Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:21PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 10:06 AM EDT (14:06 UTC) Moonrise 5:53PMMoonset 3:56AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 943 Am Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:202009292115;;544743 FZUS53 KDTX 291343 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 943 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-292115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 290952 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 552 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

AVIATION.

Skies will be a bit chaotic to start the day as residual low level moisture is showing up as sub 2kft SCT observations around the area. In addition there is a layer of cirrus and a plum of moisture coming inland off Lake Michigan around 5-7kft. All in all we are looking at VFR through most of the period. Stratocu will fill in this afternoon as a convergent band works across lower MI. Best chance of diurnal showers is north of PTK. Better forcing creating more widespread showers will arrive later tonight working from west to east. DTW looks to be on the southern edge of this forcing so may stay dry til later on Wednesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High for cigs less than 5000 ft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

DISCUSSION .

High amplitude troughing now entrenched throughout the central U.S. will take an increasing hold of local conditions this forecast period. Southeast Michigan will maintain a position within the immediately downstream flank of the mean trough axis today, leaving low to mid level southwest flow to govern conditions during the daylight period. Resident thermal profile generally characterized as seasonable by late September standards - little noted thermal advection and prospects for some peaks of sun affording modest diurnal temperature recovery. Highs generally mid 60s. An area of convergence will emerge late today, as the pressure gradient responds to height falls associated with the inbound trough axis. Moisture quality likely proves too limited to support a greater response, but the underlying ascent within a steep lapse rate environment held during peak heating may support a few showers from the Flint area northward into the Saginaw Valley/northern thumb late afternoon and evening.

Upper trough axis pivots into the area tonight, the eastward movement aided by strong shortwave energy now noted over western Quebec digging southeast into the existing height fall center. The combination of increasing cva and deeper layer, albeit modest cold air advection will maintain the chance for shower production this period, primarily M-59 corridor northward. A deeper layer of cold, moist cyclonic flow derived from the resident upper trough axis will then define conditions Wednesday. This steep lapse rate environment will yield the usual higher coverage of stratocumulus, while maintaining the potential for periodic shower development. Greatest window for rainfall will exist from mid afternoon into the evening hours, focused within another period of stronger cold air advection and an accompanying increase in downstream moisture flux off lake Michigan as overlake instability grows. A scattered to numerous coverage of showers likely during this time. The strongest updrafts may offer a few instances of lightning, small hail and gusty winds given the magnitude of lapse rates, suppressed freezing levels and a very dry sub-cloud layer.

A similarly unsettled environment will exist Thursday, as a period of even stronger cold air advection arrives during the back half of daytime heating. The underlying deep layer ascent and overall thermodynamic profile again points to a scattered to numerous coverage of late day showers. Highs Thursday struggling to climb out of the 50s. Prolonged period of cold air advection as deeper northwest flow takes hold continues into Thursday night, allowing 850 mb temperatures to near the freezing mark by Friday morning.

Conditions Friday into the upcoming weekend remain governed by high amplitude troughing. Stretch of well below normal temperatures entrenched during this period - daytime highs solidly in the 50s. Coldest conditions likely noted Saturday morning as high pressure slips across the region, allowing lows to dip well into the 30s most locations.

MARINE .

Low pressure departed the Great Lakes this morning, lifting north toward James Bay today. A tightened pressure gradient remains in place for the next few days as broad upper level troughing begins to take hold of the region. Winds will remain out of the west to southwest in the 15 to 20 kt range through the midweek period. Today should be mostly dry, but periodic showers returns to the lakes on Wednesday as another cold front pushes in. A much cooler air mass filtering in for the late week will bring a chance for waterspouts, especially over Lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DRK DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi26 min SW 14 G 18 54°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi26 min WSW 4.1 G 8 51°F 1009.5 hPa
45163 23 mi26 min WSW 14 G 16 56°F 2 ft
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi48 min SW 12 G 15 51°F 59°F1008.8 hPa49°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi66 min SW 18 G 20 54°F 1009.1 hPa (+2.0)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 44 mi26 min WSW 16 G 19 57°F 60°F1008.8 hPa54°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi71 minSW 710.00 miOvercast50°F50°F99%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW4CalmN3W5NW5NW10NW6W5W4CalmSW5SW4SW5SW8SW7SW7SW8SW8SW6SW6W6SW5SW6
1 day agoSW14
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SW5SW5SW7SW4S4S4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3NW9N7NW9
2 days agoSW12
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S8S6SE6SE8S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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