Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thousand Island Park, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 151750 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1250 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Limited lake effect snow will continue east of Lakes Erie and Ontario this afternoon and tonight with minor additional accumulations. High pressure will build into the area and bring an end to the lake effect snow by Monday morning. Low pressure will then pass just south of the area late Monday night and Tuesday with periods of snow producing light accumulations for most of the area. Lake effect snow will develop again by Wednesday, with much colder air arriving for the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Strong low pressure moving northeast across eastern Quebec will allow cyclonic westerly flow to remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes through the rest of today. This will continue to support some limited lake response. By this evening weak high pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes. This surface high and associated dry air and lowering inversion heights will force lake effect snow to diminish, but it may not end altogether.

Off Lake Erie .

A broad area of light lake effect snow showers will continue through mid afternoon, with a few narrower bands of moderate snow. This may produce another 1-2 inches locally across higher terrain where the moderate bands persist the longest. These snow showers will gradually diminish in coverage and intensity through the late afternoon and early evening as high pressure builds east across Lake Erie.

Latest mesoscale guidance suggests a weak band of snow showers may persist into the evening across Chautauqua County, and this may produce another inch or so of accumulation locally. Overnight boundary layer flow will become light, with any remaining lake effect snow showers focusing out over the lake in tea kettle fashion as land breeze circulations develop. If the lake snow survives the overnight a few snow showers may cross the Buffalo Metro area Monday morning as boundary layer flow briefly becomes southwesterly over Lake Erie. If this does occur, accumulations will be minimal.

Off Lake Ontario .

A decent band of lake effect snow showers continues to drift south across Oswego County early this afternoon. This band will continue to drift south and weaken through mid to late afternoon in response to slowly veering flow and drier air over Lake Ontario. Additional accumulations of 1-2 inches are possible where the band persists the longest.

Tonight the lake effect snow band will weaken as the airmass dries over Lake Ontario and inversion heights lower, but it will likely not dissipate entirely. A band of snow showers will continue mainly across northeast Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties with an additional 1-2 inches in persistent snows. Farther west, a few snow showers may clip the south shore of the lake at times through the first half of tonight, with a local dusting possible along and north of Route 104 in Orleans and Monroe counties. The lake effect snow will end by around daybreak Monday as boundary layer flow becomes weak, and inversion heights continue to lower.

Outside of these main lake effect areas, the few remaining snow showers from Lake Huron will end by late afternoon as the airmass continues to dry. It will then be dry overnight between the weakening lake bands, with some partial clearing. Lows will drop into the upper teens to lower 20s in most locations, with some single digits possible east of Lake Ontario.

On Monday an initial, weak baroclinic wave will move from west to east along a stalled frontal zone stretching from the Ohio Valley to southern Pennsylvania. This feature will spread a period of mid level clouds across our region during the morning and midday, but any precipitation will stay well south of the NY/PA line through the evening. Once any lingering lake effect snow showers end early in the morning, the rest of the day will be dry. Expect highs in the mid 30s in most locations, with 20s limited to Lewis County.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Monday is trending to be dry across our region as the main baroclinic boundary and precipitation remains to our south, across the southern mid-Atlantic. Precipitation will spread across our region by Monday evening with a second wave of precipitation, with this activity associated with a nearing surface low, and strengthening front entrance region of an upper level jet aloft. Recent model guidance is not bringing a layer of warmer air aloft into our region, but rather maintain temperatures cold enough through the lower levels to maintain all snow. Expect light snow to spread across our region as broad synoptic lift increases with low level convergence within an inverted surface trough extending into our region from the south . and front right entrance region of a 190 knot 300 hPa jet develops over our region. The deeper moisture and greatest lift will be closer to the surface low that will pass to our south . and will have categorical PoPs to our south and east, while some of our northwest borders that will lie farthest from the surface low will have just high chance PoP for light snow Monday night.

Snow Monday night and into Tuesday will be on the minor side, with just an inch or two Monday night, and an additional 1 -3 inches Tuesday. As the inverted trough passes us Tuesday, precipitation will taper off from west to east behind its passage. Colder air will then flow over the Eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday and into Tuesday night, with temperatures at 850 hPa falling down to around -12 to -14C. This will result in lake effect snow forming, to the east of the Lakes. Winds may back enough ahead of another surface trough late Tuesday night to bring snows as far north as Buffalo, while to the east of Lake Ontario a long westerly fetch over Lake Ontario will primarily orient the band of lake effect snow Tuesday afternoon and night towards the Tug Hill. While inversion heights will rise to over 10K feet east of both Lakes, and low level lapse rates increase to over 8 C/km moisture will again be marginal for heavy lake effect snowbands to form. Also 850 hPa low does not really close off, but rather is just a passing upper level trough . which can lead to oscillating bands of snow. As a result, snow maximums east of both lakes may just end up low - mid advisory range.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A closed mid level low will track from the Great Lakes to the Northeast Wednesday. Surface low pressure is expected to track across southern Ontario and Quebec during this time. This will drag a cold front through western and north central NY. Guidance has been locked on that 850mb temperatures will fall to around -20C producing extreme lake induced instability mid-week. West-northwest flow will likely lead to lake effect snow east-southeast of the Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night. The steepening lapse rates may also increase the risk of snow squalls Wednesday afternoon outside of lake bands.

While conditions look favorable for lake effect snow, this event also looks short-lived. A mid-level ridge will move into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday which will veer winds and cut off moisture. Drier weather expected late in the week while temperatures remain below normal.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Lake effect snow showers will continue east of the lakes through the rest of the afternoon, with a few narrow bands of moderate snow. VSBY will be IFR within the areas of lake effect snow, with a few snow showers briefly dropping VSBY blow 1SM. Off Lake Erie most of the snow showers will focus across the western Southern Tier, including KJHW. Off Lake Ontario, most of the snow showers will focus southeast of the lake from KFZY southwestward. Most, if not all of the lake effect snow showers should stay just north and east of KROC. CIGS will generally run MVFR in bands of lake effect snow showers, with VFR between the bands.

The snow showers will decrease in coverage and intensity through the evening, and then end altogether by Monday morning. Once the lake effect snow showers end, VFR will prevail Monday with a period of dry weather and some mid level clouds.

Outlook . Monday night . Light snow developing after 06Z with conditions deteriorating to IFR. Tuesday . IFR in light snow. Wednesday . IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, with VFR elsewhere. Thursday . IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes, VFR elsewhere. Friday . VFR.

MARINE. A strong low will continue to move northeast through eastern Quebec. Gale force winds on Lake Ontario will continue through mid to late afternoon before diminishing. Small Craft Advisory conditions will then linger through late tonight as winds gradually diminish.

Light winds will return by Monday. Another period of stronger winds will develop late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a strong cold front crosses the region. This will bring the next round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the eastern Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. West gales on Lake Ontario through mid to late afternoon will produce significant wave action on the east half of the lake, and combine with high lake levels to increase the risk of lakeshore flooding. Wind direction is expected to be nearly due west for the duration of the strong winds, which will drive the higher risk of Lakeshore flooding to areas from about Fair Haven eastward where the shoreline is more perpendicular to a west wind. Farther west along the south shore of Lake Ontario, winds will be parallel to the shoreline.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ005>007. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045- 062>065. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-024.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . Thomas LONG TERM . HSK AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY	7 mi	54 min					1007.1 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY	42 mi	54 min		27°F			1005.6 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	61 mi	54 min	W 27 G 42				1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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W34 G42

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W28 G40

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S14 G20

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SW5 G10

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S13 G19

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY	18 mi	1.7 hrs	W 19 G 33	10.00 mi	Overcast and Breezy	32°F	21°F	66%	1007.7 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY	22 mi	1.7 hrs	W 11 G 26	10.00 mi	Overcast	31°F	22°F	68%	1006.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)

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NE9

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W17 G26

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S9 G25

S13 G20

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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