Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lincoln City, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:37PM Monday August 3, 2020 11:06 PM PDT (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:13PMMoonset 4:49AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:202008041145;;886231 Fzus56 Kpqr 032121 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 221 Pm Pdt Mon Aug 3 2020 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-041145- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 221 Pm Pdt Mon Aug 3 2020
Tonight..N wind to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog.
Tue..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the evening. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Wed..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night..SW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 4 ft. Chance of rain.
Thu night..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 5 ft.
Fri..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 6 ft.
Sat..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 7 ft.
PZZ200 221 Pm Pdt Mon Aug 3 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure builds over the northeast pacific tonight and will persists through Wednesday. Another frontal system moves across the waters late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. High pressure returns Friday, which will bring gusty afternoon and evening northerly wind through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincoln City, OR
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location: 44.93, -124.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 040432 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 932 PM PDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Updated Aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS. A mixture of morning clouds and afternoon sunshine with temperatures near to slightly above average for the next several days. Widespread light rain is expected to start late Wednesday night and persist through Thursday. Friday look for breezy conditions with temperatures close to average.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Wednesday . The morning marine clouds along the coast will continue to recede into the evening hours as shortwave ridging will build through tonight. This pattern will maintain rather clear skies inland but, expect the coast to maintain some clouds as moist onshore flow will persist. On Tuesday, expect breezy conditions across the CWA as a thermally induced trough briefly develops within the Willamette Valley, along with gusty conditions within the central and eastern part of the Columbia River Gorge and gaps along the Cascades. /42

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Monday . Models and ensembles continue to remain in overall agreement that the next system will start to slide southeast along the British-Columbia Coast starting Wednesday night. This distended trough will extend down towards the CWA and looks to provide a fair chance for rain starting Thursday. There is remains a fair amount of uncertainty between the model families as to the exact timing and amount of the precipitation but, they all do agree that there is a chance for precipitation on Thursday across the CWA.

Friday and into the weekend the forecast becomes a lot less cohesive as model families start to diverge significantly in the overall pattern. GEFS models have shortwave troughing developing Friday and persisting through Monday. While EPS models have shortwave ridging developing for the weekend and becoming more zonal by the start of next week. CMCE models develop a zonal pattern for the weekend followed by a shortwave trough for the start of next week. Taking all of this into account have chosen to go with a blend of models which has very little change if any from the NBM . Overall, what can be expected is onshore flow to persist from Friday through Monday along with closer to seasonal temperatures for the CWA. /42

AVIATION. VFR continues across the area except for the coastal strip where patches of IFR to LIFR cigs are developing. Currently from about KONP to KOTH cigs are below 1000 ft. Models show this will expand along the coast overnight and should dissipate 18-21Z Tue.

HREF model has clouds inland possibly back building off the Cascade foothills into the valley, or simply forming in the valley Tue morning. GFS BUFR soundings indicate possibly a SCT layer near 1000 ft 12-16Z Tue. The NAM BUFR was over doing it yesterday and appear so again tonight as it shows BKN-OVC during the same time period.

KPDX and APPROACHES . VFR at the terminal and vicinity. Latest HREF models indicates clouds forming along the Columbia river to near KSPB, and as mentioned above possible back building of the Cascade foothills. For now will keep PDX VFR with a SCT layer around 1000 ft, but have KTTD with a BKN layer at that level. Whatever clouds develop, should see it dissipate 18-19Z Tue. /mh

MARINE. Surface high pressure over the waters will be the dominant feature through Wed. Thermally-induced surface low pressure builds over the far south Oregon coast Wed afternoon, which will enhance the prevailing northerlies. The 12Z model guidance indicates 20-25 kt boundary layer wind speeds generally south of Cascade Head late Tue afternoon through Tue evening. At this time, will hold off on issuing an advisory. Gradients weaken Wed as a frontal system approaches the waters. Guidance indicates a narrow ribbon of 20-25 kt northwest wind gusts 12Z Thu behind the front, but looks to be short-lived. Typical summertime northerlies return Fri into the weekend for a much higher likelihood of small craft advisory level wind.

Seas are currently around 3-5 ft and will remain in this range through Wednesday. Seas look to then build to around 5-7 ft by Thursday then to around 6-8 ft later this week. Longer range guidance shows sub-10 ft seas Friday through the weekend. Weishaar

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 21 mi48 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 54°F1020.8 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 22 mi66 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 57°F
46097 25 mi136 min NNW 5.8 60°F 57°F1020.1 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 33 mi26 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 61°F 58°F1020.2 hPa60°F
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 44 mi48 min 58°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR24 mi71 minN 47.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F55°F94%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONP

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmW4NW5W6W6NW8NW9NW9N8N9N6N3N3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW4W5W7W9W6W5W3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW7NW9NW8NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Taft, Siletz Bay, Oregon
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Taft
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:57 AM PDT     6.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:05 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:55 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:20 AM PDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:32 PM PDT     5.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM PDT     1.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:42 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.56.96.65.74.32.61.1-0-0.6-0.50.51.93.54.85.65.65.14.23.22.422.234.3

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:04 AM PDT     8.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:19 AM PDT     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:39 PM PDT     6.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM PDT     2.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:42 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.68.17.86.75.13.21.3-0.1-0.8-0.60.52.245.56.56.6653.82.92.42.63.65

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.