Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:38PM Monday August 19, 2019 12:09 PM EDT (16:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 9:38AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1048 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Today..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201908192300;;470041 FZUS53 KAPX 191448 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1048 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-192300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 191424
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1024 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Update
Issued at 1024 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
minimal changes to the going forecast foreseen for afternoon.

Surface low pressure stretches across hudson bay with a cold front
arcing down through quebec and then back through southern lower
michigan. Secondary trough front stretches down into the northern
plans upper midwest area along with a compact area of cloud cover
and even a few showers from northern minnesota into ontario.

Surface high pressure dry air spans much of northern michigan with
lots of clear skies in place this morning.

Rest of today: secondary boundary and batch of cloud cover will
skirt across lake superior, but does look to stay out of the
u.P. Eastern upper michigan. Lots of dry air otherwise with
minimal support for any afternoon "heating of the day" clouds per
forecast soundings. So... Plan to maintain overall sunny skies
along with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 412 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Plenty of Sun and seasonable temperatures today...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: 04z surface composite analysis shows a
997mb surface low near the southern tip of james bay with a cold
front extending southwest across eastern upper southeast wi central
ia. 1015mb surface high behind the front centered over southwest
mn. Skies are mostly clear across eastern upper with some high
based sc ac along the front across northern lower... But any
lingering precipitation has cleared lower michigan with clear skies
upstream as drier air spreads across the upper great lakes.

Isentropic ascent and weaker stability forcing some mid cloud and
high based showers over southern manitoba northwest ontario.

Surface high will expand into the upper lakes today along with
rising heights as upper level flow becomes zonal across the upper
midwest great lakes.

Primary forecast concerns: few and far between today with the
arrival of high pressure and drier air. Looking at a good bit of
sunshine today with falling dew points and mostly seasonable
afternoon highs (70s to lower 80s). Mainly clear skies tonight and
light winds will allow temperatures to sink into the 50s and perhaps
some upper 40s in interior locales.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 412 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal
pattern synopsis and forecast:
surface high pressure anchored over the great lakes will dominate
Tuesday's weather, with mostly clear skies, light winds, and warm
temperatures. The zonal flow of late will become progressive as the
great lakes region remains in broad upper level troughing through
the forecast period. A weak cold front associated with a low
pressure system over the james bay region will sweep into the
forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cloud cover will be
on the increase ahead of the boundary Tuesday afternoon with rain
and possibly some thunder (near lake michigan shoreline?) chances
arriving during the evening nighttime hours. This slow moving
boundary may trigger some more showers Wednesday afternoon, mainly
closer to the saginaw bay region where diurnal heating and possible
lake breezes may aid in the development. Although some high pressure
builds back into the region later Wednesday, wouldn't be surprised
if the upper level troughing and available moisture produce more
cloud cover than is forecast at this time. Winds will become
southwesterly ahead of the aforementioned cold front Tuesday
afternoon and veer to the northwest behind the front Wednesday and
Thursday. With the caa... Winds could become gusty Wednesday
afternoon, especially over the lakes and eastern upper. Temperatures
will be in the low to mid 80s, possibly even see some upper 80s, as
southwesterly winds advect warmer and moisture air into the forecast
area. Wednesday will be cooler once again with the CAA behind the
said boundary, reaching into the mid to upper 70s. As colder air
continues to filter in on northwesterly flow, some locations may
only reach into the mid 60s Thursday.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 412 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
high impact weather... None is expected.

The long term models are in agreement with this period mostly being
under surface high pressure with the exception of yet another weak
cold front and attendant upper level wave dropping down from central
canada during the late weekend Monday timeframe. This will most
likely be the only precipitation chances during this forecast
period. Temperatures will moderate a bit each day, beginning in the
low to mid 70s Friday and reaching near 80 by Sunday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 732 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
few aviation concerns today with high pressure building in from
the west...VFR conditions expected through tonight.

Marine
Issued at 412 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
lingering small craft advisories should be able to be dropped at
forecast issuance... The only exception may be along the straits to
presque isle light lake huron nearshore zone where winds are
still a bit gusty. But a flattening pressure gradient as high
pressure builds in from the west should eventually allow some
lake breeze development this afternoon. Winds expected to become
more southwesterly Tuesday... Then back northwest Wednesday behind
a cold front... With gusty winds possibly requiring another round
of small craft advisories.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Ba
near term... Jpb
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Jpb
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 18 mi39 min W 7.8 G 7.8 69°F 69°F1018.2 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi52 min W 7 G 8.9 74°F 1017.3 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi29 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 1017.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi89 min E 5.1 G 7 74°F 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi2.3 hrsN 010.00 miA Few Clouds72°F57°F59%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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SW6SW4SW7NW7N5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4NE5
1 day agoW8--W944SW4CalmNE5N3Calm------CalmCalm--CalmCalmW3S3SE3S5S12
G25
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2 days agoSW6S7SW7S6S7S8
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S4S533S4S6S3----------CalmS4SW7W4W83

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.