Saturday, July24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Tawas, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 9:08PM Saturday July 24, 2021 5:11 PM EDT (21:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 5:25AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 358 Pm Edt Sat Jul 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm edt this evening...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 390 in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the evening. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:202107250400;;391186 FZUS53 KAPX 241958 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 358 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ349-250400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Tawas, MI
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location: 44.29, -83.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 241956 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 356 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

. Showers and strong t-storms into early evening .

Bands of reasonably vigorous showers have redeveloped, though thunder is limited to near/south of M-55 to this point. Best rainfall will be removed from the part of nw lower MI that had so much rain this morning. Still, everyone got a thorough soaking earlier, and will need to keep a cautious eye out for excessive rainfall as bands of showers/embedded thunder work thru. For now, expect heavier precip rates to be transient enough to eliminate major problems - that, and the general flood-resistant nature of much of northern MI.

The best shear of this event is preparing to depart northern lower MI. But we have managed just enough of an overlap between best shear (0-3km helicity of 200-300) and instability (MlCape around 1k j/kg) to get some smallish supercells in central lower MI. Our low-level shear is progged to depart eastward over the next 1-2 hours, with a transition to a straight-line wind threat. Whether that transition plays out in a significant way this far north is still questionable, given more limited instability.

The bulk of precip, and almost certainly the strongest convection, should depart se zones toward/by 8 pm. Though the svr watch runs thru 10 pm, up here we will almost certainly be able to cancel it earlier than that.

Congested cu are seen upstream over the west half of upper MI, as strong surface heating interacts with a secondary cold front and lake breezes. A few cells could fire in this area, and eventually impact parts of eastern upper and nw lower MI mid-late evening. Otherwise, clouds will decrease tonight, with some patchy fog emerging overnight. Min temps mainly within a few degrees of 60f.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

. High pressure returns to northern Michigan .

High impact weather potential: None.

The forecast period begins with a 1014mb high pressure and accompanied drier air centered over Illinois that is progged to continue to build into northern Michigan . producing a less humid, but still warm days for Sunday and Monday, with no rain chances. Skies will be mostly clear throughout this entire period . with clouds finally forecast to be on the increase late Monday evening ahead of an area of developing low pressure over the western Great Lakes (which will be mentioned in further detail in the long term period).

Winds will be west-northwesterly with some gusts of up to 20 mph possible . especially during the afternoon hours Sunday as the gradient between the departing system currently moving through and the building high pressure remains fairly tight and diurnal heating allowing for winds aloft to descend to the surface. As this high continues to build into the forecast area Sunday night, the winds diminish in intensity and become light and variable with a northwesterly component once again during the afternoon hours with daytime heating.

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s and less humid, with some locations possibly reaching the 90 degree mark each day. Overnight lows Sunday night will dip down to about 60 degrees.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal, but some thunder possible.

There are some hints of weak disturbances that may produce chances of showers at times, but all in all, rain-free weather will most likely be the predominant winner. The first disturbance will be early Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure and parent shortwave trough move overhead from north to south throughout the morning and afternoon hours. This will produce rain with some rumbles of thunder possible as well. As these disturbances become closer, timing, duration, and intensity will be more fine tuned. Daytime high temperatures appear to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Showers/storms possible this afternoon/early evening, with APN the most certain to see heavier precip at times. Conditions will improve tonight, though some fog is a possibility overnight.

Somewhat gusty sw winds will lighten and become west tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Gusty sw winds will result in advisory-level conditions on some waters into early evening. Winds/waves will diminish behind a weakening cool front, with quieter conditions for Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 3 mi32 min SSW 8 G 11 74°F 1006.1 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi32 min SSW 18 G 28 76°F 1007.1 hPa
45163 22 mi32 min SW 16 G 19 74°F 2 ft1008.3 hPa
KP58 41 mi77 min 79°F 1006.4 hPa74°F
45162 49 mi32 min S 12 G 14 70°F 3 ft1003.5 hPa

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI12 mi17 minSSW 9 G 177.00 miOvercast76°F74°F94%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE8SE6SE5S3S5S4S5S5S5S5S5S7CalmS6S14S8S7S6S7S10SW11
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1 day agoS5S4S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3S5S3S5E4S9S9
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2 days agoNE13NE10NE10NE6CalmSW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W5W3SW6SW5SW6W5SW4S7S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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