Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 072030 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 330 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

DISCUSSION.

Mid clouds from the exiting weak shortwave today will continue to exit as well, but there will be plenty of cirrus overnight. That along with strengthening southerly flow will keep temperatures mostly in the upper 20s for lows which will probably be a few degrees warmer than MOS guidance.

Good surge of low level moisture will bring overcast stratus to much of the area through the morning. That surge of low level moisture is on a 40-50 kt 850 jet which will bring gusty southerly winds that should get as high as 30 mph. Very little forcing during the day on Sunday so plan to leave it dry during the daytime hours.

By Sunday evening, the forcing starts to increase reaching a peak after 06z Monday morning through about 15-18z Monday. All of the traditional features are in place but none of them are anything more than moderate in strength. There is some jet contribution from the upper divergence from the right entrance of the eastern Canadian jet and the left exit region of the jet over the central U.S. There is decent deep Fgen, deformation, isentropic lift and theta-e advection. Outside of the peak window after 06z to 18z, these features are still there but just a little weaker which will lead to increasing rain showers Sunday evening, then numerous rain showers and areas of drizzle for Monday afternoon and evening.

Will be leaning toward the warmer guidance over the next two days. NAM MET MOS exhibiting its usual cool bias compare to other MOS and raw output from other models. Cold air starts to move into southeast MI Monday night so that snow will mix with any left over rain showers late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Then temperatures will be steady or slowly fall Tuesday as the cold air continues to move into the region.

With a couple of embedded shortwaves waves Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday in all of the models and Low level flow will be westerly with Lake Michigan open for lake effect clouds and snow showers. Will raise pops to a general chance pop for these two days given the uncertain timing of those shortwaves. The dry air and low inversion will probably limit those lake effect snow showers.

Then Thursday and Friday will be dry with moderate temperatures. Next system after that affects the area on Saturday and with a warmer air mass, will have a chance of rain and snow.

MARINE.

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will drift to New England tonight as low pressure forms along a cold front draped across western Lake Superior. This will strengthen the southwesterly gradient over the region. Warm advection in advance of the low will ramp up tonight with a 50+ kt low level jet moving in by Sunday morning. While a stable temperature profile over the lakes will prevent much of this energy from reaching the surface, gusts are still likely to reach gale force over central and northern Lake Huron where southwesterly fetch is maximized, with the highest winds forecast between 4am and 4pm on Sunday. A Gale Warning has been issued for this area, while Small Craft Advisories are in effect across Saginaw Bay and the Lake Huron nearshore waters for increased wave activity.

The cold front moves over Lake Huron by Sunday night and becomes nearly stationary as low pressure develops over the central Plains. This low will track northeast into the central Great Lakes on Monday, bringing widespread rain. Snow showers become more likely late Monday night as the low departs and ushers in a much colder air mass. Winds look to remain below gales at this time, but expect a fresh northwest wind and increased wave action, especially over the open waters of Lake Huron, on Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY.

There is an extended period of rainfall that will start Sunday evening and continue through Monday. Increased moisture transport will bring PWAT values nearing 0.8 inches into southeast Michigan as a low pressure system moves across Michigan. Local probability guidance suggest rainfall totals will approach a half inch. Higher totals will be possible if any training of heavier rainfall occurs over any location, but only a very small chance to exceed an inch. A transition to wintry mix will be possible if any precipitation lingers lingers long enough after the system passes off to the northeast late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Rainfall may lead to ponding of water in low-lying areas and small rises on area rivers.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1200 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

AVIATION .

Favorable aviation conditions through tonight. Mid clouds in place over southeast Michigan slowly peeling off to the east this evening, but high clouds likely persist tonight. Steady southerly winds around 10 knots (40 knot low level jet around 2000 feet) overnight advecting warmer and moist air from the south Sunday morning, eventually leading to an MVFR deck of clouds developing. Exact timing is uncertain, but somewhere in the 13-17z time frame. South- southwest winds continue to increase during the morning hours, with gusts of 20-25 knots expected.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet after 14z Sunday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LHZ362-363.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . RBP MARINE . TF HYDROLOGY . RBP AVIATION . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	19 mi	37 min	SE 9.9 G 20	32°F
KP58	20 mi	26 min	SSE 4.1	30°F			1027.9 hPa	22°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	21 mi	37 min	S 8.9 G 14	32°F			1026.4 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI	31 mi	47 min	S 7 G 9.9	31°F	35°F		1027.5 hPa	23°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	33 mi	17 min	S 16 G 18	33°F			1026.1 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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NW12 G17

NW7 G12

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NW7 G11

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NW6 G10

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NW5 G8

NW4 G7

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SW2 G5

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2 days ago

NW10 G13

NW11 G15

NW12 G17

NW10 G16

NW12 G15

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NW6 G9

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NW13 G20

NW15 G23

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NW12 G16

NW11 G16

NW9 G12

NW7 G12

W7

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI	19 mi	21 min	S 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	32°F	24°F	76%	1026.7 hPa
Port Hope, MI	20 mi	26 min	SSE 4	mi		30°F	21°F	72%	1027.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)

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NW9 G18

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N11 G15

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NW13 G19

NW15 G21

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NW11 G14

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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