Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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Fxus63 kapx 240131 afdapx area forecast discussion national weather service gaylord mi 931 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019 Update Issued at 931 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019 large area of strong cool canadian high pressure remains centered over the great lakes region late this evening. All diurnally- induced clouds have dissipated with sunset and loss of daytime instability... Leaving clear skies across our entire CWA attm. Winds have become light calm and combined with clear skies expect excellent radiational cooling conditions overnight. Dwpts are still in the 40s to lower 50s... Which should allow for fog development overnight into early Saturday morning. Going forecast is handling this scenario well... No major changes needed for the remainder of the night. Near term (through tonight) issued at 242 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019 Fog tonight, probably not frost... high impact weather potential... Areas of fog will be an issue for the morning. Very patchy frost is possible. Pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure has settled in over the upper great lakes. This will lead to calm winds, overnight, and clear skies. The problem then becomes whether there will be frost or fog. While locations could see frost, as some temperatures begin to fall into the mid 30s, more likely, with the dewpoints in the mid 40s to around 50, during the heat of the day, it is more likely that we will get radiation fog, which doesn't lend itself to helping us to get frost. Primary forecast concerns... Have been contemplating this since doing the aviation forecasts earlier this afternoon. Looking at the model certainty procedure for low temperatures tonight, our lows, were around the lower 10% of the forecast, with the median around 42f over the region. The colder locations east of i-75, could see a touch of frost if, and it's a big if, fog doesn't form. However, if the winds drop off and the sky clears, then with the crossover temperatures (ups fog method) up where they are, then when we get to lower 40s for low temperatures will expect that areas of fog will develop overnight. However, if the fog idea is wrong, then frost does become a possibility with our colder spots seeing temperatures close to freezing. Short term (Saturday through Monday) issued at 242 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019 Quiet weekend before inbound cold front early next week... high impact weather potential: none. Sharp 500mb ridge axis will be overhead Sat night. Associated surface high pressure will be to the east, over new england, but with ridging extending back into northern mi. That will keep return flow relatively weak and dry, at least initially. The pressure gradient does eventually tighten, between the departing high, and an incoming cold front that reaches the upper ms valley Monday afternoon. Warm moist advection, when combined with falling heights aloft, will result in precip chances returning on Monday. Saturday into Sunday night continues to look very quiet, and ideal for a range of outdoor activities. Our airmass is less cool and relatively drier on Saturday, with building mid-level heights. Do not expect as much diurnal CU Saturday, though there will still be

some, especially in NE lower mi. Even less CU will be seen Sunday, with a warming and not yet moistening airmass. MAX temps low-mid 70s Saturday, 75-80f Sunday. Min temps still cool Sat night, mainly 40s to around 50f. Milder Sun night, 50s to around 60f. Initial height falls start to kick in Monday. Models have trended a little faster with potential precip onset Monday, in particular lifting a southern stream shortwave into the southern lakes a bit quicker. The ECMWF does not actually quite spit out QPF here Monday, but does so downstate. Though continue to favor a touch of slowing compared to blended model guidance, the idea of some showers sneaking in during the day (especially in the afternoon) remains reasonable. Should still be enough heating to warm temps nicely despite increasing clouds, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80f. Long term (Monday night through Friday) issued at 242 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019 cold frontal passage still appears most likely early Tuesday, with showers likely Monday night. The parent forcing shortwave is taking on a neutral or even negative tilt, ahead of a deepening upper low over S central canada. This may will to generate or maintain instability more than one might expect, given the unfavorable time of day of fropa. So perhaps a thunder mention is not entirely unreasonable. Also at least some potential for decent rainfall totals in spots, not unwelcome given the month has been dry. Monday night, pre-fropa, looks rather mild. The upper low translates eastward before ejecting northward, so heights don't crash particularly low in the northern lakes. Highs looks to be mainly in the 70s, perhaps easing back into the upper 60s in some spots late in the week. The occasional shortwave may also pose a small risk for showers, mainly in the Wed thru fri timeframe. Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening) issued at 700 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019 cool canadian high pressure will hold over the upper mississippi valley and the great lakes region thru the weekend... Maintain dry weather and mainly clear skies. Areas of fog will develop overnight into early Saturday morning... Dropping vsbys to ifr at times. Otherwise...VFR conditions this evening and most of Saturday after the early morning fog quickly dissipates as daytime mixing begins. Light calm winds tonight into early Saturday will become N NE at around 10 kts on Saturday. Marine Issued at 242 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019 tonight through Sunday... High pressure remains over the region through Saturday night bringing light winds over the region through Sunday morning. As the high moves off to the east, Sunday, the pressure gradient will tighten up, and winds will increase. Small craft criteria winds will be possible by Sunday afternoon and early evening. Apx watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lh... None. Lm... None. Ls... None. Update... Mr near term... Jl short term... Jz long term... Jz aviation... Mr marine... Jl

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	15 mi	93 min	NE 13 G 15	65°F			1025.7 hPa
45183	19 mi	43 min	ENE 9.7 G 12	66°F	67°F		1027.1 hPa
45022	35 mi	33 min	NE 12 G 14	62°F	69°F	1 ft	1026.6 hPa	53°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	67 mi	61 min	N 12 G 14	60°F	68°F		1026.3 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	69 mi	33 min	E 1.9 G 4.1	60°F			1026.1 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI	15 mi	18 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	50°F	48°F	95%	1026.1 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI	19 mi	20 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	53°F	48°F	83%	1025.7 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI	24 mi	37 min	NE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	63°F	50°F	64%	1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACB

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.