Monday, August3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kewaunee, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:13PM Monday August 3, 2020 12:21 PM CDT (17:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:42PMMoonset 5:18AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ542 Expires:202008032215;;871418 Fzus53 Kgrb 031507 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 1007 Am Cdt Mon Aug 3 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-541>543-032215- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1007 Am Cdt Mon Aug 3 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..N wind veering ne 15 to 25 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft on the bay, and 4 to 7 ft on the lake. Scattered sprinkles and showers.
Tonight..N wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft on the bay, and slowly subsiding to 3 to 5 ft on the lake. A chance of sprinkles.
Tuesday..N wind diminishing to 10 to 20 kts. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Partly cloudy. The small craft advisory may need to be extended into Tuesday morning.
Tuesday night..NW wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly clear.
LMZ542


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kewaunee, WI
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location: 44.45, -87.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 031651 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1151 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Somewhat autumn-like with cool temperatures and a few showers or sprinkles the next couple days, then warmer with temperatures increasing to at least a little above normal by the weekend.

The persistent eastern North American longwave trough will complete an amplification cycle and sharpen into a closed upper low over Ontario during the next couple days. A substantial pattern change will take place thereafter, with the upper flow transitioning back to a much lower amplitude regime. The new pattern will consist of a zonal band of westerlies across Canada and the northern U.S., with the subtropical ridge stretched out across the central and southern CONUS.

Cool weather is expected the next couple days, with temperatures 8-12F degrees below normal. But the transition back to the low- amplitude regime will bring warming, with readings returning to at least slightly above normal by the weekend. The developing pattern will be more favorable for precipitation than the one we've been in for the past week. But it will take much of the forecast period to become fully established. So the potential for significant rainfall will be back-weighted into the end of the forecast period. As such, the best estimate is that amounts for the 7 day period will end up near or somewhat below normal.

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Tuesday Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

No change to forecast headlines this morning. Gusty north to northeast winds are expected today into tonight. That will lead to rough waters on the lake and bay, and conditions hazardous to small craft. The wave action at the shoreline will also result in a high swim risk at the beaches, and could lead to some erosion along the lakeshore. North flow of 10-20 mph has already driven water levels up over the southern Bay of Green Bay. Levels have come down a bit the past few hours as we progress through the cyclic min in water level. But winds will veer to a more favorable NE direction and increase a little more during the morning. Water displacement forecasts suggest there will probably be at least two cyclic peaks that coincide with the more favorable winds. So expect levels to exceed those last evening by at least a couple tenths of a foot. The bottom line is that minor flooding of low areas near there southern end of the bay is likely. The potential for some flooding along the west shore toward Oconto will increase as the winds turn more northeast.

Otherwise, the main forecast issues were clouds and the chance for light showers/sprinkles. The overall scenario depicted by the models was for diurnal cloudiness to develop today, dissipate tonight, and reform on Tuesday. While the daytime clouds are a good bet, not so sure there will be as much clearing as indicated by the models tonight. There was a large mass of clouds with 4-6K ft bases dropping south across Lake Superior and much of southern Ontario early this morning. It seems unlikely these will totally dissipate before reaching the area, so there should be at least patches of clouds passing through tonight. In addition, north flow across Lake Superior could add some lower based clouds as well. So trended toward a cloudier forecast, and would not be surprised to need to push even more in that direction with later issuances. The higher amount of clouds also suggested mins may stay up some despite the CAA that will occur.

The sharpening large scale trough also looks like it will be close enough to the area to generate some light showers or sprinkles at times. Water vapor satellite imagery showed two distinct mid- level vorts dropping SSW across southern Ontario. Once will swing across the area this afternoon, so added low PoPs for showers across most of the area for the mid-day and afternoon. The second will probably clip the northeast corner of the area tonight. The NAM and GFS showed QG forcing for subsidence overnight. The ECWMF on the other hand strengthened QG forcing for ascent just to the east of the area, and then pulled it back into the area overnight. That would much better fit with the track of the second vort evident on satellite. Lingered sprinkles across the E/NE for much of the night. May need to eventually add a slight chance of showers or sprinkles for Tuesday as well, but held off on that for now as the presence of smaller scale support is not as clear this far in advance.

Primarily used a broad based blend of guidance products for temperatures.

LONG TERM. Tuesday Night Through Sunday Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

The main highlight from this forecast period is the evolution of the upper-level pattern to a zonal flow, which will bring above normal temperatures for the weekend as well as chances for showers and storms.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . A surface high pressure system overhead will keep conditions dry for the region during this time period. In addition, weak upper-level ridging will allow high temperatures on Wednesday to rise, however remain below normal.

Wednesday night through Thursday . An upper-level shortwave, behind the weak upper-level ridge, will move across the Upper Mississippi Valley over the course of this time period. The influence from the shortwave and WAA increasing in afternoon will present the small chance for showers and storms to develop on Thursday. With instability, shear, and mid-level lapse rates looking sparse, the likelihood of storms appears low. Given the uncertainty with the finer details (timing and coverage), kept the blend of models slight chance PoPs for now.

Rest of the extended . As the shortwave exits to the east, upper- level ridging will build into the region for Friday. At the same time, south/southwest low-level winds and WAA will allow temperatures to rise near normal for Friday and above normal for Saturday and Sunday. Although the bulk of the moisture associated with this WAA appears to stay west of the region for Friday, cannot rule out the small chance for isolated diurnally driven showers/storms to develop. The upper-level ridging will flatten to a zonal flow into Saturday. This will result in additional chances for showers and storms this weekend from any embedded shortwaves. In fact, model guidance is suggesting a shortwave passing over the region sometime between Saturday and Sunday. Since this is much further into the extended and is a bit fuzzy, kept the blend of models low chance PoPs.

AVIATION. for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

MVFR CIGS across east-central Wisconsin should lift into the VFR category by early to mid afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected over the remainder of the region with CIGS of four to six thousand feet. Gusty north/northeast winds can be expected this afternoon with gusts to around 20 kts. VFR CIGS expected tonight and Tuesday. CIGS expected to become BKN between four and six thousand feet again late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for WIZ022-040-050.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ022-039- 040-050-074.

SYNOPSIS . Skowronski SHORT TERM . Skowronski LONG TERM . Hykin AVIATION . Eckberg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 1 mi52 min N 4.1 G 14 63°F 1018.4 hPa
45014 28 mi82 min SSW 18 G 21 64°F 1018.6 hPa
GBWW3 28 mi142 min NNE 12 G 19 61°F 1018 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 45 mi52 min NNE 18 G 20 64°F 75°F1019.1 hPa51°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI23 mi26 minN 910.00 miOvercast62°F54°F75%1019.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTW

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE6E8SE10E5NE4CalmE3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3N56NE8E8
2 days agoSE6SE7SE10SE7E6N5--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmNW4NW5N5N544NE54

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.