Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria Bay, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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Fxus61 kbuf 230916 afdbuf area forecast discussion national weather service buffalo ny 516 am edt Fri aug 23 2019 Synopsis Aside from a few diurnally driven showers this afternoon and a few lake enhanced showers south of lake ontario tonight into Saturday morning, a comfortably cool and dry weather pattern will be over western and central new york right through the weekend. There will be some typical inland valley fog during the overnight and early morning hours. The next chance of rain along with warmer weather won't return until next Tuesday or Wednesday. Near term through tonight Clear to partly cloudy skies will remain over the majority of our area through the first half of the morning. Valley fog continues to fill in across the southern tier and black river valleys as seen on the nighttime microphysics rgb satellite imagery. Aside from leftover valley fog across the southern tier and black river valleys through mid morning, high pressure will continue to build across the area from the nw. Expect some morning sunshine, followed by fairly rapid upslope induced inland stratocumulus. Appears now that diurnal heating and just enough low level moisture will combine with some added lift courtesy of a fairly sharp upper trough just upstream, to possibly produce a few light showers sprinkles this afternoon across the higher terrain south of lake ontario. Otherwise, expect a dry and comfortably cool august day with a mix of Sun and clouds elsewhere, with the most sunshine seen across the lower terrain and along the lakeshores. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s across the higher terrain to the lower 70s elsewhere. Tonight, a weak surface trough will push south across the lower great lakes, with a reinforcing push of cooler air right behind it. Winds will strengthen some and shift to north-northeasterly while 850mb temps drop a couple more degrees, bottoming out around +5c overnight. Meanwhile, a fairly potent shortwave rotating through the base of the mean upper trough will push south over the area. Despite low level anticyclonic flow and dry air in the low levels, there may be just enough lake enhanced moisture instability, that when combined with the potent shortwave energy aloft, may produce a few showers downwind of lake ontario on a north-northeasterly fetch. Any showers would be mainly focused across the higher terrain of the western finger lakes and the interior southern tier. Otherwise, outside of the typical valley fog, expect a dry and quite cool night elsewhere. Temperatures will indeed be chilly by latter august standards. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid 40s across the higher terrain, with lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Short term Saturday through Monday night Additional shortwave trough drifts across region on Saturday. This wave along with residual low-level moisture and continual cool air aloft and resulting over-water instability (h85 temps as low as +4c in the morning) will allow for the any isolated light lake effect showers that may develop tonight to persist into at least mid morning Saturday before diminishing. Otherwise, the residual moisture with daytime heating should result in expansion of fair weather stratocu and CU late morning into the afternoon especially over the southern tier and east of lake ontario thanks to upslope nne flow. High pressure at sfc then begins to build in during the afternoon which will diminish ne winds closer to lake ontario. Should see high temps pretty similar to values today, upper 60s higher terrain of southern tier and east of lk ontario, with low 70s elsewhere. On Saturday night, center of high pressure settles across southern quebec to new brunswick and prince edward island. Light winds and dry air tied to the high will allow another chilly night with some fog for the valleys of the southern tier and for areas east of lake ontario while mostly clear skies and temps in the mid 50s should cover things elsewhere. Into Sunday, as shortwave trough that drops across Saturday, slowly exits off the east coast will begin to see light low-level return flow develop. Looks like we'll gain a couple degrees at h85 compared to Saturday, so should see aftn highs on Sunday rebound into the low 70s in the southern tier and east of lake ontario, to the upper 70s elsewhere. After a mostly clear and still seasonably cool night on Sunday night, developing upper troughing from south central canada to the western great lakes will aid in sfc troughing from northern plains to the western great lakes. Monday should stay dry with a bit of increase in mid to high clouds. By Monday night, there are indications that shortwave drifting along base of primary trough could be enhanced by convection and make its way toward the lower great lakes overnight. Did not go as aggressive as GFS is in pushing this feature into western ny, but have included low-end chances. Better chances, at least through daybreak Tuesday, will probably stay west closer to axis of elevated instability and stronger low- level jet and upper-level jet. We'll solidly be within a stronger sse return low-level flow Monday into Monday night as high heads out

over the atlantic and sfc troughing moves over western great lakes. Majority of area will see highs upper 70s to near 80f on Monday while lows on Monday night will stay warm in the 50s to lower 60s with the stronger return flow. Only exception will be east of lake ontario where readings could dip into toward 50f. Return flow could turn gusty as pressure gradient tightens and pressure falls develop north of region. Increased gusts some, especially closer to lake ontario and lake erie. Long term Tuesday through Thursday Broad longwave trough over central canada will expand across the great lakes and eastern canada. Sfc flow will increase from the ssw into the lower great lakes Tuesday into Wednesday as main sfc low spins over northern ontario toward the southern shore of hudson bay sending a warm front across the lower great lakes into new england. Expect temps to rise above normal with upper 70s to low 80s a good landing point for now. Details remain murky about convection Tuesday with main issue focusing on how expansive convection will be along warm front. Gfs continues to be more aggressive in eastward push of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, showing QPF as far east as areas east of lake ontario, while ECMWF and canadian keep most of activity on Tuesday over western ny closer to approaching strong sw-ne oriented upper jet ahead of broad trough and also closer to axis of 1.75 to 2.0 inch pwats. Convective shortwave(s) riding into ny ahead of main trough will have to be watched as it could boost pops earlier, but going to go with slower idea from ECMWF and canadian given strength of incoming trough which will tend to amplify mid-upper level flow and keep most widespread precip closer to larger scale features. As initial cold front moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday, should be a greater chance of seeing widespread convection. Though mid to upper level winds will be brisk from the sw, any convection will have potential to produce heavy rain as pwats reach 2 inches and wbzero heights rise toward 14kft. Though it is pretty far out to hone in on the details, seems that greatest chances for showers and storms on Wednesday will be over our eastern areas toward finger lakes and east of lake ontario as cold front arrives there during the afternoon during peak heating MAX instability. If that timing holds and sufficient instability is present, there would be at least some risk of stronger storms given strong wind fields present. High pressure is then forecast to build across the region later Wednesday into Thursday behind the cold front. This will encourage the return of fair weather along with more comfortable humidity levels. Aviation 09z Friday through Tuesday Clear to partly cloudy skies will remain over the majority of our area through the first part of the morning. Excellent radiational cooling has led to the typical fog formation across the valleys of the southern tier, and even the black river valley. This may impact kjhw through early to mid morning with a period of ifr MVFR vsby, with the remainder of the area seeingVFR conditions. Cold air aloft will promote efficient low level cloud development today, especially across the higher terrain of the southern tier, where lowVFR CIGS (isolated MVFR interior southern tier this afternoon) will form. Expect few to scattered amounts of cloud coverage over the remainder of the area through the afternoon. Low level clouds will scatter out during the evening with the loss of daytime heating, leaving mainlyVFR conditions across the area through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions each late night and morning. Tuesday... MVFR possible with showers and thunderstorms. Marine Expect some light chop on both lakes today before winds briefly freshen out of the north-northeast later tonight through early Saturday morning. This will bring another round of choppy conditions on lake ontario, but again it looks like conditions will stay below small craft advisory criteria. Gradient flow will relax some later Saturday afternoon into Sunday as high pressure builds closer the lakes. This will promote light winds and diminishing waves. Buf watches warnings advisories Ny... None. Marine... None. Synopsis... Jm near term... Jm short term... Jla long term... Jla aviation... Jm marine... Jm

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY	4 mi	46 min			73°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY	31 mi	52 min		56°F	71°F		1016.7 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	71 mi	52 min	SE 2.9 G 4.1	61°F			1016.5 hPa	55°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY	22 mi	68 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	51°F	49°F	96%	1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGTB

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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