Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday April 2, 2020 11:40 PM EDT (03:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:28PMMoonset 3:23AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1051 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
Overnight..Light winds. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202004031100;;485718 FZUS53 KAPX 030251 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1051 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-031100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 030305 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1105 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1052 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Quiet weather is anticipated overnight across eastern Upper and northern Lower MI. High pressure is in place, with an associated dry air mass and light winds. This is a good radiational cooling scenario, even better than last night, with overnight lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s likely. Going forecast was in good shape overall and only minor hourly tweaks were needed at this time.

NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

. Another sunny day on Friday .

High impact weather potential: none.

A sparkling day across northern MI. A skinny ridge of high pressure extends from far northern Ontario, down the length of Lake MI, and on toward IND/SDF. Early morning fog/stratus is gone (it hung on longest in western Antrim Co, and on the Canadian waters of Whitefish Bay). Full sun otherwise, and temps away from lake breezes are in the 50s to around 60f. Coastal sites are in the 40s. Dew points have crashed hard with increased vertical mixing, with lots of low-mid teens in interior sections. That mixing is also leading to the occasional gust of nnw wind, especially in ne lower MI.

There is not much to worry about in the near term. High pressure remains nearly stationary tonight, and only grudgingly drifts toward Lake Huron on Friday. This will maintain a rather dry airmass. We will start to see the mid and upper levels moisten a touch on Friday, perhaps enough to result in partly cloudy conditions in nw lower MI, w of TVC-CAD. Otherwise mostly clear or just clear works. After a day of prominent vertical mixing, we should not be as prone to fog tonight. That said, temp-dew point spreads are somewhat small in places where the lake breeze has moved inland. A touch of fog may not be impossible in some near- coastal sections late tonight (especially in the broader Straits region). Min temps tonight mid 20s to lower 30s.

Max temps Friday from mid-upper 40s in some coastal areas, to around 60f interior of northern lower. Do think we will see dew points in interior sections crash hard again Friday, and guidance RH values have been sharply lowered. Not much wind though, so fire wx concerns are manageable.

SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

. Showers expected Saturday .

High Impact Weather . Minimal.

Forecast Concerns . Timing in/out expected showers this weekend.

The focus of this forecast will be the movement of the fairly deep western trough which has been nearly stationary over the last couple of days (it's been held back by downstream ridging). This trough will slowly weaken over the next 24-36 hours and finally move across the western Great Lakes region during the first half of this weekend. A band of rain showers is about all that will be left with this system by the time it gets here, mainly during the day on Saturday (as well as slightly cooler temperatures). Upper level heights increase and surface high pressure moves in on Sunday. This is expected to lead to a return to milder and rain free conditions.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

High Impact Weather . None is expected.

Forecast Concerns . How warm it will be early next week.

A nearly zonal flow aloft is expected to lead to mild temperatures while disturbances moving through the flow result in periodic rain chances next week (the April showers bring May flowers theme applies here). Cooler air then looks like it will return toward the tail end of this forecast period but not before a few spots make a run at the coveted 60 degree mark early in the week!

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1103 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

VFR conditions expected across the northern Lower MI terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. A slow approaching front will gradually have clouds beginning to thicken/lower toward the end of the TAF period, but they will still be well into the VFR category. Light winds are expected overall, with some lake wind component likely by Friday afternoon at KTVC and KAPN.

MARINE. Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Light winds tonight and Friday, as high pressure drifts slowly eastward across the area. Lake breezes will turn winds onshore again on Friday. A bit of a se breeze Fri night, ahead of cold front that swing winds nw on Saturday. Winds/waves expected to remain below advisory levels.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . PB NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . PB MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi61 min WSW 4.1 G 7 38°F 1020.7 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi61 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 39°F 1021.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi61 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 37°F 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi4.8 hrsN 610.00 miA Few Clouds48°F28°F46%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N4NE6N7NE5NE6NE7--N6
1 day agoNE5N5NE4NE5NE5NE7NE6N3CalmNE3N5N4CalmCalmNW4NE5NE4N4N5NE8N8N5NE6N8
2 days agoNW10N6N9N9N5NW3N4N4N4NE7NE10N8N9NE7NE8N5N7N8N7N7N9NE7N6N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.