Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dennison, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:33PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 7:28 PM CDT (00:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:02PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dennison, MN
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location: 44.46, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 060016 AAA AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 716 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

We've been in full retreat mode with pulling back PoPs during the short term, despite the fact that we have a fairly strong circulation approaching Aberdeen this afternoon. The problem is the instability has stayed back across the Dakotas. So although we have background lift from the vorticity advection with the wave, this lift is happening in a relatively stable environment, so all we've done is create stratiform type clouds in the mid-levels, with a diurnally driven cu-field underneath. Did leave some slight chance pops out in western MN, closer to where the path of the upper low is forecast to go, but models show what we see now continuing through the rest of the day, very sparse, if any precip.

Today, there is a little better support for precip developing down by Fairmont at the nose of a weak nocturnal LLJ develops, but kept pops in the slight range until it becomes more obvious we'll actually be able to develop precip in the environment.

For Thursday, we'll see surface dewpoints increase, along with CAPE, with HREF showing 1000-2000 j/kg of sbCAPE developing west of I-35. Although we may add moisture and instability tomorrow for seeing thunderstorm generation, we loose the lift. We'll rising heights and no discernible surface boundary to focus mesoscale lift, which means Thursday looks mainly dry as well. Just left some slight chances for thunderstorms along the instability axis the HREF highlights.

For Thursday night, kept it dry, even though we see weak h85 theta-e advection as southerly winds develop at this level. The NMM and NAMnest do develop some storms in western MN Thursday night, but until confidence increases that we'll actually see anything develop, kept Thursday night dry.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Not much has changed with the long term, with warm and humid conditions expected this weekend, while a front early next week brings some relief from the high dewpoints anyways by the middle of next week.

For Friday/Friday night, models are starting to trend toward what the ECMWF has been showing for the last several runs. Thunderstorms erupting along a cold front Friday afternoon in central NoDak, that head east through Friday night as a complex of some variety. However, models disagree quite a bit on where those storms go after leaving NoDak. The NAM/Canadian indicate a line of storms going across northern MN, while the ECMWF/GFS show more southern MN. Ensembles show similar spread, so NBM PoPs didn't change much from the previous forecast, with some likelies into central MN and chances elsewhere.

After that, we should see a relative lull in activity Sunday night, which is when the ECMWF and GFS show a more pronounced cold front coming through. Looks rather moist and unstable along this boundary, though right now, the pattern has the look of more of a heavy rain producer than a significant severe weather producer. High pressure coming in behind this front is coming from the Rockies, so it will provide some dewpoint relief, but highs won't change much behind it (though the drier airmass will allow lows to dip back into the 50s/60s).

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 716 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Isolated showers have developed over eastern MN along an area of weak surface convergence. These showers should dissipate by 02Z. Otherwise, stratus will remain in place across MN overnight, lowering to MVFR toward morning across southern and western MN.

KMSP . VFR conditions are likely through the period, but there is a low chance of MVFR cigs Thursday morning which will need to be watched.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri . VFR. Chc -TSRA overnight. Wind S 15G20 kts. Sat . VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind S 10 kts. Sun . VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 10G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . MPG LONG TERM . MPG AVIATION . Borghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stanton Airfield, MN1 mi33 minSW 410.00 miFair70°F59°F70%1016.6 hPa
Faribault, Faribault Municipal Airport, MN18 mi33 minS 410.00 miOvercast72°F57°F61%1017.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN18 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair72°F51°F50%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYN

Wind History from SYN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3S3CalmSW3CalmCalmSW3CalmSW4CalmCalmSW4CalmS4SW7S9S6SW9SW7S6S7S3SW5Calm
1 day agoNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW3W3W7W7SW5W9W3NW5W7W6W5W5
2 days agoNE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE4NE7NE7NE4NE8NE7NE9NE8NE7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.