Wednesday, August21, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 7:18 AM EDT (11:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:52PMMoonset 11:49AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 210854
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
454 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms return to the north
country today. A few stronger afternoon thunderstorms are
expected with gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. A cold front will follow late tonight into Thursday
morning, bringing a few additional light rain showers. Canadian
high pressure building into the region will ultimately bring
noticeably cooler and drier conditions, with high temperatures
generally in the 70s Friday through next Monday.

Near term through Thursday
As of 444 am edt Wednesday... Unsettled weather returns to the
north country today with a few strong to severe thunderstorms
and a localized threat of flash flooding.

Early this morning, we continue to monitor the evolution of
convectively induced mid-level vorticity MAX across nern ohio
and lake erie. Meanwhile, a developing sfc-850mb warm front and
strong surge of higher dewpoints higher pw values is beginning
to develop newd in advance of the vort across s-central ny into
the catskills. 850mb flow increasing to 25-30kt will aid in
moisture advection into nern ny and vt late this morning through
the afternoon hours. Overall, large-scale forcing will become
quite favorable for precipitation in the form of numerous
showers across our region late this morning through this
afternoon. However, the ongoing early am arrival of mid- level
clouds and potential shower activity suggest that the surface-
based instability may remain limited, and may mitigate a more
significant severe thunderstorm threat. At this point, it
appears best juxtaposition of low-level moisture and mid-level
forcing will line up across the adirondacks ewd across
central s-central vt. With instability limited, the greater
threat may be localized flash flooding, especially if training
thunderstorms develop... Which appears increasingly possible
given forcing along elongated east-west thermal moisture
boundary across our southern zones. Also have noted warm cloud
depths near 12kft, so rainfall should be efficient with expected
convection. Have indicated average rainfall amounts of 0.50" to
1", but localized totals in excess of 2" are indicated in 06z
run of the nam3km.

Could see a strong cell or two further north, but have lowered
daytime highs by several degrees (mainly 75-80f highs), and pbl
won't be quite as favorable for severe activity with marginal
surface heating. Localized flash flood and severe weather trends
will need to be monitored through the afternoon hours.

Best synoptic support passes east of the region by 22z or so,
and a trailing cold front will bring just a few additional rain
showers for the overnight hours into early Thursday morning.

Low temperatures tonight generally in the low-mid 60s. Pbl flow
will shift into the west for Thursday, with 2-m dewpoints
falling back into the 50s by early to mid afternoon hours.

Included just 20-30 pops for rain showers, mainly across the
adirondacks and green mtns, but should see partly sunny
conditions on balance across most of the forecast area.

Afternoon highs on Thursday will range from the low to mid 70s
for the adirondacks and st. Lawrence valley, to 75-81f from the
champlain valley ewd across central ERN vt.

Short term Thursday night through Friday
As of 253 am edt Wednesday... Upper level trough and associated cold
pool will move through the area between 15-18z on Friday bringing an
increase in cloudiness and a slight chance for showers across the
far northern parts of the nek. Very minimal elevated CAPE shown in
model soundings (barely even reaching 0 c in some locations) so
not expecting any thunder with these showers despite dry
adiabatic low level lapse rates. Winds remains generally out of
the west ahead of this shortwave passage so have kept
temperatures very near superblend MOS guidance with highs in the
mid upper 60s to low 70s. Winds turn out of the NW behind this
front which will bring below normal overnight lows in the low
40s to mid 50s across the area.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 253 am edt Wednesday... No major changes to overall synoptic
pattern and therefore forecast for the extended with high pressure
in control through early next week. Highly amplified pattern builds
in towards the end of the weekend with large scale ridging and
subsidence across new england. Slightly below to near normal
temperatures expected Saturday Sunday under mostly sunny skies. With
heights rising behind departing shortwave have offered a dry
forecast despite some guidance showing precipitation. After this,
model uncertainty increases after Sunday with differences in the
long wave pattern and quickness of large scale trough for midweek
next week.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 12z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through 13z
with increasing mid to upper level cloudiness from sw-ne. After
13z, combination of developing warm front across s-central ny
and approaching shortwave trough from the ERN great lakes will
bring increasingly numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms
to the north country TAF locations. During the 15-22z period,
should see generally overcast conditions with a mix ofVFR to
MVFR ceilings. Brief ifr intervals are also possible in any
heavier convective showers or thunderstorms. A few stronger
cells will contain gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. Winds
will increase from the s-sw at 10-12kt, with gusts to 20 kt
possible at times at btv. Should generally see a return toVFR
conditions tonight, though fog development is possible at
slk mpv 05-12z Thursday.


Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos
short term... Larocca
long term... Larocca
aviation... Banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45188 17 mi94 min 72°F
45178 20 mi79 min 61°F 73°F1012.4 hPa (+0.0)
45166 32 mi34 min SW 14 G 16 70°F 74°F1 ft61°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi25 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F57°F81%1013.2 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair58°F55°F90%1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmE3S33S3SE6SW6S7S9S5S8S5S4CalmCalmS5S4E3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoS15
2 days agoS5S6S7SW8SW8S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.