Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:42PM Thursday July 2, 2020 4:44 AM EDT (08:44 UTC) Moonrise 6:19PMMoonset 3:00AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 020712 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 312 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Seasonably warm to locally hot weather is expected across the region over the next five days. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will exist later today into Friday as a weak cold front crosses the area, then again this coming Sunday and possibly by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 312 AM EDT Thursday . No large-scale changes expected for today as ridging builds in from the north with warm to locally hot weather in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A weak backdoor cold front will approach from the north late in the day into this evening which will support formation of scattered or widely scattered convection, mainly across northern counties as deeper zone of northwesterly flow aloft bridges across the region. Despite some differences in today's modelled sounding profiles, the overall idea is for a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low to mid level lapse rates. This would support localized strong gusty winds with any deeper convective cores. As such I've introduced gusty wind wording into the forecast for our northern counties later today into early evening which lines up well with most recent SPC SWODY1 marginal risk area.

Scattered to widely scattered convection continues into tonight, though wanes in coverage over time as aforementioned weak front slips across the area. Best focus appears to set up across northern NY counties into the southwestern half of VT. Low temperatures to remain mild in the 60s to locally around 70 in milder Champlain Valley locales.

Some modest changes to the forecast on Friday as the backdoor front stalls in a northwest to southeast orientation to our immediate southwest. An additional impulse in the northwesterly flow aloft will approach by later in the morning into the afternoon. This, combined with broadly diffluent upper flow and modest instability across southwestern zones should allow convection to reblossom across southern zones accordingly. PoPs have been increased in this area, with progressively drier conditions as you progress toward the Canadian border, especially north and east. Temperatures will reflect these trends and with larger coverage of clouds southern zones will actually be cooler as highs mainly hold in the 70s. Further north, aforementioned drier weather and partial sunshine should allow readings to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s in many spots.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 323 PM EDT Wednesday . Expecting some patchy dense fog for Friday night, with lows mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Drier air gradually filters into the region Friday night into Saturday, with PW values falling from 1.5-1.6" Friday afternoon to around 0.75" at 18Z Saturday. Should set up a pleasant Independence Day with dry conditions, mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low- mid 80s. Sea-level pressure gradient is relatively flat, so anticipating surface winds W-NW around 5 mph.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 323 PM EDT Wednesday . Mid-summer conditions expected through the long-term forecast period with a gradual increase in temperatures and humidity. Temperatures begin in the mid 80s on Sunday, but building thermal ridge ewd from the Great Lakes should yield valley highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for the Monday through Wednesday period. Diurnal chances for afternoon/early evening tstm activity exist. May see more widespread threat of showers and thunderstorms toward Wednesday, especially per 12Z GFS with approach of a mid-level shortwave trough from the Great Lakes and associated surface cold front.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Through 06Z Friday . A mix of flight conditions through sunrise due to areas of dense fog and light winds. Fog and IFR/LIFR conditions most prevalent at KMPV and KPBG through 11/12Z, with only modest confidence at KRUT/KSLK. Elsewhere, including BTV, VFR to prevail overnight. After 12Z VFR expected as light south/southwest flow around 5 kts, trends northwesterly by afternoon. Approach of weak cold front from the north may spark a few/sct t-storms which may affect northern terminals after 22Z. While an isolated threat, brief gusty winds will be possible with any stronger cores with localized turbulence and tops to 450 AGL.

Outlook .

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR. Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . JMG SHORT TERM . Banacos LONG TERM . Banacos AVIATION . JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 20 mi45 min S 12 67°F 72°F1009 hPa (+0.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair66°F63°F90%1009.4 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi52 minN 01.75 miFog/Mist62°F61°F96%1008.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N4N5N9NW4NW6N5N6N9N7N6E5NE4N4SE3SW5S3CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN4N6N5NW4N5NW5NW7NW12NW16
G20
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NW13N5NW5S6--E4NE3SE4W3CalmN3CalmN4
2 days agoN5N7N9N10N8N8N9N7N10N9N6N6N7NW7NW9N8N10N6N7N7N6N6N6N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.