Sunday, July25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Frankfort, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:24PM Sunday July 25, 2021 11:01 AM CDT (16:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 6:51AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:202107252215;;431234 Fzus53 Kapx 251403 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 1003 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-252215- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1003 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frankfort, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 251325 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 925 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 925 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Infinitely quieter than 24 hours ago. W to wnw low-level winds in place, with low pressure in far northern Ontario/Quebec, and high pressure in IA. Active wx will be found along a frontal boundary in the OH Valley, and way to our north closer to the low pressure. Surface dew points are still mostly in the low-mid 60s (so yes still feels sticky outside). But the 12Z APX sounding is quite dry above the BL (920mb dew point 8C/47f). So dew points should fall off, and quickly, as vertical mixing increases. That will prevent us from seeing any appreciable Cape develop.

So maybe a touch of cu, but likely not too much (too dry aloft). A touch of smoke aloft has returned to the area, especially in the Straits area northward (where a little cirrus is also found).

Max temps mainly in the 80s, warmest in ne lower MI thanks to downsloping.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Impactful weather: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper troughing was over the east coast early this morning, with shallow ridging over the western third of the conus. In between, WNW drier flow aloft was over nrn Michigan, behind a cold front departing to the east of nrn Michigan. Sfc dew points were lowering and there was little to no synoptic forcing around. Skies were mostly clear, with only some patchy fog and reduced VSBYS in the typical low lying areas.

Not much weather to talk about for today and tonight. There should be plenty of sunshine/clearing to continue, as we remain in the overall drier WNW flow aloft, with little to no synoptic forcing. Yeah, there are some identifiable weak perturbations in the flow that could bring in a little clouds here and there, but there is certainly no expectation for any precipitation through tonight. Maybe a little W/WNW gustiness this afternoon and maybe some additional some additional patchy fog tonight.

High temperatures will be warm today, largely in the lower to middle 80s, with upper 80s in downsloping areas of NE lower. Lows tonight will largely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday night and Tuesday .

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now. Will need to be on the lookout for a few thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Mid and upper level flow regime changes little through the course of this upcoming week, with northern Michigan remaining centered between broad Intermountain West/High Plains ridging and northeast NOAM centered trough axis. Northwest flow between these features will remain directed overhead, with mid level perturbations and enhanced upper jet cores traversing this flow from time to time. Transient surges of monsoonal moisture interacting with these passing impulses will set the stage for periodic shower and storm chances through next week.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing our next shower and storm concerns Monday night and Tuesday.

Details:

Still appears much of Monday will be dry and fairly warm, with expected highs well up into the 80s. Arrival of shortwave trough within enhanced upper level flow, collocated with quick surge of monsoonal moisture (precipitable water values making a run at an inch and a half) should set the stage for increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Monday night, with the threat for showers gradually sagging south on Tuesday as the attendant cold front does the same. Currently not anticipating any widespread severe weather concern as best instability parameters remain rooted upstream. However, increasing of effective shear to over 40 knots does at least support some isolated gusty wind potential with any more organized updrafts. Latest SPC Day Three Severe Weather Outlook has marginal wording remaining just to our northwest. Something to monitor in the coming days. Still mild on Tuesday, although just how warm it gets will be highly predicated on cloud and shower trends.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

. More shower/storm chances at times .

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now.

Northwest flow aloft talked about in the short term section above continues relatively unabated through the rest of the week. Current trends support next fast moving wave arriving Wednesday into Wednesday night, again kicking off more showers and potential thunderstorms . with perhaps yet another wave arriving on Saturday. Would like to stress, however, that although the forecast will have multiple periods of rain potential, widespread rains are not expected, with much of the time remaining dry. Seasonably mild conditions will continue, with highs in the 80s Wednesday, "cooling" to mostly in the 70s for both Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 523 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

A quiet period of weather today through Monday, with relatively higher pressure gradually building into the region. The pressure gradient however, may still be tight enough for some lower end gustiness this afternoon. There will be some afternoon FEW-SCT cumulus, but mainly a plethora of sunshine/clearing is anticipated. Conditions will be VFR, with the exception of some nighttime/early morning fog/stratus, especially at mbL.

MARINE. Issued at 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

A quiet period of weather today through Monday, with relatively higher pressure gradually building into the region. The pressure gradient however, will still be tight enough, mainly today, to possibly bring some low end advisory gusty wind speeds at times across various nearshore waters. The next chance of showers arrives later Monday night into Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . mb LONG TERM . mb AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi21 min SW 6 G 7 71°F 1014.6 hPa
45183 32 mi31 min WSW 7.8 G 12 70°F 68°F1 ft
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi81 min Calm G 2.9 73°F 1014.2 hPa
45024 48 mi21 min W 1.9 G 3.9 70°F 68°F1 ft1015 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 49 mi49 min SW 1 G 5.1 72°F 62°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI1 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair75°F63°F67%1012.9 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi65 minWNW 510.00 miFair77°F64°F64%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

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Last 24hrS7SW8W7W8W8W8W4SW3CalmCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W3
1 day agoCalmSE5S5S4SW5W6W5W4CalmNW3CalmCalmS4SE5S4S5S6
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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