Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Tawas, MI
April 26, 2024 4:31 AM EDT (08:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:32 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 10:59 PM Moonset 6:34 AM |
LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 324 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
Today - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east early in the evening. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Saturday - South wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Saturday night - Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ300
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 260723 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 323 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-- Elevated fire danger this afternoon into early this evening.
-- Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms return tonight.
-- Showers and thunderstorms this Saturday and Sunday with growing potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening.
-- Showers and storms linger into Monday. Chances of precipitation continue at times next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:
Mid/upper-level ridging will center itself squarely overhead today as associated surface high pressure continues to build east of the region underneath favorable subsidence aloft. Upstream, shortwave troughing will eject over the southern Great Plains and quickly lift northeastward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes tonight. Strong ascent provided by this wave will deepen a cyclone as it treks across the central Great Plains and into northern Iowa/southern Minnesota tonight. An attendant warm front extending east-southeast from the cyclone center looks to lift into northern Michigan later tonight/early Saturday morning.
Forecast Details:
Elevated fire danger -- Quiet weather/sunny skies will be in place again today. Combination of warmer afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s and aforementioned sunshine will promote efficient mixing today, leading to relative humidities dipping into the low to mid 20 percent range across interior northern Michigan this afternoon and early evening. Fine fuels continue to dry with rain-free weather as well. Winds will strengthen out of the southeast today on the backside of this feature with expected sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph at times. This combination of low RHs, gusty winds, and dry fuels will lead to elevated fire danger this afternoon into early this evening.
Showers/isolated storms tonight -- After quiet weather today, rain chances return late this evening through tonight as the aforementioned warm front lifts across the state. Multiple rounds of showers will be possible overnight with initial rain likely struggling to reach the ground with dry low-levels still in place north of the surface front. Fumes of elevated buoyancy apparent on forecast soundings combined with ~30kts of deep-layer shear will be enough to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday morning. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, severe storms are not expected through 12Z/8 AM EDT Saturday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Midlevel shortwave riding over the central U.S with upstream shortwave troughing currently over the southwest will continue to provide one more day of pleasant weather before showers and storms move into the Great Lakes region this Saturday.
Aformentioned troughing will progress to the Upper Midwest by 12Z Saturday, while weakening. A second lee trough will develop and continue to push an unsettled air mass into the Great Lakes region with the main focus on Saturday as severe weather becomes a bigger threat to the CWA
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:
-Showers and thunderstorms this Saturday and Sunday with growing potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening: Lee cyclogenesis makes its way to the Great Lakes region at the start of the long term period. Warm air advection will raise daytime highs to the mid 70s with dew points in the upper 50s/low 60s behind the systems warm front and providing plenty of energy for thunderstorm development. Current ensemble guidance depicting shear values above 40 kts and SRH values approaching 300 m2/s2 gives concern for the potential of all three severe hazards (wind, hail, and even possible tornado potential with such low LCL's). Latest updates from SPC keep the northern lower under a slight risk while WPC keeps excessive rain potential under little to no categorical risk for Saturday evening/night. Showers and storms continue into Sunday with no severe risk as the aformentioned trough diminishes and forms a more stationary boundary to finish off the weekend.
-Showers and storms linger into Monday. Chances of precipitation continue at times next week: Midlevel shortwave troughing will progress towards the southern shore of Hudson Bay by Monday/Tuesday timeframe. A split flow pattern will continue to occupy the CONUS for the remainder of the forecast period with embedded waves moving over the Great Lakes region.
Scattered showers will continue at times next week (especially Wednesday), but no heavy precipitation or severe weather is expected at this time.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Large area of strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will slowly push eastward into New England over the next 24 hours
Skies will remain clear overnight into Friday
but clouds will increase by Friday night as moisture begins to surge northward in advance of a developing storm system over the Central Plains. Solid VFR conditions are expected at all Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites thru Friday evening. Chances of showers will begin to increase from SW to NE across our area late Friday evening and overnight. Light SE winds overnight will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Friday.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346-347.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ341-342.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 323 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-- Elevated fire danger this afternoon into early this evening.
-- Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms return tonight.
-- Showers and thunderstorms this Saturday and Sunday with growing potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening.
-- Showers and storms linger into Monday. Chances of precipitation continue at times next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:
Mid/upper-level ridging will center itself squarely overhead today as associated surface high pressure continues to build east of the region underneath favorable subsidence aloft. Upstream, shortwave troughing will eject over the southern Great Plains and quickly lift northeastward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes tonight. Strong ascent provided by this wave will deepen a cyclone as it treks across the central Great Plains and into northern Iowa/southern Minnesota tonight. An attendant warm front extending east-southeast from the cyclone center looks to lift into northern Michigan later tonight/early Saturday morning.
Forecast Details:
Elevated fire danger -- Quiet weather/sunny skies will be in place again today. Combination of warmer afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s and aforementioned sunshine will promote efficient mixing today, leading to relative humidities dipping into the low to mid 20 percent range across interior northern Michigan this afternoon and early evening. Fine fuels continue to dry with rain-free weather as well. Winds will strengthen out of the southeast today on the backside of this feature with expected sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph at times. This combination of low RHs, gusty winds, and dry fuels will lead to elevated fire danger this afternoon into early this evening.
Showers/isolated storms tonight -- After quiet weather today, rain chances return late this evening through tonight as the aforementioned warm front lifts across the state. Multiple rounds of showers will be possible overnight with initial rain likely struggling to reach the ground with dry low-levels still in place north of the surface front. Fumes of elevated buoyancy apparent on forecast soundings combined with ~30kts of deep-layer shear will be enough to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday morning. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, severe storms are not expected through 12Z/8 AM EDT Saturday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Midlevel shortwave riding over the central U.S with upstream shortwave troughing currently over the southwest will continue to provide one more day of pleasant weather before showers and storms move into the Great Lakes region this Saturday.
Aformentioned troughing will progress to the Upper Midwest by 12Z Saturday, while weakening. A second lee trough will develop and continue to push an unsettled air mass into the Great Lakes region with the main focus on Saturday as severe weather becomes a bigger threat to the CWA
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:
-Showers and thunderstorms this Saturday and Sunday with growing potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening: Lee cyclogenesis makes its way to the Great Lakes region at the start of the long term period. Warm air advection will raise daytime highs to the mid 70s with dew points in the upper 50s/low 60s behind the systems warm front and providing plenty of energy for thunderstorm development. Current ensemble guidance depicting shear values above 40 kts and SRH values approaching 300 m2/s2 gives concern for the potential of all three severe hazards (wind, hail, and even possible tornado potential with such low LCL's). Latest updates from SPC keep the northern lower under a slight risk while WPC keeps excessive rain potential under little to no categorical risk for Saturday evening/night. Showers and storms continue into Sunday with no severe risk as the aformentioned trough diminishes and forms a more stationary boundary to finish off the weekend.
-Showers and storms linger into Monday. Chances of precipitation continue at times next week: Midlevel shortwave troughing will progress towards the southern shore of Hudson Bay by Monday/Tuesday timeframe. A split flow pattern will continue to occupy the CONUS for the remainder of the forecast period with embedded waves moving over the Great Lakes region.
Scattered showers will continue at times next week (especially Wednesday), but no heavy precipitation or severe weather is expected at this time.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Large area of strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will slowly push eastward into New England over the next 24 hours
Skies will remain clear overnight into Friday
but clouds will increase by Friday night as moisture begins to surge northward in advance of a developing storm system over the Central Plains. Solid VFR conditions are expected at all Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites thru Friday evening. Chances of showers will begin to increase from SW to NE across our area late Friday evening and overnight. Light SE winds overnight will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Friday.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346-347.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ341-342.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI | 3 mi | 51 min | 0G | 37°F | 30.36 | |||
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI | 19 mi | 51 min | SE 8G | 42°F | 30.35 | |||
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 36 mi | 31 min | SSE 11G | 42°F | 30.32 | |||
KP58 | 41 mi | 36 min | 0 | 34°F | 30.37 | 29°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KOSC OSCODAWURTSMITH,MI | 12 sm | 16 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 25°F | 19°F | 80% | 30.36 |
Gaylord, MI,
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