Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:35PM Monday August 19, 2019 4:50 PM EDT (20:50 UTC) Moonrise 9:44PMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 350 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southwest early in the morning. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201908200300;;480107 FZUS53 KDTX 191953 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-200300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191947
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
347 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Discussion
A deep upper level trough has pivoted into hudson bay leaving behind
more quiescent flow. A broad cumulus field has flourished this
afternoon over much of the CWA as favorable insolation has
productively used residual low-level moisture within a well
moistened and deepening bl. 12z dtx sounding analysis shows several
inversions with the most important evident around 800 mb. Guidance
has been persistent on advertising some isolated to scattered
showers this evening, but with only weak forcing from a stalling
cold front it will take some additional time to modified the lower
portion of the sounding and break through the cap. 1000-1250 j kg of
mlcape is about the maximum amount of instability present this
evening with the best lobe remaining south of the m-59 corridor. 18z
hrrr, 12z arw, and 12z nmm have all been too bullish given the lack
of WSR-88D z returns and warm cloud tops. Looking to the upper
levels for better forcing yields limited results as the core of a h5
jet is displaced, currently residing over the upper peninsula. There
appears to be a couple very low amplitude shortwave ripples within
the h7-h8 layer which will do little to enhance vertical motion. Any
activity that does develop will tap into ebwd values in the 25-30 kt
range which should allow for durations longer than just pop-ups
along primarily zonal flow. Temps appear on track for highs in the
mid 80s today with elevated dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Setup appears only marginally more favorable on Tuesday as an mcs
dives into the wabash river valley at the start of day 2 and splits
off with the northern portion of the line working into lower
michigan with the potential for redevelopment within the 21-06z
timeframe. H5 guidance is growing more consistent with simulating a
convectively induced shortwave with favorable PVA moving along the
mi oh border. This will coincide with 0-3 km MAX thetae values in
above 355 k for the southern counties supplying sufficient moisture
as dewpoints climb into the low 70s along the i-94 corridor with
pwat values exceeding 1.75 inches. Instability varies widely with a
spread between the ECMWF and NAM ranging from 1200-2400 j kg
respectively.

Wednesday will be hot and muggy again with heat index values in the
low 90s across the metro area by late afternoon. Any shower activity
from Tuesday night will clear out by sunrise in preparation for
another day of scattered convection. Somewhat better jet dynamics in
the vicinity for Wednesday evening as a trough deepens into the
great lakes, but the feature is not currently progged to dig quite
far enough to capitalize on the reaming axis of instability that
will be drifting off toward the east. A surface low will transect
the area with an attendant cold front forcing a line of
showers storms south of the tri-cities area. Still a bit far out to
nail down timing specifics which will be an important factor in
determining alignment with maximum destabilization. Temperatures
will begin to cool down overnight as NW flow behind the front brings
temps and dewpoints down.

Large upper closed low over quebec will be slow to move eastward
keeping the great lakes in a cooler northwest flow Thursday and
Friday. Cold air aloft will lead to afternoon and evening diurnal
clouds but airmass will be too dry to produce any showers. Highs
both days mainly low to mid 70s with lows low to mid 50s. Mid level
heights will rise for the weekend along with warmer air on southerly
return flow from departing high pressure. This should help highs
reach near 80 but dewpoints remaining in the 50s will continue low
humidity and very little in the way of daytime clouds. Next shot
for showers which will be slight comes Monday as a cold front
settles down into the northern great lakes. Increasing warm air
advection ahead of the front will push temperatures into the lower
80s.

Marine
Light winds and low waves through the remainder of today as a weak
high pressure moves across the central great lakes. High pressure
will move east tomorrow bringing light south to southeast winds. A
cold front is then expected to move through the central great lakes
on Wednesday. This will bring a push of cooler air late in the day
on Wednesday into Thursday. Winds will be out of the northwest at 15-
20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots across lake huron. Winds
decrease by Thursday afternoon and turn more more northerly late
Thursday into Friday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 212 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through this afternoon and evening. The
sct-bkn cumulus field will hold in low endVFR. General light
southerly flow will be across the metro terminals with w-sw flow
from ptk northward. Winds may become variable at times. Surface
moisture holding over the area will bring potential for fog low
stratus development early tomorrow morning while a frontal boundary
lingers across central michigan. Most likely terminals to be affected
by MVFR vsbys will be ptk and southward. Less confidence in patchy
fog from fnt and northward.

For dtw... .Ceilings will hold at or below 5000 feet through the
remainder of the afternoon. Early tomorrow morning will bring
potential for fog low stratus across dtw. Most likely possibility
will be MVFR vsbys with a low chance for some ifr conditions.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings at or below 5000 ft today.

* low for ceiling heights of less than 200ft and or visibilities of
less than 1 2ft early Tuesday morning.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Kk drc
marine... ... .Aa
aviation... ..Aa
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi71 min SSE 8 G 9.9 73°F 1017.3 hPa
KP58 20 mi60 min ESE 9.9 74°F 1016.3 hPa58°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi71 min S 7 G 13 76°F 1017.3 hPa
45163 23 mi31 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 75°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi51 min SE 8 G 9.9 71°F 73°F1017.6 hPa (-0.3)56°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi51 min E 4.1 G 6 74°F 1016.3 hPa (-0.6)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 44 mi31 min S 5.8 G 5.8 71°F 70°F1017.5 hPa56°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi71 minW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F54°F42%1017.3 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi60 minESE 10 mi74°F57°F57%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10
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S6SW6SW6SW7W6W4SW5SE4SW5SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmN4------SW4SW3N6SE4SW3
1 day agoW6W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SE4SE5CalmSE4--SE4S8S8S9SW8
G18
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CalmSE8
2 days agoCalmW3CalmSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE7SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.