Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:15PM Monday December 16, 2019 4:53 AM EST (09:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 12:05PM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 160844 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 344 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cool and dry weather for the start of the work week with high pressure. A low pressure system tracking just to our south on Tuesday will bring light snow to the North Country with minor accumulations expected. A stronger low pressure system will move down from Canada on Wednesday and produce widespread snow showers with the potential for locally heavy snow and gusty winds. Cold conditions will prevail to the beginning of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 322 AM EST Monday . A dry and seasonable mid-December day on tap for the North Country. Mostly clear skies are forecast through the day, though there could be intervals of mid clouds here and there. Expect highs in the 20s to near 30 degrees. Overnight lows should fall into the teens for much of the region with clouds streaming north ahead of shortwave to impact the area during the day Tuesday.

Advertised Tuesday snow event still appears on track. A weak low will track towards the Delmarva and deepen some owing to favorable pattern for height falls. As the low slides to our south, some warm conveyor belt precipitation will make its way into our region late Tuesday morning and wrapping up towards midnight on Tuesday. Snow amounts remain largely unchanged with 2"-4" across the Adirondacks of New York and in south-central Vermont with amounts falling below 2" as you head north and west.

Forecast soundings continue to display some mixed signals for dendrite growth, though. Springfield and Rutland soundings indicate best saturation will occur while drier boundary layer air is being saturated followed by mid-level dry air filtering into the DGZ. Cobb- Waldstreicher SLR forecasting techniques indicate lower SLRs accordingly, and values are closer to 10:1. Additionally, the GFS continues to occasionally allow a bit of a warm nose to filter into Springfield or Rutland, though it is mostly alone in this. Considering this, these areas will struggle to see better snow growth, which will likely keep amounts tamped down below 4".

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 343 AM EST Monday . Shortwave trough and associated surface low depart eastward across the Gulf of Maine and south of Nova Scotia Tuesday night. Will see diminishing chances for snow showers during the Tuesday evening hours, with brief period of 850-700mb shortwave ridging bringing generally dry conditions after midnight. May see some partial clearing, and combined with diminishing winds, early AM lows should drop into the upper teens to lower 20s.

Focus on Wednesday will continue to be potential for snow squalls. Surface low reflection near Ottawa at 12Z Wednesday along approaching well-defined arctic cold front will entrain moisture and surface-based instability as it shifts into the St. Lawrence Valley around 15Z Wednesday. Frontal forcing continues to look impressive. Also noting that mid-upper level closed low will enhance deep-layer lapse rates and UVV in conjunction with the sfc-925mb frontogenesis. The 00Z NAM12 and BTV4kmWRF both indicate SBCAPE values of 100-150 J/kg in advance of the frontal zone, and potential for developing line of snow squall activity as front crosses nrn NY 15-18Z, and across VT 18-21Z based on current indications. BTV Snow Squall Parameter highlights much of the forecast area consistent with these diagnostic fields. Brief gusts to 35 mph along with whiteout conditions will be possible based on sharp frontal zone and associated wind fields/instability. Indicated PoPs around 60% during period of best deep-layer forcing. Should see a quick coating to 2" of snow, and quick WNWLY wind shift with the frontal passage Wednesday afternoon. Flash freeze potential is generally low, but road temperatures may rise above freezing in a few valleys of central/s-central VT, and will need to monitor that for higher potential road impacts (melting and refreezing of precipitation on road surfaces) from the expected snow squall activity. High temperatures on Wednesday generally 25-31F.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 343 AM EST Monday . Cold and dry conditions will generally characterize the long-term forecast period. The coldest air mass of the season is likely to start the period Wednesday night into Thursday. The core of lowest 1000-500mb thicknesses (~495dm) and coldest 850mb temperatures traverse the North Country during Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With WNW winds 10-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph, anticipate a period of 15 to 25 below wind chills values during the early morning hours on Thursday. May need a Wind Chill Advisory as we approach the event. Overnight lows will range from zero to -10F across nrn NY, and generally in the single digits above zero across central and northern VT. Will see ineffective sunshine Thursday (though a few mtn snow flurries remain possible) with highs only +5 to +12F across the region. High pressure building in thereafter should bring lighter wind conditions, and a gradual moderation of surface temperatures. After a good radiational cooling night Thursday night, temperatures should moderate into the upper teens/lower 20s on Friday, the mid/upper 20s on Saturday, and mid 30s in the valleys on Sunday. While significant snowfall is not foreseen, a warm frontal zone Saturday night into Sunday may bring light snowfall, and have indicated 20-30 PoPs at this time.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Through 06Z Tuesday . VFR conditions for the next 24 hours with west to northwest winds of 5 to 15 knots becoming south to southwesterly around 5 knots. Mostly clear skies, with the exception of brief intervals of scattered to broken cloud decks around 3000-5000ft agl at KRUT, KMSS, KSLK possible.

Outlook .

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Haynes NEAR TERM . Haynes SHORT TERM . Banacos LONG TERM . Banacos AVIATION . Haynes


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi59 minWNW 910.00 miFair20°F7°F57%1022.5 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi60 minVar 310.00 miFair19°F7°F59%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.