Monday, May10, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Eastlake, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:58PM Monday May 10, 2021 5:15 PM EDT (21:15 UTC) Moonrise 5:07AMMoonset 7:02PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Pm Edt Mon May 10 2021
Through early evening..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Tuesday night..West winds around 10 knots veering east toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots backing west. Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ849 Expires:202105110800;;910514 FZUS53 KGRR 102005 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-110800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eastlake, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 101945 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 345 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 343 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

. Another near to sub-freezing night expected .

High impact weather potential: Temperatures expected to once again approach or dip below freezing tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Northern Michigan remain squarely under the influence of upper level troughing, the center of which is drifting southeast just northeast of Lake Superior. Northwest winds between it and surface high pressure building south out of central Canada ushering in a reinforcing shot of seasonably chilly air, with current temperatures running mostly in the 40s (a good 15 or more degrees below normal for today's date). Chilly air aloft resulting in quite the diurnally- driven cumulus field, some of which have become deep enough to generate a few showers.

Troughing will continue to drift southeast across the area tonight, eventually shearing out to our east later Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will continue to result in below normal temperatures and sub-freezing overnight lows for a few more days yet.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing clouds/light shower potential as well as just how cold to go with temperatures tonight.

Details:

Core of upper level trough drops south into our area tonight, forcing current surface trough just to our north to do so as well. Expect diurnally-driven clouds and any attendant showers to end quickly this evening, with clouds likely increasing again from north to south as that upper wave and surface trough approach. Despite unfavorable timing (no diurnal contribution), cannot completely rule out a few light showers with approach of that surface trough. Given cold profiles through the column, if showers do form, they may very well mix with or briefly change to snow. No accumulations expected.

Much like the last several nights, temperatures remain a challenge..tied directly to cloud and wind trends. With those expected increasing clouds and maintenance of at least some light northwest surface winds, definitely don't think temperatures will drop to their full potential. But, just like overnight forecaster mentioned, temps will more than likely drop near to a bit below freezing once again just by virtue of the degree of cold air advecting into the region. Will go ahead and hoist yet another freeze warning for all of northern lower Michigan for later tonight.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 343 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Frost/freeze concerns continue, especially Tuesday night.

Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified positively-tilted troughing will rotate down through the upper Great Lakes into New England by Wednesday as upper-level ridging moves overhead. Surface high pressure will continue to build across the north-central CONUS and eventually settle over the Great Lakes on Wednesday.

Forecast/Details:

Tuesday is looking like a very similar day to today across northern Michigan. Continued NW winds will help keep cooler air in the region as highs will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s once again. Winds look to be slightly stronger with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. Some steeper lapse rates and non-zero instability will lead to cu development across most of the area once diurnal heating kicks off. Subtle ascent aloft provided by the departing trough may help spark some light showers across the area once again with the best chances coming east of I-75. Precip will struggle to reach the ground due to a dry low-level airmass in place.

The main concern for the short term continues to be frost/freeze conditions overnight, and Tuesday night deserves the attention. While winds and cloud cover have kept some areas near freezing during past nights, high pressure centering itself overhead Tuesday night will bring calm winds and clear skies to northern Michigan. This will allow for efficient radiational cooling and settling of this cold air near the surface. It would not be surprising to see many places dip down into the mid-20s overnight with some colder temps locally across the typical areas near Grayling, Roscommon, Atlanta, and Pellston, and any other areas in subtle terrain valleys amidst surrounding higher elevation. While these temperatures certainly bring the risk of damage/death to sensitive vegetation, there will be a sharp inversion near the surface as temperatures take about a 20-25 degree diurnal swing from the previous afternoon - potentially allowing these warmer temps above the surface to be manually/artificially mixed down at the surface to help keep temps as close to or above freezing as possible. Otherwise, temperatures look to finally warm up some on Wednesday as highs reach close to 60 under sunny skies.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 343 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Upper-level ridging will continue to slide over the Great Lakes and into New England on Thursday as surface high pressure sits over the region through the end of the week. Subsidence provided by these features will help keep the area precip-free heading into the weekend. Lower-chance showers are possible during the weekend, but the lack of substantial forcing will help limit more meaningful precip. After a very cool stretch, especially as far as high temps are concerned, a pleasant warming period is expected across northern Michigan. High temperatures may reach into the mid/upper 60s by the weekend, which would finally be a few degrees warmer than normal.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

Relatively high based cumulus expected the remainder of this afternoon, resulting in mostly VFR to high end MVFR conditions. Upper low over Ontario will sink into the northern Great Lakes through tonight bringing the core of coolest air into the region. With the cool air, lower cloud cover will spread down into northern Michigan later tonight and going into Tuesday, with a period of MVFR CIGS possible Tuesday morning.

Gusty northwest winds today become a bit lighter tonight, with gusty northwest winds returning on Tuesday.

MARINE. Issued at 343 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

Marginally gusty northwest winds to continue tonight, perhaps at times reaching advisory criteria . especially just off the coast of northeast lower Michigan. Northwest winds pick up in speed some Tuesday, likely resulting in small craft advisory conditions on at least some of our nearshore waters. Wind speeds steadily decrease Tuesday night, with sub-advisory winds then likely for the remainder of the week.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . FREEZE WARNING from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 2 mi35 min NNW 8 G 8.9 47°F 1022.7 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi35 min NNW 8 G 11 44°F 1022.4 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi45 min NNW 8.9 G 13 47°F 27°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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N9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI4 mi19 minNW 12 G 2010.00 miFair48°F33°F56%1021.7 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI21 mi20 minNNW 13 G 1910.00 miFair50°F26°F39%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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NW8N7N3N3N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N7NW9NW9N11NW8
G17
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1 day agoNW8W8NW4CalmCalmCalmE3S4CalmE3E3E4CalmE3E5E9NE6NE11
G15
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NW15NW12
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2 days agoNW12
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NW9NW7W5NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW10NW9
G14
NW6N8
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N10NW11
G16
NW9
G19
NW84

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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