Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 5:04PM Friday December 6, 2019 12:14 AM EST (05:14 UTC) Moonrise 2:34PMMoonset 2:01AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1002 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Friday through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..Light winds becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Rain and snow after midnight, then rain and snow likely after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201912061115;;918400 FZUS53 KAPX 060302 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1002 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-061115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 060222 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 922 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 922 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

1012mb low pressure is in central WI, with an associated warm front poking east into mbL-GOV-OSC. Small baroclinic leaf is noted in satellite and radar ne of the surface low. Light snow is falling near/north of an Empire-OSC line. This will progress fairly quickly across northern MI over the next 6-8 hours, and by daybreak only lake effect snows should be lingering in eastern upper/nw lower/ne lower (nw to nnw flow).

Have boosted snow amounts a bit in parts of far northern lower MI, just north of the surface warm front, where 850-700mb fgen is maximized. Snowfall totals in the APN/Rogers area is now around 3 inches. Could pop an advisory there under some circumstances, but for a nocturnal event, that seems unnecessary.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

. The Basic 1-3" N MI Clipper .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . An Alberta Clipper system is dropping into the Upper Great Lakes this evening. This is beginning to kick off mainly flurries over N Lower and C Upper for the moment. The main snow is showing up over the MN Arrowhead region and w Lake Superior. Snow amounts and rates seem fairly light, and guidance shows that a general 1-3" (Light amounts) is expected.

Primary Forecast Concerns . concerns are minimal as this system looks to be behaving based on the models. Looking at the SREF plumes from 09z this morning, ranges have been around the going forecast for overnight into Friday. It is possible that a stray 4 to 5" report isn't out of the question, but the majority of this should remain in the 1-3" range.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Short Term: (Friday through Saturday)

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Subtle troughing and the associated weak clipper system will be departing the region to the east to begin the period as surface high pressure builds across the north-central CONUS underneath the ridge- trough inflection point overhead. This high pressure system will help funnel some colder air from Canada into the area before winds switch to southerly later Saturday.

While snowfall associated with the weak clipper is expected to have mainly vacated the forecast area Friday, lake effect snow across portions of eastern upper and northern lower MI could last into the afternoon hours. Steady northwest low to mid-level winds will last for a narrow window during this time, but general lack of moisture above 850mb and CAA/subsidence aloft will inhibit snowfall totals. Additional accumulations near 1" with some locally higher amounts within heavier bands are possible with this lake effect heading into Friday night.

A weak wave/speed max has the potential to support more light snowfall early Saturday morning across northern Michigan, but accumulations are expected to remain very light due to near-surface moisture being marginal at best. Otherwise, the aforementioned cold air will drop lows into the teens on Saturday morning before warming up throughout the weekend.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

High Impact Weather: Potential winter storm early next week followed by cold temps.

On Sunday, a trough across central Canada will develop a cyclone near Hudson Bay. A cold front associated with this system is expected to sweep down across southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures warm ahead of this and will support rain later Sunday into Monday before the arrival of the next system, which is the main focus of this period. This cyclone will develop in the southern Great Plains early Monday before quickly moving/deepening along the previously mentioned boundary into the southern Great Lakes. Rain, wintry mix, and snow are all possible across northern Michigan with this system. However, considerable uncertainty still exists regarding details and locations of greatest impacts. Behind this system, very cold air encompasses the area with temperatures in the single digits/teens beginning Wednesday through the end of the week with wind chills below zero possible.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 655 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Periods of IFR cigs/vsbys in -SN will impact the northern MI TAF sites tonight, except for mbL, which will be too far south. mbL progged to see cigs reach the bottom end of MVFR, but not quite IFR. PLN/APN/TVC will see IFR conditions at times tonight. MVFR cigs will linger on Friday after the snow exits.

Light winds early tonight. Gusty nw winds develop late tonight into Friday.

MARINE. Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Tonight through Saturday . An Alberta clipper moves through the Upper Great Lakes tonight, and the winds begin to ramp up after 06z/Fri. Some time around 09z, small craft gusts begin to creep up Lake Michigan and across Lake Superior. This will lead to small craft conditions on both of those lakes, with the winds not increasing past small craft in the Straits or on Lake Huron until after 12z/Fri. The clipper quickly moves east, and after 18z, winds will begin to diminish on Lake Michigan first (by 21z/Fri), then Whitefish Bay and the St. Mary's River (by 00z/Sat) and then Lake Huron (around 03z/Fri). Waves look to be subsiding around the same times, so have set the times above as the end points for the small craft headlines.

High pressure then sets in Friday night, but it too, moves quickly east, and we get into the return flow. The pressure gradient then tightens up as the next clipper system begins to drop into the Upper Great Lakes for Saturday night into Sunday. There may be small craft conditions on Lake Michigan by late Saturday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . JL SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi35 min ESE 2.9 G 7 31°F 1014.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi35 min SSE 4.1 G 8 35°F 1013.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi35 min SSW 14 G 19 42°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi22 minN 03.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F28°F85%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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W14W9W7W5W4W4W4CalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3SE4E3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.