Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 12:21 AM   Moonset 8:22 AM

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LMZ542 Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 512 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Tonight - NE wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts veering se 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Areas of dense fog. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Monday - S wind 10 to 20 kts. Gusts to around 25 kts. Areas of dense fog in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Monday night - SW wind 10 to 20 kts veering W 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the late evening and overnight. Tuesday - W wind 10 to 15 kts backing S in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 282040 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers and moderate to heavy rain are expected tonight into Monday morning, which could result in isolated flash flooding in urban and low lying areas. Rivers will be on the rise through midweek, with a few of them reaching bankfull stage.

- Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected into Monday on the Bay and Lake. Patchy dense fog is possible on the waters as well.

- There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday night. Additional rain and thunderstorm chances are possible at times from late Wednesday night through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Monday

An area of showers, coincident with a mid-level shortwave, is currently making its way through northern Wisconsin this afternoon. Periods of showers will continue overnight as a surface low slowly lifts from Iowa to Minnesota with the warm front lifting from northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, providing isentropic lift across Wisconsin. There will be some modest instability north of the warm front tonight; however, this has not resulted in much in the way of thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. Therefore, will remove thunder mention from the forecast this evening and not include it until later tonight when a swath of better MUCAPE advects north along with the approaching warm front. Even this push of instability should only yield some elevated thunderstorms overnight; mainly across central and east- central Wisconsin. Some fog will be possible tonight as surface winds decrease with fairly high dew points across the area. In addition, some marine fog could advect in across east-central and northeast Wisconsin near the lake and bay given the fairly cold waters and warm air aloft. Temperatures tonight will remain fairly close to what they are now and budge a few degrees higher or lower depending on the location.

The aforementioned warm front will lift north on Monday morning, allowing much of northeast Wisconsin to make it into the warm sector. This will allow daytime highs to soar into the 60s across much of central, east-central, and northeast Wisconsin with mainly upper 50s across north-central Wisconsin. The warm front lifting north is expected to provide a break in the precipitation Monday morning, especially across central and east-central Wisconsin.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are possible later on Monday as some modest MUCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/kg builds across east-central and northeast Wisconsin during the afternoon and the cold front associated with the low sweeps through Wisconsin.

Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday

Precipitation...A few showers, associated with the departing surface low, will linger over far northeast WI Monday evening, before coming to an end late Monday evening. This system will be followed by surface ridging on Tuesday, leaving conditions dry across the area.
A quick-moving shortwave and surface cold front is still on track to move across the state Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Due to how quick this system is moving, the likelihood of a washout is rather low. In fact, probabilities for QPF of 0.50 inch or more by Wednesday morning are between 10-20% for central and north-central WI, and less than 10% elsewhere. Cannot rule out a few embedded thunderstorms as some models are indicating instability of a couple hundred J/kg, but not anticipating any severe weather at this time.

Continuing to monitor guidance and trends for Wednesday night through weekend, as there are still indications for a southern stream system to potentially bring heavy rainfall to the area. There are still timing and placement differences, but a general consensus has the heaviest rain occurring Thursday night through Friday.
Thunderstorms will also be possible at times with this system, but it is too difficult and early to determine when they will occur and if they will become severe.

Temperatures...Southerly flow will lift warmer air into the region for Tuesday allowing temperatures to rise above normal with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Despite the cold front moving through Tuesday night, temperatures will rebound on Wednesday and remain above normal with highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
With potential for rainfall for the remainder of the extended, temperatures will return to near normal.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A low pressure system tracking from the central Plains towards the western Great Lakes will bring periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms through Monday, most widespread this afternoon through tonight. Hi-res models indicate instability is less than previous runs; therefore, will remove thunder from the main TAF sites as the chances for thunder have decreased.

CIGs will generally be MVFR this afternoon, with IFR conditions spreading over most of the region later this afternoon and through tonight. Conditions are expected to improve back to MVFR later on Monday as the main low tracks through the area and some drier air advects into the region.

Gusty northeast surface winds are expected this afternoon, with surface winds easing overnight and becoming easterly. Some LLWS is possible across central and north-central Wisconsin this evening as low level winds from the southwest gust to 40 knots.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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