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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 140221 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 921 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 921 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Low pressure has reached the far northern shore of Lake Michigan late this evening. Trailing cold front extends southward along our Lake Michigan shoreline. Area of light snow behind the cold front is now pushing thru Wisconsin . the easter edge of which appears to be holding together a bit better than expected. Have made some minor upward adjustments to POPs for far NW Lower Michigan over the next few hours as the low continues to push thru the Straits. Any light precip that does reach this area over the next few hours should be generally light drizzle to light freezing drizzle and should have very little impact. Eastern Upper Michigan will continue to experience periodic light freezing drizzle . again with not much in the way of impact. Areas of fog will generally expand into portions of North Central Lower Michigan overnight as the boundary layer continues to cool. Overnight lows will mainly fall into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 317 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Some freezing drizzle threat eastern Upper?

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early afternoon surface analysis shows a nearly stationary northeast-southwest boundary pretty much bisecting the forecast area. Boundary fairly evident across southeast Upper with DRM at 38/37 while to the north temperatures are still in the upper 20s with a good bit of freezing fog reported. A clipper low was located over southeast North Dakota . though it is trailing its supporting short wave trough which is spinning across Minnesota. A narrow band of radar returns was crossing the Mississippi River between the Minnesota short wave trough and a second over northern Missouri Overcast skies across northern Michigan this afternoon. some fog to the west of the stationary boundary over eastern Upper as mentioned above and along the northwest Lower shoreline counties . some drizzle/flurries/freezing fog also occurring over these same areas. Higher cloud ceilings exist over northeast Lower.

Pressure pattern flattens out across Michigan tonight . between Dakotas clipper low which looks to fall apart as its upper support moves away . and a developing east coast low for Saturday. Light boundary layer flow most of the night will eventually become northwesterly Saturday morning and begin to strengthen as pressure gradient tightens due to downstream surface low development.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Linger low level moisture and light flow should bring about some lowering of clouds bases along/behind the stationary boundary . with some signal for fog expansion farther into Lower Michigan. Low level moisture profile across eastern Upper into northwest Lower still suggestive of some drizzle/freezing drizzle potential . after coordinating with MQT will keep that threat going across eastern Upper. Current advisory drops off at 5pm and am inclined to let that go at forecast issuance time and see how things develop this evening. Band of radar echoes moving into northwest Wisconsin will likely thin with time . not expecting much of a chance of precipitation tonight with that feature given general synoptic scale subsidence expected. Temperatures overnight expected to dip into the 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 317 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Light drizzle followed by lake effect snow .

Synopsis: The weekend begins with a longwave trough advancing across the southeastern CONUS with a much more subtle shortwave moving into the Great Lakes region. A cyclone will develop and strengthen somewhat rapidly underneath favorable upper-level dynamics/forcing as it moves to the northeast along the Atlantic coast. Surface high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains underneath subsidence aloft. An isallobaric response in the wind field generated by these two systems helps drive enhanced northwest winds into the area by Saturday evening.

Details: Lingering drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible into the afternoon on Saturday as saturated low-level profiles warmer than -10 C suggest lower probabilities of cloud ice formation. As previously mentioned, northwest winds are expected to pick up going into the evening hours. This cold air advection will cool the near surface profile with time, creating an environment much more conducive for cloud ice formation. With low-level moistening and 850mb temps creeping into the DGZ going into Saturday night, some lake effect snow is expected in typical northwest flow belt areas. Since depth of moisture/inversion heights and duration of favorable winds aren't overly impressive, snowfall totals of 1-2" for most are currently expected into Sunday morning with locally higher amounts possible within heavier, more organized lake effect bands. Winds shift more westerly throughout the day Sunday, but little accumulation is expected at this time as favorable lake effect ingredients will be departing the forecast area.

Otherwise, overcast/mostly cloudy conditions are expected through the weekend as temperatures begin to fall into Saturday evening. Lows Sunday morning will mostly be in the upper teens to low 20s across northern lower with portions of eastern upper dipping down into the low teens overnight. Temperatures will warm up a few degrees Sunday afternoon into the low to mid 20s across the area.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 317 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Main Concerns: Lake effect snow mid-week

As the previously mentioned trough/cyclone departs the CONUS to the northeast heading into Monday, another longwave trough is expected to move across the southern US and support the development of another cyclone. While differing model solutions exist, this system will most likely move across the Ohio River valley and have focused impacts to our south and east. Some parts of the forecast area could see snow directly related to this cyclone, but any accumulations are expected to be light and the forecast path could still change as we are still a few days away. Regardless, the main focus of the time period will be additional lake effect snow mid-week with west/northwest winds provided between this cyclone as it moves northeast and high pressure that once again builds across the northern Great Plains. This should keep temps in the teens and 20s for most of the week before potentially warming up some as next weekend approaches.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 607 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Low pressure currently centered along the southern shore of Lake Superior will very slowly exit east away from Michigan over the next 24 hours. Ample low level moisture resulting in plenty of low stratus and fog will maintain low MVFR/IFR conditions across all of Northern Lower Michigan thru Saturday. There is a chance of some drizzle/freezing drizzle this evening around the Straits (PLN). Light/calm winds tonight will become NW at around 10 kts on Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 317 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

No issues tonight as pressure gradient flattens . but with an east coast low ramping up overnight into Saturday pressure gradient with tighten up with increasing northwest winds as Saturday progresses. Widespread Small Craft Advisories appear likely by at least Saturday evening . SCA conditions may linger along the northeast Lower nearshore zones into Sunday afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . JPB SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MR MARINE . JPB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	15 mi	74 min	W 5.1 G 8	37°F			1010.8 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	67 mi	60 min	S 1.9 G 1.9	33°F	36°F		1009.6 hPa	33°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	69 mi	74 min	W 4.1 G 5.1	34°F			1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI	15 mi	59 min	N 0	0.50 mi	Fog	33°F	32°F	97%	1009.8 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI	19 mi	61 min	SW 3	2.00 mi	Light Drizzle Fog/Mist	35°F	32°F	89%	1010.2 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI	24 mi	58 min	N 0	2.50 mi	Fog/Mist	34°F	32°F	95%	1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACB

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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