Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Algoma, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:44PM Friday September 25, 2020 4:38 PM CDT (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:03PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ542 Expires:202009260415;;355106 Fzus53 Kgrb 252008 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 308 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 25 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-260415- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 308 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 25 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..S wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Saturday night..S wind 15 to 25 kts veering sw 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Sunday..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ542


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algoma, WI
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location: 44.6, -87.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 252025 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 325 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Saturday Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

The stratus deck across far north-central Wisconsin has opened up enough to allow MUCAPEs across that region to soar to 1000 to 1500 J/kg late this afternoon. In addition to the instability, bulk shear values are 40 to 50 knots and are expected to increase to around 60 knots by the evening hours. These ingredients will be available as a 500 mb PV anomaly tracks through the northwestern Great Lakes region. This setup has the potential for a volatile situation with possible supercells along with the threat for very large hail, wind damage, and tornadoes. That being said, the HREF ensemble paintball either brushes the extreme northwest portion of the cwa late this afternoon and early this evening, or keeps the activity across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. There is medium confidence that this event will unfold, however, there is fairly low confidence if it will be far enough south to affect our cwa.

The threat for severe weather will wane later this evening as storms become elevated and generally shift off to the east as a cold front moves through the area. Some fog will be possible across central and north-central Wisconsin later tonight, especially across areas that receive rainfall.

Saturday will also be a warm day, with summer-like temperatures as high temperatures once again rise into the 70s with a few 80 degree readings possible. Instability and shear values will once again be hefty, with MUCAPEs of 1000 to 2000 J/kg with effective shear around 65 knots. This once again brings all severe types to the table, however, there will also be a substantial capping inversion in place. Therefore the best chance for weather will be very late in the afternoon and probably closer to the evening when a shortwave once again tracks through the region. The threat area on Saturday will be a bit further south on Saturday, with the entire area under the threat for severe weather and the best chance along and north of the highway 20 corridor.

LONG TERM. Saturday Night Through Friday Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Long term features a major pattern change from a zonal flow to a strong northwest flow which will bring an end to the late summer- like weather and the arrival of very fall-like temps, plenty of clouds and several chances for rain showers, along with a small chance we could see the first flakes of the year across northern WI. The main forecast concerns will be the severe weather threat Saturday night, pinning down best/highest chances for showers next week, and temps.

Saturday night . activity will be ongoing or will be expanding around 00z Sunday as the upper level disturbance swings across the area and the surface frontal boundary will remain stuck across the region. Models signaling higher severe threat chances, with impressive effective bulk shear values between 50-65 knots, mid- level lapse rates increasing to between 7.0-8.0 C/km, and curved hodographs, all favoring some supercells (especially near the onset of convection). Some issues with instability and capping, as quite a bit of cloud cover is expected which will limit CAPE values to under 1000 J/kg by evening (a little higher with more sunshine). Looks like a high shear, low CAPE event. Most areas south of Highway 29 will be capped, so expected the majority of the activity across the north. Any storms well north of the boundary will likely be elevated, which would keep hail the main threat. Locations near or slightly north of the boundary is where the storms could become surface- based and where the greatest threat for damaging winds and tornadoes would be. Main severe threat will end by late evening as instability wanes. SPC has upgraded to a slight and expanded the threat area, which makes sense given some of the severe weather parameters. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs climb over 1.5". Any flooding issues look to be if/where any training storms occur.

Gusty and persistent south winds will bring large waves and dangerous currents at times to Lake Michigan Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Small craft advisories and beach hazard statements will likely be needed once the current headlines expire. Waves will subside as winds turn westerly on Sunday.

Sunday . surface boundary will slowly shift south of the area through the day, as another shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes, keeping some chances for showers across parts of the area, highest near the lake shore. Post frontal light showers will remain possible into Sunday night as cold air advection takes hold of the region.

Next week . as upper level trough digs over the Great Lakes, much cooler weather will invade the region. A few spots could climb into the lower 60s on Monday, but thereafter highs in the 50s are expected mid-week and highs only in the 40s across northern WI late in the week. A significant change from the 70s today and Saturday! Plenty of precip chances in this pattern. The early to mid week period is looking to feature days with isolated- scattered shower activity with cold air aloft and pieces of the upper trough/low move overhead. Thunder chances look low, but the stronger showers could have some graupel. If temps late in the week pan out, a few snowflakes could mix in across the far north.

AVIATION. for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Although the fog has lifted across the area, a bank of stratus clouds remains across north-central Wisconsin early this afternoon. This bank of clouds should continue to erode from south to north, as indicated by visible satellite imagery, with surface winds increasing given a deeper boundary layer. This should allow conditions to become VFR across the north later this afternoon.

An approaching upper level jet and surface cold front will produce thunderstorms across north-central Wisconsin this evening. The chance of thunderstorms is much less further south, with the best chance north of RHI. Therefore will only place a VCTS at the RHI TAF site and amend if storms get close enough to the airport.

VFR conditions are expected during the evening outside of any thunderstorm activity. Low level wind shear is possible in the late evening and early overnight hours.

Low clouds and fog could form again late tonight, mostly west of a stevens Point to Iron Mountain line. These should dissipate shortly after sunrise Saturday. Good flying weather is expected during the day Saturday, but there is a chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening, especially across the north.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for WIZ022-040- 050.

SHORT TERM . Kurimski LONG TERM . Bersch AVIATION . Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 10 mi51 min S 14 G 18 59°F 1010.5 hPa
45014 23 mi39 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 1008.3 hPa (-1.9)
GBWW3 31 mi57 min Calm G 4.1 78°F 1008.6 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 35 mi51 min S 8 G 16 74°F 62°F1009.1 hPa57°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 41 mi59 min ESE 5.1 G 12 72°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI17 mi43 minS 18 G 2410.00 miFair and Breezy71°F57°F63%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5E6E3CalmE6E4SE7S4NE3E6S4S5S6SW6SW5S6S7SW9S11S10SW15
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1 day agoS7S5S4S7S6SW6SW6SW6NW8W5N6CalmN10NE5SW3E5E3E4SE6E6SE6SE5E6E6
2 days agoS5S6S4S4SW6S6SW5SW6W5SW5W6W5W4W5W4W5W5W4NW3CalmSW4SW5SW7S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.