Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria Bay, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 152156 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 456 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Limited lake effect snow will continue east of Lakes Erie and Ontario into tonight with minor additional accumulations. High pressure will build into the area and bring an end to the lake effect snow by Monday morning. Low pressure will then pass just south of the area late Monday night and Tuesday with periods of snow producing light accumulations for most of the area. Lake effect snow will develop again by Wednesday, with much colder air arriving for the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Strong low pressure down to 968mb drifting over northeast Quebec toward Labrador Canada will allow cyclonic westerly flow to remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes into this evening. This will continue to support some limited lake response. By this evening weak high pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes. This surface high and associated dry air and lowering inversion heights will force lake effect snow to diminish, but it may not end altogether.

Off Lake Erie .

A broad area of light lake effect snow showers is beginning to diminish, though a few narrower bands of moderate snow are still occurring. This may produce another 1-2 inches locally across higher terrain where the moderate bands persist the longest. These snow showers will gradually diminish in coverage and intensity into this evening as high pressure builds east across Lake Erie.

Latest mesoscale guidance suggests a weak band of snow showers may persist into the evening across Chautauqua County, and this may produce another inch or so of accumulation locally. Overnight boundary layer flow will become light, with any remaining lake effect snow showers focusing out over the lake in tea kettle fashion as land breeze circulations develop. If the lake snow survives the overnight a few snow showers may cross the Buffalo Metro area Monday morning as boundary layer flow briefly becomes southwesterly over Lake Erie. If this does occur, accumulations will be minimal.

Off Lake Ontario .

A more intermittent band of lake effect snow continues over southern Oswego County. This band will continue to drift south and weaken into this evening in response to slowly veering flow and drier air over Lake Ontario. Additional mainly diurnal type snow shower activity is also occurring over Jefferson and Lewis county over the higher terrain. Overall, additional accumulations of around an inch are possible where any snow showers persist the longest.

Tonight the lake effect snow bands will weaken as the airmass dries over Lake Ontario and inversion heights lower, but it will likely not dissipate entirely. A band of snow showers will continue mainly across northeast Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties with an additional 1-2 inches in persistent snows. Farther west, a few snow showers may clip the south shore of the lake at times through the first half of tonight, with a local dusting possible along and north of Route 104 in Orleans and Monroe counties. The lake effect snow will end by around daybreak Monday as boundary layer flow becomes weak, and inversion heights continue to lower.

Outside of these main lake effect areas, the few remaining snow showers from Lake Huron will end by late afternoon as the airmass continues to dry. It will then be dry overnight between the weakening lake bands, with some partial clearing. Lows will drop into the upper teens to lower 20s in most locations, with some single digits possible east of Lake Ontario.

On Monday an initial, weak baroclinic wave will move from west to east along a stalled frontal zone stretching from the Ohio Valley to southern Pennsylvania. This feature will spread a period of mid level clouds across our region during the morning and midday, but any precipitation will stay well south of the NY/PA line through the evening. Once any lingering lake effect snow showers end early in the morning, the rest of the day will be dry. Expect highs in the mid 30s in most locations, with 20s limited to Lewis County.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. The jet stream will intensify over the Northeast Monday night while surface low pressure moves across the Central Appalachians. A shortwave trough tracking across the Ohio Valley will follow behind the surface low, further deepening the surface low as it approaches southern New England Tuesday. Strong upper level divergence across the forecast area from a 180kt jet streak and a mid-level baroclinic zone will enter Western and North Central NY Monday night. Light snow will move into Western NY Monday evening and spread north- northeastward overnight. Light snow should encompass the entire forecast region overnight before tapering off in the west Tuesday. At this time, the best forcing remains to the south-southeast of the forecast area and while snow will likely be around for 12-18 hours Monday night-Tuesday, light accumulations of a few inches are expected. The surface low moves off Cape Cod Tuesday afternoon and most of the snow will end from west to east across the forecast area. There will be some lake enhancement moving into Tuesday evening as cold air advection begins. It won't be until late Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning when moisture increases from an upstream shortwave trough and a cold front approaches. This strong cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday morning. Steepening lapse rates with 850mb temperatures falling to -20C across western NY and -22C east of Lake Ontario by Wednesday afternoon will produce extreme lake induced instability. This coupled with moisture increasing from the west will result in snow showers across the region Wednesday. The risk for snow squalls continues Wednesday along and behind the cold front.

Lake effect snow bands will form ahead of the cold front early Wednesday morning northeast of the Lakes and will shift southward behind the cold front. Winds quickly become west-northwest through the afternoon and while it will be favorable for snow squalls, the quick change in wind direction will limit the amount of snow accumulation east of the Lakes. Snowfall accumulations will still likely reach headline criteria but the event will be short-lived off both lakes. Surface high pressure will track across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and dry air and subsidence will cause inversion heights to come down. Lake snows will slowly come to an end east of Lake Erie late Wednesday night and likely continue southeast of Lake Ontario into Thursday morning.

Below normal temperatures expected during this time with high temperatures in the low to mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures will range from the upper teens to low 20s Monday night to Wednesday night. Strong cold air advection and increase in winds will lead to wind chills below zero Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The eastern Great Lakes remains on the western side of a departing upper level trough Thursday. Lingering lake effect snow showers will persist Thursday as 850mb temperatures rise through the afternoon. A large scale ridge will move overhead late in the week which will suppress any snow showers and dry conditions expected into the weekend.

Model guidance is in some agreement that a closed low will track across the Lower 48 Saturday-Sunday and initiate cyclogenesis across the southern U.S. This will keep most of the activity well to our south however a northern stream shortwave trough may track across the Great Lakes Sunday-Monday bringing the chance for snow showers.

Temperatures will remain below normal however there will be a slight warming trend through the weekend.

AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Lake effect snow showers will continue east of the lakes late this afternoon, with a few narrow bands of moderate snow. VSBY will be IFR within the areas of lake effect snow, with a few snow showers briefly dropping VSBY blow 1SM. Off Lake Erie most of the snow showers will focus across the western Southern Tier, including KJHW. Off Lake Ontario, most of the snow showers will focus southeast of the lake from KFZY southwestward. Most, if not all of the lake effect snow showers should stay just north and east of KROC. CIGS will generally run MVFR in bands of lake effect snow showers, with VFR between the bands.

The snow showers will decrease in coverage and intensity through the rest of the evening, and then end altogether by Monday morning. Once the lake effect snow showers end, VFR will prevail Monday with a period of dry weather and some mid level clouds.

Outlook . Monday night . Light snow developing after 06Z with conditions deteriorating to IFR. Tuesday . IFR in light snow. Wednesday . IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, with VFR elsewhere. Thursday . IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes, VFR elsewhere. Friday . VFR.

MARINE. A strong low will continue to move northeast through eastern Quebec. Gale force winds on Lake Ontario will continue through mid to late afternoon before diminishing. Small Craft Advisory conditions will then linger through late tonight as winds gradually diminish.

Light winds will return by Monday. Another period of stronger winds will develop late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a strong cold front crosses the region. This will bring the next round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the eastern Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. West gales on Lake Ontario will produce significant wave action on the east half of the lake, and combine with high lake levels to increase the risk of lakeshore flooding. Wind direction is expected to be nearly due west for the duration of the strong winds, which will drive the higher risk of Lakeshore flooding to areas from about Fair Haven eastward where the shoreline is more perpendicular to a west wind. Farther west along the south shore of Lake Ontario, winds will be parallel to the shoreline.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ005>007. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045- 063>065. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-024.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . HSK AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA MARINE . Hitchcock TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY	4 mi	56 min					1016.2 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY	31 mi	62 min		24°F			1015.2 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	71 mi	56 min	WNW 29 G 35

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY	22 mi	90 min	WNW 10 G 20	10.00 mi	Overcast	25°F	13°F	61%	1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGTB

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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