Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Searsport, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 3:56PM Monday December 16, 2019 6:16 AM EST (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:50PMMoonset 11:47AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 538 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until noon est today...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..N winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Snow likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
ANZ100 538 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Westerly winds continue to diminish today as a narrow surface ridge of high pressure builds across the waters. The next low pressure system tracks south of the gulf of maine on Tuesday and will spread snow over the coastal waters. Another trough of low pressure will cross the waters Wednesday into early Thursday with gusty winds and snow showers in its wake. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Searsport, ME
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location: 44.45, -68.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 160840 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 340 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the area today. Low pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley towards southern New England will bring mainly light snow to the area Tuesday. Snow showers are possible Wednesday followed by gusty winds and much colder air for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Narrow surface ridge of high pressure building across the forecast area today will allow any remaining gusty winds to diminish. It may take a little longer for Ern portions of the forecast area . but the overall trend will be lighter winds thru the afternoon hours. Otherwise sunny but cool temps during the day.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. I do not have high confidence in the low temp forecast for the overnight period. We start with surface ridging which will start to retreat thru the night. So we may see quick drop in temps and a leveling off for the rest of the night. The question is how long temps drop for before that occurs. So there is some bust potential on the cold side of the current forecast. We may also see some clouds encroach on Srn zones with the right entrance region of the upper jet drifting NEwd towards the area overnight.

The real concern of the forecast starts most likely after sunrise Tue morning with snow breaking out over the forecast area. A S/WV trof near the Four Corners region will induce a wave along the baroclinic zone draped over the Tennessee Valley that will move NEwd thru Tue evening. The S/WV trof will more or less shear out over the Northeast . but the initial forcing will be in the form of fairly strong WAA. Model guidance supports strong sloped ascent over much of the region . and likely a fairly broad shield of precip rather than a concentrated band. Even the most mild of forecasts aloft keeps the mixing confined to extreme Srn NH . so the event is most likely all snow for the forecast area. There are lingering questions though as to how efficient snow growth with be. Model guidance continues to show a relatively dry snow growth zone that at the very least would keep snow ratios on the low side. Snow ratio grids attempt to get at that across the Srn third or so of the forecast area. More consistent saturation is shown thru the middle of the the forecast area . so higher ratios and higher storm total snowfall is possible in a band from LEB thru IZG. The 16.00z EPS is still showing plenty of members that struggle to get QPF very far N into the forecast area . and some high-res guidance is showing a fairly dry forecast locally as well. I have forecast a broad swatch of 1 to 3 inches across the Srn two thirds of the forecast area . but that may even be too high for some areas. Given the aforementioned concerns I have not issued a winter wx advisory for Tue. The other consideration was the morning commute and timing of snow . but guidance has been continually slowing the onset down . and I am not confident that snow starts before the commute is winding down. I will let the day shift get one more look today with a wider range of high-res guidance to examine.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in decent agreement on the long wave pattern through late this week. We begin the period with broad west-southwest flow aloft in advance of an upper trough over the central CONUS. The trough will translate east with an upper low dropping into New England on Thursday before heights begin to rise with an approaching upstream ridge. by next weekend . considerable uncertainty in sensible weather as models have a tough time with amount of interaction between northern and southern stream impulses In the dailies. southern stream impulse and associated ocean low vicinity of the 40N/70W benchmark slide well offshore by Wednesday morning. The CWA is on the northwest periphery of the precipitation shield with any measurable QPF likely confined to southern and coastal sections. A northern stream impulse and closed low follow quickly on the heels of the departing ocean low late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Associated arctic cold front is likely to produce a few mountain snow squalls with its passage Wednesday night. Models all suggest an east-west trough briefly forms from the Gulf of Maine into mid coast Maine and produces at least some light accumulating snow However. the exact location remains uncertain at this time. A fresh arctic airmass will bring well below normal temperatures Thursday and Thursday night with a gusty Northwest wind making for a bitterly cold day Thursday. Winds drop off by early Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds across the area for Friday into Saturday. Unsettled weather returns by the second half of the weekend.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through Tuesday/ . VFR expected thru at least Tue morning. An approaching wave of low pressure will spread SN across the area generally after 12z Tue. Expect conditions to rapidly deteriorate LIFR as SN begins in the morning. There is some lower confidence in how long lower VSBY lasts as SN intensity may let up towards midday. That being said much of the day should feature IFR or lower conditions at all terminals . except for possibly HIE and AUG on the Nrn edge of precip shield.

Long Term .

Tue night . Areas of IFR psb in -SN at coastal TAF sites. N SFC wind gusting up to 35 kt.

Wed PM - Thu AM . MVFR in mtn shsn with brief lcl IFR in snow squalls. Areas of MVFR psb vcnty of Penobscot Bay in -SN Thu AM.

Thu . NW SFC wind gusting to 30 kt.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tuesday/ . Winds continue to diminish on the waters this morning Bays have been converted to SCAs. and gale warnings will likely be able to expire and convert to SCAs on time at 6 AM. SCA conditions continue into midday for the bays . and outside the bays into the evening. SN overspreads the waters Tue morning . and by late afternoon NE winds and seas may be approaching SCA thresholds.

Long Term .

Wed . SCA's possible.

Thu . Gales likely.

Fri . SCA's likely outside the bays.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ151-153. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ150-152- 154.



NEAR TERM . Legro SHORT TERM . Legro LONG TERM . Schwibs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 28 mi73 min NW 16 G 25 25°F 2 ft1015.7 hPa
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 38 mi47 min NW 14 G 20 22°F 41°F1015.3 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 49 mi73 min WNW 23 G 29 28°F 45°F9 ft1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bangor, Bangor International Airport, ME25 mi24 minWNW 10 G 1810.00 miFair19°F0°F43%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBGR

Wind History from BGR (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmE7SE5SE3CalmS4NW4CalmCalmCalmSE4SE7SE10SE8SE6E9SE12

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Point, Penobscot River, Maine
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Fort Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:28 AM EST     10.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:35 PM EST     11.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:56 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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910.210.18.96.84.11.80.60.82.34.77.51011.411.610.48.15.12.20-0.7-0.11.74.3

Tide / Current Tables for Castine, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Castine
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:27 AM EST     10.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:34 PM EST     11.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:56 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.8109.98.86.641.80.60.82.34.67.49.811.211.310.2852.10-0.7-0.11.74.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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