Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Frankfort, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday July 2, 2020 4:09 AM CDT (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:15PMMoonset 2:52AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:202007021530;;184049 Fzus53 Kapx 020717 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 317 Am Edt Thu Jul 2 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-021530- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 317 Am Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Today..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frankfort, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 020656 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 256 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper level blocking pattern continues, and has continued to retrograde, with the ridge axis now laid over into the western Great Lakes. Troughing remains over much of the west and east coasts. At the sfc, high pressure and relative drier air was overhead, but the high pressure was also retrograding. Skies in nrn Michigan were clear, as subsidence and dry air were dominant.

The quiet weather continues. The blocking upper air pattern holds through tonight, but both the upper ridge and sfc high retrograde, with the sfc high moving into the upper Mississippi valley tonight. This will make way for a sfc trough and corridor of higher moisture to pass through late this afternoon in eastern upper, and nrn lower tonight. However, there is very minimal forcing with this trough, with mainly weak DPVA and low/mid level WAA. The air mass is just too dry for any chance of precipitation. After a pretty sunny day, am only expecting some scattered clouds coming through with the trough.

Highs today will mostly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s again, with some middle 90s in downsloping areas of NE lower. Lows tonight will range from the upper half of the 50s in eastern upper, to the low to mid 60s in nrn lower.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

. Mainly Dry Continues .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes . Friday, the models have sped up the 500 mb shortwave trough that would transit the region during the day, and now has it just south of the forecast area by 12z/Fri. The GFS and ECMWF are together on this idea, and it keeps the shortwave ridging into the forecast area through the day and overnight. The CMC is similar, but somehow gets enough instability over the forecast area for afternoon showers. The SREF mean is in the GFS/ECMWF idea, so will be going dry through 12z/Sat.

Independence Day (Saturday), another 500 mb trough begins to move through the longwave ridge over the Upper Midwest and begins to reorient the ridge more to the N Plains, and troughiness begins to dig into the Atlantic seaboard. This leaves the Upper Great Lakes between the two features, but with dry air, for the most part. As has been the case over the last few nights, however, the models have been having a difference of opinion as we get further out. The instability is the main issue, overnight. The GFS and CMC have small areas of precipitation from a shortwave moving into the forecast area overnight. The ECMWF continues a dry forecast. Since we have been so dry would prefer to leave the overnight (after 06z/Sun) dry despite the other two models, but there is a possibility.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal for now.

Extended (Sunday through Wednesday) . Sunday, a 500 mb shortwave that is over the southern part of the forecast area 12z/Sun (on the GFS) is the kick off (at least on the GFS) for a showers and possibly some thunderstorms. The ECMWF is dry, and considering the dryness of the past week would prefer to keep the precipitation out, until it happens (which is beginning to look later).

Monday, the 500 mb pattern goes more zonal again, and all of the models dry out for the day. There seems to be an MCS Monday night that the remnants begin to pass through the forecast area by early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday, with the mainly zonal flow through N Lower and E Upper, rain will be possible, but the models signal that the MCS that arrives Tuesday morning will quickly fall apart. will leave the pops in there for Tuesday, but think that this could be looking at the ECMWF a short lived, light rain unlike the GFS idea with rain constant through Wednesday.

Wednesday, the GFS has a train of showers, while the ECMWF starts off dry for the day, and then has another MCS that is falling apart move into the E Upper and N Lower overnight.

The models have pattern with the convection, but there so many solutions, that the consensus model (NBM) continues to spit out 15- 25 pops for some many days. Tried to look at the days that are most likely to have no rain, and keep them dry. This pattern will be difficult and the confidence in the forecast is below average.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Higher pressure overhead will slide west into the upper Mississippi valley into Friday morning, while a sfc trough passes through Thursday night. The air mass will remain quite dry, with little no no cumulus today, and only some scattered low to mid clouds expected with the trough. No chance for precipitation. Solid VFR for the TAF period.

A fairly light westerly flow will trend toward lake breezes this afternoon, then light NW/N tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

High pressure overhead will slide into the upper Mississippi valley later tonight, while a sfc trough passes through the region. The high pressure then settles back in overhead Friday night into the weekend. The air mass remains dry for the next several days, resulting in no rainfall. A light westerly wind will turn more northerly Friday, with afternoon lake breezes expected both today and Friday. Very warm to hot temperatures and overlake stability, combined with the light winds, will result in no wind/wave issues.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi29 min E 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 1017.9 hPa
45183 32 mi39 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 68°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi89 min E 5.1 G 6 69°F 1017.6 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 49 mi57 min E 2.9 G 4.1

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI1 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair59°F55°F88%1016.6 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi73 minN 08.00 miFair60°F60°F100%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SW3W5W5W8W6N6N5NW3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE4CalmSE3SE4CalmS3SW3W7W9W7W7N5N6N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3S6S8S4W8W8
G14
W4SW3SW7SW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.