Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 8:02PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 12:31 PM EDT (16:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 1:20AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 948 Am Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
Rest of today..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the northwest in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:202003312145;;355132 FZUS53 KDTX 311348 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 948 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-312145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 311435 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1035 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

UPDATE.

The morning update nudges POPs upward a little more into the chance/scattered category for this afternoon. This is based on recent trends in model data and keeping in mind how things turned out yesterday during afternoon peak warming. The setup is similar today with a segment of the upper level trough lingering over Lower Michigan to provide some weak vertical motion support. Daytime warming on the last day of March does the rest by generating weak instability within the low levels that show steeper lapse rate and a moist low level profile in models soundings. The end result is another round of scattered rain showers mainly inland from the shorelines that last into early evening before diminishing after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 552 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

AVIATION .

Low stratus remains in place through the day as a midlevel shortwave trough pivots overhead and plenty of moisture lingers in the boundary layer. Light north winds shift to a more northeasterly direction this morning which helps advect additional low-level moisture in from Lake Huron. mbS and FNT stand the best chance at periods of IFR ceilings this morning. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings prevail through the TAF period with heights predominantly below 2000 ft. Intermittent light showers/sprinkles will dot the region this afternoon and evening but should be of little consequence.

For DTW . NE wind this afternoon flirts with the 7 kt noise abatement threshold but is expected to stay generally below.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through today.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

DISCUSSION .

Upper low pressure will continue to shear eastward today, but lagging upper trough (enhanced by shortwave passing to the south) will maintain grungy weather conditions with cloudy skies and high temperatures in the 40s. These conditions will hold into Wednesday as well as some phasing occurs with remaining shortwave energy over the northeast CONUS and shortwave passing through the southern Ohio Valley around the base of the elongated upper trough/low over the Great Lakes/northeast. This process will delay the arrival of upper ridging which promises to bring improved conditions late in the week.

The transition from upper troughing to the translation of this upper ridge into the area will occur late Wednesday into Thursday with extensive cloud cover already beginning to breakup to some degree during the day Wednesday. Partly/mostly clear skies will accompany upper riding Thursday/Friday with temperatures climbing well into the 50s in most locations by that point in the week.

In the meantime, upper trough over western Canada/Pacific Northwest will be expanding eastward over the northern rockies, northern plains and Prairie Provinces. Jet energy will race around this upper trough and push a shortwave and attending weak surface cold front or trough through the area by Saturday. This will bring a chance of rain showers with its passage with just scattered showers expected at this time.

Temperatures really do not cool down with the passage of this feature early in the weekend given the amount of moderate Pacific air that translates east into the area around the base of retreating area of polar air over southern/central Canada. Will maintain highs in the 50s to around 60 into Sunday and on into early next week. Any shower activity post fropa will be very isolated in nature to end this forecast period Sunday/Monday.

MARINE .

Northerly winds will decrease slightly today while veering to the northeast this afternoon as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. Winds will remain relatively light from a northerly component through the end of the week as high pressure will remain in control.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



UPDATE . BT AVIATION . TF DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi52 min NNE 15 G 18 36°F
KP58 20 mi41 min NNE 8 38°F 1017.6 hPa36°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi86 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi32 min NE 18 G 21 37°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G11
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SE6
G9
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi37 minNE 810.00 miOvercast39°F37°F97%1016.9 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi41 minNNE 8 mi38°F36°F93%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
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N7N7N10N9N7N10N12
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N8N7NW5NW6N7N9N6N8N10NE10NE11
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1 day agoSW18
G27
SW15
G29
W12
G21
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G28
SW18
G26
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G27
SW14
G25
SW17
G22
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G23
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W14
G21
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G22
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G22
W11
G18
W12
G16
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G16
W9W9
G14
W8
G17
NW9
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W9
G14
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G14
2 days agoNE8E6NE6NE6NE6NE6NE4NE4E5SE6SE7
G14
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SE8SE11
G15
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G17
SE10
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SE8S9S10S8SW10
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.