Sunday, July25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:27PM Sunday July 25, 2021 11:46 AM EDT (15:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:58PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 251409 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1009 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracking east through Quebec will drag a warm front through the region this morning followed by a cold front this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers will persist through mid- day, with only isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon. Monday will feature partly sunny skies, seasonal temperatures and a few isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A stronger front will bring more numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, followed by high pressure and cooler temperatures on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 1000 AM EDT Sunday . The swath of precipitation that moved across the region overnight and early this morning has pushed east into New Hampshire, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies and patchy drizzle. Much drier air can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery spilling into the North Country. So in spite of lingering low level moisture and increasing instability, don't anticipate much more than isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. A bit of clearing was seen in the St Lawrence Valley early, but this has already begun to fill in with clouds as heating has increased. This will be the trend through the day with partly to mostly cloudy skies to prevail. As noted by the previous forecaster, smoke can be readily seen spreading southeast through Ontario and the Great Lakes via visible satellite, and a few surface observation sites in Ontario continue to report restricted visibility due to smoke and/or haze. Expect some of this will make its way into northern New York before sunset, mostly AOA 1000 ft. Highs today will range from the lower 70s in eastern VT to the lower 80s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. The forecast has this all pretty much covered, so have just made some slight adjustments to sky cover and PoPs to match the latest satellite and model trends with this update. No significant changes were needed.

Previous discussion . Widespread showers have come to an end across northern New York and will be exiting Vermont in the next few hours. No change from what we previously offered for the remainder of the day with skies gradually becoming partly cloudy with the potential for isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon. 925mb temps around +20C should support highs in the mid 70s to low 80s this afternoon with winds gusty this morning in the 20-30mph range abating to 5-15 mph this afternoon.

Behind the cold front passage this evening clearing skies and dry conditions are largely forecast for tonight. A weak shortwave skirting along the international border could spark a few isolated showers, but overall expect a quiet night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Monday, trends are now for a drier forecast during the daylight hours with little thunderstorm potential as a surface cold front will remain well north of the region. With some surface instability around in the afternoon there could be a few isolated showers and rumbles of thunder, but the lack of any strong forcing and meager deep layer shear should preclude any convective organization. Highs will be seasonal in the upper 70s to low 80s.

One additional forecast note will be the return of smoke in the mid-levels from western wildfires today. This is already evident on morning visible satellite and will increase across the area through the afternoon. There is also some indication that smoke will become quite dense again by Monday morning and potentially shift into the lower levels. An air quality alert may be needed Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 420 AM EDT Sunday . Monday night will be overall quiet with warm air advection ongoing ahead of an approaching cold front which will impact the region on Tuesday. A weak shortwave will track along the international border Monday night, so have mentioned just a chance for some light rain showers. Then we will have better forcing and better shortwave energy on Tuesday as a cold front pushes across the area. At this time it appears that Tuesday will be the best chance for precipitation during the short and long term portions of the forecast. Will have to monitor potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as some decent shear and CAPE will exist ahead of the cold front. NAM is showing cape in excess of 1500 J/kg Tue afternoon from the Champlain valley eastward. We will also have a strong upper level jet over the region. PWATs push above 1.5", so heavy rain will be possible in any convection that develops. Tough to tell this far out the details on the timing of the storms, and whether all the ingredients will come together for some strong storms, but we will continue to monitor the potential. Minimum temperatures Monday night will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday will reach the lower to upper 70s, warmest south and east where it takes the longest for the cold front to arrive.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 420 AM EDT Sunday . A secondary cold front pushes across the region Tuesday night, ushering cooler and drier air and bringing an end to any remaining showers and storms. A ridge of surface high pressure will then be over the region from late Tuesday night through early Thursday morning. Thursday will bring our next chance for precipitation as another frontal system moves across our forecast area, followed by the upper level trough on Thursday night. Another ridge of surface high pressure will build over the region for the tail end of the week. Overall the temperatures will remain below seasonal normals for the long term portion of our forecast.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Through 12Z Monday . Mix of MVFR/VFR will prevail through mid- morning before lifting to VFR this afternoon. Areas of LLWS persist for a few more hours with surface winds generally 8-12kts from the SSW except locally gusty to 20-25kts at KBTV through mid-day. After 04Z, winds abate and LIFR fog is likely at KMPV and KSLK.

Outlook .

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA, Patchy BR. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

MARINE. As of 420 AM EDT Sunday . South winds of 15-25kts with gusts to 30kts will persist on Lake Champlain through mid morning before diminishing to 10-15kts this afternoon. Choppy conditions with waves up to 3-5 feet will subside to 1-3 feet this afternoon.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Lahiff NEAR TERM . Hastings/Lahiff SHORT TERM . Neiles LONG TERM . Neiles AVIATION . Lahiff MARINE . Hastings


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45195 12 mi46 min 68°F2 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi52 minS 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast74°F66°F76%1008.6 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi53 minSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F67°F79%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3W6W6S45S10S9S7S8S6S7S5S8S10
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1 day agoCalm4N8NW7NW10N11N8N6NW3W4E3SE3E3SE3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S33
2 days agoN43NW8N8NW8NW7NW7NW7NW6W5NW6NW6NW5CalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3N3NW55

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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