Tuesday, June2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Omena, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 9:16PM Tuesday June 2, 2020 1:29 AM EDT (05:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:41PMMoonset 3:15AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1134 Pm Edt Mon Jun 1 2020
Overnight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Numerous showers after midnight. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202006021145;;615383 FZUS53 KAPX 020334 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1134 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-021145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI
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location: 45, -85.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 020354 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1154 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 943 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Rather nondescript area of rain cross northern MI this evening. This is occurring in a broad zone of warm advection, ahead of a cold front advancing across the northern plains. An MCV is helping to force this activity. We are seeing some signs of cellular convection along the west and sw flank of the precip area. This is occurring as the instability gradient pushes north into the area, propelled by an increasing sw-erly low level jet. Models do continue to advertise some re-development of precip along the west flank during the night, along with marginally higher localized precip rates. So, even as precip becomes less widespread, a chance for thunder emerges. This is especially the case in the sw half of the forecast area, where an axis of MuCape values up to 750j/kg folds in overnight.

Some fog can also be expected to emerge tonight, as the low levels moisten. Any marine intrusion will assist this process. Min temps will be in the 50s.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tuesday) Issued at 407 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

. Round of showers/some thunder tonight, another round late tomorrow .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal through tonight. Marginal risk for severe storms late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Larger scale mid level ridge axis/warm air sits across a large part of the CONUS, flanked by troughs through New England and along the west coast. Smaller scale short-wave has been progressing over top the ridge through the day and now sliding southeastward through Wisconsin, while a larger scale closed low is progressing into Manitoba.

At the surface, parent low is also advancing into Manitoba with a boundary that arcs to a secondary surface reflection over far western Minnesota and a warm front that extends down through far eastern Iowa. Cold front follows close behind arcing through the northern Plains. Surge of warm/moist (theta-e) air has been spreading into the upper Midwest through the day along and ahead of the surface warm front . along with an elevated instability plume that is sliding across Wisconsin and the western U.P. Showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the leading edge of the instability axis from western Lake Superior down through Wisconsin and about to cross into lake Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Shower/thunderstorm evolution remains the primary forecast concern for tonight. Another round of stronger (severe) storms is possible for late Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Surface warm front and elevated instability plume will advance north/east into and through Michigan tonight, while small scale short-wave pivots southeastward down through lower Michigan this evening. This will drive the upstream showers/some thunder across the region mainly through the course of the evening/early overnight hours, with precip diminishing overnight into early Tuesday morning.

With arrival of elevated instability axis, MUCAPE values will climb to >1000 J/kg across parts Lower Michigan along with increasing winds aloft and 0-6KM bulk shear values increasing to greater than 40 knots. This could result is a few organized storms that may need monitoring tonight. But given the time of day/elevated nature of storms . severe threat should remain minimal. However, there remains some potential for localized heavy rainfall that could be problematic in light of recent flooding issues.

Tuesday will start out fairly cloudy and likely with some fog around during the morning hours. But we should gradually clear things out from late morning through the afternoon leaving much of the state situated within a very warm/muggy warm sector while upstream cold front lays out from the western U.P. back into the Dakotas. Not much anticipated precip-wise anticipated through the day. But another round of showers/storms are expected to initiate upstream along the front midday and eventually advance eastward through Lower Michigan from late afternoon through Tuesday evening/night. Of course much will depend on how much clearing/ heating/destabilization we can muster. But there is the possibility for strong to severe storms heading into Tuesday night (see discussion below).

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 407 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning . some stronger storms may be possible Tuesday night. Main threat will be damaging wind, large hail, and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

A weak cold front associated with a low pressure system over southeastern Canada may fire off some thunderstorms and showers Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning. The best chances for thunderstorms will be Tuesday evening/night as an upper level wave moves through the forecast area . eroding any cap that may be present. Forecast soundings have 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE progged for Tuesday night. With dew points around 60 degrees, 0-6km bulk shear of 45-55 kts, moisture, and instability . some storms could become strong and possibly even severe. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be mainly south of the M-32 cooridor. Main threat would be damaging winds and large hail in any severe storms that do develop . although an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Clouds are forecast to decrease throughout the day Wednesday, but will depend on the overnight upstream convection . we may end up cloudier than what the forecast has. As long as we do clear out the clouds . shower and thunderstorm chances will once again increase Wednesday late morning to early afternoon with daytime heating and another upper level wave passing overhead. MLCAPE Wednesday afternoon is progged to be between 500-1000 J/kg. High pressure builds into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night and will produce precipitation-free weather through at least Thursday afternoon . when a weak disturbance brushes the forecast area from southern Canada. Winds will remain fairly light through Wednesday morning and become northwesterly and gusty by Wednesday afternoon and become light and variable once again Wednesday night as aforementioned high pressure moves overhead. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s . while lows will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 407 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern becomes more progressive . beginning with a deep troughing digging into the Great Lakes area and moving into the eastern coast of the United States as an amplified area of high pressure begins building in. This setup will mean active weather for northern Michigan through at least Saturday and then again for the beginning of the next work week. Daytime temperatures should be in the 70s to near 80 Friday and then cool to the upper 60s to mid 70s for the rest of the period . while lows should be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1153 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Cigs will worsen to MVFR at times overnight.

An initial area of showers is exiting ne lower MI late this evening. But, additional showers have been redeveloping overhead. That will eventually, gradually slide off to the east overnight. Little if any precip should be left by 12Z. Cigs are expected to gradually lower, but not quite as low as earlier expected. MVFR cigs are placed at times at all sites except TVC, which stays VFR overnight.

A few TSRA could try to form over parts of central lower MI Tue afternoon. However, better chances for rain will wait until evening, when showers/storms from WI may cross into nw lower MI, potentially impacting TVC/MBL with cig/vsby restrictions.

S to sw winds will be somewhat gusty at times, especially on Tuesday. LLWS at times overnight.

MARINE. Issued at 407 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Gustier south to southwest winds will result in small craft advisory conditions on much of the Lake Michigan through this evening. Winds/waves diminish overnight and remain on the lighter side through midweek.

Meanwhile, round of showers with some thunderstorms will slide down through the region this evening into the overnight hours . ending by early Tuesday morning. Another round of showers and strong storms will impact mainly Lakes Michigan and Huron Tuesday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 15 mi49 min S 7 G 14 57°F 1011.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 67 mi59 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 56°F 52°F1012.5 hPa55°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 69 mi49 min SSE 6 G 17 69°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI15 mi34 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast59°F53°F82%1012.2 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI19 mi3.6 hrsSSW 510.00 miOvercast61°F53°F75%1014 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi34 minSSE 710.00 miLight Rain58°F54°F88%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACB

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S8SW6SW6SW7W8W4SW7SW4S4SW4S7S5S4S4CalmS4S3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W8SW5SW6W6W8W8SW7
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SW7SW6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W6NW3NW4W4NW7NW9W9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.