Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rapid City, SD
May 6, 2024 6:24 AM MDT (12:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:34 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 4:41 AM Moonset 6:41 PM |
Area Discussion for - Rapid City, SD
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KUNR 061100 AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 500 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-Very windy with a slight chance of stronger thunderstorms today.
-Very strong winds possible tonight and Tues across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and northwest SD.
-Unsettled and cool through mid week, then slowly warming.
DISCUSSION
(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024
09Z upper level analysis has strong closed low over southwest WY with 110kt jet rounding the base of the main trof. Showers and isolated storms are lifting north across the area at the moment.
At the surface, low pressure is located across southeast WY with in inverted trof extending into eastern MT. Strong southeast winds are present across the forecast area, with temperatures in the 50s.
Vigorous and complex system will affect the area for the next several days, as the upper low lifts across western SD, pinwheels through western ND, then finally shifts southeast by mid week.
Cool and unsettled conditions, along with a lot of wind, will be the main weather story for the next several days.
On the precip side of things, surface low pressure and associated trof will swing northeast across the area today. Along the trof, a few stronger storms are expected early this afternoon to the north and east of the Black Hills. Modest CAPE, good shear, and low level helicity could produce an isolated tornado with these storms. Threat is short lived as the trof shifts quickly northeast by late afternoon. More widespread rains will impact northeastern WY, the western portions of the Black Hills, and northwestern SD, as abundant moisture wraps around the backside of the low. Some light snow will be possible across the higher elevations of the Black Hills tonight into Tuesday night.
On the wind side of things, very windy conditions are expected with this very dynamic system. West to southwest winds will increase again today as the surface trof swings north of the area. Have issued a Wind Advisory for much of the SD plains starting at noon today with winds persisting into the evening. As the surface low and upper low become stacked tonight, winds could increase even more across parts of northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and northwestern SD. A High Wind Watch remains in affect for this evening into Tuesday.
Precip chances decrease on Tuesday as the system spins across western ND, but very windy conditions will persist across western SD, especially far northwest SD where Warning criteria winds will be possible. Upper low finally starts to weaken on Wednesday, as it tracks back southeast across central and eastern SD. Windy conditions will persist along with chances for showers and isolated thunder.
Drier and less windy conditions will slowly work back into the area late Thursday into Friday as weak high pressure slides into the area from the northwest. Temperatures will climb back into the 60s for Friday and Saturday, with some 70s returning for Sunday.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued At 455 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Moist, upslope flow will continue to impact the KRAP terminal with MVFR cigs expected through most of the TAF period. There could be a brief break to VFR early this afternoon as winds shift to the west.
Showers and storms are possible this morning, spreading eastward throughout the day. MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected with these showers and storms. Winds will shift out of the west- northwest throughout the day, with gusts 35-50 knots possible by early afternoon through the late evening hours. These strong winds will persist through the overnight hours.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-027-030>032-041>043-073>075-078.
High Wind Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for SDZ001-012-013-024>026-028>031-072>074-078.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening for SDZ044-046-047-049-076-077.
WY...High Wind Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for WYZ054-056-057-060.
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 500 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-Very windy with a slight chance of stronger thunderstorms today.
-Very strong winds possible tonight and Tues across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and northwest SD.
-Unsettled and cool through mid week, then slowly warming.
DISCUSSION
(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024
09Z upper level analysis has strong closed low over southwest WY with 110kt jet rounding the base of the main trof. Showers and isolated storms are lifting north across the area at the moment.
At the surface, low pressure is located across southeast WY with in inverted trof extending into eastern MT. Strong southeast winds are present across the forecast area, with temperatures in the 50s.
Vigorous and complex system will affect the area for the next several days, as the upper low lifts across western SD, pinwheels through western ND, then finally shifts southeast by mid week.
Cool and unsettled conditions, along with a lot of wind, will be the main weather story for the next several days.
On the precip side of things, surface low pressure and associated trof will swing northeast across the area today. Along the trof, a few stronger storms are expected early this afternoon to the north and east of the Black Hills. Modest CAPE, good shear, and low level helicity could produce an isolated tornado with these storms. Threat is short lived as the trof shifts quickly northeast by late afternoon. More widespread rains will impact northeastern WY, the western portions of the Black Hills, and northwestern SD, as abundant moisture wraps around the backside of the low. Some light snow will be possible across the higher elevations of the Black Hills tonight into Tuesday night.
On the wind side of things, very windy conditions are expected with this very dynamic system. West to southwest winds will increase again today as the surface trof swings north of the area. Have issued a Wind Advisory for much of the SD plains starting at noon today with winds persisting into the evening. As the surface low and upper low become stacked tonight, winds could increase even more across parts of northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and northwestern SD. A High Wind Watch remains in affect for this evening into Tuesday.
Precip chances decrease on Tuesday as the system spins across western ND, but very windy conditions will persist across western SD, especially far northwest SD where Warning criteria winds will be possible. Upper low finally starts to weaken on Wednesday, as it tracks back southeast across central and eastern SD. Windy conditions will persist along with chances for showers and isolated thunder.
Drier and less windy conditions will slowly work back into the area late Thursday into Friday as weak high pressure slides into the area from the northwest. Temperatures will climb back into the 60s for Friday and Saturday, with some 70s returning for Sunday.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued At 455 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Moist, upslope flow will continue to impact the KRAP terminal with MVFR cigs expected through most of the TAF period. There could be a brief break to VFR early this afternoon as winds shift to the west.
Showers and storms are possible this morning, spreading eastward throughout the day. MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected with these showers and storms. Winds will shift out of the west- northwest throughout the day, with gusts 35-50 knots possible by early afternoon through the late evening hours. These strong winds will persist through the overnight hours.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-027-030>032-041>043-073>075-078.
High Wind Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for SDZ001-012-013-024>026-028>031-072>074-078.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening for SDZ044-046-047-049-076-077.
WY...High Wind Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for WYZ054-056-057-060.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRAP RAPID CITY RGNL,SD | 9 sm | 22 min | ESE 15 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 54°F | 77% | 29.34 | |
| KRCA ELLSWORTH AFB,SD | 9 sm | 13 min | E 13 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 54°F | 88% | 29.31 |
Rapid City, SD,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE