Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manitowoc, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:39PM Monday August 26, 2019 5:10 AM CDT (10:10 UTC) Moonrise 1:24AMMoonset 5:08PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Expires:201908261615;;228909 Fzus53 Kgrb 260929 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 429 Am Cdt Mon Aug 26 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-261615- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 429 Am Cdt Mon Aug 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Today..SE wind 10 to 15 kts increasing to 15 to 25 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Scattered showers in the morning, then periods of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kts veering sw 10 to 20 kts after midnight. Waves building to 4 to 7 ft. Numerous showers in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers after midnight.
Tuesday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing.
Tuesday night..SW wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Mostly clear. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ543


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manitowoc, WI
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location: 44.09, -87.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 260906
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
406 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Tuesday
issued at 406 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019
forecast concerns today revolve around rain and thunderstorm
potential through late this evening. Some heavy rainfall is
possible throughout the day.

Satellite trends this morning continue to show widespread cloud
cover across much of the north-central CONUS with only small breaks
across mn ia. Two well defined shortwaves show up on WV imagery this
morning. One is lifting east-northeastward across northern illinois
into far southeast wi, while the other is sliding from near the
sd NE border eastward into western ia. Radar trends show widespread
rainfall under both of these shortwaves as well as a line of rain
showers sliding across northern and western mn ahead of an
approaching cold front as noted by wind a wind shift a drop in
dewpoint from automated surface observations.

Today and tonight: the forecast for this time period largely
revolves around the two aforementioned shortwaves and approaching
cold front. The first disturbance to impact the area will be the one
approaching from northern illinois. This convectively-enhanced
shortwave is potent enough that it has developed a surface low
across northeast mo southeast ia this morning. Moisture has been
steadily streaming northward ahead of the shortwave and surface low
and widespread rainfall has been noted. Steady moisture transport
northward along with isentropic upglide will continue to lead to a
widespread steady rainfall across much of east-central into far
northeast wi throughout the day as the surface low and shortwave
shift into southern lake michigan. Farther west, across central into
north-central portions of wi only isolated to scattered rain showers
are expected through early afternoon. The main much deeper trough
will dig across the northern plains this morning and then push
eastward into western wi by 00z Tuesday. At the surface, a northern
surface low will merge up with the southern lake michigan low and
deepen at the same time that a vort MAX rounds the base of the upper-
level trough. The associated cold front is forecast to move a bit
slower and reach central wisconsin between 00z 27 and 03z 27. Along
and ahead of the cold front, forcing and moisture will increase,
allowing for better chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm
during the late afternoon and early evening hours across central
wisconsin. The front is expected to shift eastward out of the area
by 12z Tuesday taking the associated precipitation with it.

Models are generally painting out around 500 j kg or less of mucape
today, while deep layer wind shear values are expected to be around
20 to 30 kts along and just behind the front. Current thinking is
that widespread cloud cover and rain showers today into this
evening, will keep instability very low across the area and will
likely be a major limiting factor for any strong to severe
thunderstorms. Precipitable water values are expected to be nearly
double the average for this time of year, with values in the 1.5
to 2.0 inch range. Again, this may lead to the potential for heavy
rainfall under any thunderstorm that forms. Nudged high
temperatures down to account for the increased cloud cover and
precipitation potential today. Most locations will remain in the
mid to upper 60s with a few locations across central and north-
central possibly reaching 70.

Tuesday: the stronger surface low will become nearly stationary over
central quebec through this time, with the 500mb low vertically
stacked. Multiple shortwave will pass through the area within this
continued cyclonic flow through the middle of the work week. In
fact, it looks like another vorticity MAX will slide into the
northwest half of wisconsin Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

This, along with daytime heating, will likely lead to another chance
of showers and thunderstorms across central into north-central
wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to
steepen to between -7c km to -8c km during the afternoon along for a
more unstable airmass. Freezing levels will fall to around 8000-9000
ft during that time period as well. Very little shear will be
available, but it wouldn't be out of the question to see some small
hail associated with any thunderstorm that pulses up. Temperatures
will be a bit warmer Tuesday, with less precipitation around. Winds
will also become fairly gusty out of the west with gusts up to 30
mph possible during better afternoon mixing. Most locations will
warm into the upper 60s to low 70s; however, east-central into far
northeast wi may see some mid 70s as downsloping westerly winds lead
to some compressional warming.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
issued at 406 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019
once an approaching mid level trough passes, a closed 500 mb low
is forecast to move from western ontario to hudson bay by late
in the week.

Some light showers are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday in
cyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft. The cold cyclonic
flow will also lead to much cooler temperatures on Wednesday, with
highs expected to only be in the 60s.

More zonal mid level flow will bring near normal temperatures
back to the forecast area for Thursday and Friday. A cold front
should bring a slight chance for showers to parts of the area
Thursday night and Friday, but the rest of the forecast looks dry.

Cooler temperatures are in store for the weekend in the wake of
the cold front.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1138 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019
a storm system remains on track to impact the region later
tonight into Monday evening, but details remain murky. It appears
that the system will impact the area in pieces. The first piece
may pass over the fox valley and lakeshore areas in the morning,
with rain and isolated storms, and MVFR CIGS vsbys. More showers
and storms then look possible across much of the area from late
afternoon into Monday night as conditions fall to MVFR then ifr.

It appears the showers across the eastern TAF sites look more
likely this run, however there is still some doubt as to the
timing of the second batch heading in from the west. Although
thunderstorms will be possible at times Monday afternoon and
evening, coverage is too isolated to include in this set of tafs.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Beach hazards statement through Tuesday morning for wiz022-040-
050.

Short term... ..Cooley
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 24 mi71 min SE 14 G 15 69°F 1014.3 hPa (-1.0)62°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 27 mi53 min SSE 11 G 15 68°F 1014.3 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI4 mi15 minESE 910.00 miLight Rain66°F61°F84%1014 hPa
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi18 minESE 510.00 miOvercast67°F60°F79%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTW

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SE9S6SE9SE12SE13
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SE14E12SE12E12SE8SE6SE6E4E4E3Calm----------SE7
1 day agoN3CalmN3CalmSE9E10SE9
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SE10SE9E7SE73CalmCalmCalm----NW3------SE8
2 days agoN5N5N5--N7N7N6NE7N8NE54NE75NE7NE5--N3--NW4--N4Calm--N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.