Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Frankfort, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:54PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 9:38 PM CST (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:31PMMoonset 6:48AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 937 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est Wednesday...
Overnight..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Flurries after midnight, then scattered snow showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..North wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:202101271045;;104333 FZUS53 KAPX 270237 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 937 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ346-271045-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frankfort, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 270228 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 928 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 923 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

Widespread snow from earlier has exited, leaving behind north- northwest flow lake effect flurries and very light snow showers. These will continue overnight, with perhaps a bit better snow shower organization developing into northwest lower Michigan as Lake Superior connection matures. Definitely not a big deal, with any snow amounts likely remaining under an inch. A chilly night, with overnight lows mostly in the single digits and lower teens.

NEAR TERM. (Through Wednesday) Issued at 259 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

. Light snow gradually ending thru early evening .

High Impact Weather Potential . Lingering light snow mainly along and south of M-72 will result in some slick roads thru this evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Surface low center is holding along the southern shore of Lake Erie this afternoon . with the upper level trough axis now over Lower Michigan. Area of light snow impacting our CWA within the deformation zone is slowly diminishing in intensity . with the back edge of this precip shield now making eastward progress out of our CWA. Obs across our southeast CWA are now reporting vsbys at or above 3SM with light snow. Expect this slow diminish in snowfall intensity as well as the slow eastward progression of the back edge will continue over the next few hours . with less than an inch of additional snowfall expected for the duration of this evening Thus. will cancel the Winter Wx Advisory early given latest radar and near term models trends.

Synoptic snow will end this evening . transitioning to a northerly flow light lake effect snow shower regime as CAA begins behind the departing low. Additional snow accumulation from these light lake effect snow showers will be minimal . under a half an inch for tonight and tomorrow . and will be focused on far Western Chippewa and Mackinac counties and far NW Lower Michigan mainly west of TVC and CAD.

Expect another cold night across the Northwoods as CAA commences. Overnight lows will range from the single digits above zero to the teens. High temps Wednesday afternoon will only warm into the upper teens to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 259 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

High impact weather potential: Minimal with light NNW-flow lake effect through Thursday night.

Synopsis/Pattern: Current pattern features a few waves of interest; one is currently crossing the Great Lakes, giving us our southern CWA snowfall today, with another closed wave moving out of the four corners region. Yet another wave is starting to rotate through northern Ontario. By Wednesday night we'll be sandwiched between these two waves, with the northern one pushing through eastern Ontario and the southern one translating into the Ohio Valley. This puts us squarely within northwest upper level flow through Thursday. As both features rapidly move off to the east midlevel ridging starts to build in across the region Friday with temperatures starting a very slow and subtle warming trend (at least back to normal) heading into the weekend.

Forecast/Details: By Wednesday night strong surface high pressure will be pushing south through the northern plains, with us in weak north-northwest flow on its periphery. We'll be in cold low and mid level flow (with 850mb temps in the upper teens producing deltaT's aoa 20 C) . but fairly dry above the BL. Some very light scattered lake effect snow showers are possible, but accumulations look to remain well under an inch overnight with low inversion heights (3-4 kft) and the DGZ being rooted near the surface. One thing that may help snow intensity is lake aggregate troughing over the Straits region which tries to ever so slight nudge south. BL winds possibly back slightly, spreading the already light snow out to different NW- flow areas late night.

Not much changes through the day Thursday, with us staying in cold NW flow and any real synoptic forcing or moisture missing our area. Scattered lake effect showers remain possible through the day, with chances waning overnight into early Friday morning. As the low level ridge axis passes our area Friday we'll see some weaker winds, drier air, and possibly some clearing at least for a brief window.

Highs both Thursday and Friday look to remain a few degrees below normal, a couple degrees on either side of 20. Slightly milder air tries to work its way into southwest areas Friday. Nudged Wednesday night's lows up a couple degrees, especially in Ern Upper. While we may have some drainage flow out of Ontario with northerly winds, believed guidance was just a tad too cold, but we'll see.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 259 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now.

As we get into the weekend ridging remains in control of the Great Lakes, with the next weather-maker moving through the central Plains. This system looks to swing up toward the lower Great Lakes through Sunday giving us more snow chances through the day. Plenty of uncertainty in the track and strength of the surface low exist, but both deterministic and ensemble guidance bring some snow to the area. Some low chances of scattered snow showers linger into the beginning of next week, possibly in the form of NE flow lake effect, but confidence in this is low at this time, and will depend on the track of the surface low. For temperatures we'll slowly warm up through the mid and upper 20s through the weekend, with some areas approaching the freezing mark early next week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 649 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

MVFR to VFR conditions to persist across the taf locations through Wednesday as lake-induced cloud cover spreads overhead. May even see a few snow showers, especially at KTVC and KMBL, but any accumulations will be minimal (although any heavier snow showers may briefly drop visibilities to IFR). North to northwest winds through the period.

MARINE. Issued at 259 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

Winds and waves will marginally reach SCA criteria across our nearshore areas thru this evening on the back side of low pressure tracking thru the Eastern Great Lakes into New England. Lingering light snow will transition to light northerly flow lake effect snow showers tonight into Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ347-348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . MR SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . mb MARINE . MR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi479 min NNE 18 G 20 27°F 1016.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi479 min N 17 G 24 27°F 1015.2 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 49 mi459 min N 7 G 11 28°F 20°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI1 mi44 minN 610.00 miOvercast24°F14°F64%1021.7 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi43 minN 9 G 1510.00 miLight Snow24°F16°F71%1022.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7NE4NE6NE3N4
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1 day agoCalmCalmN4N7N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6CalmN4NE7NE6NE6NE6NE5E7E5--
2 days agoSE3SE4SE4SE4SE4SE6S7SE7SE5S8SE7SE8SE8
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S6S7S5CalmCalmW5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.