Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:15AM||Sunset 4:55PM||Tuesday January 26, 2021 10:15 PM EST (03:15 UTC)||Moonrise 3:39PM||Moonset 6:53AM||Illumination 99%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBTV 262335 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 635 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021
SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracking through the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and south of the region tonight will bring a light to moderate snow to the North Country this afternoon into Wednesday morning. Snow showers wane in coverage briefly Wednesday morning, but will increase again Wednesday afternoon into Thursday before drier and colder air arrives for the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 630 PM EST Tuesday . No big changes except to speed up onset of precipitation by about 2 hours. Otherwise forecast is on track. Previous discussion follows.
No major changes to the forecast made this afternoon as surface, satellite, and radar analysis show we remain on track for a light to moderate snow event across the region this afternoon through tonight. Initial band of warm air advection snow is reducing visibility to a half mile or less across central NY, and as this band moves northward through the North Country late this afternoon through the evening expect to see the same. This will drop a quick few inches of snow through midnight before the band lifts north and weakens where thereafter snow will become much lighter in nature for the remainder of the night where an additional half to 2" is expected. Overall by the Wednesday morning commute we're looking at 1-3" along and north of I89 in VT and Route 3 in northern New York, and 2-4" southward with locally high amounts of 4-6" in the higher terrain of Essex, NY and Rutland/Windsor counties where a winter wx advisory remains in place.
Snow showers taper off rapidly Wednesday morning as the parent low and mid-level vorticity shift offshore while a brief 500mb ridge builds in. Heading into the afternoon though, the flow shifting to the west-northwest combined with lingering low level moisture will redevelop some upslope snow across the region through the evening and early overnight hours with additional accumulations of a dusting to 2" possible.
Temps remain mild tonight through Wednesday with lows in the 20s and highs in the upper 20s to low 30s, but fall back to normal Wednesday night in the single digits across the Adirondacks to teens elsewhere.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 313 PM EST Tuesday . Changing weather is on the way for Thursday as the previously alluded to polar vortex descends on our forecast late in the day. A 100 kt northwest to southeast upper jet and cyclonic vorticity advection should promote the development of snow showers during the day. However, moisture is generally lacking with PWATs only around 0.15". There is enough moisture where it counts, the dendritic growth zone, which should allow us to squeeze out some snow. While accumulations will not be much, it will signal the upcoming change. Heading into the overnight hours, the combination of tightening pressure gradients and cold advection aloft will keep us well-mixed overnight. It will get pretty raw with lows in the single digits above and below zero while northwest winds blow around 20 to 25 mph. Based on these trends, wind chill advisories are more likely than not running into Friday due to wind chills less than -20 F.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 313 PM EST Tuesday . Cold and windy on Friday. With thicknesses falling below 500dm and 925mb temps around -20C, most of our forecast area will struggle to rise above the single digits (Fahrenheit). We will keep those 20 to 25 mph gusts into the early afternoon, at which point it we should see our flow decelerate. Saturday remains cold, but with less winds, and temperatures will gradually climb into the next week while remaining mostly dry.
Our next system of interest will move towards us Monday. There are still some differences with regard to the northward extent of precipitation, but one cannot ignore deeply-stacked close low pressure passing just to our south at this time of year. At least part of our forecast area should be impacted, generally southern and eastern Vermont would be the mostly likely spots. Ensemble probabilities of greater than 3 inches of snow in 24 hours has increased this forecast cycle, and the PoPs have been nudged upward accordingly. We'll have more details as we get closer.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Through 00Z Thursday . Conditions across the region have started to trend to IFR/MVFR in light snow from south to north by as low pressure moves into the region. At times visibility will drop to IFR in heavier bands of snow through about midnight, then snow becomes lighter in nature and vsby lifts to MVFR through 12Z. After 12Z, snowfall will rapidly taper off through mid-morning but MVFR ceilings will prevail. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts through the period.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ011- 012-019. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ034.
SYNOPSIS . Lahiff NEAR TERM . Lahiff/Neiles SHORT TERM . Haynes LONG TERM . Haynes AVIATION . Lahiff/Neiles
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|Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT||14 mi||22 min||ESE 3||6.00 mi||Light Snow||27°F||22°F||81%||1012.8 hPa|
|Plattsburgh International Airport , NY||24 mi||23 min||E 5||2.00 mi||Light Snow Fog/Mist||27°F||24°F||89%||1012.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KBTV
Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||E||NE||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||Calm||SE||S||S|
|2 days ago||NW||NW|
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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