Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Thousand Island Park, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 6:01PM Sunday March 7, 2021 4:09 PM EST (21:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:06AMMoonset 11:48AM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thousand Island Park, NY
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location: 44.27, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 071915 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 215 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. A few stray flurries and cold temperatures will continue across Western New York early this afternoon, before giving way to above normal warmth by mid-week. For the later half of this week (Wednesday night through Friday), a slow moving boundary will allow for several opportunities for rain showers. Snow melt combined with the rain will cause local creeks and streams to rise.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. The eastern periphery of the broad area of surface high pressure centered over the central Great Lakes is reaching into the area this afternoon. This high will continue to push eastward through the remainder of today.

Dry air associated with the surface high continues to limit the lake response this afternoon. Such that, the region continues to features a few areas of clouds, across Western New York early this afternoon. Additionally, some strato-cu have expanded south of the lakes, but there will be breaks and these should erode rather quickly late this afternoon as the surface ridge nudges into the area. Despite the sun, a still cold airmass aloft will bring another sub freezing afternoon. A few flurries are possible, with a no accumulation expected.

Tonight, clear skies and good radiational cooling conditions will bring lows into the teens across the Lake Plains, and single digits across high elevations, as well as possibly below zero on the Tug Hill.

Surface high pressure will settle across the southeastern states Monday, while a weak and rather dry warm front crosses WNY Monday afternoon. Temperatures will warm up into the low to mid 30s east of Lake Ontario, while low to mid 40s can be expected elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A weak warm front will be quickly followed by a weak cold front which will wash out as it moves into the area Monday night. This bring some light (mainly) snow showers to the North Country closest to its supporting shortwave. Otherwise, suspect mesoscale guidance is overdone with its upslope QPF but there will be some clouds with a widely scattered rain shower possible elsewhere. Lows Monday night will range from the lower to mid 30s south of Lake Ontario to the mid to upper 20s across the North Country.

High pressure will build back into the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, with dry weather and clearing skies. Highs Tuesday will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s in Western NY, and low to mid 40s for the North Country.

High pressure will remain centered off the southeast coast Wednesday. Dry weather will continue, with just a modest increase in mid/high clouds during the afternoon ahead of the next system. Southwest flow and warm advection will ramp up over the Ohio Valley and New England, allowing a much warmer airmass to move into our region. Highs will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the area, with mid 50s for the North Country. A SSW wind direction will keep most of the lake induced cooling on the Canadian side of the border.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A mid level trough will advance from the Northern Plains Wednesday night to the Great Lakes by Thursday night. Deep moisture will gradually increase Wednesday night, with a pre-frontal trough possibly bringing a few rain showers overnight. A better chance of rain showers will arrive Thursday night as a cold front and possibly a wave of low pressure slowly approaches and then crosses the eastern Great Lakes. 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GGEM guidance has trended slower, suggesting much of Thursday may remain dry. If this happens, then Thursday will be as warm or warmer than Wednesday. However the wind direction will likely be more southwest than Wednesday, bringing more lake cooling to areas northeast of the lakes including Buffalo. Showers will likely move through Thursday night before tapering off Friday morning.

Colder air will filter back into the region Friday as cold advection increases behind the cold front and the mid level trough reaches the eastern Great Lakes. The airmass rapidly dries out Friday night and Saturday behind the cold front, so despite colder northwest flow expect mainly dry conditions. Highs by Saturday will be back in the upper 30s to mid 40s before another cold front is forecast to push southward across the area by Sunday.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. This afternoon, VFR flight conditions continue and will persist through the TAF period. Overall, current light northwest winds will shift westerly tonight as surface high pressure invades the region.

By Monday morning, some high clouds will build into the region from the west, while winds will become southerly.

Outlook .

Monday Night through Wednesday . VFR. Wednesday night and Thursday . Mainly VFR. A chance of showers. Thursday night and Friday . VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.

MARINE. High pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with light winds that will back to westerly, and minimal wave heights.

A warming airmass will limit wave potential on the lakes into the middle part of the week.

A slow moving frontal boundary will bring chances for rain showers by Wednesday night, along with cooler air that will aid in the generation of higher wave heights, possibly nearing SCA thresholds.

HYDROLOGY. A significantly warmer pattern will start on Tuesday and this will result in increasing snow melt and associated run-off. There is still significant snow pack in place, especially across higher terrain and in the woods. The warmest temperatures will be on Wednesday and Thursday, with showers Thursday through Friday morning adding some additional run-off in addition to the snow melt.

The first concern is the risk for ice jam flooding since this could potentially occur much earlier than flooding due purely to high flows. The greatest risk for ice jams is mainly near where several Buffalo area creeks flow into the Buffalo River, which is a common location for ice jams. High flows from last week left ice jams in place, and cold weather since then has frozen these in place. Flows on the creeks will rise Tuesday evening in response to warmer temperatures, before leveling off Wednesday morning. More significant rises can be expected Wednesday evening through Thursday night when there will be a prolonged period of temperatures in the 50s and 60s. This will eventually flush out the ice jams and pretty much any ice in place, but the big question is how firm the ice jams are. Gradual melting from modest rises on Monday into Tuesday may help erode some of the ice before the highest flows start. However the longer existing ice jams hold, the greater the risk. Ice jam flooding concerns are greatest Tuesday night through Wednesday night - but before the highest flows are expected.

There is also a risk for flooding from high flows. The timing on this would be considerably later, with the highest flows on faster responding creeks likely to be on Thursday with slower responding river flooding possibly extending into Friday and Saturday. Latest model guidance shows a longer period of warm weather, and also some risk of more QPF (half inch or so) since the front will be slower to move through. This uncertainty is reflected in the MMEFS ensembles which show a risk for flooding in the Allegheny and Black River basins, in addition to the Buffalo creeks.

Probabilities for individual forecast points to reach flood stage are still low (generally 10-50 percent) but if these model trends continue a Flood Watch may be needed for this in addition to the ice jam risk. Timing is tricky because the risk starts with ice jams, and then varies by basin with much later start times in the Black River basin which has considerably more snow pack in place but is also slower to warm.

It does appear that the warm up this week will melt most of the snow and ice south of Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . EAJ NEAR TERM . EAJ SHORT TERM . Apffel/Hitchcock LONG TERM . Apffel/Hitchcock AVIATION . EAJ MARINE . EAJ/Thomas HYDROLOGY . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi70 min 34°F1029.4 hPa (-0.4)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 42 mi70 min 24°F 1029.1 hPa (-0.0)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi70 min WNW 8.9 G 11 24°F 1030.3 hPa (-0.5)10°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY18 mi74 minW 810.00 miFair22°F7°F52%1031.1 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi74 minW 810.00 miFair22°F1°F41%1029.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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