Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria Bay, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 132347 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 747 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. Fair weather will continue through the end of the week with increasing humidity and shower chances this weekend. Above normal temperatures will likewise continue until the passage of a cold front on Monday with below normal temperatures for much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. High pressure overhead tonight with just some scattered to broken mid and high level clouds at times. Low temps will be warmer than last night. Readings will fall to the mid to upper 50s for Southern Tier and cool spots of the North Country and stay in the low to mid 60s elsewhere. Overnight subsidence and radiation inversions may allow for patchy valley fog in the Southern Tier.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/. A slow evolution of the mid-level flow pattern looks to unfold through Saturday as a weak circulation in the mid-Mississippi Valley treks northeastward toward our region. This is associated with the right entrance region of a jet streak that will be transitioning northeastward during that time frame such that its right entrance region will be over western New York by Saturday. The GFS really tags on shower activity developing in association with this as deeper moisture advances into the region as evidenced by PWAT values running back up toward 1.5 inches. Other models are not quite as bullish with this development, but the GFS has been consistent, so it's difficult to rule out at this time. Chances of showers and thunderstorms have thus been maintained in increasingly soupy air by Saturday. In the interim, however, fair weather should remain.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The area will be sandwiched between the area of high pressure from earlier in the week and an approaching low from the Ohio Valley Saturday night. That said, mainly dry weather will persist in the North Country, while the southwestern portions of the forecast area will see chances for showers and thunderstorms increase. By Sunday, the area of high pressure will have receded across the Northeast into the Canadian Maritimes, allowing the surface low to push east into the Mid-Atlantic. This dwindles down to an increase in warm air and moisture advection into the region, promoting the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms Sunday.

A well defined upper level trough will push east across the Mid-West and eventually into the Northeast for the first half of the new work week. As the upper level trough approaches, its associated cold front will cross the central Great Lakes Sunday night before crossing the area on Monday. With its arrival and passage, expect the chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day on Monday.

As the front departs the region and enters the Northeast, chances for showers will decrease from west to east Monday night. Behind the departing system, a large area of high pressure will engulf much of the eastern half of the CONUS Tuesday before beginning to build overhead Wednesday and Thursday. Overall, the remainder of the forecast period will be dry, though conditions will be conducive to a few showers Tuesday as any residual instability mixes with the leftover moisture residing across the area.

Highs throughout the rest of the weekend through the first half of the work week will range in the 70s, with the exception of a couple of readings in the low 80s along the Lake Plains on Monday and Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure and light winds are expected through Friday morning. Northeast winds increase some on Friday afternoon, but otherwise still VFR. Patchy fog in the river valleys of the Southern Tier late tonight, but at this time expect it to stay east of KJHW.

Outlook .

Friday Night . Mainly VFR with local IFR in river valley fog late across the Southern Tier. Saturday through Monday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. Tuesday . VFR.

MARINE. High pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain overall light winds and waves on the lakes through tonight. High pressure drifts to the north Friday and Friday night while low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley. This will lead to an increasing northeast flow, with small craft headlines possible Friday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Fries NEAR TERM . Fries/JLA SHORT TERM . Fries LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Fries/JLA MARINE . Fries

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY	4 mi	59 min					1019.5 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY	31 mi	59 min		79°F	73°F		1019.8 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	71 mi	59 min	NNW 2.9 G 4.1	77°F			1018.9 hPa	69°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY	22 mi	57 min	NNE 6	10.00 mi	Fair	76°F	59°F	58%	1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGTB

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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