Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:24PM Sunday April 18, 2021 4:59 PM EDT (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:39AMMoonset 12:58AM Illumination 43% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 336 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the south after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of rain in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:202104190315;;755679 FZUS53 KDTX 181936 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 336 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-190315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 181928 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 328 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

DISCUSSION.

During the night, Se Mi will remain between a northern stream trough rotating into Lake Superior and a short wave feature rippling across the TN Valley. There is a pocket of higher mid level moisture now advancing into srn Lake Mi that will move across the forecast area tonight. Steep lapse rates within 850-600mb layer may support a few light showers out of this moisture. Ample dry air below 800mb will likely limit any precip to trace amounts, so nothing more than a 10pct chance of rain looks justified tonight. A southwest gradient will develop overnight which along the periodic clouds will limit the degree of radiational cooling despite the very dry boundary layer, supporting min temps in the mid 30s (thumb) to low 40s (metro Detroit).

The southwest flow will further strengthen into the day Monday in advance of a cold front moving in from the northwest. This front will be driven to the south in response to the deepening of the aforementioned northern stream trough as is slides across Lake Superior. Prefrontal warming will push temps well into the 50s and low 60s across Se Mi Monday amidst gusty west-southwest winds. The cold front will traverse the forecast area during the afternoon. Exit region jet dynamics within a 100kt upper jet max over Wi/NW Lower Mi will drive an increase in low to mid level frontogenesis across Se Mi Mon afternoon/evening, supporting a good chance for some light rain. What will be most impactful is the post frontal cold air advection as continued deepening of the northern stream trough drives unseasonably cold air into srn Mi, with 850mb temps forecast to drop to -10C over central Lower Mi by Tuesday morning. Low level cold air advection will last into the day Tuesday, leading to a very cold day with highs possibly stuck in the 30s or low 40s.

As for the potential for accumulating snow late Tues/Tues night, note that there is a lot of variability among the model solution space. So at this time it is important not to latch onto one particular solution too closely. Key features of interest will be short wave impulses emerging out of the nrn/cnrl Rockies and north central Canada and amplifying across the Upper Midwest Mon night and Tuesday. A redevelopment of an upper jet max to the northeast of Lower Mi will result in a reintensification of the low to mid level frontal forcing on the cold side of the aforementioned sfc cold front. The reorientation of the height field and increasing upper divergence will drive better ascent along the isentropic surfaces within the frontal zone. A deep layer of low static stability and some conditional elevated instability aloft and specific humidity of 4-5 g/kg being transported up the frontal slope will result in a swath of high intensity snowfall rates on the cold side of the front Tues aftn/Tues night.

While the amplification of the trough upstream and approach of a lead short wave from the southwest will help drive the elevated portion of the front back to the north, there is uncertainty as to how far north and where along the frontal slope will the meso scale forcing becomes more dominate. The NAM remains quite bullish with forcing andQPF centered right over Se Mi, with such a cold airmass suggestive of a bonafide late season snow storm over portions of Se Mi. The UKMET, Canadian, GFS and the Euro have however trended farther southeast with the better forcing; anywhere from metro Detroit to NW Ohio. Considering the warm ground temps, even high snowfall rates into a relatively cold nocturnal boundary layer may struggle to produce 10:1 SLR values. So in light of these factors, the forecast will nudge the better accumulating snow potential a little south (south of an Owosso to Sandusky line) with forecast amounts in the 2 to 5 inch range assuming total liquid QPF of .6 inches or less. It is expected that there will be additional forecast adjustments over the next couple forecast cycles.

The departure of the deep layer frontal system to east late Tues night will sustain unseasonably cold air across the region into Thursday before a moderating trend commences. This will pose the risk of a hard freeze both Tues night and Wed night.

MARINE.

Diffuse high pressure will maintain quieter marine conditions through early Monday morning with loosely organized flow turning more southerly starting late tonight. More active marine conditions will move in from north to south mid-Monday morning into late Monday evening along and behind an advancing cold front, which will bring active weather along with increasing wind and wave trends. Westerly flow behind the front will bring the strongest wind potential to northern Lake Huron, where gusts on the order of 25 to 30 knots will be likely. Periods of gales will be possible centered Monday evening into early Tuesday morning across northern Lake Huron, but given the warmer April water, confidence remains low regarding the temporal extent of gales. Will preclude the issuance of a Gale Warning at this time, but will re-evaluate for the late night update. Otherwise, gust potential is expected to remain below gale thresholds for the remaining open water areas with gusts increasing into the 20 to 25 knot range throughout Monday. Rain showers will be likely along the front, but the advancing colder air will cause an eventual transition to snow by late Tuesday into Wednesday, especially for southern Lake Huron and locations south.

HYDROLOGY.

Low pressure lifting northeastward along a cold front will drive heavy wet snow into portions of Southeast Michigan from Tuesday afternoon into late Tuesday night. There has been an overall southward trend in the axis of higher QPF. The latest model consensus generally carries a quarter inch up to six tenths of an inch south of an Owosso to Flint line.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

AVIATION .

VFR flying conditions will prevail through the TAF period as weak high pressure maintains its grasp over the airspace through tonight with mainly scattered to occasional broken coverage of mid/high clouds. Cold front passage towards 18z Monday will bring gradual increase and thickening of midlevel clouds late in the period down towards around 10 kft. Northwest winds around 10 knots this afternoon may occasionally gust 15-20 knots at times especially at KPTK and KFNT before briefly decoupling this evening and reemerging light out of the southwest overnight. Southwest winds then strengthen to around 15 knots ahead of the cold front Monday.

For DTW . Potential will exist for sporadic high-based showers to accompany cold front passage Monday afternoon, but coverage too low to even include a prob30 mention this far out.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . SC MARINE . AM HYDROLOGY . SC AVIATION . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi79 min SSE 15 G 15 49°F 1010.5 hPa
KP58 20 mi64 min ESE 9.9 43°F 1011.1 hPa37°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi79 min SE 12 G 15 49°F 1010.5 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi59 min SSE 7 G 8 39°F 46°F1010.3 hPa (-0.8)34°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi59 min SSE 8 G 8.9 51°F 1009.8 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi64 minWNW 810.00 miFair54°F32°F43%1010.5 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi64 minESE 10 mi43°F37°F80%1011.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5E5E6E7E4SE5CalmCalmE5CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN5NW5NW4W7W5W5N7
G14
W5NW5
1 day agoN6
G15
NE6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4CalmCalmCalmN4CalmNW3N5N4NW6NW4N5NW3W4Calm
2 days agoNW8N9N5N6N4NW5N14
G19
NW8NW7NW7NW9NW8NW8NW8NW11NW9
G15
NW8NW9--N8N5N6N4NE7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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