2

NW2

NW5 G8

N11

NW4 G7

NW4 G7

N7

NW5 G10

NW7 G15

2 days ago

S6 G9

SW11 G16

SW14 G20

SW13 G23

S16 G22

S10 G13

S11 G15

SW13 G20

SW12 G16

SE13

S9

S10

S12 G17

S9 G14

S11 G14

S14 G18

SW11 G17

SW12 G17

SW15 G19

SW15

SW12 G18

SW12 G20

SW14 G18

SW12 G17

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI	19 mi	71 min	SW 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	50°F	50°F	99%	1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

Last 24hr

NW8

NW4

Calm

N3

W5

NW5

NW10

NW6

W5

W4

Calm

SW5

SW4

SW5

SW8

SW7

SW7

SW8

SW8

SW6

SW6

W6

SW5

SW6

1 day ago

SW14 G20

SW12 G18

SW13 G19

SW11 G20

W7 G16

SW5

SW5

SW7

SW4

S4

S4

SE4

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

N3

Calm

Calm

N3

NW9

N7

NW9

2 days ago

SW12 G17

SW12 G18

S11 G18

S14 G19

S11 G19

S7 G18

S9 G18

S12 G20

S8

S6

SE6

SE8

S10 G19

S14 G20

S15 G20

S15 G19

SW10 G16

SW10 G17

SW11 G16

S12 G17

S11

S11 G15

SW10 G16

SW12

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. . NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.