Sunday, December15, 2019
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alexandria Bay, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 4:24PM Sunday December 15, 2019 6:25 PM EST (23:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:06PMMoonset 10:34AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 551 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy early, then clearing.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds. A chance of snow.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear.
Friday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria Bay, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.36, -75.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 152156 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 456 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Limited lake effect snow will continue east of Lakes Erie and Ontario into tonight with minor additional accumulations. High pressure will build into the area and bring an end to the lake effect snow by Monday morning. Low pressure will then pass just south of the area late Monday night and Tuesday with periods of snow producing light accumulations for most of the area. Lake effect snow will develop again by Wednesday, with much colder air arriving for the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Strong low pressure down to 968mb drifting over northeast Quebec toward Labrador Canada will allow cyclonic westerly flow to remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes into this evening. This will continue to support some limited lake response. By this evening weak high pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes. This surface high and associated dry air and lowering inversion heights will force lake effect snow to diminish, but it may not end altogether.

Off Lake Erie .

A broad area of light lake effect snow showers is beginning to diminish, though a few narrower bands of moderate snow are still occurring. This may produce another 1-2 inches locally across higher terrain where the moderate bands persist the longest. These snow showers will gradually diminish in coverage and intensity into this evening as high pressure builds east across Lake Erie.

Latest mesoscale guidance suggests a weak band of snow showers may persist into the evening across Chautauqua County, and this may produce another inch or so of accumulation locally. Overnight boundary layer flow will become light, with any remaining lake effect snow showers focusing out over the lake in tea kettle fashion as land breeze circulations develop. If the lake snow survives the overnight a few snow showers may cross the Buffalo Metro area Monday morning as boundary layer flow briefly becomes southwesterly over Lake Erie. If this does occur, accumulations will be minimal.

Off Lake Ontario .

A more intermittent band of lake effect snow continues over southern Oswego County. This band will continue to drift south and weaken into this evening in response to slowly veering flow and drier air over Lake Ontario. Additional mainly diurnal type snow shower activity is also occurring over Jefferson and Lewis county over the higher terrain. Overall, additional accumulations of around an inch are possible where any snow showers persist the longest.

Tonight the lake effect snow bands will weaken as the airmass dries over Lake Ontario and inversion heights lower, but it will likely not dissipate entirely. A band of snow showers will continue mainly across northeast Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties with an additional 1-2 inches in persistent snows. Farther west, a few snow showers may clip the south shore of the lake at times through the first half of tonight, with a local dusting possible along and north of Route 104 in Orleans and Monroe counties. The lake effect snow will end by around daybreak Monday as boundary layer flow becomes weak, and inversion heights continue to lower.

Outside of these main lake effect areas, the few remaining snow showers from Lake Huron will end by late afternoon as the airmass continues to dry. It will then be dry overnight between the weakening lake bands, with some partial clearing. Lows will drop into the upper teens to lower 20s in most locations, with some single digits possible east of Lake Ontario.

On Monday an initial, weak baroclinic wave will move from west to east along a stalled frontal zone stretching from the Ohio Valley to southern Pennsylvania. This feature will spread a period of mid level clouds across our region during the morning and midday, but any precipitation will stay well south of the NY/PA line through the evening. Once any lingering lake effect snow showers end early in the morning, the rest of the day will be dry. Expect highs in the mid 30s in most locations, with 20s limited to Lewis County.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. The jet stream will intensify over the Northeast Monday night while surface low pressure moves across the Central Appalachians. A shortwave trough tracking across the Ohio Valley will follow behind the surface low, further deepening the surface low as it approaches southern New England Tuesday. Strong upper level divergence across the forecast area from a 180kt jet streak and a mid-level baroclinic zone will enter Western and North Central NY Monday night. Light snow will move into Western NY Monday evening and spread north- northeastward overnight. Light snow should encompass the entire forecast region overnight before tapering off in the west Tuesday. At this time, the best forcing remains to the south-southeast of the forecast area and while snow will likely be around for 12-18 hours Monday night-Tuesday, light accumulations of a few inches are expected. The surface low moves off Cape Cod Tuesday afternoon and most of the snow will end from west to east across the forecast area. There will be some lake enhancement moving into Tuesday evening as cold air advection begins. It won't be until late Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning when moisture increases from an upstream shortwave trough and a cold front approaches. This strong cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday morning. Steepening lapse rates with 850mb temperatures falling to -20C across western NY and -22C east of Lake Ontario by Wednesday afternoon will produce extreme lake induced instability. This coupled with moisture increasing from the west will result in snow showers across the region Wednesday. The risk for snow squalls continues Wednesday along and behind the cold front.

Lake effect snow bands will form ahead of the cold front early Wednesday morning northeast of the Lakes and will shift southward behind the cold front. Winds quickly become west-northwest through the afternoon and while it will be favorable for snow squalls, the quick change in wind direction will limit the amount of snow accumulation east of the Lakes. Snowfall accumulations will still likely reach headline criteria but the event will be short-lived off both lakes. Surface high pressure will track across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and dry air and subsidence will cause inversion heights to come down. Lake snows will slowly come to an end east of Lake Erie late Wednesday night and likely continue southeast of Lake Ontario into Thursday morning.

Below normal temperatures expected during this time with high temperatures in the low to mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures will range from the upper teens to low 20s Monday night to Wednesday night. Strong cold air advection and increase in winds will lead to wind chills below zero Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The eastern Great Lakes remains on the western side of a departing upper level trough Thursday. Lingering lake effect snow showers will persist Thursday as 850mb temperatures rise through the afternoon. A large scale ridge will move overhead late in the week which will suppress any snow showers and dry conditions expected into the weekend.

Model guidance is in some agreement that a closed low will track across the Lower 48 Saturday-Sunday and initiate cyclogenesis across the southern U.S. This will keep most of the activity well to our south however a northern stream shortwave trough may track across the Great Lakes Sunday-Monday bringing the chance for snow showers.

Temperatures will remain below normal however there will be a slight warming trend through the weekend.

AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Lake effect snow showers will continue east of the lakes late this afternoon, with a few narrow bands of moderate snow. VSBY will be IFR within the areas of lake effect snow, with a few snow showers briefly dropping VSBY blow 1SM. Off Lake Erie most of the snow showers will focus across the western Southern Tier, including KJHW. Off Lake Ontario, most of the snow showers will focus southeast of the lake from KFZY southwestward. Most, if not all of the lake effect snow showers should stay just north and east of KROC. CIGS will generally run MVFR in bands of lake effect snow showers, with VFR between the bands.

The snow showers will decrease in coverage and intensity through the rest of the evening, and then end altogether by Monday morning. Once the lake effect snow showers end, VFR will prevail Monday with a period of dry weather and some mid level clouds.

Outlook . Monday night . Light snow developing after 06Z with conditions deteriorating to IFR. Tuesday . IFR in light snow. Wednesday . IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, with VFR elsewhere. Thursday . IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes, VFR elsewhere. Friday . VFR.

MARINE. A strong low will continue to move northeast through eastern Quebec. Gale force winds on Lake Ontario will continue through mid to late afternoon before diminishing. Small Craft Advisory conditions will then linger through late tonight as winds gradually diminish.

Light winds will return by Monday. Another period of stronger winds will develop late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a strong cold front crosses the region. This will bring the next round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the eastern Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. West gales on Lake Ontario will produce significant wave action on the east half of the lake, and combine with high lake levels to increase the risk of lakeshore flooding. Wind direction is expected to be nearly due west for the duration of the strong winds, which will drive the higher risk of Lakeshore flooding to areas from about Fair Haven eastward where the shoreline is more perpendicular to a west wind. Farther west along the south shore of Lake Ontario, winds will be parallel to the shoreline.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ005>007. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045- 063>065. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-024.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . HSK AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA MARINE . Hitchcock TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 4 mi56 min 1016.2 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 31 mi62 min 24°F 1015.2 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 71 mi56 min WNW 29 G 35

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last
24hr
W21
G34
W31
W34
W35
G45
W38
W35
G46
W34
G44
W32
G40
W36
G47
W34
G42
W33
G40
W36
G45
W31
G44
W31
G38
W33
G41
W28
G40
W36
G44
W33
G40
W35
G46
W33
G42
W33
G42
NW31
G39
NW27
G36
NW24
G34
1 day
ago
SE3
G8
SE6
G9
SE3
G9
S3
G6
SE2
NE2
N1
NE1
E3
--
NE1
NW2
NE4
NE2
G5
NW5
NE5
NE6
NE5
N5
NW7
N12
G15
NW16
W20
G26
2 days
ago
SE6
G12
SE10
G13
SE11
G16
SE9
G12
S8
G13
S10
G16
S12
G22
S14
G22
S14
G19
S15
G22
S15
G21
S14
G21
S13
G19
S14
G20
S15
G20
S15
G21
S16
G23
S13
G19
S14
G20
S9
G16
S11
G16
S9
G13
SE7
G11
SE7
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi90 minWNW 10 G 2010.00 miOvercast25°F13°F61%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGTB

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last 24hrW8W8W10W11
G19
--W14
G25
W15
G24
W16
G22
W14
G23
W14
G27
W14
G24
W14
G26
W12
G19
W12
G23
W12
G26
W10
G22
W18
G30
W11
G26
W14
G30
W17
G31
W13
G23
W11
G19
W10
G20
W10
G17
1 day agoSE7SE5--SE3S10S6SE3E4E8NE5NE3NE6N3NE5NE8NE7N5N6NE6NE5NE7NW6NW4Calm
2 days agoE5SE10SE13
G19
S13SE13SE13SE11SE13SE8SE10SE13S13SE10SE15S11SE10S12S11S12S17
G23
S11
G18
SE11SE13SE11

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.