Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Philomath, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 4:34PM Friday December 6, 2019 4:59 PM PST (00:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:07PMMoonset 1:39AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:201912071400;;959214 Fzus56 Kpqr 062227 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 227 Pm Pst Fri Dec 6 2019 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-071400- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 227 Pm Pst Fri Dec 6 2019
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves se 3 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 7 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts to 15 kt until late afternoon. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 7 ft at 10 seconds. Rain likely.
Sat night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 6 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of rain and patchy fog in the evening.
Sun..N wind to 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun night..E wind to 5 kt. Wind waves E 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 14 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..SE wind 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 6 ft.
Mon night..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 5 ft.
Tue..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 9 ft.
Wed..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 9 ft.
PZZ200 227 Pm Pst Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A low pressure system off the coast will continue east but weaken through Sat, reaching the north california coast Sat night. High pressure returns to the waters Sun through Mon night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Philomath, OR
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location: 44.53, -123.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 062333 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 315 PM PST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. An upper level low well off the northern California coast early this morning will move east and weaken through Saturday. This will bring periods of light rain to the area. The unsettled conditions continue through Saturday night. High pressure returns to the area Sunday and persists into early next week for another potential round of air quality issues.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday . Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a large shortwave trough and closed low pressure over the eastern Pacific. The remnants of an occluding front are shifting northeastward across the area. Expect mainly sprinkles initially late this afternoon and early this evening. Between the lower atmosphere gradually moistening, increasing mid level forcing and a destabilization of the atmosphere, we should see increasing showers spread north-northeastward across the area overnight. A couple distinct waves rotating around the parent low pressure will likely provide a focus for showers. The first wave has already rounded the base of the trough and is currently lifting northward towards the northern California coast. Models are in decent agreement this will spread a more solid round of showers across the area late this evening. The next wave is nearing the base of the parent shortwave trough and will likely provide another focus for showers Saturday morning as it lifts northward across the area. An area of light, but steady rain will likely develop Saturday across our northwestern zones before shifting southeastward across the area Saturday night as a secondary shortwave trough drops southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska. Expect showers to decrease late Saturday night into early Sunday.

Models are in a good agreement a sharp and elongated shortwave ridge will build northward across the eastern Pacific Sunday night into Monday before shifting eastward across the area. This will likely result in a period of light winds, very little mixing and plenty of valley fog and low clouds.

After coordinating with state, regional and county air quality agencies, we opted to extend the air stagnation advisory through the first half of Tuesday. Given the wide range of rainfall scenarios produced by the models and their ensembles over the next 24-36 hours, there is a lot of uncertainty in whether or not there will be enough rain to scrub particulate matter out of the atmosphere. Given the atmosphere will remain largely stable through the weekend, opted to extend the advisory through the weekend and into early next week when air stagnation conditions will intensify. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Monday night through Saturday . The operational models and their ensembles are in general agreement a sharp shortwave ridge over the Pacific Northwest Monday night will shift eastward and open the region to increasing westerly flow aloft and allow weakening fronts to spread into the region during the middle of next week. Air stagnation issues should continue through at least the first half of Tuesday. However, timing differences and whether or not the first front will hold together enough to produce precipitation across the area remains a point of contention among the models and their ensembles so PoPs have been held mainly in the slight chance to chance categories Tuesday into early Wednesday.

When examining the WPC 500mb height clusters for next Thursday through Saturday, there is general agreement that a broad deep positively tilted trough will dig southward over the southern Gulf of Alaska while a shortwave ridge builds northward along the West Coast of the US. This pattern appears favorable for an atmospheric river to move northeastward towards the Pacific Northwest. However, there are considerable differences in the models in the amplitude of the shortwave ridge over the West Coast, which makes a big difference in whether or not it will impact Oregon, Washington or British Columbia later next week. In addition, there are scenarios like the GFS that /Neuman

AVIATION. Radar shows the warm front moving through the forecast area bringing rain to the coast. This front is expected to move inland tonight around 03Z Sat. While the rain will generally be light, periods of enhanced rainfall are expected after 09Z Sat which may reduce visibility to 4SM or less at times. Cigs will mainly be VFR through much of the forecast period, falling to low VFR/high MVFR levels around 09Z Sat as atmospheric temperatures begin to cool slightly. With a strong inversion in place overnight, there is a chance for IFR conditions with the potential for fog redevelopment around KEUG. In general though, the southern Willamette Valley may see cigs around 1000 ft AGL, especially as precipitation intensifies. Elsewhere inland, expect ceilings around 1500 ft AGL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR for the next several hours. Light showers will transition to more widespread rain around 06Z Sat, with a brief period of heaviest rain around 12Z. Visibility may be reduced at times with heavy rain. Winds will remain below 10 kt and offshore through the next 24 hr. -Muessle

MARINE. A low pressure system in the Pacific is beginning to erode as a front along the leading edge moves inland today. This system has created high energy seas causing winds to increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt from the south in the outer waters. These conditions can be observed by buoy 46089 WNW of Tillamook, OR. These winds, while slow to get going, are expected to persist through Sat morning. The swell is generally southerly with seas building to 9 to 11 ft with a period of around 13 seconds. Similar to winds, seas are expected to ease Sat morning. Inner waters are following a similar trend of weakening overnight through Sat morning. However, the magnitude of these winds are much lower in the 10 to 15 kt range.

The post frontal environment will become fairly calm as high pressure builds in behind the low pressure system. This will keep seas around 5 ft 15 seconds. The next weather maker will come late next week when a low, stemming from the Gulf of Alaska, advances towards the waters on Fri. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley- Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County- South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.




Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 38 mi66 min ESE 8 G 12 51°F 48°F1008.2 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 39 mi60 min E 6 G 8.9 51°F 1008.5 hPa (-1.4)
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 63 mi40 min E 7.8 G 12 51°F 50°F1007.6 hPa46°F

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Corvallis, Corvallis Municipal Airport, OR3 mi64 minN 010.00 miLight Rain44°F43°F96%1010.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVO

Wind History from CVO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Toledo
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:41 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:23 AM PST     1.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:00 AM PST     7.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:09 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:47 PM PST     2.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:21 PM PST     5.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.31.91.92.63.75.16.47.37.67.36.55.342.92.22.12.53.44.45.35.85.75.2

Tide / Current Tables for Winant, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Winant
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:41 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:00 AM PST     1.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:34 AM PST     7.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:09 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:24 PM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:36 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM PST     5.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.222.33.14.45.877.67.77.26.24.93.72.82.32.333.94.95.75.95.64.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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