Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rockland, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:29PM Saturday January 16, 2021 3:04 AM EST (08:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:33AMMoonset 9:17PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 1028 Pm Est Fri Jan 15 2021
.gale warning in effect from 5 am est Saturday through Saturday evening...
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft. A slight chance of rain and snow late this evening and early morning, then a chance of rain late.
Sat..E winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ100 1028 Pm Est Fri Jan 15 2021
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Winds and seas build late tonight and Saturday as low pressure develops to the southwest of the waters and moves northeast. Gales are likely with seas building to or above 15 feet on the outer waters Saturday. Gusty west winds continue Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rockland, ME
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location: 44.1, -69.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 160330 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1030 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. Rain and snow will move into the area late tonight and gradually lift north through Saturday morning. While areas near the coast will see mostly rain and gusty winds, the foothills and especially the mountains will see more snow. Some of the higher elevations in the mountains may see a significant snowfall. A transition to much colder weather and gusty winds follows in the wake of the storm Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. 1030PM UPDATE . Onshore flow continues to bring in some light rain and snow depending on the low level temperature. Have made some further adjustments to the forecast as this area of precipitation extends along the entire coastline from Portsmouth to Rockland and inland a bit as well. This very light precipitation may continue until the main precipitation arrives.

8PM UPDATE . Temperatures have fallen a bit colder than expected in some interior locations so far this evening. Expect this falling trend to continue but stabilize over the coming hours as cloud cover increases in coverage and depth. Radar imagery shows some weak echoes moving onshore and this could be either some lower cloud cover or drizzle. Have locally increased POP and included a slight chance of drizzle in the forecast there to account for this. Otherwise not really expecting precipitation until after midnight.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION . High pressure slides east as high cirrus continues to stream in from the southwest through the rest of today. Ample sunshine allowed temperatures to reach into the upper-30s and low-40s today, even across the northern valleys. Increasing clouds and dew points will make it tough to cool much this evening with temperatures dipping only by 5-10 degrees or so, most pronounced up north where clouds are sill high in the sky.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Tonight, broad troughing will be located over the eastern CONUS with low pressure filling in over the Great Lakes region. A new surface low will form over the Mid-Atlantic coast by morning, traveling northward into northern New England by the end of the day as a trough axis sails north. A LLJ associated with this will bring the primary impacts to the area in the form of strong/gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall (as it taps into an atmospheric river), coastal flooding/dune erosion (more below), and significant snowfall over the higher terrain.

For winds . the time period for greatest winds is during the late morning (southern coast) through the late afternoon (Midcoast). Overall the ESErly wind direction is a favorable one for strong winds along the entire coast. The system does subtly amplify as the LLJ reaches around PWM however so somewhat stronger winds are expected for the Maine coast versus the NH Seacoast. Although the bulk of the LLJ remains elevated and in the warm nose, favorable low-level lapse rates will be present to mix 40+ mph wind gusts to the surface . so have issued a Wind Advisory for the Maine coast. Further inland winds will be limited to 30 mph or so . until you get to elevations above 2000 ft or so where 40+ mph gusts will be possible. In addition downsloping gusts approaching 40 mph are possible in portions of southern Coos County, in the lee of the Whites.

The main band of precipitation enters from the southwest during the pre- dawn hours late tonight with snow inland and rain at the coast. As the band lofts north through the morning and afternoon, temperatures will warm with a switch to rain over the lowlands . over the northern tier however temperatures will be slower to warm with mostly- snow expected. More on liquid/hydro threat below. In the valleys across the north, temperatures are expected to hover near freezing . which makes for a slushy, wet accumulation with rain possibly mixing in late if at all. Overall looking at a foot or more of snowfall potential for Saturday across peaks and ridges above about 1500 ft with 5-7 inches more likely in valleys. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Coos County, northern Franklin, northern Oxford, and central Somerset for this. Further south over western and southwest New Hampshire, 4-6 inches are likely over the peaks and ridges (locally higher) with 1-3 inches of slushy accumulation for the valleys . the Winter Weather Advisory has been pulled south through Cheshire County to account for this.

Low pressure stalls between here and Montreal tonight with snow continuing near the international border through tonight as forcing wraps around the low . and transitioning to upslope snow showers by morning with westerly winds increasing. Therefore Winter Storm Warnings are valid through 12Z Sunday with a few more inches of snowfall possible after the main band exits.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overall 500 mb pattern across North America, does shift the polar jet a little further south over the extended period, which will cool things a bit, with temps running near or slightly below normal next week, but polar vortex and Arctic air on this side of the globe are not impressively cold, and coldest air still looks to remain locked up over Siberia.

Sunday will still feature good W flow which will allow for a continuation of upslope SHSN and this is favored in the Whites and Coos county, as well as the higher peaks of western ME could see several additional inches, but will see these weaken some during the afternoon. In the downslope could see more clouds in the morning as upper level low starts over the area, but as it shifts east will lose dynamics and the downslope will take over, so expect more sun in the afternoon here. Highs will be on the milder side and range from around 30 in the N to the lows 40s in srn NH and on the ME coast. W-NW flow persists into Sunday night, although dynamics will weaken with trough still poking back from the E and will likely see another round of clouds and persistent SHSN in the mountains, although lighter and more scattered than Sunday. Lows will be mild for January, around 20 in the N to the mid to upper 20s in the S.

Otherwise temps remain near to a little below normal through mid-week with a weak wave possible around Wednesday, that could bring some SHSN to the area. Models have been persistent in developing coastal low offshore at the end of the week, but have been inconsistent with its track and thus, potential impacts on the area.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term . CIGs steadily lower to MVFR this evening into tonight as clouds stream in from the southwest ahead of an incoming system. IFR or worse in RA is expected for a several hour time period tomorrow for southern and eastern terminals with gusty winds at the coast approaching 40 kts . especially for PWM and RKD . and limited to 25 kts or less further inland. Conditions will gradually improve from southwest to northeast over the lowlands through tomorrow with winds gradually turning to the south and southwest Further inland. SN is expected to start with a RASN mix (HIE) and RA (LEB) by the evening. For KHIE in particular . restrictions are expected to persist through the evening and overnight with wind gusts during the late morning and early afternoon possibly approaching 40 kts.

Long Term . Mainly VFR outside of the mountains Sunday through Wednesday. KHIE may see restrictions due to ceilings and SHSN Sunday and Sunday night. Gusty W winds to 25 kt possible during the day on Sunday.

MARINE. Short Term . A period of strong east-southeasterly gales is expected tomorrow as a LLJ crosses overhead with seas building to 10-15 ft nearshore, up to 17 ft or so over the outer waters. There is a chance of Storm Force winds over the outer waters off the Mid-Coast late tomorrow afternoon, but without confidence to include at this time.

Long Term . Gale will likely persist into Sunday, but should begin to diminish late in the day and Sunday night, with SCA expected Mon and Tue.

HYDROLOGY. Confidence is high that a band of moderate to heavy rainfall will cross the region on Saturday with widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches over the lowlands and foothills. Strong southeast flow will mean that precipitation will be enhanced over the White and western Maine Mountains, to 1.5-2+ inches liquid, although mostly snow is expected above roughly 1500 ft. Looking at ensemble guidance there is a non-zero chance for minor flooding on smaller streams and tributaries to the southeast of the mountains, which aligns well with the WPC day 2 excessive rainfall outlook. No appreciable ice on rivers, so ice jam potential is not a factor. Outside of stream systems, this rainfall combined with frozen or partially frozen grounds may lead to instances of poor drainage or low-lying flooding.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tomorrow afternoon's 1 PM high tide cycle will be the one to look out for and this timing coincides with strong onshore flow and maximum surge over the southern coast of Maine and the New Hampshire Seacoast. Models are in good agreement that surge will top out around 1.7-2.0 feet along the coast around this time with nearshore wave action of 10-15 feet. This would put many of our locations from Portland south into minor flood with dune overwash and erosion. A coastal flood watch has been issued for these areas.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for MEZ007>009. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for MEZ023-024. Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for MEZ023>028. NH . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Saturday for NHZ003>005-007-011. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for NHZ001-002. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for NHZ014. MARINE . Gale Warning from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ150>154.



NEAR TERM UPDATE . Kimble SHORT TERM . Casey LONG TERM . Cempa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 6 mi61 min ESE 14 G 19 41°F 2 ft1017.4 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 30 mi61 min ESE 14 G 19 41°F 43°F3 ft1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME2 mi69 minESE 1210.00 miLight Rain40°F35°F83%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRKD

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6N3NE6N7N5CalmN9N8NE6NE12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4Calm5W5W3W4W3CalmCalmW3NW3NW3NW3W4W4NW3NW34
2 days agoW4W4NW3W4W3CalmN33N4CalmE6S3SW5S3S5S4SW3CalmW3SW3S6S6SW7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Rockland, Penobscot River, Maine
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Rockland
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Sat -- 01:04 AM EST     10.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:10 PM EST     11.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:31 PM EST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.510.19.57.652.61.10.61.33.25.98.610.411.110.78.96.13.20.9-0.3-0.40.93.26

Tide / Current Tables for Camden, Penobscot River, Maine
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Camden
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Sat -- 12:55 AM EST     9.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:02 PM EST     10.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:29 PM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:16 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.19.697.24.72.40.80.31.13.15.78.21010.610.18.45.830.8-0.3-0.313.25.8

Weather Map
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.