Friday, May29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 9:01PM Friday May 29, 2020 11:32 PM EDT (03:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Expires:202005300815;;963558 Fzus63 Kdtx 300144 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 944 Pm Edt Fri May 29 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Cold fronts move into the northeast tonight. High pressure, averaging 30.30 inches, will build over the region Sunday and Monday before the next low begins to move into the region late Monday into Tuesday. Lhz362-363-300815- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 944 pm edt Fri may 29 2020
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southwest early in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. A chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the evening...then veering to the west in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ363


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 292324 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 724 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

AVIATION.

Lingering shower activity along cold front will be sparse and largely bypass terminals now that thunderstorm has passes east of KFNT. Northwest winds will be prominent as main cold front passes this evening. Some degree of lower VFR cigs will filter into the area overnight and perhaps reform with diurnal mixing Saturday afternoon after a period of sct clouds in the morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate for ceilings below 5000 feet overnight and low Saturday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

DISCUSSION .

Mid level trough axis anchored over Lake Michigan mid afternoon will sweep across the local area through the evening hours. Gradual boundary layer recovery just downstream in the wake of earlier precipitation will leave a modestly unstable resident environment - roughly 500-700 j/kg of MLCAPE centered across central lower MI. Brief increase in mid level ascent tied to this feature will then maintain the chance for a linear axis of low topped showers/isolated thunder to emerge along the attendant secondary cold front. Recent model guidance points to an eastward propagating narrow broken line centered 20z-01z, offering a brief window /less than 30-45 minutes at any one location/ for gusty winds and a brief heavy downpour. Greater precipitation potential with northward extent.

Ensuing post-frontal cold/dry air advection strengthens overnight and continues through the day Saturday under deeper layer northwest flow. High degree of early day insolation potential, before a standard diurnal cu field emerges within the steep lapse rate environment. Resident thermal profile and mixing potential continue to support highs in the 60s. Brief period of northwest gusts near 25 mph given the projected mixing depth. Trailing shortwave energy skirting the northern great lakes late Saturday will effectively reinforce a cooler/drier resident environment, even offering a secondary period of cold air advection overnight. Conditions Sunday then marked by a high degree of stability under building high pressure and increasingly confluent mid level northwest flow. Full sunshine effectively moderates daytime temperatures back into the 60s.

Southeast Michigan will reside within the immediate downstream periphery of expanding upper level high pressure projected to encompass the central conus throughout the early-mid week period. Initial period of building upper heights across a lingering stable low level environment yields dry and seasonable conditions on Monday. Deep layer warm/moist air advection, perhaps augmented by shortwave energy working across the instability gradient, will promote convective organization over the the upper Mississippi valley/western great lakes late in the day. Some degree of downstream expansion will then be possible Monday night, as this activity lodges within the pronounced eastward mid level advective process. This will introduce at least a chance for showers/elevated thunder late Monday night or early Tuesday. Deep theta-e plume then folds across lower Michigan throughout the Tuesday period, reestablishing a moist and increasing unstable environment. Convective prospects and vigor certainly ill-defined both Tuesday and Wednesday at this stage, reliant on timing of yet resolved smaller scale forcing contributions to capitalize on an underlying thermodynamic setup and supportive deep layer wind fields that could offer possible greater convective organization.

MARINE .

The main cold front will exit the region and move into the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with a secondary cold front moving across the central Great Lakes later this afternoon/evening. This secondary front will keep shower chances in the forecast through the evening. A bit stronger northwest flow sets up behind the fronts with winds 15-20kts through Saturday. High pressure builds over the region early Sunday and remains overhead through the day Monday bringing quiet marine conditions for the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again late Monday into Tuesday as the next low pressure system begins to move into the central Great Lakes.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 41 mi42 min SSW 2.9 57°F 1013.5 hPa51°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi45 min Calm G 2.9 55°F 49°F1013.5 hPa49°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 56°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi42 minSSW 3 mi57°F51°F81%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5SW8SW8
G16
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NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmNW4W9
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NW8NW9NW9
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NW10NW8NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3
1 day ago5SW4Calm3CalmCalmCalmSE3S3S45S4S7S10
G18
34SE8SE6S733Calm55
2 days agoS3SW4SW33S3S4S5S63SE5SE7SE8SE5SE10SE9S7SE8SE6SE10SE10SE7SE6S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.