Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brewer, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 3:56PM Friday December 6, 2019 1:55 PM EST (18:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:26PMMoonset 1:51AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 1111 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Rest of today..W winds up to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow showers this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds up to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Snow showers likely in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..W winds up to 10 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
ANZ100 1111 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A weak area of low pressure will move south of the waters late today and tonight. High pressure builds over the waters over the weekend with low pressure approaching from the west early next week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewer, ME
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location: 44.8, -68.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 061823 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 123 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure in Michigan will pass south of Maine this evening. High pressure will build across the region late Saturday through Sunday. A warm front will cross the region later Sunday night through early Monday. Low pressure will track northwest of the region Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 120 PM Update: Winds have been meeting forecasted values well, with occasional gusts in the north around 25mph. Cloud shield over Downeast holding together, a few fallstreak holes apparent as it advances over the northern Gulf of Maine. To the north, some radar returns appearing with prev overcast skies now moving into New Brunswick. This could produce a flurry or two, but forecast soundings show the last 2000' or so remaining quite dry, leading to some virga.

Delayed onset time for snow along coastal Downeast this evening as leading precip evaporates before making it to the surface south of our region.

Previous discussion: A tranquil day across the FA with a low height pattern and no significant weather disturbances aloft. The atmosphere dries out a bit, but a few flurries are possible early this morning across the north. Otherwise, clouds will thin out some with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be a little below average for early December with highs in the mid 20s across the Crown, around 30 degrees in the Greater Bangor Region, and near freezing along the coast. Attention by evening will turn to a low that is currently visible on satellite pictures across Michigan. The low will move rapidly east with a fast jet aloft and should be across the upper Hudson Valley of NY State by late this afternoon, and will pass quickly across the central Gulf of Maine this evening. The low deepens tonight and will pass east of Nova Scotia. The low should come close enough to produce a period of mostly light/fluffy snow on the outer islands as well as the immediate coast, but any snow will likely not make it further inland than about Ellsworth and Machias. Accumulations are expected to be an inch or less for most, but locally 2 to 3 inches may fall on the outer islands. Further inland, a partly cloudy sky is expected. Lows tonight will range from the single digits north to teens Downeast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The weekend will be on the cold side, but with no significant weather systems overall it is not looking too bad. Saturday will be the colder of the two days as low pressure deepens across the northern Maritimes and high pressure builds into NY State. This will lead to a breezy day with steep low level lapse rates below 900H and a moderate pressure gradient. Highs will be more typical of late December with low 20s north and mid to upper 20s south. The surface ridge builds into southern New England Saturday night with the ridge axis extending north into Maine. The wind will become light and even calm in many valleys, and with a clear to p/cloudy sky many northern valleys will drop below zero with single digits elsewhere. Temperatures were lowered several degrees across the northern valleys. The only exception will be on immediate shoreline roads where lows will settle into the teens.

The ridge slides east Sunday with return flow to set up with southwest flow. A weak warm front will likely produce a bit more cloud cover and perhaps a few flurries across the north with at least partial sunshine Downeast. A bit of light snow is possible in the afternoon across the Saint John Valley, but with little/no accumulation expected. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s north and mid to upper 30s Downeast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Warm advection aloft will be ongoing Sunday night as a warm front lifts from the Great Lakes and into Quebec. Light snow will be possible across the north, with the best chance across and north of the Saint John Valley. Current guidance depicts most of the QPF Sunday night into Monday to the north of the CWA with light accumulations. Precipitation will transition to freezing rain and rain during the day Monday as warm advection continues. While at least some cold air damming is expected over the Central Highlands and northern Maine, the lack of heavier precipitation at the onset should limit freezing rain accretion on elevated surfaces. Near the ground, below freezing temperatures will hang on longer due in part to the very cold night that is anticipated Saturday night. Even light precipitation Monday morning could produce a glaze of ice on roads and walkways. Top-down precipitation types were run for the Zulu day on Monday using 2 meter temperatures for the ZR/R cutoff, which may slightly underestimate freezing rain travel impacts Monday morning.

By Monday evening, low pressure will be deepening over the Eastern Great Lakes and moving northeastward into southeastern Ontario and eastern Quebec. Warm advection will be strong enough Monday night that no diurnal drop in temperatures is forecast. In fact, the NBM lows that were showing drops of 5-10 degrees across the board due to the inclusion of bias corrected guidance were thrown out and the max temperature from Monday was used as the low Monday night. PWAT values Monday night surge to over 1” across the southeast with slightly lower values across northern and western parts of the CWA. GEFS normalized anomalies indicate this is roughly 3 standard deviations above normal. The axis of heaviest rainfall still appears to be to the southeast aligning with this PWAT maxima. Over an inch of rain is possible across Coastal and Downeast Maine, with lower amounts across northern Maine. With a relatively short duration of about 36 hours in the warm sector and most of the current snowpack juxtaposed with lower QPF, widespread flooding or ice jams are not currently anticipated, but details will become clearer over the next few days. Gale conditions and significant waves are expected over the waters Monday through at least Tuesday night. Onshore flow may lead to some minor coastal flooding impacts as well, but this is still uncertain and will depend on timing of the tides and strength of the low pressure to the west.

A cold front will sweep through Tuesday night, causing a quick freeze-up of any surface liquid and potentially causing slippery conditions Wednesday morning. The GFS is showing a faster frontal passage, while the EC lags behind slightly. The 0z GFS also indicates a southern stream shortwave trough interacting with the broader trough and surface front to produce an area of snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. The NBM gave likely PoPs across portions of Coastal and Downeast Maine during this period, but uncertainty remains high due to differences in timing of multiple surface and upper level features.

Beyond Wednesday and through Thursday night, cold will be the main story as the coldest air of the season moves into the area. Euro ensemble mean temperatures are solidly in the single digits below zero for Wednesday night and Thursday night at CAR with the 0z GFS indicating 850mb temperatures around -25C and 500mb temperatures around -44C. Conditions should be mainly dry during this period with surface high pressure building in Thursday into Thursday night.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. NEAR TERM: MVFR at times early this morning at the Aroostook County terminals, otherwise mostly VFR today into tonight. A period of IFR is possible this evening at KBHB in -sn.

SHORT TERM:

Sat & Sun, VFR with possible MVFR in any -sn/-shsn Sun afternoon at KFVE.

Sunday night . VFR becoming MVFR and eventually IFR/LIFR due to lowering CIGs. A wintry mix of snow and freezing rain is possible Sunday night, mainly north of HUL with rain more likely to the south at BGR & BHB. South to southwest winds increasing especially aloft with low level wind shear possible.

Monday to Monday night . IFR to LIFR expected with rain. South to southwest winds expected with low level wind shear also possible.

Tuesday to Tuesday night . IFR to LIFR to start the period with south to southwest winds shifting west-northwest with a frontal passage overnight. Precipitation may transition to snow and prolong IFR/LIFR conditions, but uncertainty is high during this period.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect through tonight. Conditions will likely drop below SCA levels for a time this afternoon into early evening, but will pick up again tonight to SCA levels.

SHORT TERM: Borderline SCA conditions are expected this weekend, mainly Saturday and again Sunday afternoon. Conditions will likely be below SCA levels much of the time Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Winds and seas increase steadily Sunday evening, reaching gale levels. Southwest winds gusting over 40 knots continue through at least Tuesday with seas building over 10 feet offshore.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term . CB/Cornwell Short Term . CB Long Term . Strauser Aviation . CB/Cornwell Marine . CB/Cornwell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 41 mi62 min NW 8 G 13 29°F 41°F1014.1 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 53 mi112 min WNW 14 G 18 31°F 2 ft1014 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 59 mi112 min W 14 G 19 33°F 48°F3 ft1014.3 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bangor, Bangor International Airport, ME3 mi63 minW 810.00 miOvercast29°F16°F58%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBGR

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Last 24hrW3W4W3W6SW4W4NW5SW33W7W7W7W3W6NW4W5W4W4NW5NW4W6W5W7W8
1 day agoS5CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmW6
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Tide / Current Tables for Bangor, Penobscot River, Maine (2)
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Bangor
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:20 AM EST     1.85 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:51 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:05 AM EST     12.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:50 PM EST     2.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:23 PM EST     12.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.23.96.79.611.712.512.110.68.35.93.92.72.33.35.78.510.912.11210.98.86.34.1

Tide / Current Tables for South Orrington, Penobscot River, Maine
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South Orrington
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:17 AM EST     1.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:51 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:36 AM EST     11.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:47 PM EST     2.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:54 PM EST     11.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.723.35.68.110.111.211.310.38.35.83.72.42.12.94.87.29.310.711.110.58.76.34

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.