Sunday, July25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mishicot, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:24PM Sunday July 25, 2021 11:51 AM CDT (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:56PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ542 Expires:202107252215;;433737 Fzus53 Kgrb 251508 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 1008 Am Cdt Sun Jul 25 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-252215- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1008 Am Cdt Sun Jul 25 2021
This afternoon..W wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Sunny.
Tonight..W wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Clear.
Monday..W wind 5 to 10 kts backing sw 10 to 15 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
Monday night..SW wind 10 to 15 kts veering nw 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
LMZ542


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mishicot, WI
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location: 44.31, -87.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 251116 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 616 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Monday Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Generally expecting quiet weather through much of the short-term portion of the forecast. The main concerns will be the well above normal temperatures along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon.

Today and tonight: Northeast Wisconsin will be under the northwestern edge of a surface ridge with drier in place through this time period. This will lead to mostly clear skies and dry conditions. The area will remain on the inflection point of stronger ridging to the west and troughing to the east. This will allow for a bit deeper mixing during the afternoon, with winds gusting to around 20 to 25 mph. The lower dewpoints, will also make it feel more comfortable outside with lower humidity. Temperatures will still be well above normal with most locations warming to the upper 80s to possibly even a few low 90 degree readings. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 50s to low 60s.

Monday: The aforementioned surface ridge is expected to shift eastward, allowing southwest winds and moisture to increase from the southwest throughout the day. By late Monday afternoon, a trough/frontal boundary is expected to slide into northern Wisconsin. As this happens, instability is expected to increase across all of the area. The increased late afternoon instability and forcing along the boundary will allow isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop near the UP/WI border late in the afternoon. Locations farther south and east will be closer to the departing surface ridge and drier air, so thunderstorms development looks less likely. The better forcing/thermodynamic profiles are expected to arrive later in the evening as a shortwave approaches from the west. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s!.

LONG TERM. Monday Night Through Saturday Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Main forecast concerns revolve around timing of showers and storms, along with the chances for severe weather and flooding. Very warm/hot and humid conditions are expected into Wednesday, then slightly cooler and less humid air arrives for late in the week and into Saturday.

Monday night into Tuesday morning . the first in a series of shortwaves will dive southeast across the area within the mid- upper level northwest flow. Models are in fairly good agreement showing the combination of weak low level convergence along a stationary boundary, strong instability in the warm sector, steep mid-level lapse rates and the shortwave kicking off convection well upstream of our area in MN and northwest WI in the afternoon and early evening. This activity will spread southeast into our area in the evening and overnight hours then end on Tuesday morning. Still some differences in the models on where/when the heaviest precip will fall. SPC has shifted the marginal risk a little to the west, as the better severe threat is expected in MN and northwest WI where storms will be more surface based, but the complex could pose a small threat for severe weather in our area, mainly across central WI, even as the storms become more elevated. Main threat would be wind. Heavy rain will also be a concern with PWATs between 1.25-1.75" and some potential the WSW/W strengthening LLJ will become aligned with the surface front leading to some training storms. Flooding will be possible if this activity gets well organized across our area, especially for areas that received the most rain the past 36 hours. WPC has placed much of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rain, which seems very reasonable given how many rivers are running above to much above their seasonal norm for late July, especially in central WI.

Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning . subsidence from the morning complex along with weak capping looks to keep most spots dry. However, if the cap does break, strong instability and 30-50 kts of deep layer shear would favor some storm development along or near the stationary boundary or outflow boundary, with another complex of storms also possible if more organization occurs. This could be over our area of farther to the west. Until the overnight convection timing/strength is handled, along with just how warm temps will be aloft and where the surface front will be located, what will happen will be in question. It will be warm and humid with highs mainly in the 80s to 90. However, it should be noted models are showing more of an easterly flow, especially in eastern WI, so temps could be held down a little. If clouds clear and we remain capped, could have some lower 90s as 850mb temps climb to near 20C in central WI. Heat index readings will be a couple/few degrees warmer, warmest in central WI.

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night . confidence is slowly growing that a round of strong to severe storms will push across the area. However, many factors in play, including what/if anything happens early in the day which could impact where the surface boundary is and how much instability will develop, along with some timing/location differences. That said, models are showing a strong cold front dropping south from Canada and another shortwave diving into the area. Strong instability is forecast to build in the warm sector with impressive bulk shear of 40-55 kts, mid-level lapse rates of 6 to 7.5 C/km, mid-level winds of 60-70 kts and an upper jet dropping into the region. If these ingredients come together, would could be dealing with a higher end severe weather event. PWATs also climb to around 2" ahead of the front, so heavy rain will be a concern although this system will be fairly progressive. But any training would bring a flooding threat. It looks to be very warm and humid with highs mainly in the 80s to around 90. And if the GFS is correct, 850mb temps of 24-26C would support temps well into the 90s, but that might be a little overdone.

Rest of the long term . current timing would have all the storm activity south of the area around 12z Thursday, with high pressure building into the region. This will dry things out for Thursday and Friday and usher in less humid conditions. As the high pressure slides to our south/east on Saturday, return flow will set up across the western Great Lakes. Another shortwave will drop down within the still present northwest upper flow sometime on Saturday, bringing the next chance for showers/storm.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Good flying conditions with VFR ceilings and visibilities can be expected through this TAF issuance. Afternoon mixing may result in and increase in sustained winds to around 10 kts with gusts approaching 20 kts. Otherwise, winds will decrease overnight as the atmosphere stabilizes.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Cooley LONG TERM . Bersch AVIATION . Cooley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 11 mi58 min W 2.9 G 5.1 81°F 1011.8 hPa
45014 35 mi52 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 74°F1012.1 hPa (+0.0)
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 39 mi52 min W 8.9 G 11 82°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI13 mi56 minno data10.00 miFair82°F63°F53%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTW

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9NW11W17
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NW9W9W10W8W6W7W8NW63W6W7W8W6W7W6W6W7W8W7--
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2 days agoSE6SE8SE8SE8--SE8SE6SE4S8SE5SE5S6E4E4CalmCalmS5CalmNE3CalmSE5SE6S5SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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