Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Castine, ME

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 7:35PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 10:37 PM EDT (02:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 10:28AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 902 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Showers with tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to variable to less than one quarter nm after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 902 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will remain nearby tonight as a warm front gradually moves toward the waters from the southwest. This warm front will move over the local waters on Wednesday along with a good chance of showers and Thunderstorms. A cold front moves across the waters Thursday morning with high pressure and fair weather moving in for Friday and the weekend. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castine, ME
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location: 44.39, -68.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 210116 aab
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
916 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will approach from the southwest late tonight and
slowly move northward on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms
will become increasingly likely during the day on Wednesday. A
few severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and
early evening. A cold front will sweep across the region
Thursday morning allowing for cooler and drier air to move into
northern new england. High pressure will build in over the
weekend and into Monday allowing for fair weather.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
915 pm update...

a nice night is in progress with mostly clear skies and light
winds, allowing temperatures to drop. Adjusted temperatures and
dew points slightly for this update.

610 pm update...

no significant changes are needed to the forecast for the
evening and overnight hours. The sea breeze in maine has made it
to near a limington, casco, lewiston to alna line and has
allowed cooler air to penetrate inland. In nh it has reached
central rockingham and strafford counties. Much of the area
still has dew points in the 40s and 50s, and while these will
increase slowly overnight, temperatures will drop into the 50s
and 60s with decent radiational cooling effects expected.

Temperatures as well as winds were adjusted for current trends.

Previous discussion...

a beautiful, sunny afternoon will give way to a clear evening
with light winds. Radiational cooling should take place for much
of the night which will allow for some cool overnight lows and
possibly some valley fog. A warm front will approach from the
southwest late tonight with some increasing clouds across
southern zones toward dawn and perhaps an isolated shower or
thunderstorm by 12z.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
A short wave trough will approach from the west on Wednesday as
a sfc warm front sharpens up over southern new england and
gradually moves northward. This setup will allow for the return
of much higher dewpoints during the day, especially across
southern zones.

The entire forecast area is in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms on Wednesday as the short wave trough moves
eastward and yields increasing forcing for ascent as the day
progresses. Showers and thunderstorms are a very good bet.

However, there are complicating factors for severe
thunderstorms. First, the morning and early afternoon warm air
advection will spread clouds and elevated showers and some
non-severe thunderstorms across portions of the region. This
would limit instability if they are widespread enough. There are
significant differences in solutions with regard to that at this
time. In addition, there is also a considerable spread in
solutions with respect to the degree of onshore flow on the
coastal plain. A cooler solution on the coastal plain such as
what the 3 km NAM projects would limit potential significantly
on the coastal plain.

A close inspection of several cams as well as ensembles such as
the SPC href and SPC sref reveals somewhat of a consensus in
that the best chances for severe weather will be over southern
new hampshire and southernmost me. This is where the highest
moisture content will be and likely the best sfc convergence in
the vicinity of a warm front. At this time, placed enhanced
tstm wording along and south of a line roughly from kleb to
kpwm. However, this is a fluid situation with a few moving parts
so the main target area could change some.

Cams show varying modes of thunderstorms - mainly line segments
with damaging wind potential. But several show mixed modes as
well with multicells and a few supercells possible. This makes
sense with gradually increasing deep layer shear as the
afternoon progresses. Damaging straight line winds will be the
main threat, but one or two tornadoes cannot be ruled out,
especially near the warm front across southernmost zones. Again,
the greatest threat for severe weather appears to be near and
south of a kleb-kpwm line but cannot be ruled out north of there
if sufficient instability builds.

Thunderstorms move offshore early Wednesday evening allowing for
a relatively quiet night. However, with actual cold front still
to the west we cannot rule out a few showers and thunderstorms
overnight.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Longwave pattern across the northern hemisphere shows a typical
late summer pattern of engorged subtropical ridges and a series
of troughs and ridges in the northward shifted jet stream. One
of the more substantial troughs will be over southeast canada on
Thursday driving a series of cold fronts through our area. The
first will have departed offshore with the thunderstorms
Wednesday evening, but another moves through on Thursday with
the cooler air not arriving until Thursday night. Thus expect
another warm day Thursday with a slight chance of a shower or
storm as the next boundary moves through during the afternoon.

If a storm were to form, the wind shear available would favor
supercell formation, but the amount of instability available is
a bit iffy considering dry advection. But if enough instability
develops ahead of the boundary we could have some storms to deal
with.

The cooler and drier air finally moves in in force Thursday
night with high pressure over the great lakes building east
through the weekend. This will set up a period of mild weather
and mostly sunny conditions. The only exception could be Friday
as the upper trough moves nearby, possibly close enough to
generate some afternoon showers mainly in the northeast part of
the area.

While upper level ridging builds over quebec and new england,
the warm air streaming into this recently fattening ridge is
rather limited so expect temperatures near normal even as the
surface high builds eastward early next week. The next trough
moves into the great lakes on Monday though it's a bit uncertain
how quickly it moves east and begins affecting our area midweek.

Aviation 01z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term...VFR tonight with some valley fog possible in the
interior. Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely
by mid to late morning Wednesday, with highest chances between
between 19z and 00z. Thereafter, low clouds and fog may form,
especially in valleys and along the coast.

Long term... Aside from a stray shower or storm Thursday
afternoon, expect mostlyVFR conditions through the weekend.

Some early morning fog is also possible each morning in the
interior valleys.

Marine
Short term... Conditions are likely to remain below sca
thresholds tonight through Wednesday night. However,
thunderstorms could make for locally rough conditions late
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Long term... A series of cold fronts moves across the gulf of
maine Thursday and Thursday night with winds becoming light
west to northwest through the weekend as high pressure builds
in.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Hanes
short term... Ekster
long term... Kimble


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 25 mi94 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 65°F 64°F1 ft1016.7 hPa
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 32 mi68 min W 5.1 G 7 73°F 61°F1016.7 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 42 mi94 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 56°F2 ft1017.2 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 42 mi48 min 64°F 1017 hPa (+0.5)61°F

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME23 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair65°F59°F81%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHB

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NW4N64NW4NW4N7N56NW5S7W4SW4SW3S3Calm
1 day agoCalmE3E3E5CalmCalmCalmNE3E4E4E5E6E3E3S6S11S9S13
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2 days agoSE4CalmE3CalmCalmSE4N3CalmCalmCalm3CalmE5E4SE6CalmS4S5SE3S4CalmCalmE3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Castine, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Castine
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Tue -- 02:32 AM EDT     10.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:40 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:55 PM EDT     10.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:00 PM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.88.91010.19.17.24.72.51.10.91.73.55.889.5109.47.95.73.41.71.11.63.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Point, Penobscot River, Maine
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Fort Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:33 AM EDT     10.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:40 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:56 PM EDT     10.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:00 PM EDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.9910.210.39.37.34.82.51.10.91.83.55.98.19.710.29.68.15.83.51.71.11.73.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.