Monday, March8, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Veneta, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 6:11PM Monday March 8, 2021 7:25 AM PST (15:25 UTC) Moonrise 4:20AMMoonset 1:08PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:202103090115;;650635 Fzus56 Kpqr 081001 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 201 Am Pst Mon Mar 8 2021 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-090115- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 201 Am Pst Mon Mar 8 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Today..SE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by late morning. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 18 ft at 16 seconds, subsiding to 14 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 13 seconds. Showers likely and a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves se 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 12 seconds. Showers likely.
Tue night..E wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the evening. Wind waves E 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wed..NE wind 5 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 7 ft.
Fri..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 201 Am Pst Mon Mar 8 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Low pressure over the eastern pacific will sink south into the north california waters Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure returns on Wednesday and strengthens Thursday into Friday. High pressure continues into the weekend, before a cold front moves across the waters Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Veneta, OR
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location: 44.05, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 081131 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 331 AM PST Mon Mar 8 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure dropping south offshore will keep a threat of showers over the region through Wednesday. Upper level high pressure is expected to bring drier weather for much of Thursday through at least early Saturday. A trough will drop south from Alaska to bring precipitation chances back in the forecast at some point on Saturday, then cross the region through Monday.

SHORT TERM. Today through Wednesday Night . Upper level low pressure, now centered about 450 miles off the Vancouver Island Coast, has moved a (sarcastically) whopping 150 miles south over the last 24 hours. This has resulted in significant timing changes in the forecast for the next few days. To begin with, the initial cold front from yesterday morning has since fully occluded, wrapped around the low, and since dissipated. There is now an elongated area of unstable clouds stretching from Vancouver Island and south to off the Golden Gate that we suppose would best be called a developing cold front. Have seen plenty of lightning activity both along the north end of the front off the Olympic Peninsula as well as west of the front and rotating around the base of the closed low.

Models seem to have adapted to this new orientation and slower movement to the low. The new quasi-frontal boundary does appear to stay positioned just off the coast per the models, keeping most of the deeper convection with it. As such, am following their lead by maintaining showers over the broad area and also introducing a threat for thunderstorms mostly over our coastal waters today with storms continuing into tonight. Upper dynamic support for the over land showers seems much weaker than yesterday with the expectation that showers will be weaker and hail much more difficult to come by. The exception may be the coast south of Newport where the quasi- front could drift slightly further east this afternoon and evening to bring stronger showers and maybe a thunderstorm.

Tonight will again see the land showers dissipate in the evening as the sunsets, however, the upper low is currently progged to drift a little closer to shore as it makes a roughly 300 mile move to the south-southeast. This position again brings the CWA under better diffluent flow aloft with general shower activity potentially returning overnight along with a continued threat for nocturnal thunderstorms over the waters and along the central coast as a shortwave rotates northward overnight.

Tuesday will see the upper low center drift to off the SW Oregon coast. Usually a low becoming centered this far south means our area is out of the deeper convection threat. Am hesitant to fully buy in on that notion though as the low also appears to be elongating to the north as the center drifts south keeping diffluent flow overhead. This may be a case where the central and south valley see southerly flow and unstable conditions while the PDX Metro and northward areas start showery and then somewhat stabilize with time Tuesday.

Wednesday has a new wrinkle as the upper low will now be much closer to the south than was indicated 24 hours ago. Additionally, an upper trough with ties to the Canadian arctic will be pushing southwest across Alberta. This will destabilize the region again as it ties in to some of the lingering moisture rotating north around the still nearby closed low. Given multiple models have latched onto this, felt compelled to expand the shower coverage Wednesday. Again, showers likely dissipate near sunset.

Back to this morning, areas of low stratus have developed from radiational cooling given the breaks in higher clouds. Suspect this will only slightly delay the onset of showers today. However, do have concern this stratus will settle closer to the surface and result in patchy dense fog. WIll continue to monitor as adjust as needed. Do expect this scenario to potentially play out each night through the next few nights, especially assuming showers continue each day as expected. /JBonk

LONG TERM. Thursday through Sunday . Main change is again an overall delay to the dry period which will now see some lower end PoPs appear on a 24 hour delay to Thursday. Have added showers for mainly Lane County end of the forecast area, although, these showers may not even make it to the afternoon. Elsewhere, the dry period is expected to begin as high pressure gets pinched over our area between another trough dropping south from Alaska and north of the departing closed low to our south.

Operational models are now all in agreement as the ECMWF compromised toward the GFS solution with the approaching trough now slated to arrive sometime Saturday late afternoon or night. This trough will be substantially cooler than what we've seen with the current upper low. NBM snow levels based on wide ranging and tuned ensemble data brought overnight snow levels as low as 500 feet MSL. The operational runs, however, barely fall below 1500 feet during overnight hours Sunday and Monday. For now, have taken the NBM guidance but artificially boosted the low end overnight values closer to 1500 feet while keeping the daytime 2000-2500 ft values as is. Regardless, the lowest snow levels are slated to occur after the initial cold front and heaviest precipitation occurs. It should be said, the Cascades, higher foothills, and higher Coast Range appear to possibly receive several inches of snow sometime between late Saturday night and Sunday night, depending on the specific frontal arrival timing. /JBonk

AVIATION. At 11Z Monday, high clouds with cigs above 10 kft were occurring across northwest OR and far southwest WA. Patchy fog and low stratus with cigs in the 300-500 ft range had formed over the Cowlitz Valley where high clouds are thinner. Low stratus and fog has also moved down parts of the lower Columbia into Vancouver and KPDX early this morning. Fog and low stratus should scatter out by 16Z Monday and give way to VFR flight conditions through Monday evening. The main exception will be with passing showers expected this afternoon and evening, which will bring the potential for brief periods of MVFR cigs and lowered visibilities. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening into tonight, mainly along the central OR coast. If a thunderstorm does affect a TAF site, it would most likely be at KONP. Stronger showers or storms will have the potential to produce small hail and brief gusty winds. Confidence in exact timing for potential storms is too low to include a mention of it in the 12Z TAFs at this time. Model guidance suggests cigs will lower to 2000-3500 ft Monday night into Tuesday morning, but cloud cover should be scattered to broken rather than overcast.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Fog early Monday morning with broken cigs around 300 ft, becoming VFR by 16Z. VFR should then continue through at least Monday evening, with cigs potentially lowering to MVFR Monday night. Scattered showers this afternoon and evening will also bring the potential for brief periods of MVFR cigs. Small hail and brief gusty winds cannot be ruled out with stronger showers. -TK

MARINE. Westerly swell will remain elevated early this morning between 12 and 18 ft, highest over the outer waters. Expect seas to gradually decrease during the mid to late morning hours, falling to 10 to 12 ft by mid afternoon. Despite falling seas, southerly winds should increase a bit late this evening into tonight with gusts to 30 kt expected over the outer waters and gusts to 25 kt for the inner waters. Therefore, will maintain a Small Craft Advisory for winds and seas through Tuesday morning. In addition, the threat for sneaker waves will remain high along the coastline through Monday afternoon.

Model guidance suggests seas will fall to 7 to 9 ft Tuesday night with winds falling below 20 kt as weak high pressure begins to settle in. High pressure is expected to strengthen Wednesday into Friday, bringing a prolonged period of winds below 20 kt and seas in the 5 to 9 ft range. Benign conditions will continue into Saturday, before a cold front sweeps across the waters Saturday night into Sunday. -TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Monday for Columbia River Bar.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 54 mi55 min E 8.9 G 11 40°F 49°F1013.6 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 54 mi25 min S 6 G 8.9 41°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 66 mi29 min 49°F15 ft

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR8 mi31 minN 010.00 miOvercast35°F32°F89%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEUG

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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W9W53CalmCalmNE4CalmNW5NW5CalmN5N3NE3N5CalmN6CalmCalm
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2 days agoS8S6S6SW9SW6S7S10SW10S9SE12S10SE7SE9SE7SE7S5S7S5S4S4S6SE5S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Mon -- 02:30 AM PST     2.98 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:22 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:20 AM PST     6.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:11 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:55 PM PST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:14 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:41 PM PST     5.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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43.4333.54.25.266.46.45.84.83.42.10.90.1-0.20.21.12.23.54.55.15.2

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:35 AM PST     3.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:23 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM PST     7.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:11 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:00 PM PST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:14 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST     5.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.73.644.85.76.67.17.26.65.542.51.10.1-0.20.112.33.74.95.65.85.5

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