Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 010756 CCA AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Gaylord MI 256 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 208 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal. Possible minor snow accumulation over the coastline of Lake Huron. Gusty again with potential lakeshore flooding in portions of NW and NE lower Michigan.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A closed off upper low embedded within larger scale troughing was seen from the Great Lakes down to the SE states early this morning, while an associated deep sfc low pressure was in the NE states. Most of the forcing with this system was pressing through New England, but there is some theta-e convergence, deeper moisture and DPVA wrapping around the northern and western flank of the system, that was resulting in light snow across SE lower Michigan through the thumb and over Lake Huron. Here in nrn Michigan, skies remained cloudy, with lake effect clouds/moisture stuck under an inversion. The exception was across portions of eastern Chip/Mack counties, where N/NNE flow downsloping off the higher terrain of Ontario, has cleared out the skies. Upstream, a core of deeper drier air and clear skies were seen out ahead of mid level ridging Upper Midwest and Plains.

The deep upper and sfc low pressures become stacked as they track into SE Quebec through tonight, and some of the aforementioned forcing and deeper moisture do still try and make a run at far NE lower Michigan today. However, it's a bit further east than previously expected. As a result, the forecast snow amounts have gone down. As a matter of fact, most model solutions do not even have any snow falling there today. Fcst soundings from the NAM/GFS certainly agree, as they show deep dry mid level air between roughly 3500 feet and 15000 feet. If that's the case, yeah, no snow will fall. Have left a little bit of a door opened for something to fall, but can't go any more than a few tenths at best, from Alpena south to Tawas City.

Meanwhile, the deeper drier/and warmer low level air upstream will be edging it's way eastward through the day and night, and will gradually clear out skies from west to east with time. The arrival of this air mass, downsloping off Ontario, and smaller fetch length across eastern upper, will likely result in the earliest clearing. This could be before daybreak for all of eastern upper, western areas of Chip/Mack counties will still likely see some residual lake effect this morning. Clouds clear in NW lower by late morning/early afternoon (extended clouds longer than models, as this is typical). The addition of higher level clouds with the lake effect in NE lower will likely lead to clearing not until this evening.

We will still have a tight pressure gradient over the region, which will lead to an easy 25 to 35 mph gusts again. This combined with high water levels could lead to continued coastal lakeshore flooding for much of NW lower and portions of NE lower.

High temperatures will mostly be in the low to mid 30s, with lows tonight largely in the mid and upper 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 208 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Wednesday morning, well-advertised vertically stacked low pressure is expected to be centered across far southwestern Quebec, gradually shifting northward to east of James Bay by Wednesday evening. Another well-defined shortwave is progged to pinwheel around the backside of this departing system . taking aim at the western Great Lakes region Thursday into Thursday night. However, while all this occurs to our northeast, another closed low is expected to be digging across the southern plains, eventually headed toward the Ohio Valley late this work week. While latest trends continue to suggest these waves remain separate, there is an outside chance that if the timing is just right that these two waves could phase across center of the country, perhaps resulting in a more notable storm system late in the week. This solution is certainly low confidence and low probability at this point, but worth at least the mention of the possibility.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Continued breeziness Wednesday. Isolated-scattered snow showers possible late Thursday - Thursday night?

Despite precip chances Wednesday being next to nil as the aforementioned system continues to depart to the northeast, occasionally gusty northwest winds will remain the rule - highest near the Lake Huron shoreline before the pressure gradient eventually relaxes Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Lots of sun expected area-wide on Wednesday with high temperatures climbing some 5 or so degrees above early December normals . ranging from the mid-30s across the coolest spots to the upper 30s - low 40s across the vast majority of the forecast area. Light west winds Wednesday night around 5-10 kts and a slow uptick in mid-high cloud should prevent radiational cooling from getting too out of hand, but certainly could envision some of the interior icebox locations falling to the upper teens to low 20s.

The next wave is progged to approach the western Great Lakes from the north during the day Thursday into Thursday night. Expecting much of the day to remain precipitation-free under partly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-upper 30s. Only possible blemish through this time frame surrounds the late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night time frame as increased mid-upper level forcing for ascent may prove to overcome paltry moisture fields to kick off a few snow showers. Nothing widespread or impactful is expected out of this, but could foresee a few areas waking up Friday morning to a fresh dusting of snow.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Monday) Issued at 208 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Low confidence prevails through much of the long term forecast period as deterministic/ensemble global guidance continues to struggle with the overall pattern evolution beyond Friday. Either way you slice it, it does look look like a fairly active/progressive pattern across the CONUS, but to what extent we see impacts (if any at all) remain anything but muddy at this time. The primary focus revolves around the late-weekend time frame, but as was alluded to, guidance differs on the handling of a closed low across the southern plains with the envelope of solutions ranging from it completely cutting off from the parent flow to it merging with additional northern stream energy and kicking up a larger storm system east of the Mississippi River. Expect details should gradually be ironed out over the next several days.

Otherwise, near to slightly above normal temperatures anticipated throughout the bulk of the long-term forecast period.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1149 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

A deep low pressure system will work through the NE conus today, then into Quebec tonight. Outside of some possible rain and snow around APN Tuesday, the weather will turn more quiet Tuesday night and over the next several days. Brisk/gusty north winds will back more out of the NW Tuesday and Tuesday night, while MVFR CIGS will gradually disappear from west to east as drier air works into nrn Michigan.

MARINE. Issued at 208 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

A deep low pressure system will work through the NE conus today, then into Quebec tonight through Wednesday night. This system will likely bring some rain and snow to Lake Huron and possibly the St. Mary's river system today. Otherwise, the weather will turn quiet later tonight and over the next several days. The pressure gradient will remain tight through Wednesday, especially over Lake Huron. This will continue to result in gales today and tonight all areas, and mainly over Whitefish Bay down through Lake Huron Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ018-020- 021-024>026-031-099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ345-346. GALE WARNING from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ345-346. GALE WARNING until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ347>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ341. GALE WARNING from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ341. GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ321-322. GALE WARNING from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	15 mi	84 min	NNE 20 G 25	34°F			1014.2 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	67 mi	46 min	NNW 9.9 G 16	25°F	41°F		1012 hPa	19°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	69 mi	24 min	N 20 G 28	34°F			1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

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NW11 G16

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1 day ago

SW8 G11

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W13 G21

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W8 G15

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SW7 G11

SW12 G15

SW15 G21

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W17 G24

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SW13 G22

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SW9 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI	15 mi	69 min	N 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	29°F	21°F	74%	1012.5 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI	19 mi	71 min	N 12 G 19	10.00 mi	Overcast	31°F	21°F	69%	1013.2 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI	24 mi	69 min	N 13 G 19	10.00 mi	Overcast	29°F	23°F	79%	1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACB

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)

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N9 G14

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1 day ago

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2 days ago

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SW8 G16

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SW7 G14

SW7 G21

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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