Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Frankfort, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:47PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 2:06 AM CST (08:06 UTC) Moonrise 6:35AMMoonset 3:34PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:202001221145;;320660 Fzus53 Kapx 220316 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 1016 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-221145- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1016 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020
.gale warning in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Overnight..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 8 to 11 feet.
Wednesday night..South wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Rain showers and snow showers likely. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Thursday..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain showers and snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frankfort, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 220451 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1151 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1004 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

While not much going on out there tonight, there is one interesting upper level standing wave type formation that keeps regenerating thick cirrus across much of northern lower Michigan. Also seeing a very shallow lake response kicking of bands of strato-cu into a good portion of the area. Would expect the latter to start to mix out as warm air advection continues. High clouds might be a bit more stubborn to leave, with more lurking just upstream. All told, looking at a partly to mostly cloudy night. Combination of those clouds and some fairly gusty southwest winds will definitely keep temperatures several degrees milder than they have been the last few nights. Expect readings to only fall a few more degrees from current readings mostly in the mid and upper 20s.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 344 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

. Clouds persist across the area, gusty winds overnight .

Our lack of sensible weather is thanks to the 1040mb surface high treking into the Ohio Valley and drying conditions through the low and mid-levels. Central CONUS ridging is nudging into the Great Lakes, with the ridge axis moving off to our southeast by midnight. This will allow high level clouds to continue streaming into our area through much of the evening and probably also overnight. Stability over the lake is increasing as WAA increases on the backside of the high tonight. Thus flurries are off the table, but we may hang on to our present stratoCu given forecast thermal profiles remaining saturated enough between 900-950mb. Southwest winds have already kicked in at the surface and will increase in gustiness this evening and overnight . Pellston has already gusted to 36mph. A chance of snow enters the area again late Wednesday morning along a cold front (see below discussion). Overnight lows will be near 20 in the interior higher terrain, and close to Saginaw Bay . warmer temperatures expected near the Michigan shoreline (mainly upper 20s).

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 344 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

. Snow chances return Wednesday through Thursday .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal for now

Pattern Synopsis:

An amplified ridge will encompass much of the eastern CONUS while broad upper-level troughing stretches across the Great Plains. At the surface, elongated high pressure will extend from eastern Canada down into the southeastern US. A cyclone will continue to move across Hudson Bay, helping to enhance southerly flow into the region on the backside of the high pressure. Going into Thursday, surface high pressure building across central Canada will help force cold air near the northern Great Lakes, creating near-surface convergence with the aforementioned southerly flow.

Forecast/Details:

Precipitation is expected to begin Wednesday afternoon, mainly falling as snow across eastern upper. Precipitation is mainly expected across eastern upper and far northwest lower into Wednesday night with decreasing chances to the southeast. This is where the focus for best forcing resides as ascent aloft is provided by the right entrance region of a jet streak, along with an approaching weak wave and background warm air advection. Forecast soundings show saturated profiles across eastern upper with moisture struggling to reach into northern lower initially. DGZs are relatively thin and confined between 500-600mb. While some forcing is expected in this layer, forcing will be weak overall and the bulk of the saturated profile is warmer than -10 C. This will generally lead to smaller flake sizes, lower snow ratios, and wet snow that hinders greater snowfall totals as surface temperatures will be floating near the freezing mark for much of the day. This opens the door for transitions to rain/drizzle for warmer areas and, depending on forcing, freezing drizzle for those below freezing for short periods of time.

Precipitation is expected to last through the majority of Thursday for eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan as chances increase for the rest of northern lower to see rain/snow beginning late morning. With temperatures still floating around the freezing mark on Thursday, similar precipitation-type difficulties present themselves once again. A wet snow is expected for most, with intermittent mixing to rain/drizzle in areas that warm above freezing. The potential near-surface convergence mentioned in the pattern synopsis could lead to some enhanced banding, but it is uncertain how far south the boundary will go. Widespread snowfall amounts across eastern upper are expected to be near 4" over the period with some locally higher amounts possible. An inch or two is generally expected across northwest Michigan with lower totals stretching to the southeast where less is likely to fall.

Otherwise, gusty winds are expected across the area on Wednesday with some lakeshore flooding concerns, mainly along portions of Lake Michigan shorelines. Like mentioned before, high temps will be near freezing each day and only cooling down a few degrees during the overnight hours.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 344 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal . Monitoring system

An organized system is expected to form and move into the Ohio River Valley Friday with favorable ascent aloft from a shortwave advancing east into the region. While northern Michigan may see some snow from this system, the bulk of the precipitation is expected to remain to our south at this time. Details regarding timing and precipitation amounts will be more certain as the weekend nears. After this system departs, guidance hints towards high pressure building in, potentially leading two a couple of drier days to end the period. High temperatures won't change much over the weekend, hovering in the low to mid 30s into early next week.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1150 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

Lake induced MVFR producing strato-cu should mix out heading through early this morning, leaving behind just some high level overcast. Clouds will gradually lower today, but remain at VFR levels outside of KPLN where MVFR overcast looks increasingly likely during the afternoon. Gusty southwest winds will continue through the duration. Despite these gusty winds, overspreading of low level jet likely to bring a round of low level wind shear early this morning, especially at KAPN.

MARINE. Issued at 344 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

Winds slowly back from southwesterly this afternoon to ever-slightly more southerly through the night. These winds will become more gusty this evening and overnight as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Sustained winds will close in on 30 kts on nrn Lake Michigan, with the strongest gusts (upper 30s) expected to ramp up after sundown . lasting into the morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 5 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ016-020- 025-031-088-095-096-098. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323. GALE WARNING until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . STJ SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . mb MARINE . STJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi26 min S 18 G 32 33°F 1023.7 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi81 min S 22 G 36 32°F 1023.4 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 49 mi60 min 33°F 25°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI1 mi11 minSSW 17 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F25°F78%1022 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi10 minSSW 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast32°F26°F79%1023.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3W7W9W10W9
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1 day agoN4N3CalmNW3NW4NW6N6NW4NW7NW7NW6N3NW4NW7NW4NW4NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.