Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Egg Harbor, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:41PM Sunday July 5, 2020 1:54 AM CDT (06:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:27PMMoonset 5:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 926 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 4 2020
Rest of tonight..SE wind around 5 kts veering sw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sunday..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
Monday..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
LMZ521 Expires:202007051015;;332542 FZUS53 KGRB 050226 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 926 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-541>543-051015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egg Harbor, WI
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location: 45.09, -87.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 050334 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

A very warm stretch of weather is anticipated for the next week, and it will be quite humid at times. Thunderstorms are possible at times as well, especially during the mid-late afternoon and early evening hours.

The blocking regime which dominated North America during the past week was transitioning to a more typical mid-summer pattern with the subtropical ridge stretched out across the southern CONUS. A modest, fairly low-amplitude belt of westerlies will exist to the north, from the Pacific Northwest across the far northern CONUS and southern Canada.

The pattern favors above normal temperatures, with readings probably 8-12 F degrees above normal on most days. It will be humid at times as dew point temperatures creep up into the lower 70s on some days, though at this point a prolonged period of oppressively hot and humid conditions seems unlikely. Rain chances will be tied to diurnal destabilization and the propagation of minor shortwaves through the area. Timing (other than diurnally- driven changes) of precipitation chances will be challenging. Precipitation amounts are likely to vary considerably. Convection will be slow moving and efficient, so those locations affected by more than one or two rounds of storms will likely receive above normal amounts. Other areas may remain relatively dry.

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Sunday Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

The main forecast challenge remains exactly where convection will fire on Sunday as the very warm/humid conditions to continue until further notice.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a pretty non-descript pattern over the Great Lakes with no discernible frontal boundaries and very weak areas of high and low pressure moving through the region. Daytime heating has been the main catalyst for afternoon thunderstorm development and it is occurring again today with radar imagery indicating isolated to scattered storms over northwest and southwest WI. Temperatures away from Lake MI were again well into the 80s to around 90 degrees.

Anticipate the diurnally-driven convection to gradually diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. This would leave mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds and another mild/ muggy night across the forecast area. Once again, there could be some patchy ground fog toward daybreak. Little change in air mass will keep min temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s north, middle to upper 60s south.

While the upper ridge to remain parked over the Upper Midwest/ western Great Lakes on Sunday, some models indicate a mid-level shortwave will top the ridge and move into northern sections of the Great Lakes during the late morning into the afternoon. This shortwave, combined with increasing instability from daytime heating, could be enough to provide a bit more areal coverage to thunderstorm activity, especially over northern WI. Still cannot rule out isolated storms elsewhere, especially off of any outflow or lake breeze boundaries. Shear remains weak, thus anticipate pulse-type storms which could generate torrential downpours and brief gusty winds. Max temperatures may be a little tricky on Sunday depending on the extent of the precipitation. Until this pattern breaks, will run near persistence which translates to middle 80s near Lake MI, upper 80s to lower 90s inland.

LONG TERM. Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

A weakening frontal boundary will sag into the area by Monday night. A weak mid-level shortwave is also likely to arrive during the night and linger into Tuesday. The presence of these features will lead to an increased chance for convection, though the timing of their arrival (at least on the current guidance) is unlikely to coincide with the most unstable conditions. Preferred to keep PoPs in the chance category for now--at least until some of the uncertainty regarding the most favorable timing and location can be resolved.

The other period that looks more favorable for convection is Thursday into Thursday night as a somewhat higher amplitude shortwave heads into the area. Would have preferred to keep this period with chance PoPs as well as timing may yet change, but the standard forecast initialization grids came in with low-end likely PoPs. Thats only a little higher than preferred, so stuck with them for now.

AVIATION. for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. Patchy ground fog is still possible late tonight into early Sunday morning as high moisture content in the air and light winds to persist. The best chance for fog appears to be at KMTW and KAUW where some fog has already formed late this evening. The patchy fog could lower conditions to MVFR/IFR at times.

A bit more coverage in showers/storms by Sunday afternoon, especially across the north as a mid-level shortwave moves through northern sections of the Great Lakes. However, confidence and coverage are too low to include in this set of TAFs. The most likely site to include thunder in subsequent issuances would be KRHI. Any thunderstorms will have the capability of producing very heavy rain and brief gusty winds Sunday afternoon.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Skowronski SHORT TERM . Kallas LONG TERM . Skowronski AVIATION . Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi54 min S 5.1 G 7 77°F 75°F1015.5 hPa (+0.0)70°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 19 mi74 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 72°F 1015.2 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 45 mi54 min Calm G 2.9 71°F 1015.8 hPa (+0.0)
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 47 mi74 min Calm G 0 68°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI19 mi58 minS 410.00 miFair70°F66°F90%1015.8 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi58 minN 08.00 miFair71°F68°F90%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4NE5E4E3NE44CalmN3S44N5E5E6E5S4E6SE6SE3S4S3S4S3S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmN5N5N3N5N9N9CalmE65E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE3W6CalmSW3SW3SW6W6W7W6W9W7W7W9W8W7W5N4N3NW5CalmCalmCalmN3N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.